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Zay Jones - 2018


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Should not blame Zay's crapiness on Tyrod.  Zay had crappy QB's in college and still caught 5000 passes:  Here are his 2015-2016 QB's

 

Phillip Nelson:            Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Garnder Minshew:     Washington State

Blake Kemp:                Appears to be out of football

James Summers:      Undrafted.  On Pittsburgh Steelers roster as running back.

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17 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Year two was meh. Year three was a stunner. Love to have that kind of talent on the team now.

 

Still remember my first training camp watching Moulds play.  I was against the fence and he caught a few in front of me.   He looked ten feet tall out there and was in such good shape.   Ripping the ball away from guys, one handers, short routes, go routes.   What a player.

 

The Bledsoe Peerless Moulds big year was a fun offense to watch for sure.

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9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Everyone else caught Tyrod's passes far more than Zay. It isn't even remotely close to be honest. Using PlayerProfiler.com's numbers, here's the numbers (keep in mind that they eliminating "uncatchable" passes):

 

Benjamin: 71.6% catch rate, 9.0% drop rate

Thompson: 73.1% catch rate, 5.8% drop rate

Matthews: 80.6% catch rate, 9.7% drop rate

Zay Jones: 61.4% catch rate, 15.9% drop rate

 

I also took the liberty of finding a bunch of WRs that could be grouped with Zay based on the average route depth, listed below:

Josh Doctson

Alshon Jeffery

Corey Coleman

Mike Wallace

AJ Green

Tyrell Williams

Ricardo Lewis

Torrey Smith

DeAndre Hopkins

 

That group's averages were 73.9% and 8.5% respectively. Everyone, with the exception of Doctson and Zay, fell within a range of 70.4% to 78.7% in terms of catch percentage. Zay and Doctson were at 61.4% and 62.5% respectively. In terms of drop %, Ricardo Lewis (20%) was the only player that was worse than Zay, though Coleman (15.6%) was close to Zay as well. Everyone else ranged from 4.9% to 10.9%.

 

Looking at the top 10 rookie WRs in terms of targets, we're left with a group of:

Cooper Kupp

Juju Smith-Schuster

Keelan Cole

Trent Taylor

Zay Jones

Corey Davis

Kenny Golladay

Chris Godwin

Dede Westbrook

Kendrick Bourne

 

In that group, the average (excluding Zay), had a catch percentage of 78.7% and a drop % of 5.2% (again, compared to 61.4% and 15.9% for Zay). Nobody is within 10% of Zay in terms of catch %, with the range outside of him going from 71.8% (Golladay) to 91.9% (Godwin). In terms of drop %, Dede Westbrook is the closest at 14.7%.

 

Suffice to say, Zay was horrible compared to his teammates, compared to those that ran similarly deep routes, and compared to his fellow rookie class.

 

Again, there's room for hope; I think Dennison pretty much put him in positions that played to his greatest weaknesses rather than his strengths, and he was reportedly playing through an injury as well, but he was objectively horrific as a rookie.

 

 

According to your source Zays drop rate was 9.5%  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

I watched all the games and must be blind because I cant remember seeing him drop 7 balls that I figured were catchable.  I surly wouldnt count the pass at the end of the Panthers game a drop tho.  

 

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On 5/7/2018 at 5:44 PM, BuffaloTX said:

Neither was Eric Mould's first 2 years. He was a 1st round pick

 

 

People love to give up on young players early nowadays.

They forget that we have him for about 2 mil a year for 3 more seasons (including this upcoming one)

Might as well let it play out.

This year is probably wash because of the QB change, but would still expect some return to his sure handed college ways

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10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

My big issue outside of his drop issues was the way that he was utilized. In college, he was almost exclusively used on underneath stuff: screens, drags, curls, etc. and he was by far at his best when playing out of the slot. In Buffalo, he was lined up out wide and asked to be the team's intermediate/deep threat, two areas where he has always struggled. The fact that he struggled as a result isn't really a surprise.

 

Personally, I think he was extremely overrated in the draft last year anyways, so my expectations have never been particularly high with him and I think they could have gotten a similar player far later in the draft, but Buffalo is stuck with him and should at least try to utilize him to his strengths. They didn't do that with his rookie season. In fact, Dennison used played to very few of his players' strengths last year.

You touch on some decent points.
 

like Watkins was not used correctly ( fan speaking )

 Dennison did not seem to put players in the best positions to succeed .

 Ne Coaching hopefully helps everyone on O.

 :P Including Castillo and Co.

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On 5/7/2018 at 4:53 PM, BillsfaninSB said:

New to this forum.  I’m a lonely Bills fan in Santa Barbara. 

 

Im curious about everyone’s opinion of Zay Jones for the upcoming season.  I know he has nowhere to go but up, but will he blossom this year and make a major contribution?  I think a solid performance by him could go a long way to getting this offense to the middle of the pack. 

 

New QB - whoever it is, new OC, new WR coach, God only knows how much turnover at the position.  There's a distinct lack of stability and consistency in the environment that would mitigate against him having a better sophomore year.

 

But on the other hand...doesn't really have anywhere to go but up.  Given the same opportunities as his rookie year, he'll likely do better simply due to statistical regression.

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13 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

People love to give up on young players early nowadays.

They forget that we have him for about 2 mil a year for 3 more seasons (including this upcoming one)

Might as well let it play out.

This year is probably wash because of the QB change, but would still expect some return to his sure handed college ways

he is still on the Team right ? he is on a rookie deal.. of course he played well below his College days. waay below. what happened ? Drugs. drinking ?
something happened.

 did not look to me like rookie curve. looked like he was all over the place with routes hand feet  cut breaks  and getting separation etc.
Why would your EXPECT him to return to his College norms ?

 

But i do hope he finds his way and becomes all he can be for the Bills.

 I will cheer for him. I just don't feel it sorry folks.

3 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

New QB - whoever it is, new OC, new WR coach, God only knows how much turnover at the position.  There's a distinct lack of stability and consistency in the environment that would mitigate against him having a better sophomore year.

 

But on the other hand...doesn't really have anywhere to go but up.  Given the same opportunities as his rookie year, he'll likely do better simply due to statistical regression.

analytics can isolate trends. Measure change.

 Predict?

maybe.

 

betting horses

just because a Horse finishes last 100 times does not mean it is due for improvement. But math says chances are high the horse will finish next to last or better over time.

or go to pasture

 

;  )

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14 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

 

analytics can isolate trends. Measure change.

 Predict?

maybe.

 

 

As part of my current job, I get analytics reports every day on software development and deployment.  In the past month, there have been exactly ZERO of these reports that I haven't found significant statistical flaws in, deconstructed, and proven wrong.

 

The only trend analytics isolates is the tendency for people to to be complete idiots about analytics.

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11 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

As part of my current job, I get analytics reports every day on software development and deployment.  In the past month, there have been exactly ZERO of these reports that I haven't found significant statistical flaws in, deconstructed, and proven wrong.

 

The only trend analytics isolates is the tendency for people to to be complete idiots about analytics.

so analytics Do serve a  higher purpose !

 I just knew Russ Brandon was onto something when announcing a " robust analytical strategy coming " some years ago.

unfortunate for Brandon the Answer all along was Russ Brandon.

Analytics derived and projected his demise.
 Funny thing about data is.. it takes  a certain skill set to make best use of it. and not cookie cutter formulae.

Lets hope Jones is an anomaly and bucks the trend. ! 
 

 Thanks DC Tom.

 

The wheat and the chaff.  

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6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Still remember my first training camp watching Moulds play.  I was against the fence and he caught a few in front of me.   He looked ten feet tall out there and was in such good shape.   Ripping the ball away from guys, one handers, short routes, go routes.   What a player.

 

The Bledsoe Peerless Moulds big year was a fun offense to watch for sure.

I know I think that was the year that by November each had 70-plus catches 8 touchdowns a piece and 14 yards a reception. It was outrageous! 

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13 hours ago, artmalibu said:

 

 

According to your source Zays drop rate was 9.5%  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

I watched all the games and must be blind because I cant remember seeing him drop 7 balls that I figured were catchable.  I surly wouldnt count the pass at the end of the Panthers game a drop tho.  

 

I’ll go back and check my numbers but I believe the drop rate that they calculate is based on total targets (including the uncatchable throws) whereas I only used the catchable. But I think they’ve also tweaked their numbers since I put it all together awhile back because it looks like his drop percentage is roughly 15% instead of 15.8% now.

 

Edit: Yeah, they added 3 more catchable targets to Zay's total since I gathered his numbers. His drop rate is 14.9% now.

Edited by DCOrange
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12 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

You touch on some decent points.
 

like Watkins was not used correctly ( fan speaking )

 Dennison did not seem to put players in the best positions to succeed .

 Ne Coaching hopefully helps everyone on O.

 :P Including Castillo and Co.

 

The way Buffalo used Sammy, especially after what they traded for him, will forever piss me off.

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On 5/7/2018 at 7:58 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Exactly how many did he drop that hit him in the hands?  Yes he did drop some thrown right at him, but TT did nothing to help him or any WR by often throwing passes that are hard to catch and just not throwing much to WR in general.  Lets put it this way playing with TT didn't help him any.

 

 

 

Moulds 32 receptions for 342 0 TD

Jones 27receptions for 316 2 TD

 

Not much different between the two

 

Except for what? Moulds rookie year was in like 97 or 96. It's such an awful comparison. They're not the same style of receiver either. 

 

Anyone who wants to compare Moulds first two years to Zays is clueless. They're probably the same people who compared EJs first season to Unitas first starts. The game has changed, stop it with this stupidity.

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On 5/7/2018 at 7:58 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Moulds 32 receptions for 342 0 TD

Jones 27receptions for 316 2 TD

 

Not much different between the two

You skipped a very important part of the equation.

Moulds was targeted 37 times that year.

Jones was targeted 74 times.

Edited by BuffaloHokie13
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7 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You skipped a very important part of the equation.

Moulds was targeted 37 times that year.

Jones was targeted 74 times.

I'd say 37 targets from Kelly is about equivalent to 74 from Tyrod.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You skipped a very important part of the equation.

Moulds was targeted 37 times that year.

Jones was targeted 74 times.

 

I do admit that at a certain point last season I had started to curse at Tyrod for even targeting Jones on important downs.

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12 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I’ll go back and check my numbers but I believe the drop rate that they calculate is based on total targets (including the uncatchable throws) whereas I only used the catchable. But I think they’ve also tweaked their numbers since I put it all together awhile back because it looks like his drop percentage is roughly 15% instead of 15.8% now.

 

Edit: Yeah, they added 3 more catchable targets to Zay's total since I gathered his numbers. His drop rate is 14.9% now.

 

Look in the drops stat and it is 9.5%.  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/    

 

I would love to see the video of the 7 drops.  If it would be a highlight reel catch situation I wouldnt call it a drop.  With all the hate on this guy Im surprised that no one has made a Zay  drops video other than the dropping of his pants.. 

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