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@YardsPerPass interview on WGR - why he’s talked himself into Josh Allen


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I rarely post here and I’m not gonna go all JP Losman on Josh Allen, but I do want to go on record here before these guys careers start to unfold.

 

Throughout the process I ranked my favorite QB prospects as such:

 

1. Mayfield 

2. Darnold 

3. Rosen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph 

6. Allen

 

As evidenced by these rankings I hated the pick. I still do, even though like most fans I did my best to watch more game film and especially his offseason work where he seemed to excel most. I’m trying to be hopeful and optimistic, but I can’t ignore my initial thoughts on the kid. 

 

JP Losman had accuracy issues and I was hard on him from the start for that very reason. To me accuracy should be the last issue a young QB prospect should have. Especially a first rounder. I’d be shocked if Allen can overcome those issues.

 

Many ppl bring up the accuracy percentage issue, but ignore the yards he had last year. 1800. I mean that is the most alarming statistic if you ask me. 

 

There are other red flags as well. Inner clock seems to be off, escapes the pocket too early and he couldn’t put up great stats against weaker competition. 

 

And yes I’ve heard all the excuses. He had a weak supporting cast. His line stunk. He was asked to throw the ball downfield more than the others (not true). His WRs dropped balls. Well when I compared him to the rest of the QBs on my list his drops were actually less than those others. 

 

Personally I prefer the more cerebral type QBs that don’t have the cannon and athleticism to rely on. The Brady, Manning and Montana types. They win more SBs than the Favre, Rodgers, Kelly, Elway, Big Ben and Marino types. 11-6 in rings to be exact and that’s only 3 QBs vs six. 

 

I hope I’m wrong. I’m cheering for the kid. I really am. Hopefully his issues were related to his footwork and he cleaned it up, but I have my reservations. We passed up Mahomes, Watson and Rosen for him and also paid two second round picks for him. He has a lot to live up to. I hope I can eat my words someday soon. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Justice said:

I rarely post here and I’m not gonna go all JP Losman on Josh Allen, but I do want to go on record here before these guys careers start to unfold.

 

Throughout the process I ranked my favorite QB prospects as such:

 

1. Mayfield 

2. Darnold 

3. Rosen

4. Jackson

5. Rudolph 

6. Allen

 

As evidenced by these rankings I hated the pick. I still do, even though like most fans I did my best to watch more game film and especially his offseason work where he seemed to excel most. I’m trying to be hopeful and optimistic, but I can’t ignore my initial thoughts on the kid. 

 

JP Losman had accuracy issues and I was hard on him from the start for that very reason. To me accuracy should be the last issue a young QB prospect should have. Especially a first rounder. I’d be shocked if Allen can overcome those issues.

 

Many ppl bring up the accuracy percentage issue, but ignore the yards he had last year. 1800. I mean that is the most alarming statistic if you ask me. 

 

There are other red flags as well. Inner clock seems to be off, escapes the pocket too early and he couldn’t put up great stats against weaker competition. 

 

And yes I’ve heard all the excuses. He had a weak supporting cast. His line stunk. He was asked to throw the ball downfield more than the others (not true). His WRs dropped balls. Well when I compared him to the rest of the QBs on my list his drops were actually less than those others. 

 

Personally I prefer the more cerebral type QBs that don’t have the cannon and athleticism to rely on. The Brady, Manning and Montana types. They win more SBs than the Favre, Rodgers, Kelly, Elway, Big Ben and Marino types. 11-6 in rings to be exact and that’s only 3 QBs vs six. 

 

I hope I’m wrong. I’m cheering for the kid. I really am. Hopefully his issues were related to his footwork and he cleaned it up, but I have my reservations. We passed up Mahomes, Watson and Rosen for him and also paid two second round picks for him. He has a lot to live up to. I hope I can eat my words someday soon. 

 

 

 

 

 

How did the Bills pass on Mahomes and Watson for Allen? Allen wasn't even in the mix. And if you have not read everything I or a few others put out on Allen, then you will never understand or refuse to understand why his numbers are what they are. I get tired of repeating the same old thing to every Lucy Lou who comes on here late and repeats all the same old crap that has been put to bed. You obviously don't know anything about the team or offense he was in. Or about his OC, or you wouldn't babble about the same old stuff.

 

I think you are just one more guy who is negative about him who will be proven wrong. If you want to know the real story on him then follow closely on some of these threads. I and some others have laid out some pretty defining points. At least read them before closing your mind to the possibility that you could be wrong. I would have loved to see Allen playing for that Oklahoma team. They would have been the national champions if they had him. Mayfield disappared in the 2nd half of the Georgia game. But no one brings that up. How about Darnold in his last game? Rosen? Oh , that's right, he didn't play in his bowl game. What did Allen do in 1 quarter? 3 TD's in the 1st quarter. And then the OC did what he always does to Allen, takes the air out of the ball. Has him hand it off on 1st and 2nd down and depending on where the ball is at on 3rd down, either has Allen run it for short yardage. Or pass on 3rd and long. The offense was very predictable to say the least. And his line sucked and Allen was the best back on the team by far. You don't know the situation he was in, but you think you do. Good luck with that. Thank you for being kind in your post. It was a nice read even if it was wrong.

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2 hours ago, BB@Shooter said:

 

How did the Bills pass on Mahomes and Watson for Allen? Allen wasn't even in the mix. And if you have not read everything I or a few others put out on Allen, then you will never understand or refuse to understand why his numbers are what they are. I get tired of repeating the same old thing to every Lucy Lou who comes on here late and repeats all the same old crap that has been put to bed. You obviously don't know anything about the team or offense he was in. Or about his OC, or you wouldn't babble about the same old stuff.

 

I think you are just one more guy who is negative about him who will be proven wrong. If you want to know the real story on him then follow closely on some of these threads. I and some others have laid out some pretty defining points. At least read them before closing your mind to the possibility that you could be wrong. I would have loved to see Allen playing for that Oklahoma team. They would have been the national champions if they had him. Mayfield disappared in the 2nd half of the Georgia game. But no one brings that up. How about Darnold in his last game? Rosen? Oh , that's right, he didn't play in his bowl game. What did Allen do in 1 quarter? 3 TD's in the 1st quarter. And then the OC did what he always does to Allen, takes the air out of the ball. Has him hand it off on 1st and 2nd down and depending on where the ball is at on 3rd down, either has Allen run it for short yardage. Or pass on 3rd and long. The offense was very predictable to say the least. And his line sucked and Allen was the best back on the team by far. You don't know the situation he was in, but you think you do. Good luck with that. Thank you for being kind in your post. It was a nice read even if it was wrong.

Mahomes and Watson obviously weren’t in this draft but we did have a shot at both last year and we let them go. In return we got Tre and Tremaine and those two will play a part in whether it was a wise move or not, but I think we can all agree QB trumps all. 

 

Great stats in college doesn’t mean you’ll be great in the pros, but since when have we ever seen a QB with bad numbers, and I mean really bad, improve in the pros? Honest question. I racked my head trying to find that answer and couldn’t. 

 

I haven’t visited this site in a very long time. I spend whatever time I do spend on PPP, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t spent time debating all these QBs with my friends for days on end. I’ve heard it all. The things I haven’t heard from anyone is he’s great at timing and anticipation. Two traits I cherish in a QB. 

 

I hope you’re right. I really do. I see what the Bills like in JA too. They’re certainly shooting for the stars and for that I commend them. When he passes on the run he looks like Aaron Rodgers. He shows glimpses of greatness. We need to make sure it’s consistent. 

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8 hours ago, Scorp83 said:

There's no way most of the fanbase didn't want this guy before the draft...now that we have him...people want to ignore everything & talk themselves into him being good?? If you don't find nothing wrong with that... then yea...its being naive 

 

It's called group-think. Allen was (is) a victim of a growing nerd movement in the football world. The nerds used him as the symbol of the old-school scouting mentality and the enemy of the moneyball method. "Big arm quarterback with bad stats is the potential #1 overall pick - let me show you why the NFL scouts are WRONG!" The nerds used Twitter to destroy his reputation and the general public swallowed it up because all they saw was negative negative negative.

 

Don't overestimate the knowledge and wisdom of the common fan.

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7 hours ago, Justice said:

 

JP Losman had accuracy issues and I was hard on him from the start for that very reason. To me accuracy should be the last issue a young QB prospect should have. Especially a first rounder. I’d be shocked if Allen can overcome those issues.

 

Many ppl bring up the accuracy percentage issue, but ignore the yards he had last year. 1800. I mean that is the most alarming statistic if you ask me. 

 

There are other red flags as well. Inner clock seems to be off, escapes the pocket too early and he couldn’t put up great stats against weaker competition. 

 

And yes I’ve heard all the excuses. He had a weak supporting cast. His line stunk. He was asked to throw the ball downfield more than the others (not true). His WRs dropped balls. Well when I compared him to the rest of the QBs on my list his drops were actually less than those others. 

 

 

Yes, such horrible accuracy, timing, and anticipation. 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Justice said:

 

 

since when have we ever seen a QB with bad numbers, and I mean really bad, improve in the pros? 

 

 

Matt Ryan is one recent example. I'm sure there are others but Allen's situation is so rare.

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3 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Yes, such horrible accuracy, timing, and anticipation. 

 

 

 

 

Matt Ryan is one recent example. I'm sure there are others but Allen's situation is so rare.

If Allen was not a late-bloomer from a tiny California farm town, he would not have had to go the Juco to Wyoming route.  His partcular history is rare.  A counter-history is necessarily speculative, but I do believe that had Allen been in a top program, his numbers would have been significantly better and he would have gone first overall to Cleveland.

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3 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Yes, such horrible accuracy, timing, and anticipation. 

 

 

 

 

Matt Ryan is one recent example. I'm sure there are others but Allen's situation is so rare.

Matt Ryan didnt have really bad numbers at BC.

 

Kid threw the ball 654 times his final season at BC. Completing 59% is not that bad considering how often he was throwing it. Also leads to inflated INT numbers.

 

Mahomes and Mayfield never eclipsed over 600 attempts in a season and they come from Air Raid styled offenses.

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4 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Yes, such horrible accuracy, timing, and anticipation. 

 

 

 

 

Matt Ryan is one recent example. I'm sure there are others but Allen's situation is so rare.

Allow me to help you for a second. Not one of those passes are a timing route. Timing routes are passes that are thrown before a WR makes his break. 

 

Matt threw for 4500 yards and 31 TDs his senior year. 

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5 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

It's called group-think. Allen was (is) a victim of a growing nerd movement in the football world. The nerds used him as the symbol of the old-school scouting mentality and the enemy of the moneyball method. "Big arm quarterback with bad stats is the potential #1 overall pick - let me show you why the NFL scouts are WRONG!" The nerds used Twitter to destroy his reputation and the general public swallowed it up because all they saw was negative negative negative.

 

Don't overestimate the knowledge and wisdom of the common fan.

 

You can call it group think if you want. Some of us are not on twitter, aren't subject to American sports radio day after day and judged Josh Allen the same way we judge everyone else - his tape. 

 

Now I have accepted before that Allen is kind of the anthithesis of my quarterback profile. I am not a big "ceiling guy". One of the key questions I ask with every player I look at let alone Quarterback is "what is he in the NFL if he is the same player in the league that he is on tape?" I tend as a result to be lower on the high ceiling with issues guys. Maybe if I worked in the NFL as an evaluator (not suggesting I am good enough to do that) I would be too risk averse as a result. So I accept the questions the Bills are asking themsleves are probably not the same questions I ask myself. 

 

I hope more than anything they are right on Josh Allen. But just dismissing everyone who expresses concerns about his chances of being a Franchise QB as being subject to group think or as not having engaged with the other side's arguments about the reasons for some of his struggles is getting pretty tiresome. 

 

Each side should be capable of expressing their opinion and seeing how it plays out without being labelled by the other side of the debate. 

 

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I wanted Mayfield or Darnold. I did not want Allen.

The reality of the situation, though, is that the Bills did not have a shot at Mayfield or Darnold. Mayfield went number one, and all indications are that Gettleman wasn't going to trade out of the second pick for anything because he loved Barkley. Darnold went third to the Jets.

So looking at what actually happened on draft day, the Bills had the following to choose from: Allen, Rosen, Jackson, or Rudolph. 

Seeing Allen's intangibles, physical upside, and team fit (particularly vs the team fit of, say, Josh Rosen), I see why the Bills made the decision they did.

As to weighing whether or not the made the right decision: If any of the quarterbacks drafted AFTER Josh Allen turn out to have better careers than he does, then Beane made the wrong call. I don't think comparing Allen's career to Darnold's or Mayfield's will have any relevance. It can be argued that Allen's career should also be evaluated against Watson and Mahomes', since they were both available for the Bills last year. However, things don't happen in a vacuum. The full truth of the situation is that McDermott knew Whaley was in a lame duck year and that the team would be bringing in a new general manager and scouting staff in a few months, and he likely didn't want to base his shot at head coach on the quarterback selection of a general manager and scouting team he didn't know or trust. Personally, I wanted the Bills to select Deshaun Watson last year. I understand why they didn't, though. I understand McDermott's line of thinking. 

Above all, now that things have shaken out the way they have...I will root as hard as anyone for Josh Allen to succeed. I will root for him to win the Bills a championship and make the Hall of Fame. I have not, however, "talked myself into" him. I just can't. I'll let his play do the talking, and hopefully it has something good to say.

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54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You can call it group think if you want. Some of us are not on twitter, aren't subject to American sports radio day after day and judged Josh Allen the same way we judge everyone else - his tape. 

 

Now I have accepted before that Allen is kind of the anthithesis of my quarterback profile. I am not a big "ceiling guy". One of the key questions I ask with every player I look at let alone Quarterback is "what is he in the NFL if he is the same player in the league that he is on tape?" I tend as a result to be lower on the high ceiling with issues guys. Maybe if I worked in the NFL as an evaluator (not suggesting I am good enough to do that) I would be too risk averse as a result. So I accept the questions the Bills are asking themsleves are probably not the same questions I ask myself. 

 

I hope more than anything they are right on Josh Allen. But just dismissing everyone who expresses concerns about his chances of being a Franchise QB as being subject to group think or as not having engaged with the other side's arguments about the reasons for some of his struggles is getting pretty tiresome. 

 

Each side should be capable of expressing their opinion and seeing how it plays out without being labelled by the other side of the debate. 

 

I certainly think you're a bright fella with a reasonable criteria.  I suspect you have to project and gamble more than you appear willing to do, but I'm no expert.  So, I don't dismiss all criticism or alternative views.  All the same, imo the negative response on this board is due to significant reliance on the kind of nerd blogger analytics alluded to.

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1 hour ago, Justice said:

Allow me to help you for a second. Not one of those passes are a timing route. Timing routes are passes that are thrown before a WR makes his break. 

 

Matt threw for 4500 yards and 31 TDs his senior year. 

 

Leading a receiver perfectly into a throw in stride is anticipation. The quarterback is anticipating where the receiver will be when the ball reaches his hands and throws it to that spot.

 

Re: "timing routes" - please show me all the timing routes Allen missed on at Wyoming. I'll wait.

 

As for Ryan, he finished 61st in the country in passer rating. Besides the fact that Ryan offensive coordinator as BC liked to pass the ball a lot, the statistical differences between Ryan and Allen in college are minimal. Both had relatively poor numbers (for various reasons) considering they were both top NFL prospects.

 

Matt Ryan vs. Josh Allen

 

Touchdown Percentage

 

Allen - 5.2

Ryan - 4.7

 

Interception Percentage

 

Allen - 2.4

Ryan - 2.9

 

Completion Percentage

 

Ryan - 59.3

Allen - 56.2

 

Yards Per Attempt

 

Ryan - 6.9

Allen - 6.6

 

Passer Rating

 

Ryan - 127.0

Allen - 124.0

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22 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Leading a receiver perfectly into a throw in stride is anticipation. The quarterback is anticipating where the receiver will be when the ball reaches his hands and throws it to that spot.

 

Re: "timing routes" - please show me all the timing routes Allen missed on at Wyoming. I'll wait.

 

As for Ryan, he finished 61st in the country in passer rating. Besides the fact that Ryan offensive coordinator as BC liked to pass the ball a lot, the statistical differences between Ryan and Allen in college are minimal. Both had relatively poor numbers (for various reasons) considering they were both top NFL prospects.

 

Matt Ryan vs. Josh Allen

 

Touchdown Percentage

 

Allen - 5.2

Ryan - 4.7

 

Interception Percentage

 

Allen - 2.4

Ryan - 2.9

 

Completion Percentage

 

Ryan - 59.3

Allen - 56.2

 

Yards Per Attempt

 

Ryan - 6.9

Allen - 6.6

 

Passer Rating

 

Ryan - 127.0

Allen - 124.0

It’s a well known fact Josh doesn’t throw with anticipation. I’m not gonna go digging for videos to prove it either. I’ve seen enough highlights to know that. Just watch for yourself. When he gets to the top of his dropback he doesn’t release. He watches and waits and then pulls the trigger. 

 

As for the bolded part I seen two out patterns Allen missed on in the highlight reel you provided. Out patterns are passes that are thrown before the WR comes out of his break. 

 

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11 hours ago, Justice said:

Mahomes and Watson obviously weren’t in this draft but we did have a shot at both last year and we let them go. In return we got Tre and Tremaine and those two will play a part in whether it was a wise move or not, but I think we can all agree QB trumps all. 

 

Great stats in college doesn’t mean you’ll be great in the pros, but since when have we ever seen a QB with bad numbers, and I mean really bad, improve in the pros? Honest question. I racked my head trying to find that answer and couldn’t. 

 

I haven’t visited this site in a very long time. I spend whatever time I do spend on PPP, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t spent time debating all these QBs with my friends for days on end. I’ve heard it all. The things I haven’t heard from anyone is he’s great at timing and anticipation. Two traits I cherish in a QB. 

 

I hope you’re right. I really do. I see what the Bills like in JA too. They’re certainly shooting for the stars and for that I commend them. When he passes on the run he looks like Aaron Rodgers. He shows glimpses of greatness. We need to make sure it’s consistent. 

There is not one qb that doesn't have a lot of questions coming into the league. As far as timing and anticipation, how can you get that if your receivers can't get seperation? Try and force that in and the interceptions start piling up. Plus you have to understand the routes they ran, how the receivers always cut their routes short, or didn't finish their routes. And whenever Allen got flushed out, his receivers stood and watched. Didn't come back to the ball or move to open space. Is Allen supposed to do it all? I have seen him play 20 games in person, so I would know these things. You are a very casual observer, soaking in and seeing what you want to see.

 

Just because you and your buddies discussed him, I doubt you had half the info at best. When you say "we" need to make sure it's consistent, do you mean the coaches I would hope? Allens OC did not build anything around Allen and his arm. He forced Allen into an outdated, boring, run first, predictable offense. Any decent OC would have seen that arm and his scrambling and torched people. Not hold his qb back.  And again, the front office did not pass on a qb to get Allen from the previous year. If somebody wouldn't have put out a bull **** report on him being racist, he probably wouldn't have been around at that pick. No one knows that either. So there are no facts here other than Allen is a Bill.

10 minutes ago, Justice said:

It’s a well known fact Josh doesn’t throw with anticipation. I’m not gonna go digging for videos to prove it either. I’ve seen enough highlights to know that. Just watch for yourself. When he gets to the top of his dropback he doesn’t release. He watches and waits and then pulls the trigger. 

 

As for the bolded part I seen two out patterns Allen missed on in the highlight reel you provided. Out patterns are passes that are thrown before the WR comes out of his break. 

 

Like I said, I saw 20 games in person, and the rest on tv. And you know more than me just from watching a clip? Too funny.

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What kills me as everyone thinks they know who will be a franchise qb. Too many variables to get too deep into it. I first want Allen to play solid, manage the game, and do what the staff asks of him. I don't think they would have traded Tyrod if they didn't think they could do better. So why force so much down Allens throat, how about a game at a time, and then a season at a time.  Only the truly greats start out on fire, and not even then at times. I just want Allen to have a solid year. It is not like he is taking over the Eagles or Patriots. Or that the Bills have been a juggernaut in quite some time. Let the two grow together.

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58 minutes ago, BB@Shooter said:

There is not one qb that doesn't have a lot of questions coming into the league. As far as timing and anticipation, how can you get that if your receivers can't get seperation? Try and force that in and the interceptions start piling up. Plus you have to understand the routes they ran, how the receivers always cut their routes short, or didn't finish their routes. And whenever Allen got flushed out, his receivers stood and watched. Didn't come back to the ball or move to open space. Is Allen supposed to do it all? I have seen him play 20 games in person, so I would know these things. You are a very casual observer, soaking in and seeing what you want to see.

 

Just because you and your buddies discussed him, I doubt you had half the info at best. When you say "we" need to make sure it's consistent, do you mean the coaches I would hope? Allens OC did not build anything around Allen and his arm. He forced Allen into an outdated, boring, run first, predictable offense. Any decent OC would have seen that arm and his scrambling and torched people. Not hold his qb back.  And again, the front office did not pass on a qb to get Allen from the previous year. If somebody wouldn't have put out a bull **** report on him being racist, he probably wouldn't have been around at that pick. No one knows that either. So there are no facts here other than Allen is a Bill.

Like I said, I saw 20 games in person, and the rest on tv. And you know more than me just from watching a clip? Too funny.

Yes. I meant the coaches.

 

(Bolded)It’s funny you say that too. Timing patterns actually helps out weaker WRs. It helps them get open or at least open long enough to make the catch. The ball usually comes when the defender doesn’t expect it. Makes them harder to defend. This isn’t happening with Wyoming’s offense. He actually waits for them to get open. You know who else does that? Tyrod Taylor. 

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On 5/15/2018 at 9:32 AM, TheTruthHurts said:

Not sure if he processes fast enough. Everything seems late. People blame it on other factors, but I don't like doing that. 

 

 

Getting through his progressions isn't his issue.  He played under center and made reads.  He even has shown he can look off defenders. It's even been shown that he can anticipate and throw a guy open.

 

The "hero" complex was his issue.  He would see the open short guy, he just felt he had to hit the deep low percentage throw. (In the pros...... I'm excited about that tendency.)

5 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

If Allen was not a late-bloomer from a tiny California farm town, he would not have had to go the Juco to Wyoming route.  His partcular history is rare.  A counter-history is necessarily speculative, but I do believe that had Allen been in a top program, his numbers would have been significantly better and he would have gone first overall to Cleveland.

6'2" 130lb when he graduated HS.

6'5" 240lb when drafted.

 

I wish I had that late growth spurt.

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You can call it group think if you want. Some of us are not on twitter, aren't subject to American sports radio day after day and judged Josh Allen the same way we judge everyone else - his tape. 

 

Now I have accepted before that Allen is kind of the anthithesis of my quarterback profile. I am not a big "ceiling guy". One of the key questions I ask with every player I look at let alone Quarterback is "what is he in the NFL if he is the same player in the league that he is on tape?" I tend as a result to be lower on the high ceiling with issues guys. Maybe if I worked in the NFL as an evaluator (not suggesting I am good enough to do that) I would be too risk averse as a result. So I accept the questions the Bills are asking themsleves are probably not the same questions I ask myself. 

 

I hope more than anything they are right on Josh Allen. But just dismissing everyone who expresses concerns about his chances of being a Franchise QB as being subject to group think or as not having engaged with the other side's arguments about the reasons for some of his struggles is getting pretty tiresome. 

 

Each side should be capable of expressing their opinion and seeing how it plays out without being labelled by the other side of the debate. 

 

Expressing concerns is one thing and frankly should just be allowed without question.

 

Straight calling him a bust before he has set foot on the field as a pro?  I have seen that here and that is equally bad.

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1 hour ago, Justice said:

It’s a well known fact Josh doesn’t throw with anticipation. I’m not gonna go digging for videos to prove it either. I’ve seen enough highlights to know that. Just watch for yourself. When he gets to the top of his dropback he doesn’t release. He watches and waits and then pulls the trigger. 

 

As for the bolded part I seen two out patterns Allen missed on in the highlight reel you provided. Out patterns are passes that are thrown before the WR comes out of his break. 

 

 

Not a fact at all.

 

No you didn't. And it's not a highlight reel.

.

Timing routes require wide receivers that have the ability to get separation on a consistent basis. Otherwise you're playing with fire no matter who your QB is. That's why you didn't see many (if any) of those type of routes in Wyoming's offensive system.

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