Questions about 2018 Roster

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I think McCarron is gonna take chances and shots down field and really open up the offense for us. Probably more turnovers, but also more fun to watch he has something to prove and that can be dangerous. I think our defense will be much improved from the flashes we had last year we solidified allot of needs especially on the dline and Edmunds will probably take a lil bit, but he is a huge upgrade from what we had. Running backs I would have to say improved and I know Ivory is not a world beater but still better than Tolbert. Our WR core the jury is still out on we didn't do allot to improve it and just need Zay to get it going and we could be in pretty good shape. Our O-line looks like it could be worse, but we are changing our blocking scheme back to similarly when we had the #1 rushing attack and if they can gel we could be alright.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:01 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure that even the Bills are as optimistic as you are. I think that long-term the QB play is better but it is likely to be worse this year. The RB position is a year older running behind a worse OL. The pass catchers are the same as they were before, bad. 

 

The defense should improve. They have a chance to be good. This team looks like it takes a step back to me. I’m fine with that as long as Allen is the guy.

 

Agreed.  Very few rookie QB "light it up" their first year.  Those that do typically have a top-notch OL and at least one Ace or two Very Good WR.

Even if Allen is great long term, the chances of "learning curve" this year are high.

 

Or put it another way, as Marv Levy once said "I hate rookies.  They make mistakes, all of them"

[prissythecat]

3 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

I think McCarron is gonna take chances and shots down field and really open up the offense for us. Probably more turnovers, but also more fun to watch he has something to prove and that can be dangerous. I think our defense will be much improved from the flashes we had last year we solidified allot of needs especially on the dline and Edmunds will probably take a lil bit, but he is a huge upgrade from what we had. Running backs I would have to say improved and I know Ivory is not a world beater but still better than Tolbert. Our WR core the jury is still out on we didn't do allot to improve it and just need Zay to get it going and we could be in pretty good shape. Our O-line looks like it could be worse, but we are changing our blocking scheme back to similarly when we had the #1 rushing attack and if they can gel we could be alright.

 

 

What are you basing this on ?   As I recall, the Bengals offense didn't exactly take off with him at the helm,

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

I think McCarron is gonna take chances and shots down field and really open up the offense for us. Probably more turnovers, but also more fun to watch he has something to prove and that can be dangerous. I think our defense will be much improved from the flashes we had last year we solidified allot of needs especially on the dline and Edmunds will probably take a lil bit, but he is a huge upgrade from what we had. Running backs I would have to say improved and I know Ivory is not a world beater but still better than Tolbert. Our WR core the jury is still out on we didn't do allot to improve it and just need Zay to get it going and we could be in pretty good shape. Our O-line looks like it could be worse, but we are changing our blocking scheme back to similarly when we had the #1 rushing attack and if they can gel we could be alright.

 

 I like your optimism and hope you're right.  My concern is, to take shots down field, McCarron needs two things: 1) enough OL to give him a chance 2) someone to catch.  In theory, Benjamin could come back from injury, Zay Jones could start looking like the guy we thought we drafted, and Kerley or some committee of young WR could be servicable.  But we just have to see how it shakes out.

 

 

[HappyDays]

Wasn't sure where else to post this:

 

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Just now, prissythecat said:

 

 

What are you basing this on ?   As I recall, the Bengals offense didn't exactly take off with him at the helm,

Well in the 3 games that AJ played he was up and down. He had some good and some bad. He wasn't afraid to throw the ball down the field though good or bad. I didn't see him hold the ball forever and run around and get tackled for a 15 yard loss allot. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

What are you basing this on ?   As I recall, the Bengals offense didn't exactly take off with him at the helm,

 

I could be mistaken, but I think he's comparing him as a pocket-passer to Tyrod.  It's probably reasonable, based on 2015 film, to think that McCarron can run a better NFL passing game than Taylor did - given an OL and WR.  Whether that translates to more offensive productivity will depend upon if he's further developed since then and can do the good stuff he showed more often and the bad stuff less.

 

 

[Bing Bong]

Dangit I already made this thread. Mods merge! /s

[Luxy312]

On 5/8/2018 at 8:40 AM, Tatonka68 said:

1.  Is the quarterback roster better or worse? Better
2. Is the running back roster better/worse? Better.
3. Is the right end/receivers better or worse? Same
4. Is the the offensive line better or worse? Worse.
5. Is the the defensive line better/worse? Better.
6. Is the linebackers better or worse? Better.
7. Is the defensive backs better or worse? Better.

 

If you say that at least 4 out of the 7 have improved why would your expectations be less than 9-7 and playoffs? No backsliding anymore.10-6 and a playoff victory

 

My take with reasoning:
1 - The quarterback roster could be better but could also be worse.  If our QB's are willing to actually throw receivers open, that should give the offense a much better chance of winning games.  Tyrod's 3.3/1.0 TD to INT ratio is really good and also means he wasn't losing us games.  I would call this a wash for now.  If our new QB's can sling it for 4,000 yards and maintain that 3+/1 ratio, they will be better for sure.
2 - The running backs are the same.  The running game lives or dies with McCoy.  Ivory is no different than any other spell back the team has had since McCoy got here.
3 - The receiving group is the same for me as well and for the same reason.  The top-3 guys (Benjamin, Jones, Clay) are the same top-3 guys we had last year.  They could look a lot better if our QB situation looks better, but it doesn't change their quality.
4 - The offensive line is the same.  Dawkins played LT last year, so losing Glenn is irrelevant.  Groy played Center with Wood out.  Mills, Ducasse, and Miller rounded out the line last year and that doesn't appear to have changed at all.  I don't know how you can get better or worse with the SAME guys lining up on Sunday.
5 - Big changes to the defensive line lead me to believe they will be better.  Let's be honest that Dareus never lived up to his potential.  They didn't need a $100m run stopper.  Lotulelei is better than anything they had last year.  Trent Murphy was a 9 sack guy just a couple years ago before his ACL injury.  Harrison Phillips could see a lot of snaps as well in his rookie season.  I can list the rest, but they're the same, but for another year of experience from Lawson.
6 - For Linebackers, there is much change as well.  I thought Edmunds was the best linebacker in the 2018 draft.  I understand that a lot of people liked Smith better, but my question about him is his size.  I don't doubt his speed or effort, but question whether he can actually cover big TE's (hint: there's one in the AFC East that I'm most concerned with).
7 - for defensive backs, I would also say that it could be better but could also be worse.  Replacing Gaines with Davis could be better if Davis shows some of his younger form and is able to suit up for most or all of the season.  If Davis plays like he did last year, I think the secondary is worse.

If the front 7 are in fact better, that will take pressure off of the defensive backs and make the defense as a whole better than it was last year.  We have to keep in mind that the defense overall was average last season.  You could only say they were above average based on turnovers.  Yards and points allowed were middle of the pack.  Getting to 9+ wins will most certainly require better or at least equivalent quarterback play.  I can't say with a straight face that we definitely improved in 4 out of 7 of these categories, unless I unleash my inner homer.

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

for people saying our WR group is worse, is it because Thompson left? I dont see how it got worse, granted its not good but that doesnt mean it got worse than last year

 

2017:

Kelvin Benjamin

Jordan Matthews

Zay Jones

Deonte Thompson

Andre Holmes

 

2018:

Kelvin Benjamin

Zay Jones

Jeremy Kerley

Andre Holmes

Ray-Ray McCloud

 

Comparing them this way, I'd say:

Benjamin = Benjamin

Matthews > Zay

Last year's Zay < Kerley

Thompson > Holmes

Holmes > McCloud

 

I think the WR corps pretty much got worse across the board with the exception of adding Kerley as a slot guy. I think this year's WR corps will be more productive in terms of raw output due to the scheme changes, but talent-wise, they've gotten worse IMO. Having said that, the only WR on the roster I really care about long-term is Benjamin and maybe Zay, and I think Benjamin is a far better fit for Allen than he was Tyrod and Daboll can't possibly use Zay in a worse way than Dennison did, so from that sense, things are looking up.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by DCOrange

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

2017:

Kelvin Benjamin

Jordan Matthews

Zay Jones

Deonte Thompson

Andre Holmes

Brandon Tate

 

2018:

Kelvin Benjamin

Zay Jones

Jeremy Kerley

Andre Holmes

Ray Ray McCloud

Rod Streater

Eh, are we counting a hobbled Benjamin that didn't play much in 2017 for us? Also, I'd imagine Streater is ahead of McCloud for now.

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Bray Wyatt]

32 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Eh, are we counting a hobbled Benjamin that didn't play much in 2017 for us? Also, I'd imagine Streater is ahead of McCloud for now.

 

 

Also Jordan Mathews didnt do much for us, Zay cant really get any worse, only real loss in production is Deonte Thompson who we got in the middle of the year. I think with a second year Zay and healthier Benjamin I dont see it as being worse

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Also Jordan Mathews didnt do much for us, Zay cant really get any worse, only real loss in production is Deonte Thompson who we got in the middle of the year. I think with a second year Zay and healthier Benjamin I dont see it as being worse

Jordan Matthews had the 2nd highest snap count of all the WRs on our roster last year, despite missing time. I guess Benjamin actually had more snaps than Tate too, though.

[Bray Wyatt]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Jordan Matthews had the 2nd highest snap count of all the WRs on our roster last year, despite missing time. I guess Benjamin actually had more snaps than Tate too, though.

 

its not like 25 catches for 282 yds and 1 td is irreplaceable though

Edited May 9, 2018 by Bray Wyatt

[DCOrange]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Eh, are we counting a hobbled Benjamin that didn't play much in 2017 for us? Also, I'd imagine Streater is ahead of McCloud for now.

 

 

I'm really just looking at it from a talent perspective, not from a "Was Benjamin healthy/will Benjamin be healthy this year?" perspective. Regarding Streater vs. McCloud, I don't think it really matters.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

 

I'm really just looking at it from a talent perspective, not from a "Was Benjamin healthy/will Benjamin be healthy this year?" perspective. Regarding Streater vs. McCloud, I don't think it really matters.

Oh, I get it. I just think the answer varies depending on when you take your snapshot of last year.

Pre-season? Matthews, Jones, Holmes, Tate

Week 8? Matthews, Jones, Thompson, Holmes, Tate

Week 15? Benjamin, Thompson, Jones, Tate

 

You catch my drift.

[FLFan]

On May 8, 2018 at 10:01 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure that even the Bills are as optimistic as you are. I think that long-term the QB play is better but it is likely to be worse this year. The RB position is a year older running behind a worse OL. The pass catchers are the same as they were before, bad. 

 

The defense should improve. They have a chance to be good. This team looks like it takes a step back to me. I’m fine with that as long as Allen is the guy.

A matter of perspective I guess.  Your conclusion is a reasonable one, but I see it differently:

 

1. Pass offense - hard to be worse than 31st, but possible I guess.  I think they are better from a passing offense perspective at QB.  Although they will miss the occasional spectacular improvisional play from Taylor, this can be made up by having an actual passing QB.  We will see.  A healthy Benjamin and year 2 for Jones makes this immediately better, assuming Benjamin can remain in the lineup and Jones does take a step.  Assumptions but not unreasonable.  I like the potential of Streeter and a few of the younger guys.  Not world beaters but adequate.  Certainly no worse than last year.  Better depending on Benjamin.  TE - serviceable if not spectacular.

2. OL  - Losing Incognito hurts.  Not clear whether any of others can step up.  Woods was good, but not dominant and could be replaced by Groy fairly easily based on past experience, and Bodine could also factor in.  Not worried there.  Dawkins had already supplanted Glenn.  RT no change.  We drafted a very promising rookie guard.  I do not believe the doom and gloom around the OL is warranted.

3. RB - Older, yes, but I believe better depth than last year.  If Shady goes down, its all over.  Same as it has been.

4. Defense - agree - should be better.

 

Probably just a glass half full guy, but I think this team is improved.  That does not guarantee results of course - they got some breaks last year - but I see them as competitive for the playoffs, and certainly not championship caliber.  6 to 10 win range depending on the breaks.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by MDFan

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Oh, I get it. I just think the answer varies depending on when you take your snapshot of last year.

Pre-season? Matthews, Jones, Holmes, Tate

Week 8? Matthews, Jones, Thompson, Holmes, Tate

Week 15? Benjamin, Thompson, Jones, Tate

 

You catch my drift.

 

Yeah, definitely. Even further into the preseason and Sammy was still around wasn't he? It's definitely a tough comparison to make.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Yeah, definitely. Even further into the preseason and Sammy was still around wasn't he? It's definitely a tough comparison to make.

Yep.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:50 AM, ddaryl said:

We need ot see the product on the field because every single one of those questions is still a question IMO

 

Except the RB question.  Tolbert is addition by subtraction....  if I ever see someone that big and slow running parallel to the LoS again, it better be a pulling guard 

Edited May 9, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood