Predictions For The Bills Surprise Cuts/Trades of The 2018 Preseason

[elroy16]

Murphy isn't going anywhere, that's just crazy talk. He's going to start and play a ton of snaps. 

 

Quote

But his coming out party was in 2016, when he registered 10 sacks, 15 QB hits (2nd-most) and 30 QB hurries, and that was not even as a starter. He typically started on the bench behind Ryan Kerrigan, but the two would rotate frequently. When he was on the field, that toughness, length, hand usage, and motor created a ton of production.

 

In 2016, Murphy was one of the better run defenders among all outside linebackers. He was ranked 9th in run stop percentage (6.3%), which included 21 solo tackles and 15 run stops, per Pro Football Focus. He is very good at using his 33 7’8″ arm length to stack and set edges.

 

https://www.cover1.net/film-breakdown-de-trent-murphy/

 

 

I don't see them trading Shady and they're definitely not releasing him. I doubt a team is going to trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick for a 30 year old running back that's making $9 million for the next two years. He's also going to be the number 1 option this year and certainly has the DNA that McDermott likes. It's not like with Sammy where you questioned his motivation. 

 

 

John Miller would be a slight surprise just because they don't have a lot of depth inside, but I wouldn't be shocked. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I don't understand the want to move on from young guys on cheap deals.

He's making less than 800k a year, has 3 years (including this upcoming) at that price, I see zero reason to not just keep him as insurance backup until the end at least.

You aren't going to get a guy for that cheap to replace him.

There are guys out there in the same price range and he has PS eligibility. Peterman is absolutely in jeopardy. Would the Bills rather keep Rafael Bush as an experienced safety that can contribute on special teams or a QB that will never see the field? Would the Bills rather keep Connor McDermott as a young swing tackle or Peterman? The answer is who knows. The position player is certainly more likely to contribute but Peterman plays a more important position. At the same time you can sign a guy like Shaun Hill or Matt Moore if there is an injury to a QB. Are the Bills better off with Peterman or Matt Moore? 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Could just be me, but essentially if the Bills cut McCarron they will have paid him $4.9M to smile at the microphones a few times and play catch in shorts.

 

I don't think they gave him $4.9M guaranteed at signing to send the Turk after him even if, by some chance, he looks similar to Peterman in TC and preseason.

 

Preseason is not regular season as we know - some preseason heroes don't look good for-real.  $4.9M is a lot of jellybeans to pay a guy for a training camp competition with last year's rookie. 

 

IMHO, Beane and McDermott decided to swap McCarron in and Taylor out for a reason, and that reason had to do with keeping a guy who has been in the league a few years (and who had some specific qualities they felt that McCarron had and Taylor did not), whether he's playing or backup.

 

Just my view.

 

 

 

Oh McCarron would have to look pretty bad for it to happen. I agree it is unlikely. But there is a scenario I could envisage where it happens. 

[SouthNYfan]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There are guys out there in the same price range and he has PS eligibility. Peterman is absolutely in jeopardy. Would the Bills rather keep Rafael Bush as an experienced safety that can contribute on special teams or a QB that will never see the field? Would the Bills rather keep Connor McDermott as a young swing tackle or Peterman? The answer is who knows. The position player is certainly more likely to contribute but Peterman plays a more important position. At the same time you can sign a guy like Shaun Hill or Matt Moore if there is an injury to a QB. Are the Bills better off with Peterman or Matt Moore? 

 

Peterman.

You need 3 QBs.

Especially when you have a rookie you don't want to ruin by throwing him to the wolves if the starter gets hurt.

Moore would be $1+mil NFL minimum bc of his years of experience.

Peterman is 800k a year

We take $200k in dead cap to cut him.

That means cutting him and signing Moore is a net of $1.2+ for Moore vs 790k for Peterman.

Stick with the young guy who might improve.

[Aussie Joe]

McDermott & Beane are always preaching versatility - players being able to play multiple positions and special teams.

 

You can see this in action with the players they bring in.

 

Given this depth they have on the squad,I think they keep 3 QB’s this year and more than likely the three they have now..

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Peterman.

You need 3 QBs.

Especially when you have a rookie you don't want to ruin by throwing him to the wolves if the starter gets hurt.

Moore would be $1+mil NFL minimum bc of his years of experience.

Peterman is 800k a year

We take $200k in dead cap to cut him.

That means cutting him and signing Moore is a net of $1.2+ for Moore vs 790k for Peterman.

Stick with the young guy who might improve.

Less than half of the league employed 3 QBs last year. The cap space is beyond irrelevant if we are talking about an in season addition. That couldn’t be less of a factor.

 

It all comes down to where Allen is by week 3 of the preseason. If he is looking like the starter (or at least the #2) where does that leave Peterman? It leaves him as a distant 3rd that isn’t the plan for the future (Allen is). If Allen looks overwhelmed and completely raw Peterman probably makes the team as he buys the team weeks/months to get Allen closer to ready. 

 

If it is going to be McCarron and then Allen by opening day it is more likely than not that Peterman won’t be on the 53. They will try to put him on the PS. If someone signs him to their active roster, so be it. He was a 5th round pick that played poorly. The Saints cut Grayson after a season and he was a 3rd. If that happens and McCarron or Allen gets hurt the Bills can add a FA QB like Matt Moore to get them through. It isn’t all that different than when we added Orton.

 

The plan is for Allen to be the guy. Peterman’s  place depends on how far along Allen is. 

[JohnC]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There are guys out there in the same price range and he has PS eligibility. Peterman is absolutely in jeopardy. Would the Bills rather keep Rafael Bush as an experienced safety that can contribute on special teams or a QB that will never see the field? Would the Bills rather keep Connor McDermott as a young swing tackle or Peterman? The answer is who knows. The position player is certainly more likely to contribute but Peterman plays a more important position. At the same time you can sign a guy like Shaun Hill or Matt Moore if there is an injury to a QB. Are the Bills better off with Peterman or Matt Moore?

If Peterman is with the team during training camp and into the season he would be kept because he knows the system. If you wanted to bring in a Shaun Hill or Matt Moore it would make sense to bring one of them in before the season starts. I just don't see that happening. I don't see where keeping Peterman as a first or second backup should jeopardize the roster spot of any player worth keeping because his salary is so small. It's my opinion that Peterman will be on the roster this year. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Less than half of the league employed 3 QBs last year. The cap space is beyond irrelevant if we are talking about an in season addition. That couldn’t be less of a factor.

 

It all comes down to where Allen is by week 3 of the preseason. If he is looking like the starter (or at least the #2) where does that leave Peterman? It leaves him as a distant 3rd that isn’t the plan for the future (Allen is). If Allen looks overwhelmed and completely raw Peterman probably makes the team as he buys the team weeks/months to get Allen closer to ready. 

 

If it is going to be McCarron and then Allen by opening day it is more likely than not that Peterman won’t be on the 53. They will try to put him on the PS. If someone signs him to their active roster, so be it. He was a 5th round pick that played poorly. The Saints cut Grayson after a season and he was a 3rd. If that happens and McCarron or Allen gets hurt the Bills can add a FA QB like Matt Moore to get them through. It isn’t all that different than when we added Orton.

 

The plan is for Allen to be the guy. Peterman’s  place depends on how far along Allen is. 

 

 

C'mon man you know the agenda.    Peterman is the first born of many mothers on this board.    He's the eternal little boy full of potential........Nathan PeterPan.

 

There used to be a Jeff Tuel following that was small but dedicated to finding out why we can't be more patient and invested in a low-ceiling/low-pedigree camp arm? 

 

It's bizarre how this happens but it does.       If the Bills keep Nate all camp........and he is then cut........he will almost certainly clear waivers because everyone has a Nate PeterPan or two on their roster already.    He's far from unique.

[Aussie Joe]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Less than half of the league employed 3 QBs last year. The cap space is beyond irrelevant if we are talking about an in season addition. That couldn’t be less of a factor.

 

It all comes down to where Allen is by week 3 of the preseason. If he is looking like the starter (or at least the #2) where does that leave Peterman? It leaves him as a distant 3rd that isn’t the plan for the future (Allen is). If Allen looks overwhelmed and completely raw Peterman probably makes the team as he buys the team weeks/months to get Allen closer to ready. 

 

If it is going to be McCarron and then Allen by opening day it is more likely than not that Peterman won’t be on the 53. They will try to put him on the PS. If someone signs him to their active roster, so be it. He was a 5th round pick that played poorly. The Saints cut Grayson after a season and he was a 3rd. If that happens and McCarron or Allen gets hurt the Bills can add a FA QB like Matt Moore to get them through. It isn’t all that different than when we added Orton.

 

The plan is for Allen to be the guy. Peterman’s  place depends on how far along Allen is. 

 

The Saints have one of the best QB’s in the League... slightly different to the Bills situation..

 

I can see AJ getting traded sometime in the next 12 months, so would make some sense to hang onto NP and keep that option open...

 

Also right or wrong, they started Peterman in a game so that tells me they saw something in him that might lead them to keep him around another year just to be sure..

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I think Matt Moore and Derek Anderson are both still available and both have ties to Beane. I'm certainly not saying McC should get released, but if he proves to not be worth a roster spot there are veteran options with more experience.

If they liked Moore or Anderson so much as leaders or veteran presence, why would they have not just signed one of them instead?

 

And I dont think that McCarron was just an "well he is the best of what's left after everyone else is taken" choice. I think with the "legal tampering period" and in discussions with his agent, the Bill's knew what the market would be like and probably let his agent know that they are interested but signing a QB was not the top priority and the front office was going to be focused on other positions and they made a deal that they would circle back around once the big names settled. The Bill's were the only QB needy team left where he had a chance to be the #1.

 

For this front office to dump AJ for Peterman, AJ would have to be unimaginably bad in training camp, like making EJs tent throw look accurate bad for him not to be a lock for at least the backup job. Either that or peterman would have to show up looking like Brady 2.0

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

If they liked Moore or Anderson so much as leaders or veteran presence, why would they have not just signed one of them instead? [1]

 

And I dont think that McCarron was just an "well he is the best of what's left after everyone else is taken" choice. I think with the "legal tampering period" and in discussions with his agent, the Bill's knew what the market would be like and probably let his agent know that they are interested but signing a QB was not the top priority and the front office was going to be focused on other positions and they made a deal that they would circle back around once the big names settled. The Bill's were the only QB needy team left where he had a chance to be the #1.

 

For this front office to dump AJ for Peterman, AJ would have to be unimaginably bad in training camp, like making EJs tent throw look accurate bad for him not to be a lock for at least the backup job. Either that or peterman would have to show up looking like Brady 2.0 [2]

[1] There is very little to go off of with McCarron, as opposed to the other guys where you know what you're getting. They took a shot on someone with less experience and potentially a higher ceiling. Not all that surprising.

 

[2] I made no mention of dumping McC for Peterman. In this scenario neither of them would be on the roster.

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

C'mon man you know the agenda.    Peterman is the first born of many mothers on this board.    He's the eternal little boy full of potential........Nathan PeterPan.

 

There used to be a Jeff Tuel following that was small but dedicated to finding out why we can't be more patient and invested in a low-ceiling/low-pedigree camp arm? 

 

It's bizarre how this happens but it does.       If the Bills keep Nate all camp........and he is then cut........he will almost certainly clear waivers because everyone has a Nate PeterPan or two on their roster already.    He's far from unique.

That’s kind of the point. You can throw a rock and find a guy as good as him. If he is number 2 breaking camp he will be here. If he’s going to be number 3 then I think it’s unlikely (although he goes to the PS).

 

The cap space is totally irrelevant. He will barely even be in the top 51 and any vet that they may sign instead is not much different. That isn’t a factor here. The decision will be made entirely based on the roster breakdown. Peterman isn’t competing with a QB for a spot. He’s competing with ST players, OL, etc... Do they feel that there is a guy on the back of the roster that they need to protect? 

[formerlyofCtown]

15 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1. Lorenzo Alexander - I don't think he will make it out of camp.  If he does he will be just a special teams player. I still believe they will add a veteran OLB prior to the start of the season.

2. Ducasse - I think Miller will win the RG spot back.  I would not be surprised to be 100% wrong here though.  Ducasse played better the final five games.  I just think Miller is a bigger, stronger, straight line blocker and will be more effective in a new scheme.  But Ducasse was awful the first half of the season and Miller still couldn't win the job.  

3. Peterman - The Bills will go with just two QBs and will hope they can sign Peterman to the practice squad

4. Kyle Williams - he wasn't that good last year.  He will be worse this year.  With Star occupying more blockers perhaps I will be wrong.  With limited snaps maybe he can be effective as an inside pass rusher.  He has never been great against the run.  I hope I am wrong, but I see a retirement announcement a week into camp

5. Trent Murphy - I think he will be boom or bust. He is a PED guy coming off injury.  If the Bills had added a DE in the second or third round I would say Murphy would be more than likely cut.  At this point it will probably be 50/50 as the DE depth is terrible.

 

***Wildcard***

Zay Jones.  All things being equal it is less than 1% chance a second year second round draft pick WR gets cut. Then again what are the odds you find yourself naked yelling at your brother who is stopping you from finding Jesus on the 30th floor?  And what is the chance Zay dropped more passes than his brother's apartment building has floors???

 

So we are going to cut Murphy with almost 8 mil and Kyle 4.5 of 5.5 in garauntees.  They like Peterman so I doubt it.

[Kirby Jackson]

37 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

The Saints have one of the best QB’s in the League... slightly different to the Bills situation..

 

I can see AJ getting traded sometime in the next 12 months, so would make some sense to hang onto NP and keep that option open...

 

Also right or wrong, they started Peterman in a game so that tells me they saw something in him that might lead them to keep him around another year just to be sure..

Grayson was drafted to be the heir apparent (potentially). That is not the case with Peterman. They just watched him for a year and it was clear that he wasn’t going to be that so they dumped him. 

 

Peterman has a chance to make the team for sure. The point is that he definitely isn’t a lock. 

[Luxy312]

Lots of idle speculation, but not a lot of actual thought put into this based on contracts.  Let's start with guys that will carry a bigger cap hit being cut than they will on the roster.  McCarron, Lawson, Jones, and DiMarco all carry additional dead money hits to let go, significantly beyond what they're going to count this year being on the roster.  McCarron isn't going anywhere.  He's basically the starter to boot, pending a knock your socks off camp and preseason from Allen.  Lawson was decent when healthy last year, albeit not a star.  I see him as the heir apparent to Jerry Hughes, who hasn't had a good season in three years.  With only one more year on his contract, the Bills could save $7.5m next year by letting Hughes go or forcing him to renegotiate if he has a similar year as the last few.  Jones is too cheap not to wait to see if he improves from his inconsistent play last season.  If the system that Daboll is going to run doesn't involve much in the way of fullback play, DiMarco could go, which would accelerate another $950k in dead cap this year.  Peterman comes so cheap that I can't imagine not keeping him on as backup to McCarron, in the event that Allen doesn't light it up.  With that said, if Allen climbs into the #2 role or heaven forbid becomes the starter, I think Peterman could be a casualty going to the practice squad to make room on the active roster.

In terms of other potential pickups for Buffalo, I could see another veteran as insurance for Jones if he doesn't pan out.  It's hard to say they would think this way with 13 guys on the roster (4 of which are rookies), but it's possible.  The Bills did meet with Kevin Minter, so I do think the another MLB could potentially be out there that they could add for depth.  Barring a debacle, Edmunds should be the week 1 starter at the position.  Besides Minter, I could see them signing a Cushing or Timmons, but certainly not to start.  

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Less than half of the league employed 3 QBs last year. The cap space is beyond irrelevant if we are talking about an in season addition. That couldn’t be less of a factor.

 

It all comes down to where Allen is by week 3 of the preseason. If he is looking like the starter (or at least the #2) where does that leave Peterman? It leaves him as a distant 3rd that isn’t the plan for the future (Allen is). If Allen looks overwhelmed and completely raw Peterman probably makes the team as he buys the team weeks/months to get Allen closer to ready. 

 

If it is going to be McCarron and then Allen by opening day it is more likely than not that Peterman won’t be on the 53. They will try to put him on the PS. If someone signs him to their active roster, so be it. He was a 5th round pick that played poorly. The Saints cut Grayson after a season and he was a 3rd. If that happens and McCarron or Allen gets hurt the Bills can add a FA QB like Matt Moore to get them through. It isn’t all that different than when we added Orton.

 

The plan is for Allen to be the guy. Peterman’s  place depends on how far along Allen is. 

 

A few of those teams that employed 2qbs picked up a third, so it was probably about 14-15 teams that ran with two.

They all had zero question marks at starting QB.

There is no reason to not keep AJ and Nathan.

I would rather keep a guy who might get better and is young and cheap than emergency sign Matt Moore if our starter goes down or sucks.

If his cap # doesn't matter then why cut him?

 

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

C'mon man you know the agenda.    Peterman is the first born of many mothers on this board.    He's the eternal little boy full of potential........Nathan PeterPan.

 

There used to be a Jeff Tuel following that was small but dedicated to finding out why we can't be more patient and invested in a low-ceiling/low-pedigree camp arm? 

 

It's bizarre how this happens but it does.       If the Bills keep Nate all camp........and he is then cut........he will almost certainly clear waivers because everyone has a Nate PeterPan or two on their roster already.    He's far from unique.

 

C'mon man there is no agenda with me.

My only point is that he's a cheap backup option who is already on the roster, and is young so still might improve to be a serviceable backup.

That's literally my only hope for him.

So no, I have no agenda.

Keep trying.

[Punching Bag]

11 hours ago, eball said:

3.  No way the Bills go with a rookie and McCarron as their only two QBs.

 

How does P5t5rman add to Bills QB pool?  Last year the Bills went with Taylor and a rookie so can see no reason why they would not do this again.  P5t5rman should be pushing for trades!

17 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

5. Trent Murphy - I think he will be boom or bust. He is a PED guy coming off injury.  If the Bills had added a DE in the second or third round I would say Murphy would be more than likely cut.  At this point it will probably be 50/50 as the DE depth is terrible.

 

I think Trent Murphy will be used more as a LB than as a straight DE so competition is less.

10 hours ago, eball said:

I think Peterman is the most likely "surprise" cut, and it would only be a surprise because of how much McD talked him up last year.  I still don't think the Bills will go into the season with just two QBs so that means somebody else will be on the roster besides Allen and McCarron.

 

Maybe he has been talked up so Beane can trade him when someone gets hurt.

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It entirely depends on camp and pre-season.  If both McCarron and Allen show well then what role is Peterman serving?  Other than simply being another body?

 

The only way I see it making sense to carry Peterman as a 3rd Quarterback is if there really isn't much separation from anyone in camp.  

 

He is interception practice for DBs.

Do you think it is a coincidence that they got so many interceptions?  They practiced it.

[Chandler#81]

12 hours ago, PIZ said:

I don't think there's much left to trade.  Maybe Shaq, but I thought he would have been traded during the draft.  I want them to keep him.  The dline right now is big like Jacksonville.  Could be dominant.

 

I think there'll be some waiver claims or FA pickups after the June 1 cuts.  I would look at the rosters of teams that have solid oline play and deep rosters.  Same with WRs.  

 

 

I agree. The star power evaporated in Beane’s 1st year -sans Shady. We’ll have to swap waiver wire for waiver wire. Next years Yuuge$$ & another Draft should fill out the roster though.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

A few of those teams that employed 2qbs picked up a third, so it was probably about 14-15 teams that ran with two.

They all had zero question marks at starting QB.

There is no reason to not keep AJ and Nathan.

I would rather keep a guy who might get better and is young and cheap than emergency sign Matt Moore if our starter goes down or sucks.

If his cap # doesn't matter then why cut him?

 

 

C'mon man there is no agenda with me.

My only point is that he's a cheap backup option who is already on the roster, and is young so still might improve to be a serviceable backup.

That's literally my only hope for him.

So no, I have no agenda.

Keep trying.

Why cut him? The only reason to cut him is to  use the roster spot elsewhere. Say they like the development of Connor McDermott or Austin Proehl, what do they do? What if one of those receivers emerges as a Marcus Easley type of gunner? What about Ray-Ray as a return man? You can only keep 53 on the roster.

 

The 3rd QB is the least likely guy on your roster to ever play. That is why the majority of teams kept 2. We are at a point now where so many teams kept 2 guys that some quality options remain out there. Shaun Hill and Matt Moore were two that I mentioned. If McCarron/Allen gets hurt would the Bills be better off with a depth chart of McCarron/Allen and Moore or McCarron/Allen and Peterman? That’s what we are talking about because all of those guys not named Allen aren’t ever going to be more than the 2nd option here. 

[Buffalo03]

18 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1. Lorenzo Alexander - I don't think he will make it out of camp.  If he does he will be just a special teams player. I still believe they will add a veteran OLB prior to the start of the season.

2. Ducasse - I think Miller will win the RG spot back.  I would not be surprised to be 100% wrong here though.  Ducasse played better the final five games.  I just think Miller is a bigger, stronger, straight line blocker and will be more effective in a new scheme.  But Ducasse was awful the first half of the season and Miller still couldn't win the job.  

3. Peterman - The Bills will go with just two QBs and will hope they can sign Peterman to the practice squad

4. Kyle Williams - he wasn't that good last year.  He will be worse this year.  With Star occupying more blockers perhaps I will be wrong.  With limited snaps maybe he can be effective as an inside pass rusher.  He has never been great against the run.  I hope I am wrong, but I see a retirement announcement a week into camp

5. Trent Murphy - I think he will be boom or bust. He is a PED guy coming off injury.  If the Bills had added a DE in the second or third round I would say Murphy would be more than likely cut.  At this point it will probably be 50/50 as the DE depth is terrible.

 

***Wildcard***

Zay Jones.  All things being equal it is less than 1% chance a second year second round draft pick WR gets cut. Then again what are the odds you find yourself naked yelling at your brother who is stopping you from finding Jesus on the 30th floor?  And what is the chance Zay dropped more passes than his brother's apartment building has floors???

 

Can Edmunds play OLB? If so I'm fine with cutting Lorenzo or possibly moving him to back up. Then we can pick up Navarro Bowman to play the middle LB. I would love a starting LB core of Edmunds, Bowman, Milano.