Thoughts on offense: why it might not be as bad as we think this year, and how it relates to roster building strategy

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

***Long Post***

I think most fans assume that the offensive production this season will see a noticeable drop off, based on what's transpired so far this off-season. The general idea is that the Bills will need their defense to keep them in games this year, and based on the additions made on that side of the ball, it's easy to assume that the D should be better this year and will do just that. It seems pretty clear what Beane and McDermott's short and long term plans are and has been (I know it's been discussed here recently): build up the defense with a good mix of youth and experience, while shedding dead cap, hopefully find a franchise QB, and lastly add offensive talent. But I don't think the Bills offense will be quite as bad this season as many people think, and that the advancement of this offense, and the development of young players in it, will be more rapid than we assume. 

 

Other than hopefully seeing a fully healthy Benjamin this year, most fans would say that the Bills have less overall talent on offense this season. They lost a couple veteran WRs, and drafted a couple late round replacements. Three total linemen gone, with those holes filled by free agents. And of course there's questions at QB, leading us to believe that the offense will not be as productive of a unit overall this season. 

 

But the biggest factor, IMO, has little to do with the players involved:

 

* Brian Daboll hired to replace Rick Dennison

 

There's obviously some uncertainty as to how well of a job he'll do, but at the very least, he knows what it takes to win, and has learned from some great football minds. You cannot ignore 5 Super Bowl rings and an NCAA championship ring, regardless of what his role was in earning them. And while he doesn't exactly have a great track record as an NFL OC, he does have experience there, and I'm sure he's learned a lot over the years from those experiences. The lack of experience really seemed to show at times last year with Dennison. Also keep in mind that Daboll has been a QB coach in the past.

 

More important than experience will be the change in offensive scheme. Daboll will bring the Erhardt-Perkins offense to the Bills, and based on the strengths and advantages it brings, I think it fits perfectly with the type of team that Beane and McDermott are trying to build, and really sheds some light onto why they're going about building it the way they are. I also believe that it doesn't take as long for players to get up to speed in this offense, and doesn't require top talent in order to be successful.

 

Let's review some of the advantages that the EP offense brings, and how they compare to West Coast and Air Coryell offenses:

 

* Smaller, simpler playbook. 

 

Rather than having to rely on the route tree to call plays like you would in an AC offense, or long, drawn out play calls that describe each players' duties in a WC offense, plays in an EP offense are concept based and named accordingly. Many of the play calls consist of just a few words, many times only one or two. This makes it much easier for players to learn the playbook and their assignements. Then, they will only need to know the formation and where to line up on a given play. This helps an offense utilize the same plays and concepts, while using the same personnel, and allows them to do it out of multiple formations. Plays may look different to defenses due to formation, but it's really the same read from the QB, just a different player running the same route from a different look. Its a good way to make things complex for defenses, without really being complex yourself as an offense. It's really about taking what the defense gives you, something that Brady has done his entire career.

 

Having simple verbiaged play calls also saves some precious time between plays, and being that it's easy for players to know their assignments with just one or two words from the QB, it allows you to more effectively operate an uptempo or no-huddle offense. I'm not saying we should expect to see the K-Gun, but uptempo/no-huddle really hasn't been utilized too much in Buffalo in recent years, and when it was utilized, we could easily see why it wasn't used more (other than out of necessity). In WC offenses, its more difficult to go uptempo or no-huddle as effectively due to the complex play calls. And play calls in AC offenses have become much more complex than they were 20 years ago due to the evolution and complexity of today's defenses, hindering the ability to effectively run an uptempo or no-huddle in that offense.

 

* Ability to be "neutral" on offense. 

 

This is a big factor, IMO. It's similar in a strategic way to having a "hybrid" defense, only it relates more to how your coaches want to dictate a game on offense, or the "type" or "style" of game they want against a particular opponent, creating flexibility from week to week. You can go run heavy/slow ground and pound one week, air it out/high scoring attack the next, then maintain a nice balance a week later (whatever the coaches see fit depending on opponent). This makes an opponent's preparation and game planning strategies much more difficult. They won't "know which team" they're going to see come game day. It also allows for better in-game adjustments, based on what's transpiring during the game. This makes it harder for opponents to diagnose certain tendencies.

 

* Easier to fill WR/skill positions. 

 

This is one of the best factors of the EP offense, IMO, since it gives the coaches and front office much more flexibility in several ways. One thing that we've seen over the years in New England is their ability to not miss a beat with roster turnover or injury at the WR position. Players come and go, yet their passing attack is always above average. Plug and play. Of course, Brady is a big part of that, but it's still up to the WRs to get open and make the play when their numbers are called. The simplistic EP play calls probably make things easier for them, and allows them to focus more on other aspects of their game and development as players. Its a natural advantage in the EP offense. It makes it easier to sustain production after injuries to skill players, whereas injuries to skill players in an AC offense would have a much greater impact on its effectiveness, because it's much more reliant on specific types of players and skill sets to fill the WR positions. EP allows flexibility in drafting and signing free agent WRs since you aren't as dependent on specific players and skill sets to fill those holes, making it easier to manage roster turnover at the WR position. This should make it easier to manage the cap at that position as well, adding more money to spend in other areas.

 

Perhaps as a result, we won't see too many WRs drafted in early rounds under this regime, especially in the 1st. That really helps the team in drafting BPA, but I could see the Bills passing on a talented WR early, in favor of a top defensive player, and taking a lesser talented "process" type WR later in the draft, due to the flexibility that the EP offense affords you. We know how McDermott values character, and that may be especially true with players at that position, as opposed to higher priced "Dez" types.

 

* Extra blocker factor. 

 

This might not be all that important to mention, but it certainly helps to have one more player helping to protect your QB. The only issue is that it's a RB that's doing it, and they aren't always the best at blocking. McCoy isn't terrible there, but it's not exactly what he's known for. Ivory is probably better suited for that, and could be one of the reasons why he was brought in, despite his age. I think he'll see a bit more playing time simply because of that. He'll get carries, some of them just to mask their intentions to pass on certain plays that he's on the field. 

 

Also, I think it's safe to say that McCoy will probably have less receptions in this offense. RBs in WC offenses are often asked to be another pass catching weapon, and not so much in the EP in comparison. Maybe also as a result of this, we'll see less emphasis on building the offensive line, to some extent. Not saying they can get away with not adding top talent there, but it's probably more imperative to have a good/great pass blocking O-line in a WC offense due to the lack of having an extra blocker as often. Possibly, our staff will have a similar approach to the O-line as they may have to the WR position, to a lesser extent.

 

* Just need competence at the QB position.

 

Maybe I'm not wording this right, and it's something that's not only relative to this offense, but you don't need to be the smartest QB in the league to operate this offense. This goes back to the idea of simplicity. A QB with "average NFL QB smarts" will do just fine in the EP. A really smart QB can make this offense nearly unstoppable, even without the best talent around him. This idea may shed light into why AJ and JA were brought in. 

 

In summary, I considered all these factors, and it helped me to make more sense of why the Bills put more focus and money on defense in free agency, while bringing in players on offense that were more JAG type players, and I feel a little more confident that the offense will be more competitive this year than we might think by just looking at it "on paper". They probably aren't going to look like a well oiled machine for some time, but I think they'll be varied enough on offense, giving them a bit of a competitive edge, or at least help to mask some talent deficiencies. This should allow the Bills to start AJ for as long as they see fit, until Allen is ready, without poor performance causing frustration and pressure from the fans to make the switch to JA too soon. This is assuming Allen is not "ready" to start week 1, and that the staff prefers to work on improving certain aspects of his game before playing him. 

 

Looking at the scheme and its details may also give insight into how the Bills will address the draft and free agency at certain positions as well. Maybe I'm over thinking things here, or I'm off in my assessment, but I'm interested to see how that plays out in the coming years, and how scheme plays a role there.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[ALF]

I just hope Daboll has the time and experience to coach up Allen. I have serious doubts about Culley as a QB coach.

 

If Castillo can teach the OL scheme that worked for Kromer  and Miller was good at and Mills could better handle.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

I just hope Daboll has the time and experience to coach up Allen. I have serious doubts about Culley as a QB coach.

 

If Castillo can teach the OL scheme that worked for Kromer  and Miller was good at and Mills could better handle.

 

One of the things people say about Allen is that he's very smart and a quick study, so maybe that process won't be too slow, regardless of how much time and involvement Daboll has there. And while Cully may not be a QB whisperer or have the experience as a QB coach at the professional level, he's in this position for a reason. His job is very specific, and I'm sure he has a plan. If a guy like Joe Buscaglia can easily identify certain tendencies in Allen's game that need work, like opening his hips on throws to the left sideline, then I'm sure our staff has identified them as well, and will work on them. 

 

As far as Castillo and the line goes, I think we'll still see plenty of zone blocking concepts in the run game, but much more hat on hat down blocking as well. I didn't even bring up the run game in the OP, mainly because I really don't know exactly what to expect. What I do believe is that losing guys like Incognito and Wood may result in less pulling linemen, which is something that the Bills have done frequently over the last three years, regardless of who was coach or coordinator. It tailored to the strengths of those players, and Shady had many nice gains on those plays. I don't know enough about their replacements to know how well or fit they will be at pulling, so we'll just have to wait and see how often they do it in games to get an idea on that.

 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Juice_32]

Great post, enjoyed reading.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Juice_32

[BillsInWilmingtonNC]

Some really great info.  Thanks for sharing!!  I believe that they are spending the draft picks mostly on defensive players right now due to the fact that it is McD's scheme and he knows that isn't going anywhere.... on the other side, they are going to see what Daboll and this scheme can do with free agents, and if they see him do a lot with a little bit of talent, then they will invest draft picks next year into his offense.  They want to see Daboll's offense do what McD's defense did last year, which is look really good with minimal talent.

[Soda Popinski]

I think Daboll's ability to coach to his player's strengths and adapt his playbook will really help this offense, that and play calling in general.   Dennison was serviceable but predictable and after the 1st half we never adjusted and got better, we always got worse.   

 

I think this offense can be better, but it rests on McCarron.   and to a lesser but still significant extent Zay Jones.  We don't really have anyone else, it's Watkins/Woods all over again, and we need the #2 to step up in a big way.  

 

I see no reason Shady will not be Shady.   1000yds rushing, yes of course, 400yds receiving, absolutely.   

[ProcessAccepted]

Agreed, good post. 

 

Last year after all the personnel moves we made I was really down on our chances. On paper the roster needs to improve but I really believe that McD is changing the culture in the locker room. The guys believe that they can go out and beat any team. If they believe it they I should too. 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

2 hours ago, BillsInWilmingtonNC said:

Some really great info.  Thanks for sharing!!  I believe that they are spending the draft picks mostly on defensive players right now due to the fact that it is McD's scheme and he knows that isn't going anywhere.... on the other side, they are going to see what Daboll and this scheme can do with free agents, and if they see him do a lot with a little bit of talent, then they will invest draft picks next year into his offense.  They want to see Daboll's offense do what McD's defense did last year, which is look really good with minimal talent.

 

Same here. I'm not saying that the scheme on offense is the main factor in how the team is being built, but that it makes your theory easier to do without taking major steps back on offense. 

 

McDermott's defense is based on being stout against the run, and disguising blitzes in a short zone defense. It was clear that there were issues on defense last year that seriously limited the effectiveness of that. The pass rush was pretty bad, and the LB group wasn't filled with the ideal talent for that scheme. Preston Brown is a solid player, but doesn't possess the speed at his position to help maximize the effectiveness of the scheme. And in this scheme, I think having an uber-atheletic, instictual Mike is imperative. Drafting Edmunds could be the most important move they've made on defense in the long run. They also addressed the run defense and pass rush in free agency. I think that they expect to to see growing pains on offense, since they have a new, rather inexperienced QB and drafted rookie, coupled with a rather weak WR group, so beefing up the defense was the best strategy for the team to be competitive in the short term. 

 

And I think you're right about seeing what Daboll can do with less talent. This staff does seem to get the most out of players that weren't initially viewed as being all that good. Guys like Hyde and Poyer were thought to be rather average to below average, and not the playmakers that they were last year. Milano as a rookie always seemed to be around the ball. As a team, I think the Bills overachieved last year, to the suprise of most people. They were supposedly "tanking"... If Daboll can make the most out of lesser talented players, it will allow the staff to focus more attention on really beefing up the defense and making that side of the ball even stronger. That way, they won't have to use as many draft picks on offense next year as they would otherwise have to, and can focus more on spending all that cap on retaining players, and maybe signing a WR that can help put the team "over the top". 

 

I think Beane would rather not have to allocate too many assets to help out a struggling offense, or possibly have more coaching turnover on offense. If it works, it will bring long term success. And if Allen pans out, he'll command big money when his deal is up, limiting the spending in other areas. We saw how that effected the Ravens when they gave Flacco all that money, so being able to have success with less talent if/when that times comes will hopefully eleviate that drop off in talent.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[BmarvB]

Very good and informative post. I sure hope your assessment is on target. Beane and McD are building a serious contender here one piece at a time. Won't be long before we shock the league and take the title from the Pats.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

great breakdown. I'm with you on this and enjoyed reading your post. My hope is that Zay, Reilly, and/or one of the draft choices become a stable chain moving force.  Kerley and KB are good and I won't sleep on Streater.  Holmes can be a red zone target, but my guess is that he may be the odd man out with Streater healthy.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

2 hours ago, Soda Popinski said:

I think Daboll's ability to coach to his player's strengths and adapt his playbook will really help this offense, that and play calling in general.   Dennison was serviceable but predictable and after the 1st half we never adjusted and got better, we always got worse.   

 

I think this offense can be better, but it rests on McCarron.   and to a lesser but still significant extent Zay Jones.  We don't really have anyone else, it's Watkins/Woods all over again, and we need the #2 to step up in a big way.  

 

I see no reason Shady will not be Shady.   1000yds rushing, yes of course, 400yds receiving, absolutely.   

 

Hey, Soda! Glad you're here!

 

About adapting to player's strengths...the Erhardt-Perkins offense makes that ability much easier to do, IMO. Not saying that is why he's good at it, but I think It helps. The fact that you don't have to have certain skill sets to fill specific roles assists him there. You can really cater to a player's strength in the EP, but in AC offenses, you really cater your roster moves to the scheme, which limits a GM's flexibility in acquiring talent, and limits an OC's flexibility in making alterations to the scheme and style of offense from year to year. 

 

The Pats have been masters of this. Its why the team looks a bit different in style on offense from year to year, depending on talent, without changing scheme. Having a Randy Moss allowed them to change their strategy and air it out more, but without him, they still were still very potent because the scheme didn't change due to having different talent. It simply changed their attack strategy. Having Blount had the same effect. (for the run game, obviously). It altered their overall attack strategy, but they were still EP. It's part of the reason why we are always talking about the Pats making average players look much better. Hogan is a great example. Maybe a guy like Brandon Reilly will "break out" a bit this year because of this idea.

 

This really is a make or break year for Zay, especially after the off field incident a while back. While I don't expect him to light it up in his 2nd year, he needs to show noticeable improvement in his route running and hands. One way or the other, he will have a significant impact on the success or struggles in the passing attack.

 

As for Shady, he's certainly special, and it's been a joy to watch him make guys miss. I don't think he slows down just yet, but at the same time, I don't think he'll be as much of factor as a receiver as he was last year in the WC offense. JMO

Edited May 10, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Rochesterfan]

I agree with you post in premise - I also think the change at QB will help out overall.  

 

I have said it in other posts and Dennison certainly deserves a lot of blame, but he was brought in to run a WCO with short precise patterns attack horizontally across the field with the desire that it would open lanes for Shady.  

 

That could not materialize because the QB could not drop and throw in rhythm - TT does many things well as a QB and he is a natural leader, but a WCO was never going to work for him.

 

I think the addition of AJ and the change in set-up will allow the offense to do some things they simply could not do last year.  I am hoping that means the offense overall will show improvement even with what appears to be lesser players.  

 

We have seen NE thrive with average players at WR because of the system and Brady -can we get a fraction of that production with AJ and our castoffs?

[Cash]

Thanks for posting!  I agree with the general thrust that 1.) Talent on offense is overall worse, but hopefully 2.) Coaching can make up some of the difference.  I'll remain skeptical that it can make up all of the difference until I see it, but hope springs eternal.  One thing I disagree with in the OP - the Patriots have had success with multiple WRs over the years, but it hasn't exactly been "plug and play" as you said.  They've had several notable WRs not be able to produce in their system, supposedly because of the extreme demands it puts on WRs.  Chad Ochocinco was probably the most famous example.  But also consider that in the cheating era, they've drafted Aaron Dobson, Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, and Deion Branch in the 2nd round, and only 1 of them amounted to anything.  Plus Brandon Tate and Taylor Price in the third round.  

 

I think it just seems like they've been plug and play because they've consistently invested a lot (at least volume-wise) in the WR position, and we only remember the hits like Branch or Edelman, not the misses like Josh Boyce or Jeremy Gallon.  Also keep in mind that the only "bargain" hits were Troy Brown and Julian Edelman.  Branch was a 2nd rounder.  Welker was acquired for a 2nd rounder plus a 7th rounder.  Amendola was signed for a medium-high market FA contract.  

 

Randy Moss is kind of a special case - they only had to give up a low pick in trade, but that was only an option because his attitude was so bad in Oakland, and his contract was pretty hefty for the time.  Moss' career start in Minnesota put him on pace to be the best WR of all time before crashing hard in Oakland.  If we can find a guy like that, I'm all for it, but I don't think it's a very repeatable situation.

[eball]

I learned a lot reading the OP -- thanks!

[TheBeane]

I go back and forth on the offense and how they will do this coming season.  But I generally believe, based off many of the same thoughts in this thread, that the offense will be slightly better than what most are thinking. 

 

We're going to have more turnovers, since one of TT's major pluses (or could be viewed as a negative) is that he was very cautious and did not cause too many turnovers.  But that's where our improved D is going to bail out the offense.

 

If AJ and JA can move the ball on occasion, we might have some luck this year and not be picking #1 overall in 2019.

[Shaw66]

DP -

 

Thanks for the great post.   I, too, think people will be surprised by the quality of the offense. 

 

I think you way overstate the significance of the change to EP.   If it were that obvious that EP is superior in all respects, EVERY team in the league would run it.   I mean, if the only reason the Pats offense is good and diverse is because of EP, every team would be doing it.   There's a lot more to it than that. 

 

And, from the the things I read when Daboll signed on, EP really is a nomenclature system.   The articles all said pretty much all the teams run all the same plays; it's just that the play call is different.  

 

Having said that, I don't understand WHY all teams don't run it.   It certainly is a good explanation as to why the Pats can get in and out of the huddle and snap it quickly.   I like the idea that with just a few words, a whole route tree can be called and can be adjusted by formation.   It just makes a lot of sense to me.  Thanks for the recap of the system.

 

I'm not sure your conclusion about passing to the backs is correct.  As I understand EP, the backs can be just as active in the passing game - it just depends on the formation.  If the second man from the outside is a back in a certain formation, then he runs a particular route.  If he's the third man from the outside, he runs a different route.   Again, EP doesn't so much dictate that the pass plays are different; it's that the play call is simpler (for the QB).   It isn't  simpler for the receiver, because he has know the entire route tree and figure out which route is his, based on the formation - essentially, in EP the QB can know where he's going find A receiver without necessarily knowing which receiver it's going to be.  SOME receiver is in the flat, SOME receiver is running the post, SOME receiver will be sitting in the short middle.   It's easy to see how it makes life simpler for the QB.    

 

My view is that what's going to make the offense better is (1) better NFL-style quarterbacking from McCarron (or Allen if he somehow wins the job).   By that I mean, better decision making pre- and post-snap.   The EP scheme may help McCarron (just as it probably would have helped Taylor).  (2)  Receivers better suited to the style of play.   We don't know exactly who the receivers will be, except that we should expect Benjamin and Jones to be the primary receivers.   The emphasis is going to be on precise route running and recognition of the defenses.  I'm a big believer that people tend to way overvalue receivers.   When you think about it, how many receivers can you name who consistently beat their defender and get wide open?   Not very many; most of the time when a receiver is open, it's because he ran his route well and the pattern or scheme created the opportunity.  The receiver just takes advantage of the opportunity.   That's why the Pats can get a lot of mileage out of a Hogan, for example.   (3)  Solid but not dominant offensive line play.   I think the style of play that McD wants for the Bills is, as you say, plug-and-play.   It's a style where each player has a precise job to do on each play, and the job can be accomplished by any NFL-calibre player (in terms of athleticism and experience).   So, for example, I get the sense that McD is perfectly comfortable that Dawkins can be the left tackle, that Mills can be the right tackle, that Groy can be one of the interior guys and Ducasse can be another.   I know those aren't popular names across the line, but the fans' opinion isn't what matters.   I think McD is confident that he can get effective play from those guys and that all he needs is one more.   Maybe a rookie.   Maybe a free agent they haven't signed yet.   

 

It isn't going to be a juggernaut offense, but I think it's going to surprise people.   

 

One final thought:  Ivory is a pro's pro.   He's going to be a significant contributor on this team. 

[Sky Diver]

Interesting side note: Ray Perkins coached Alabama in the '80s.

[auburnbillsbacker]

Last year I was excited about our potential rookie QB having a pro bowl center, a pro bowl guard, and two bookend tackles protecting him on the offensive line.  We just lost 3 out of the 4 with very questionable replacements.  In addition, if Z. Jones doesn't really step up his game we are very weak at WR.  I can't imagine a scenerio where our offense is good.  When Allen finally sees the field he will have no chances for success and all of the haters on here will tear him apart.  On the positive side, we have a lot of cap space and draft picks next off season.  I just hope as fans were are not too judgmental.  While I appreciate the effort put into the OP's post,  I think high expectations can be dangerous.  

[ngbills]

If its this simple what went wrong for Daboll in the past? 

 

 

 

 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

47 minutes ago, Cash said:

Thanks for posting!  I agree with the general thrust that 1.) Talent on offense is overall worse, but hopefully 2.) Coaching can make up some of the difference.  I'll remain skeptical that it can make up all of the difference until I see it, but hope springs eternal.  One thing I disagree with in the OP - the Patriots have had success with multiple WRs over the years, but it hasn't exactly been "plug and play" as you said.  They've had several notable WRs not be able to produce in their system, supposedly because of the extreme demands it puts on WRs.  Chad Ochocinco was probably the most famous example.  But also consider that in the cheating era, they've drafted Aaron Dobson, Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, and Deion Branch in the 2nd round, and only 1 of them amounted to anything.  Plus Brandon Tate and Taylor Price in the third round.  

 

I think it just seems like they've been plug and play because they've consistently invested a lot (at least volume-wise) in the WR position, and we only remember the hits like Branch or Edelman, not the misses like Josh Boyce or Jeremy Gallon.  Also keep in mind that the only "bargain" hits were Troy Brown and Julian Edelman.  Branch was a 2nd rounder.  Welker was acquired for a 2nd rounder plus a 7th rounder.  Amendola was signed for a medium-high market FA contract.  

 

Randy Moss is kind of a special case - they only had to give up a low pick in trade, but that was only an option because his attitude was so bad in Oakland, and his contract was pretty hefty for the time.  Moss' career start in Minnesota put him on pace to be the best WR of all time before crashing hard in Oakland.  If we can find a guy like that, I'm all for it, but I don't think it's a very repeatable situation.

 

Good points. "Plug and play" certainly doesn't work all the time, but really the point was more about getting the most out of "marginal" players. They've done a good job of altering their attack based on the players. And, of course, having players like Moss and Gronk makes things much easier, and allows for other players to have more success due to teams focusing more on those great players.

 

I don't think its as simple as "insert random player, and it works". But the scheme makes that more of a possibility, IMO.