John Ledyard on with Schopp & Sal today

[gomper]

21 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Schopp is off today. Ledyard was on with Bulldog and Sal. 

Wow. How can the room contain all that charisma? 

[Magnum Force]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

I also saw a four-month-long group-think Josh Allen bashfest from social-media private NFL evaluators that the general public swallowed hook, line and sinker. These evaluators heard about a big kid with poor numbers at a mid-major who was possibly going to be the #1 pick in the draft and thought, "I'll show you why this kid is overrated" and pointed out every negative as their own confirmation bias, patting eachother's backs throughout.

 

As a result, Allen has unfairly become the symbol for old-school scouting methods and everything the growing moneyball/analytical scouting community are against. That not only affected Allen's public perception as a football player but also his draft stock.

This is so true. 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Magnum Force

[oldmanfan]

They are all guesses, positive or negative, made by people with little to no knowledge of either football or statistics.

 

Enough already.  Let the kid play.

[The_Dude]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I actually have no problem with a negative opinion but as fans we also have a right to look at his incorrect past opinions and there have been ready

 

MOST analysts do not share his round 3 grade opinion regardless of garbage that gets put on the board by certain posters

 

and if ledlard is gonna talk about lack of weapons out around him he should also talk about the huge dead cap we are carrying this year making it difficult

 

the bills decided to complete their defense instead with their draft picks because they felt they were of higher quality

 

Im not disputing that people have a right to say ‘Ledyard sucks as an analyst.’ 

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's cool; I interpreted that "Ledyard's opinion is better" is what you meant by saying (emphasis yours) "Ledyard is a SOLID analyst"

Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, I'm uncertain.

 

I'm with you that it's his job to give his opinion, the question is what is his background and track record such that we (as fans) should weight his opinion higher than, say, Buffalo716, Or Metzelaarslives, or for that matter, yours.

 

I do not mean Ledyard is better. Not what I mean. I do think he’s good though. But I strongly agreed with him last year on Mahomes. 

[Fixxxer]

2 hours ago, Jamie Mueller said:

 

My point was... it wouldn't be too hard to find a messed up play on tape for any QB who ever played the game.  Although the pivot is generally blamed whenever he throws the ball to nowhere... or worse to the other team... it's always difficult to really know who made the mistake on the play.  I'll bet we can find at least one play on tape where Dan Orlovsky looks really bad. I doubt that he'd be happy to accept that one play as being representative of his entire career... or his abilities as a quarterback.

 

this play difined Dan's career. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

Edited May 12, 2018 by Fixxxer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Stop dodging and own it. You said "many, if not most analysts 'expert draft analysts' had him as a 3rd round type project." Where are all of these expert draft analysts you speak of? 

 

We get it about Ledyard - his list is a "most likely to succeed in the NFL" ranking and I'm sure his past record is unmatched and impeccable. Probably makes millions off of his evaluations.

 

But "many, if not most analysts" would indicate...what, 50 people?

 

Please list those 50 people who considered Allen a 3rd round or later pick.

 

I'd settle for 5

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

4 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Ledyard himself, who had Allen "rated" as a 3rd round prospect, said in the same GR-55 segment that he predicted he would go in the top 10 for sure, or something like that.

 

His point being that NFL teams just can't hold off on a guy like Allen b/c they foolishly overvalue traits/talents and don't look at the whole picture of whether or not a QB prospect is likely to succeed in the NFL.

 

He is basically saying if you view Allen objectively, he is a 3rd round lottery ticket.  If you want to predict how NFL teams will view him in the draft, he'll be picked in the top 10. 

 

I'm working hard to wrap my head around this.  What I think you're reporting Ledyard as saying seems to amount to:

 

-Mr Ledyard is able to view players "objectively" and assess them properly as their chances of NFL success (thus where they should slot in the draft)

-professional NFL scouts and talent evaluators who work closely with coaches are not able to view players "objectively" but "foolishly overvalue" talent vs "the whole picture".

-Therefore, if there is huge discrepency between NFL scouts/talent evaluators (Rd 1) and Mr Ledyard (Rd 3) as to where a player's traits and talent merit drafting, it's because Ledyard is objective, values the right traits, and can see the big picture, while pro NFL scouts/talent evaluators are lack objectivity, value the wrong traits, and can't.

 

When put that way, doesn't it strike you as just a scootch arrogant?

 

Just suppose there was a guy, or a group of guys, who really had a sweet lock on what the right traits for success in the NFL really are at each position, and were far more savvy than NFL scouts and GMs.  That would be an incredible competitive advantage.  Don't you think teams would be racing to their door?

[JohnC]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I'm working hard to wrap my head around this.  What I think you're reporting Ledyard as saying seems to amount to:

 

-Mr Ledyard is able to view players "objectively" and assess them properly as their chances of NFL success (thus where they should slot in the draft)

-professional NFL scouts and talent evaluators who work closely with coaches are not able to view players "objectively" but "foolishly overvalue" talent vs "the whole picture".

-Therefore, if there is huge discrepency between NFL scouts/talent evaluators (Rd 1) and Mr Ledyard (Rd 3) as to where a player's traits and talent merit drafting, it's because Ledyard is objective, values the right traits, and can see the big picture, while pro NFL scouts/talent evaluators are lack objectivity, value the wrong traits, and can't.

 

When put that way, doesn't it strike you as just a scootch arrogant?

 

Just suppose there was a guy, or a group of guys, who really had a sweet lock on what the right traits for success in the NFL really are at each position, and were far more savvy than NFL scouts and GMs.  That would be an incredible competitive advantage.  Don't you think teams would be racing to their door?

In this qb draft class there was a wide variation of evaluations within the league scouting pros and outside the league scouting aficionados.  There certainly was a wide range of evaluations for Mayfield, Allen and Rosen. It appeared to me that Darnold had the most consistent high rating, but it also included some significant variations within the scouting ranks. There certainly was no Andrew Luck in this class where everyone would come to the same high evaluation on the player. 

 

As I stated in prior posts Ledyard's assessment of Allen was consistent with a sizable faction of evaluators inside and outside the NFL. Ledyard's view that qbs are very often from a general talent standpoint over-rated primarily because there is such a priority in getting a franchise qb is accurate or at the minimum a reasonable position to take. 

 

Scouting qbs is a challenge beyond scouting other positions because there are unmeasurable traits that you just can't be sure of when comparing the college game to the pro game. What comes to mind is vision and reading defenses. It's just hard to translate the performances from the college game to the pro game. 

 

What I and some others are saying about Ledyard's assessment of Allen is that it was a reasonable assessment. You don't have to agree with it but there is a reasonable basis for it. I'm saying this as a person who was ecstatic with his selection.

[John from Riverside]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I'm working hard to wrap my head around this.  What I think you're reporting Ledyard as saying seems to amount to:

 

-Mr Ledyard is able to view players "objectively" and assess them properly as their chances of NFL success (thus where they should slot in the draft)

-professional NFL scouts and talent evaluators who work closely with coaches are not able to view players "objectively" but "foolishly overvalue" talent vs "the whole picture".

-Therefore, if there is huge discrepency between NFL scouts/talent evaluators (Rd 1) and Mr Ledyard (Rd 3) as to where a player's traits and talent merit drafting, it's because Ledyard is objective, values the right traits, and can see the big picture, while pro NFL scouts/talent evaluators are lack objectivity, value the wrong traits, and can't.

 

When put that way, doesn't it strike you as just a scootch arrogant?

 

Just suppose there was a guy, or a group of guys, who really had a sweet lock on what the right traits for success in the NFL really are at each position, and were far more savvy than NFL scouts and GMs.  That would be an incredible competitive advantage.  Don't you think teams would be racing to their door?

Basically this is where I am at

 

not to mention the fact that he has tons of misses in his evaluations so why should his evaluation even be considered in the same sentence as gms who are basically staking their livelihood on the pick?

 

once again let people have their different opinions but certain posters should not be making outlandish claims (for instance how many reputable evaluators having josh Allen as a 3rd round prospect with no intention on being able to back that up) just go with this guy has the same opinion as me which is totally fine and then you don’t have to back up squat

for my part? I have no idea how good he is going to be but I do have confidence in this gmgym

[BB@Shooter]

5 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't confuse where he was rated with where he was predicted to go in the draft.

 

Ledyard himself, who had Allen "rated" as a 3rd round prospect, said in the same GR-55 segment that he predicted he would go in the top 10 for sure, or something like that.

 

His point being that NFL teams just can't hold off on a guy like Allen b/c they foolishly overvalue traits/talents and don't look at the whole picture of whether or not a QB prospect is likely to succeed in the NFL.

 

He is basically saying if you view Allen objectively, he is a 3rd round lottery ticket.  If you want to predict how NFL teams will view him in the draft, he'll be picked in the top 10.  

 

Most analysts had similar things to say about him.

 

Lots of Bills fans focus on the "tremendous upside" of Allen, but fail to remember that you must multiple that by the likelihood of success in hitting that upside, which is very low.

 

On aggregate, Allen is a traditional, lower round, high risk, likely to fail, gamble.

 

 

I think someone has a man crush on Ledyard. And please quit saying most analysts say that. Maycock , Mel Kuyper Jr. and Jeremiah had him in the ten top players if I remember correctly. I have never heard of Ledyard until today. Has he ever been on tv? R And just because you repeat that most analysts have said blah, blah, blah, doesn't make it true becauself you repeat it like a mantra. Find some quotes by some respectable analysts, and throw them out there. Most of us see you have one little link that isn't even very credible, and you are holding tight to it. And I have heard of Ledyard, but think he is a flake and don't waste my time reading anything he puts out. Kind of like B/R and USA today.

Edited May 13, 2018 by BB@Shooter

[BB@Shooter]

2 hours ago, Fixxxer said:

 

this play difined Dan's career. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

What a moron. And Orlovsky can actually criticize anyone after that play? I think not. He didn't want to get hit, the big kitty.

[Rochesterfan]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

In this qb draft class there was a wide variation of evaluations within the league scouting pros and outside the league scouting aficionados.  There certainly was a wide range of evaluations for Mayfield, Allen and Rosen. It appeared to me that Darnold had the most consistent high rating, but it also included some significant variations within the scouting ranks. There certainly was no Andrew Luck in this class where everyone would come to the same high evaluation on the player. 

 

As I stated in prior posts Ledyard's assessment of Allen was consistent with a sizable faction of evaluators inside and outside the NFL. Ledyard's view that qbs are very often from a general talent standpoint over-rated primarily because there is such a priority in getting a franchise qb is accurate or at the minimum a reasonable position to take. 

 

Scouting qbs is a challenge beyond scouting other positions because there are unmeasurable traits that you just can't be sure of when comparing the college game to the pro game. What comes to mind is vision and reading defenses. It's just hard to translate the performances from the college game to the pro game. 

 

What I and some others are saying about Ledyard's assessment of Allen is that it was a reasonable assessment. You don't have to agree with it but there is a reasonable basis for it. I'm saying this as a person who was ecstatic with his selection.

 

 

Yes their assessments had some consistent - their rankings did not.  The one that seems to be the outlier year over over when you look where guys are drafted compared to rankings is Ledyard.  Guys he runs very high - like Maurice Hurst this year (medical issue) - fall significantly.  He has the same access to reports that many of us have and yet he left Hurst as his top DT and a top 10 player when most analysts had talked with GMs and even fans doing mocks moved him to the 2nd and 3rd round.  He clearly states that Hurst is the only DT that he has with a 1st round grade.  Yet 3 DT go in the first round and 2 go top 15 - where they all mis-evaluated by everyone?

 

His placing Guice as his top RB and a mint prospect - when everyone knew he had attitude issues again tells you he is lost in ranking these guys.    His 18th ranked prospect and a tier 2 guy - Josh Sweat was drafted near the end of the 4th round and given a mid 5 grade as may become a starter and many sites had him as 6th or 7 Edge player not the 2nd behind only Chubb.  Low and behold he was the 7th EDGE player drafted.  

 

Now something is wrong here one of these guys will be wrong is it Ledyard who is pretty much alone or the many other experts and GMs that saw him as a much lower grade prospect.  He is totally entitled to his opinion and he hits some things, but it is clear when looking at his rankings he struggles to identify talent at many positions and way over values others.  My opinion is that he is correct that many QBs in this draft needed work, but it is incorrect to believe that Sam Darnold is a round 2 prospect and Josh Sweat is a high level starter graded with 1st round talent.  

 

That is insane and poorly done.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, BB@Shooter said:

What a moron. And Orlovsky can actually criticize anyone after that play? I think not. He didn't want to get hit, the big kitty.

 

To be fair to Orlovsky, he was trying to escape and extend the play I think, but he certainly wasn't "situationally aware".   And that defensive player got their PDQ - did Orlovsky maybe miss a basic read?

 

Anyway: I wasn't happy with the Allen pick.  I thought they were nuts to pick Allen with Rosen on the board - not based on pundits or "group think" or stats, but based on my own evaluation of their game film.  But I know McDermott and Beane and Co have access to a lot more info than we fans do, and they have WAY more skin in the game than we do.  So I trust (for now) that they have their reasons, and that they are good football reasons.

 

I understand why evaluators see flaws, and think perhaps those flaws make him a high ceiling/low floor risky kind of guy.  I probably saw many of the same flaws.  But I also recognize that our FO has access to a lot of stuff I don't, including perhaps the play calls, routes, and progressions on troubling plays.  Just perhaps, that additional info mitigates the flaws or make them look less troubling.

 

IMO to try to paint it as "most evaluators saw him as a 3rd round pick" or to put out stuff (as Fadingpain did, above) about how "NFL teams just can't hold off on a guy like Allen b/c they foolishly overvalue traits/talents and don't look at the whole picture of whether or not a QB prospect is likely to succeed in the NFL." and comparing Allen to a lottery ticket is just nuts.

[Rochesterfan]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair to Orlovsky, he was trying to escape and extend the play I think, but he certainly wasn't "situationally aware".   And that defensive player got their PDQ - did Orlovsky maybe miss a basic read?

 

Anyway: I wasn't happy with the Allen pick.  I thought they were nuts to pick Allen with Rosen on the board - not based on pundits or "group think" or stats, but based on my own evaluation of their game film.  But I know McDermott and Beane and Co have access to a lot more info than we fans do, and they have WAY more skin in the game than we do.  So I trust (for now) that they have their reasons, and that they are good football reasons.

 

I understand why evaluators see flaws, and think perhaps those flaws make him a high ceiling/low floor risky kind of guy.  I probably saw many of the same flaws.  But I also recognize that our FO has access to a lot of stuff I don't, including perhaps the play calls, routes, and progressions on troubling plays.  Just perhaps, that additional info mitigates the flaws or make them look less troubling.

 

IMO to try to paint it as "most evaluators saw him as a 3rd round pick" or to put out stuff (as Fadingpain did, above) about how "NFL teams just can't hold off on a guy like Allen b/c they foolishly overvalue traits/talents and don't look at the whole picture of whether or not a QB prospect is likely to succeed in the NFL." and comparing Allen to a lottery ticket is just nuts.

 

Totally Agree - I thought for sure Rosen was the pick and he was my top QB, but they have access to interviews and talking points we will never know and those things impact draft position.

 

I personally am happy that they had conviction and picked someone and that at least screams to me that they understand the NFL and the impact of the position.

 

I also totally get that many evaluators had him as a high risk high reward guy, but pre-draft I heard very few big boards that had Allen outside the top 30 players at any position and I certainly did not see a majority rank him as a 3rd round draft pick.  

[Elite Poster]

10 hours ago, cba fan said:

It is rookie mini camp. Who was suppose to get the attention?

Late first???

 

There are 32 picks in the first round. Math man.......

 

I mean in the draft there isn't a linear relationship in drop off of talent. The difference between pick 3 and 5 is much different than 15 and 13 is it not? Once you are out of the top 10-12, it's a late first value. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 5/12/2018 at 1:54 AM, John from Riverside said:

I thought it interesting how he waffled at the end of his interview just in case he was wrong......

 

Newsflash Ledlard.....ALL players are drafted on potential.  QBs are no different.

This is why a 3rd of the NFL GMs are fired on a yearly basis.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 5/12/2018 at 6:04 AM, N.Y. Orangeman said:

...are his greatest passions.

 

Whenever I see the word 'passion(s)' in a newspaper article, employment ad, or biographical sketch, I immediately stop reading.

 

Is my method skewed for judging people who judge sports teams draft picks?  ?

[John from Riverside]

16 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

This is why a 3rd of the NFL GMs are fired on a yearly basis.

They still know more then you or I or ledlard

 

regardless of what fans want to believe 

[Alaska Darin]

On 5/12/2018 at 4:56 PM, Fixxxer said:

 

this play difined Dan's career. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

If anyone can recognize a lack of pocket awareness, it’s Dan Orlovsky.

[BringBackOrton]

On 5/12/2018 at 2:50 PM, Doc Brown said:

He had a 2nd round grade on Carson Wentz in 2016 (who I keep hearing Allen comparison too) and rated him as the 4th QB in the draft after Goff, Lynch and Cardale Jones.  He also had Dak Prescott as a 6th round projection.  To his credit though, he had Watson as #1 on his board last year (mid range 1st) in front of Trubisky (late 1st), Mahomes (early 2nd), and Kizer (mid to late 2nd).  Time will tell on whether he got that class correct, but it's looking good so far.  I'm more on Ledyard's side when it comes to Josh Allen, but I hope to god I am wrong.

 

4. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State – 2nd Round

I’m a big fan of Wentz’s game, but the NDSU quarterback’s rise to “top ten” notoriety on many analysts’ boards is a bit much. Everything happens too slowly in the pocket for Wentz, whose stance and accuracy will need some work at the next level. His arm and ability to make tough throws will likely entice a team enough to get him selected in the top 15 picks come April 28.

 

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2016/04/11/2016-nfl-draft-big-board-final-quarterback-rankings/

https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/ledyards-2017-nfl-draft-positional-rankings-quarterbacks/

 

Embarrassing opinion.  Wentz was easily QB2 by November that year.  

 

To the trash he goes.