20/20: Would you have traded Tredavious White for Browns' #4 pick?

[Buffalo86]

11 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

I guess I'm the only one, but I would trade White for Chubb.  Pass rusher > CB.

 

Not a crazy notion, especially for the pass rusher who many viewed as the best player in the draft.  FWIW, PFF ranked Tre'Davious as the #2 CB in the league last year, but everyone's available for the right price.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Buffalo86

[BurpleBull]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Ok. 

 

But thats not what your original post said. You said, "yes let's trade away a promising position for a lottery pick." Which is exactly what they did with Watkins for a 2nd rounder. 

 

Frankly, I'm sick of new regimes coming in here and jettisoning proven, young good players just because they have nothing to do with them and were acquired by the old regime. IF McBeane doesn't work out I really hope Pegula learns his lesson and hires people who actually BUILD off of what the old regime did well, and holds onto talent.... even if they have no attachment to them. Talent is talent no matter who acquired it. 

The KC Chiefs and Andy Reid obviously don't think so. 

 

A coach whos had A LOT of success in this league. A lot more experience and success then McBeane can say. 

 

I'm not basing my opinion on what McBeane thought of Watkins, it's based on how productive he was during his time as a Bills player given the high expectations.

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by BurpleBull

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Buffalo86 said:

. 

Not a crazy notion, especially for the pass rusher who many viewed as the best player in the draft.  FWIW, PFF ranked Tre'Davious as the #2 CB in the league last year, but everyone's available for the right price.

I understand the argument.

 

I just think it is not as simple as all that......

 

- What is the most important position on the team.  It is easy to say  "we should have just found another way to trade up for Allen" well.....that draft capital was VITAL to the trade up for our franchise QB.....without it we are fighting other teams like Arizona (which we could easily outbid BECAUSE of the draft capital gotten by Beane....that made that possible.

 

- That is not even counting the fact that Tre might be better then any corner taken out of this draft....he is that good.....a future pro bowler I think...in the running for rookie of the year and deservedly so.

 

- Follow the money......QBs make a ton.....what is the next highest paid position?  SHUT DOWN CORNER....or at least they are right up there....look at what Gilmore got and I dont think he is even as good as Tre is.

 

- Sammy was due the big contract.....prior to this last year (and even some this last year) he has CONSISTANTLY been hurt....people seem to forget that part....the downsides of giving Sammy the contract was the unknown if he could even stay healthy.

 

Its  a rebiuld....Sammy was not in their vision.   In a rebiuld you dont get all the pieces at once....they did get one very important piece....and they made the playoffs while they did it......

[3rdand12]

Tre is the shidizzle.
My Man Tre.

 

nuff said

[cba fan]

23 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Clearly the biggest surprise of Round #1 was the Browns pick #4 going for Denzel Ward instead of Bradley Chubb. Chances are the Browns were still hoping for Barkley but basically knew they were getting Ward the moment the GIants made the Barkley pick. If we had known the Browns were looking at CB at #4 (it has been widely reported they wanted a CB to allow Garrett to get to the QB), would you be willing to trade Tredavious White for the #4 pick? Not that I am not high on White (I think he will make the Pro Bowl this year if he stays injury free).

 

Why for the Browns: White is closer to a sure thing than Ward and still has three years on the rookie scale (at a lower salary than #4).

Why for the Bills:  1. Guaranteed to get Josh Allen  2. Would have likely gotten WARD at #12 and likely still gotten Edmunds for #22 and #65 at 16. So Bills end up with Allen, Ward and Edmunds instead of Allen, White and Edmunds. All things equal,  I prefer the latter - but remember in this trade Bills get to keep their 2 #2s and get an extra year on the rooki scale for their CB. So would you rate Ward, #53 and #56 as higher than Tre' White?

 

Clearly Bills had interest in Ward - they even hosted him at OBD.  

 

typo corrected in bold

You toss out a very interesting idea that should not be dismissed so easily as it has by others.

 

However the facts of current climate at OBD are McBeane are nearly physically attached to the players they are bringing in, in contrast to the way they are treating anyone with the smallest whiff of Whaley/Rex on there laundry pile they virtually pay teams to take off their hands.

 

So in closing if you run this idea through 15,000 computer simulations with all possibilities it would still come up "zero" for that scenario to be chosen by McBeane.

 

A different front office and those odds would be better for you.

Edited May 11, 2018 by cba fan

[Buffalo86]

28 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I understand the argument.

 

I just think it is not as simple as all that......

 

- What is the most important position on the team.  It is easy to say  "we should have just found another way to trade up for Allen" well.....that draft capital was VITAL to the trade up for our franchise QB.....without it we are fighting other teams like Arizona (which we could easily outbid BECAUSE of the draft capital gotten by Beane....that made that possible.

 

- That is not even counting the fact that Tre might be better then any corner taken out of this draft....he is that good.....a future pro bowler I think...in the running for rookie of the year and deservedly so.

 

- Follow the money......QBs make a ton.....what is the next highest paid position?  SHUT DOWN CORNER....or at least they are right up there....look at what Gilmore got and I dont think he is even as good as Tre is.

 

- Sammy was due the big contract.....prior to this last year (and even some this last year) he has CONSISTANTLY been hurt....people seem to forget that part....the downsides of giving Sammy the contract was the unknown if he could even stay healthy.

 

Its  a rebiuld....Sammy was not in their vision.   In a rebiuld you dont get all the pieces at once....they did get one very important piece....and they made the playoffs while they did it......

 

I wasn't talking about finding another way to get Allen; this was strictly about Chubb for White.  Shut down CB is among the highest paying non-QB gigs, but so is pass rushing DE.  There's not a CB today who can impact the game like a healthy JJ Watt.  I'm not saying you'd be crazy not to trade White for Chubb, but it would be worthy of consideration.  However... it's worth mentioning that in this fantasy scenario, the Broncos missing out on Chubb would lead them to trade the #5 pick to us (so we could get Allen) for #12, 22, & 53, causing us to miss out on Edmunds.  In that light, it comes down to whether or not Chubb > White + Edmunds.  I like our side better.

 

Sammy who?  I hated that pick and was thrilled that we ended up with a 2nd rounder for him.  I can't believe the Chiefs paid him as much as they did.

[Punching Bag]

23 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Yes let’s trade a promising player for a lottery ticket

Actually it would be three lottery tickets, one big prize and two scratch offs.

There is no guarantee that Ward will be as good as White nor that he will integrate as well.

Plus Bill in NYC would have a heart attack so no.

[John from Riverside]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo86 said:

 

I wasn't talking about finding another way to get Allen; this was strictly about Chubb for White.  Shut down CB is among the highest paying non-QB gigs, but so is pass rushing DE.  There's not a CB today who can impact the game like a healthy JJ Watt.  I'm not saying you'd be crazy not to trade White for Chubb, but it would be worthy of consideration.  However... it's worth mentioning that in this fantasy scenario, the Broncos missing out on Chubb would lead them to trade the #5 pick to us (so we could get Allen) for #12, 22, & 53, causing us to miss out on Edmunds.  In that light, it comes down to whether or not Chubb > White + Edmunds.  I like our side better.

 

Sammy who?  I hated that pick and was thrilled that we ended up with a 2nd rounder for him.  I can't believe the Chiefs paid him as much as they did.

this was not  a response to you sorry I was commenting on someone elses lamenting of Sammy being gone and thinking we should just "find another way" to get to 7 from the latter part of the draft

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Tre is the shidizzle.
My Man Tre.

 

nuff said

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

Sigh. I saw that people are mis-characterizing what I posted in this thread. I also understand we all love Tre.

 

The trade, despite my inability to explain it well actually has a bunch of nuances and more well thought out than a cursory reading would indicate. For the last time, I am not suggesting a Ward for Tre swap. It was an attempt as an armchair GM to take advantage of the Browns unexpectedly reaching for a CB at #4. If we give them an upgrade at CB (yes White is an upgrade over Ward) and gotten #4, we would have guaranteed Allen. Remember the Bills wanted Allen enough to offer way more to Denver for the #5 pick. Do you think Tre, as much as we like him, is worth #12, #22, #56 and change - which is what Beane agreed to with Denver? 

 

And with the way the draft unfolded, there was a good chance, we would have still gotten Edmunds and a first round talent at corner, not to mention two additional second rounders in the deepest draft we have had in years. Not to mention, since Beane knew Denver wanted him - maybe even pry a third rounder from Denver to let them select Chubb and we get Allen at #5.

 

That said, I understand why Beane did not even attempt the trade. Dorsey was so secretive about his picks that everyone was surprised when he went CB. I have no doubt that if we knew Browns were going CB, Beane would have attempted this trade - just see what he was willing to give up for #5 and see if Tre (yes we all love him) is worth all that draft capital.

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Sigh. I saw that people are mis-characterizing what I posted in this thread. I also understand we all love Tre.

 

The trade, despite my inability to explain it well actually has a bunch of nuances and more well thought out than a cursory reading would indicate. For the last time, I am not suggesting a Ward for Tre swap. It was an attempt as an armchair GM to take advantage of the Browns unexpectedly reaching for a CB at #4. If we give them an upgrade at CB (yes White is an upgrade over Ward) and gotten #4, we would have guaranteed Allen. Remember the Bills wanted Allen enough to offer way more to Denver for the #5 pick. Do you think Tre, as much as we like him, is worth #12, #22, #56 and change - which is what Beane agreed to with Denver? 

 

And with the way the draft unfolded, there was a good chance, we would have still gotten Edmunds and a first round talent at corner, not to mention two additional second rounders in the deepest draft we have had in years. Not to mention, since Beane knew Denver wanted him - maybe even pry a third rounder from Denver to let them select Chubb and we get Allen at #5.

 

That said, I understand why Beane did not even attempt the trade. Dorsey was so secretive about his picks that everyone was surprised when he went CB. I have no doubt that if we knew Browns were going CB, Beane would have attempted this trade - just see what he was willing to give up for #5 and see if Tre (yes we all love him) is worth all that draft capital.

 

 

 

Because Beane is not an idiot.

Tree white was a top10 cb as a rookie.

You don't trade that away.

He still got Allen AND Edmunds.

You are guessing hindsight on a draft, which makes no sense.

If we take Allen at #4, it changes every single upcoming pick, it's a butterfly effect.

Just stop the crusade.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/10/2018 at 6:43 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Anyway, this tangent is as pointless as the OP of this dumb thread.  In fact, how is this thread 5 pages, might be the dumbest thread of the offseason lmao

 

Not even close.

[Tyrod's friend]

Some crazy "what-if" but it's a cold Saturday so I'll play along ... 

My presumption is that the OP wants us to walk away from this without White, and Cleveland is willing to make that trade even-up. I won't debate whether or not they've fired their GM after that decision, or whether Beane is the kind of wheeler dealer to draft a success then trade it immediately, but ...

 

4, Josh Allen (QB for CB)
12, DB of various names - Ward, Minkah, James, Alexander, whomever I don't care

16, Trumaine, LB

53, I'm willing to say the Bills move up 14 spots and get the likes of Daniels, C. It's a cheap move.

56, WR (Washington, DJC?) OT (Brown?O'Neill?)

(personally, I'd be in a whole different direction and I think Beane would too. He'd take Trumaine at 12, keep 22 - maybe move up a little bit for a DB like Hughes/Alexander and then use 65 on some very, very sweet talent at the top of the 3rd round.)

Anyways ... all of that, for Tre White? GTFO here. All day, all day long. White is promising. A fine CB. But Tre White is not worth the 4th, 53rd and 56th pick in the draft. What the GM does isn't part of my equation. 
Cheers,
A 

 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[frostbitmic]

Tre was a stud as a rookie and should continue getting better ... I would've passed on pick #4

[IgotBILLStopay]

11 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Some crazy "what-if" but it's a cold Saturday so I'll play along ... 

My presumption is that the OP wants us to walk away from this without White, and Cleveland is willing to make that trade even-up. I won't debate whether or not they've fired their GM after that decision, or whether Beane is the kind of wheeler dealer to draft a success then trade it immediately, but ...

 

4, Josh Allen (QB for CB)
12, DB of various names - Ward, Minkah, James, Alexander, whomever I don't care

16, Trumaine, LB

53, I'm willing to say the Bills move up 14 spots and get the likes of Daniels, C. It's a cheap move.

56, WR (Washington, DJC?) OT (Brown?O'Neill?)

(personally, I'd be in a whole different direction and I think Beane would too. He'd take Trumaine at 12, keep 22 - maybe move up a little bit for a DB like Hughes/Alexander and then use 65 on some very, very sweet talent at the top of the 3rd round.)

Anyways ... all of that, for Tre White? GTFO here. All day, all day long. White is promising. A fine CB. But Tre White is not worth the 4th, 53rd and 56th pick in the draft. What the GM does isn't part of my equation. 
Cheers,
A 

 

Thanks for making my point. There are at least 10 posters in this thread who have argued that Tre >>>Ward. So if even some part of the Cleveland brass agrees with them they should be willing to consider Tre In exchange for the 4th pick which was Ward.

 

And as you pointed out, we make out like bandits in terms of draft capital. And yet a majority of the posters say they would not make the trade from a Bills point of view.

 

It is another way of saying Dorsey's pick at 4 was such a gigantic reach. I was just trying to take advantage of that reach from the Bills side.

[Aussie Joe]

So they do the trade and pick Allen at 4 and Edmunds at 12 who they both got anyway..

 

So you are really trading Tre for 22, 53,56 and 65... they probably take Phillips with 56 or 65 I think as well..

 

I dont know... logically you give Tre up for that return but I really think Tre is going to be something special...

[IgotBILLStopay]

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

So they do the trade and pick Allen at 4 and Edmunds at 12 who they both got anyway..

 

So you are really trading Tre for 22, 53,56 and 65... they probably take Phillips with 56 or 65 I think as well..

 

I dont know... logically you give Tre up for that return but I really think Tre is going to be something special...

Summarized perfectly

[SouthNYfan]

7 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

So they do the trade and pick Allen at 4 and Edmunds at 12 who they both got anyway..

 

So you are really trading Tre for 22, 53,56 and 65... they probably take Phillips with 56 or 65 I think as well..

 

I dont know... logically you give Tre up for that return but I really think Tre is going to be something special...

 

56 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Summarized perfectly

 

Can summarize even better:

Since they still want Phillips, probably at #53 because they were high on him, you're now left with this:

 

Gone:

Tre White

 

Received:

#22

#56

#65

 

So you're selecting a CB there, to replace White, who was available?

Let's just assume it was jaire Alexander, who went to gb at #18 because they took Ward there, since they wanted a CB.

 

You also have to factor in the salary differences:

 

Using the rookie wage scale for this year you have:

 

#4 @ $29.439  vs.  #7 @ $21.374

 

#12 @ $14.95 vs. #16 @ $12.73

 

#53 @ $5.2 vs #96 @ $3.4

 

Tree white total was @ $10 (3 years left $2.3 this year, $7.5 left over 3)

 

The #22 pick, which you would most likely be replacing tre white with was:

 

#22 @ $13.3 

 

Those differences add up to:

+$8 million for Allen 

+$4 million for Edmunds

+$2 million for Phillips

+$5.2 for Alexander, and +1 year

 

So now, you have:

 

Tree white

 

For

 

Alexander

#56

#65

+$19.2 in extra salary SPENT over 4 years, or about $4.8 million each year (AKA less cap)

 

James Washington (wr) and dj chark (wr) both available @ #56, and #65 is a wildcard position, probably another cb.

 

All for what?

 

A massive downgrade at CB#1 (white to Alexander), Washington/chark, #65, and LESS cap space?

 

I'll stick with what we have.

Please put this to bed.

 

 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

 

Can summarize even better:

Since they still want Phillips, probably at #53 because they were high on him, you're now left with this:

 

Gone:

Tre White

 

Received:

#22

#56

#65

 

So you're selecting a CB there, to replace White, who was available?

Let's just assume it was jaire Alexander, who went to gb at #18 because they took Ward there, since they wanted a CB.

 

You also have to factor in the salary differences:

 

Using the rookie wage scale for this year you have:

 

#4 @ $29.439  vs.  #7 @ $21.374

 

#12 @ $14.95 vs. #16 @ $12.73

 

#53 @ $5.2 vs #96 @ $3.4

 

Tree white total was @ $10 (3 years left $2.3 this year, $7.5 left over 3)

 

The #22 pick, which you would most likely be replacing tre white with was:

 

#22 @ $13.3 

 

Those differences add up to:

+$8 million for Allen 

+$4 million for Edmunds

+$2 million for Phillips

+$5.2 for Alexander, and +1 year

 

So now, you have:

 

Tree white

 

For

 

Alexander

#56

#65

+$19.2 in extra salary SPENT over 4 years, or about $4.8 million each year (AKA less cap)

 

James Washington (wr) and dj chark (wr) both available @ #56, and #65 is a wildcard position, probably another cb.

 

All for what?

 

A massive downgrade at CB#1 (white to Alexander), Washington/chark, #65, and LESS cap space?

 

I'll stick with what we have.

Please put this to bed.

 

 

 

Thank you for taking the time to respond. But there are some problems with that analysis. I am sure the Bills were high on several players other than Phillips who went between 53 and 96. And you forgot #96 in your comparison of scenarios. 

 

The correct comparison is to keep Philips at 96 and leave 53, 56 and 65 open. 

 

Your cap calculations are not right. Cap in early years on rookie deals is less than later years. Also the replacement first round quarterback will have an extra year on the rookie deal which itself is worth at least 10 mill. That itself will dwarf any cap ramifications regarding rookie deals. Everyone knows first round rookie deals are the best value for money in the NFL. 

 

Are you really arguing that Tre (and I love having him) is worth more than a first round CB replacement with an extra year plus #53 plus #56 plus #65? If so, great. Regardless, I do hope Tre goes to every Pro Bowl in the next 10 years and leads to the promised land. But at this point, as an armchair GM, which side of the trade do you see value? The more I analyze, the more surprising Dorsey's pick of a CB at 4 is.

 

My only point is that the trade I suggested is not really as bad a trade from the Bills point of view as you made it sound, no?

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Thank you for taking the time to respond. But there are some problems with that analysis. I am sure the Bills were high on several players other than Phillips who went between 53 and 96. And you forgot #96 in your comparison of scenarios. 

 

The correct comparison is to keep Philips at 96 and leave 53, 56 and 65 open. 

 

Your cap calculations are not right. Cap in early years on rookie deals is less than later years. Also the replacement first round quarterback will have an extra year on the rookie deal which itself is worth at least 10 mill. That itself will dwarf any cap ramifications regarding rookie deals. Everyone knows first round rookie deals are the best value for money in the NFL. 

 

Are you really arguing that Tre (and I love having him) is worth more than a first round CB replacement with an extra year plus #53 plus #56 plus #65? If so, great. Regardless, I do hope Tre goes to every Pro Bowl in the next 10 years and leads to the promised land. But at this point, as an armchair GM, which side of the trade do you see value? The more I analyze, the more surprising Dorsey's pick of a CB at 4 is.

 

My only point is that the trade I suggested is not really as bad a trade from the Bills point of view as you made it sound, no?

 

They tried to get back up for Christian Kirk. He would have been a 2nd round pick of the Bills if the opportunity presented itself.