Predictions For The Bills Surprise Cuts/Trades of The 2018 Preseason

[GunnerBill]

I do think that both 'Zo and Peterman are on the bubble.  More chance that Peterman gets cut of the two but neither of them ending up on the cutting room floor would shock me.  

[Bills Pimpin']

6 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1. Lorenzo Alexander - I don't think he will make it out of camp.  If he does he will be just a special teams player. I still believe they will add a veteran OLB prior to the start of the season.

2. Ducasse - I think Miller will win the RG spot back.  I would not be surprised to be 100% wrong here though.  Ducasse played better the final five games.  I just think Miller is a bigger, stronger, straight line blocker and will be more effective in a new scheme.  But Ducasse was awful the first half of the season and Miller still couldn't win the job.  

3. Peterman - The Bills will go with just two QBs and will hope they can sign Peterman to the practice squad

4. Kyle Williams - he wasn't that good last year.  He will be worse this year.  With Star occupying more blockers perhaps I will be wrong.  With limited snaps maybe he can be effective as an inside pass rusher.  He has never been great against the run.  I hope I am wrong, but I see a retirement announcement a week into camp

5. Trent Murphy - I think he will be boom or bust. He is a PED guy coming off injury.  If the Bills had added a DE in the second or third round I would say Murphy would be more than likely cut.  At this point it will probably be 50/50 as the DE depth is terrible.

 

***Wildcard***

Zay Jones.  All things being equal it is less than 1% chance a second year second round draft pick WR gets cut. Then again what are the odds you find yourself naked yelling at your brother who is stopping you from finding Jesus on the 30th floor?  And what is the chance Zay dropped more passes than his brother's apartment building has floors???

 

Wow, you put in a lot of time for a post that is so wrong it is hard to fathom. I disagree with every one of these and could go into detail, but I will just say one thing that encompasses them all... These are all McDermott and Beane guys either by picking them up or keeping them for leadership and will be integral parts of the makeup of the roster.

Terrible take on this subject.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

Back in May 2017, who would have guessed that by Week 1, the Bills would part with Sammy Watkins, Ron Darby, Reggie Ragland, and Johnathan Williams(who was penciled in at RB2), among other players that we figured had a roster spot?

 

One thing is for sure - the Beane-McDermott admininstration is not afraid to make a tough and unpopular decisions with the fan base.

 

So make your predictions here.  Who in this roster do you feel might be a candidate for a surprise cut or a surprise trade.  Here are a few thoughts:

 

Shaq Lawson - This is a huge year for Shaq.  After signing Trent Murphy to a pretty big deal, Shaq is going to have to perform well to get regular snaps at DE.  While he is expected to be part of the Bills D-line rotation, it's clear that McDermott has some questions as to whether he can be a starting DE.  I do feel that this coaching staff will give Shaq every chance to succeed, but this a huge year for him.  He's in the 3rd year of a rookie deal, and just like Reggie Ragland, if he gets buried on the depth chart I can see the Bills moving on his for a mid-round draft pick.   He'll be competing with Eddie Yarborough and Tenny Palepoi for spots, so nothing is a given.  

 

Ryan Groy - He is in the final year of a 2 year $5,000,000 deal.  The Bills have him listed at guard and I know some are penciling him in at a starting guard spot.  However the coaching staff seemed very reluctant to use Groy at Guard when Richie Incognito was injured.  Is this a telling sign that they don't want him playing guard?  Or that they prefer him at Center?  Either way, with Wyatt Teller, Vlad Ducasse, and Jon Miller, there is definitely competition at that position.  The team also signed Russell Bodine for essentially the same money as Groy.  The difference is more money is guaranteed for Bodine, essentially making Groy more of a candidate for release. 

 

Jon Miller - in a situation similar to both Groy and Lawson.  There's a lot of competition at guard and Mller easily could find himself as the odd man out.  Like Shaq, I think coaches will give him every chance to succeed under a new offensive system.  But if he's 3rd on the depth chart, I see the Bills looking to trade him for a very low round draft pick.  Did I mention he was a Doug Whaley draft pick?  Not many of Whaley's guys are left around.

 

Adolphus Washington - Another Doug Whaley guy who will be competing for time on the defensive.  Like Lawson and Miller, I think there's a good chance he could be gone his falls too far on the depth chart.  I don't feel that the trade market will be as strong for Washington so perhaps that one reason why he could stay.  

 

Andre Holmes- Holmes made some modest contributions on offense and special teams last year, which makes him a valuable member of a very thin WR class.  But you'll notice that the Bills WR Roster is pretty stacked in terms of numbers.  For Holmes to get a roster spot he will have to contend with vets like Jeremy Kerley and Rod Streeter, as well as younger players like Kaelin Clay, Brandon Reilly, and rookies Austin Proehl and Ray Ray Morton.  Special teams ability should be an advantage for Davis, but is that enough for him to stay?  It should be interesting.

 

Other potential candidates, though I feel these are less likely:

 

Jordan Mills (Does Connor McDermott make him expendable?) 

Tavares Cadet (Watch for Marcus Murphy and Taiwan Jones)

Ramon Humber (Can Tanner Valejo Step up?)

Patrick DiMarco (Will Daboll utilize the FB in his offense?)

Vlad Duccasse (Lots of compeition at OG)

Logan Thomas (Huge year for Logan)

 

So who are your top choices?

 

6 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1. Lorenzo Alexander - I don't think he will make it out of camp.  If he does he will be just a special teams player. I still believe they will add a veteran OLB prior to the start of the season.

2. Ducasse - I think Miller will win the RG spot back.  I would not be surprised to be 100% wrong here though.  Ducasse played better the final five games.  I just think Miller is a bigger, stronger, straight line blocker and will be more effective in a new scheme.  But Ducasse was awful the first half of the season and Miller still couldn't win the job.  

3. Peterman - The Bills will go with just two QBs and will hope they can sign Peterman to the practice squad

4. Kyle Williams - he wasn't that good last year.  He will be worse this year.  With Star occupying more blockers perhaps I will be wrong.  With limited snaps maybe he can be effective as an inside pass rusher.  He has never been great against the run.  I hope I am wrong, but I see a retirement announcement a week into camp

5. Trent Murphy - I think he will be boom or bust. He is a PED guy coming off injury.  If the Bills had added a DE in the second or third round I would say Murphy would be more than likely cut.  At this point it will probably be 50/50 as the DE depth is terrible.

 

***Wildcard***

Zay Jones.  All things being equal it is less than 1% chance a second year second round draft pick WR gets cut. Then again what are the odds you find yourself naked yelling at your brother who is stopping you from finding Jesus on the 30th floor?  And what is the chance Zay dropped more passes than his brother's apartment building has floors???

 

 

I'd agree with Washington from your original list or Kyle Williams, one of them likely will be gone as they just have too many DT on roster

 

doubt Shaq will go as he's cheap labor, on the other hand Lorax could be gone due to salary.  Maybe Holmes and/or Ducasse too I'd agree with.

 

[Bills Pimpin']

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I do think that both 'Zo and Peterman are on the bubble.  More chance that Peterman gets cut of the two but neither of them ending up on the cutting room floor would shock me.  

Zo is the elder statesman of the LB Corp and will be invaluable in that room with the addition of Edmunds and year 2 of Milano. Plus McD really gets off on that Leadership council ****. Plus he is still an absolute stud on special teams. No way he gets cut.

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Logan Thomas (Huge year for Logan)

 

 

I'd actually be surprised if Logan Thomas makes the roster.  He was atrocious when he got on the field in 2017. 

4 minutes ago, Bills Pimpin' said:

Zo is the elder statesman of the LB Corp and will be invaluable in that room with the addition of Edmunds and year 2 of Milano. Plus McD really gets off on that Leadership council ****. Plus he is still an absolute stud on special teams. No way he gets cut.

 

 

I certainly think he would be a surprise cut, but this is a surprise cut thread.  I think there comes a point when leadership doesn't balance out lack of production.  It happened with Fred Jackson, it happened a couple of years ago with Manny Lawson too - though I know a suspension played a part there.  Ultimately, 'Zo is overpaid, was poor for much of last season and has slowed down noticeably on special teams.  

Edited May 9, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Bills Pimpin']

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd actually be surprised if Logan Thomas makes the roster.  He was atrocious when he got on the field in 2017. 

 

I certainly think he would be a surprise cut, but this is a surprise cut thread.  I think there comes a point when leadership doesn't balance out lack of production.  It happened with Fred Jackson, it happened a couple of years ago with Manny Lawson too - though I know a suspension played a part there.  Ultimately, 'Zo is overpaid, was poor for much of last season and has slowed down noticeably on special teams.  

Zo is slightly overpaid, I agree with that, but bringing up Fred Jackson kind of makes my point for the way McD thinks. IMO Jackson was a ****ty cut and I don't think McD would have cut him for leadership reasons. Whaleys mindset in doing so is a reason he wasn't successful. That's the leadership/culture part that McD gets off on and the previous regime ignored. Hence, less talent, make playoffs. 

 

Now Logan Thomas..... He might get cut, but would not be a surprise I agree.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Bills Pimpin'

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Bills Pimpin' said:

Zo is slightly overpaid, I agree with that, but bringing up Fred Jackson kind of makes my point for the way McD thinks. IMO Jackson was a ****ty cut and I don't think McD would have cut him for leadership reasons. Whaleys mindset in doing so is a reason he wasn't successful. That's the leadership/culture part that McD gets off on and the previous regime ignored. Hence, less talent, make playoffs. 

 

Now Logan Thomas..... He might get cut, but would not be a surprise I agree.

 

I don't think 'Zo will be cut.  But you say it is impossible.  I say it certainly isn't impossible.  There are only about 12-20 players on this roster who are absolute locks. 'Zo is not one of them.  

[hemma]

I think Washington will at least need to try to try.

[eball]

I think Peterman is the most likely "surprise" cut, and it would only be a surprise because of how much McD talked him up last year.  I still don't think the Bills will go into the season with just two QBs so that means somebody else will be on the roster besides Allen and McCarron.

[vorpma]

8 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1. Lorenzo Alexander - I don't think he will make it out of camp.  If he does he will be just a special teams player. I still believe they will add a veteran OLB prior to the start of the season.

2. Ducasse - I think Miller will win the RG spot back.  I would not be surprised to be 100% wrong here though.  Ducasse played better the final five games.  I just think Miller is a bigger, stronger, straight line blocker and will be more effective in a new scheme.  But Ducasse was awful the first half of the season and Miller still couldn't win the job.  

3. Peterman - The Bills will go with just two QBs and will hope they can sign Peterman to the practice squad

4. Kyle Williams - he wasn't that good last year.  He will be worse this year.  With Star occupying more blockers perhaps I will be wrong.  With limited snaps maybe he can be effective as an inside pass rusher.  He has never been great against the run.  I hope I am wrong, but I see a retirement announcement a week into camp

5. Trent Murphy - I think he will be boom or bust. He is a PED guy coming off injury.  If the Bills had added a DE in the second or third round I would say Murphy would be more than likely cut.  At this point it will probably be 50/50 as the DE depth is terrible.

 

***Wildcard***

Zay Jones.  All things being equal it is less than 1% chance a second year second round draft pick WR gets cut. Then again what are the odds you find yourself naked yelling at your brother who is stopping you from finding Jesus on the 30th floor?  And what is the chance Zay dropped more passes than his brother's apartment building has floors???

 

Agree on Kyle Williams!

[DrDawkinstein]

I could see Washington getting axed, especially over Kyle.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, eball said:

I think Peterman is the most likely "surprise" cut, and it would only be a surprise because of how much McD talked him up last year.  I still don't think the Bills will go into the season with just two QBs so that means somebody else will be on the roster besides Allen and McCarron.

 

It entirely depends on camp and pre-season.  If both McCarron and Allen show well then what role is Peterman serving?  Other than simply being another body?

 

The only way I see it making sense to carry Peterman as a 3rd Quarterback is if there really isn't much separation from anyone in camp.  

[MJS]

Josh Allen would be a surprise cut.

[CommonCents]

Bodine. 

Miller.

Lawson.

 

All 3 of those guys could be cut/traded.

 

I think they like Lorax’s voice in the locker room so even if his role is drastically reduced they will keep him around. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being a positional coach after his playing days are done.

[Soda Popinski]

I think Lorenzo could be a surprise cut.   I don't see any other possibilities, maybe Hughes, but very VERY doubtful. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think 'Zo will be cut.  But you say it is impossible.  I say it certainly isn't impossible.  There are only about 12-20 players on this roster who are absolute locks. 'Zo is not one of them.  

 

I agree that he's not a lock.  However, who's replacing him?  

 

He was legit our best player on the field in the playoff game against Jax.  I'm not sure the 1.8 mil in cap savings is worth releasing a special teams contributor, and a player who can play both SAM and DE.

 

I could see trading lawson, as cutting him costs more than keeping him.  For those drawing a ragland parallel, he did start 10 games last year FWIW.  

Im hopeful that we cut mills TBH.

Edited May 9, 2018 by dneveu

[Tsaikotic]

I don't see a lot of surprise cuts this year...I see some next year tho (well some are surprise, some are just writing on the wall)

 

- I don't think Loraxe gets cut..this is his last year and he's a UFA in 2019...Beane is trying to keep the dead cap as low as possible, and though Loraxe only has a $1.85 Mil dead cap, I think his leadership/ST play gets him his last season with Bills

- I think this is Kyle's last season as well...look for next draft to be DT in the 1st or 2nd rounds...DT/DE is supposed to be deep in 2019 draft (though I don't think we lose enough games for Nick Bosa)

- this could be both Washington's and Lawson's last year as well...Lawson has lost weight and wants to prove he can play, so it's up to him whether he stays or not...Washington just hasn't played to his potential...I'd like to see him replaced next season as is only a $188,574 dead cap if cut in 2019

- Bodine stays this year but cut next year..his dead cap for this season is $2,150,000 but next season is only $500,000

 

as for this years cuts:

 

- Newhouse is only a $500,000 dead cap hit and is only on a 1 year contract...he could be cut also to help with, DARE i say it - comp pick for 2019...the more FA's we keep that we signed this off-season the harder for Beane to get an extra pick or 2 next year

- Gaines is another player like Newhouse that could help with comp pick if cut plus he has $0 dead cap...I think they keep Johnson and Wallace as depth and only go with 5+ CB's if they feel thats where the ST help will come from

- Odighizuwa for the same as the 2 above

- Logan Thomas...has really done nothing to say "keep me" and is $0 dead cap this season

 

edit - ok sry..I guess the guys I wrote above don't qualify as comp pick cuts...guess i forgot to look and see who was cut or FA b4 Bills signed them ..lol...But I still see them as the cuts

Edited May 9, 2018 by Tsaikotic

[eball]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It entirely depends on camp and pre-season.  If both McCarron and Allen show well then what role is Peterman serving?  Other than simply being another body?

 

The only way I see it making sense to carry Peterman as a 3rd Quarterback is if there really isn't much separation from anyone in camp.  

 

I could be wrong, but don't teams usually keep three on the active roster unless they have an entrenched veteran starter?

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I agree that he's not a lock.  However, who's replacing him?  

 

He was legit our best player on the field in the playoff game against Jax.  I'm not sure the 1.8 mil in cap savings is worth releasing a special teams contributor, and a player who can play both SAM and DE.

 

I could see trading lawson, as cutting him costs more than keeping him.  For those drawing a ragland parallel, he did start 10 games last year FWIW.  

 

 

To the bolded - he was but that was also by FAR his best game of the season. Jax suits him... they attack you downhill and Lorax still has some value moving forward.  When he is moving sideways or backwards he is an absolute liability and too many teams exploited that last year.  They have added another pass rusher which gives them depth at DE, they may well yet add another vet linebacker and I just think 'Zo's contribution in 2018 may well be limited to what he offers you as a leader and a locker room influence. I thought he was much more bad than good on defense and less impactful than in 2016 on special teams (he has noticeably got a little slower).  To me there must be a crossover point at which you aren't willing to pay for leadership but declining production and it wouldn't shock me if that point came this summer. 

9 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I could be wrong, but don't teams usually keep three on the active roster unless they have an entrenched veteran starter?

 

There is normally a majority for 2 now.  In 2017 at final 53 day 19 teams kept two Quarterbacks and 13 kept three (and a couple of the teams keeping 3 - Cincy and Tampa) immediately put one of their 3 on the reserve / injured list.  

24 minutes ago, Tsaikotic said:

 

- Newhouse is only a $500,000 dead cap hit and is only on a 1 year contract...he could be cut also to help with, DARE i say it - comp pick for 2019...the more FA's we keep that we signed this off-season the harder for Beane to get an extra pick or 2 next year

- Gaines is another player like Newhouse that could help with comp pick if cut plus he has $0 dead cap...I think they keep Johnson and Wallace as depth and only go with 5+ CB's if they feel thats where the ST help will come from

- Odighizuwa for the same as the 2 above

 

 

None of those are projected to be qualifying UFAs for comp pick purposes.  The Bills qualifying UFAs are:

 

Lotulelei

Murphy

McCarron

Bodine

Bush

Stanford

Edited May 9, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Domdab99]

8 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Trent Murphy, cut?? Man. I think he's going to be a stud.

 

based on what?