Start Allen from Day 1/ QB competition

[Tyrod's friend]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Throw in a 21 year old rookie who needs to make major improvements to his game behind a suspect/inexperienced offensive line to throw to arguably the worst WR core in the league.  I wonder what David Carr thinks of that idea?

 

With due respect, this is a team game. The team is expected to win games this year not next. Tell me exactly why either Peterman or McCarron should be fed to the wolves with the that line and WR core. 

Either the OL and WR are a group you can win with or they aren't. If they aren't, replace them. Don't make the decision about the QB because the offensive line stinks. 

If AJM and NP can't out play this rookie, it will show.

And for what it's worth, there are enough examples of QBs that were hammered as a rookie and recovered to play. The guy that won the first AFL Super Bowl complete 48% of his passes his rookie year. The first guy to win 4 SBs completed 38% of his passes his first year. I got another guy that was an MVP of a Super Bowl, in his first year he completed 37% of his passes. One of the two greatest QBs of all time lost 13 in his first year, lead the league in INTs, and following what was a college career where he continually lost the "big game" got the tag of a loser because he constantly lost the last game of the year. One of those great '83 guys? He seemed to bounce pretty good after completing 47% and throwing twice as many INTs as TDs in his rookie 83 season.

By the way, you know one of those '83 guys was allowed to sit and "learn" behind the veteran. I guess ... you suppose Richard Todd played the role of "teacher"? At any rate, I think Ken O'Brien (other than Blackledge) had one of the worst of the '83 records, short of Marino, Kelly and the 47 percent Elway. 

Shall I go on? Don't give me the bullsh!t tag that you'll ruin a future career by destroying a man's confidence with bad teammates. A great career rises above. A bad career wallows and it would have wallowed anyways.

Just an old guy talking here. Seen plenty, maybe you see it differently.

[greeneblitz]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Training camp through pre-season, teams don't game plan and you face vanilla defence.  Allen needs signifcant work, though he has tremendous talent and upside.  Though McCarron is not Alex Smith, I think Allen would benefit from a Mahomes-like redshirt year.  Furthermore, I'd prefer we got our o-line and wr corps upgraded before throwing a rookie to the wolves.  You don't want to David Carr the fella.

This type of thinking is so weird to me, its not how it works at all, its totally simple, the second Josh Allen plays 1 bit better than the other 2 he will start, no one looks at  any of that other nonsense in real life.

[Green Lightning]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's going to be a Real Interesting QB room they got goin' on in Cleveland.

Real Interesting.

I would love to be a fly on that wallpaper.

 

So what is the analysis on Allen?

1) sky high physical gifts

2) spotty accuracy, said to be due to spotty footwork

3) spotty decison making under strong pressue

 

Doesn't sound to me like a guy who should start Day 1, not if you want to have a prayer of getting any footwork changes engrained into his muscle memory

 Ditto. I don't like the pic, but I don't want to see this kid crash and burn. Bring him along correctly and let's see what we got. AJ will be fine this year.

[greeneblitz]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

McCarron is better than Allen. He will have to take the job from him. 

No one can know this yet

[BuffaloBaumer]

Terrible and stupid logic. A whole other draft and free agency to surround Allen for 2019 is the only way to go. 

 

2019 is the year when the we take the AFC east 

[Tyrod's friend]

18 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

This type of thinking is so weird to me, its not how it works at all, its totally simple, the second Josh Allen plays 1 bit better than the other 2 he will start, no one looks at  any of that other nonsense in real life.

I agree, provided that "plays 1 bit better" has absolutely nothing to do with his performance, and everything to do with his processes. How is his footwork? His mental processing? I don't care one wit who throws for more TDs in this preseason.

[MiltonWaddams]

3 hours ago, RollBillsRoll said:

Based on what exactly?  I've watched several of his games from Wyoming. What i saw was a guy that NOT ONE major college program thought he was good enough to offer a scholarship coming out of juco. 

 

Also a guy who played against VERY FEW defensive players with nfl talent,  compared to those who play in a power 5 conference. How many nfl caliber corners does he see at Wyoming?

 

I like the guys measurable s, he seems like a good kid,  and may shock the world, but there is nothing on film that is awe inspiring. 

I disagree. He made some throws last year that were nothing short of incredible. His ability to roll out and toss a ball 60 yards while running towards the sideline avoiding completely un-blocked defenders is awe-inspiring to anyone who loves watching a qb toss the pigskin. That being said, you are largely speaking the truth and that's why I am advocating for him to spend immense time on the practice field, the film room and listening to the coaching staff with a focus on Daboll who has been witness to how the GOAT prepares and can assuredly pass on some of that wisdom. Game time will come and is obviously a mandatory part of his maturation process into a legitimate franchise quarterback. Which I just have to trust he will become.

Edited April 30, 2018 by MiltonWaddams

[Doc Brown]

53 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

With due respect, this is a team game. The team is expected to win games this year not next. Tell me exactly why either Peterman or McCarron should be fed to the wolves with the that line and WR core. 

Either the OL and WR are a group you can win with or they aren't. If they aren't, replace them. Don't make the decision about the QB because the offensive line stinks. 

If AJM and NP can't out play this rookie, it will show.

And for what it's worth, there are enough examples of QBs that were hammered as a rookie and recovered to play. The guy that won the first AFL Super Bowl complete 48% of his passes his rookie year. The first guy to win 4 SBs completed 38% of his passes his first year. I got another guy that was an MVP of a Super Bowl, in his first year he completed 37% of his passes. One of the two greatest QBs of all time lost 13 in his first year, lead the league in INTs, and following what was a college career where he continually lost the "big game" got the tag of a loser because he constantly lost the last game of the year. One of those great '83 guys? He seemed to bounce pretty good after completing 47% and throwing twice as many INTs as TDs in his rookie 83 season.

By the way, you know one of those '83 guys was allowed to sit and "learn" behind the veteran. I guess ... you suppose Richard Todd played the role of "teacher"? At any rate, I think Ken O'Brien (other than Blackledge) had one of the worst of the '83 records, short of Marino, Kelly and the 47 percent Elway. 

Shall I go on? Don't give me the bullsh!t tag that you'll ruin a future career by destroying a man's confidence with bad teammates. A great career rises above. A bad career wallows and it would have wallowed anyways.

Just an old guy talking here. Seen plenty, maybe you see it differently.

It's the old age debate on whether it serves a rookie QB better to sit and learn or be thrown in there and learn from his mistakes.  I usually prefer the latter and agree with nearly everything you said, but Allen needs a lot of work compared to most 1st round QB's.  If Josh Allen defies the odds and rapidly improves his footwork and decision making throughout training camp/preseason then by all means start him.  If he's not ready.  DON'T.  Why risk injury?

[Fadingpain]

10 hours ago, joevan said:

Start the best player at each position.  Make each player earn their place on the team

I agree with this.  I have zero faith in AJ's competence at the NFL level.

 

If Allen is every going to be worth a crap, he probably should be able to beat AJ in his first training camp and win the starting job.  If he can't at least compete for that but "needs time to watch and learn" start scouting more QBs.

 

 

[fansince88]

Clean up and garbage time only. Other than that if he doesnt win the job keep him on the bench.

[The Frankish Reich]

I'm a big baseball fan, and although the sports are different - baseball is the most individual/one-on-one major sport - there's some similarities in how teams look at prospects. I tend toward the stats geek side in baseball. We have really good studies from Bill James on down that tell us how to translate minor league stats into likely major league performance. For 98% of players, this works very well. An outfielder hitting .250 in AAA will probably hit .190 in the big leagues. 

Unless he happens to be Bryce Harper, who got called up with exactly those types of minor league stats. So I make an exception to the "past performance at a lower level is the best predictor of future performance at the highest level" rule when dealing with the exceptionally talented 2 percenters. That's Josh Allen. If he were a baseball prospect we'd call him a 5 tools guy who's still a little raw. But you know what? Despite that, teams are going to find away to advance a guy like that well faster than the norm. We just saw it again this year with a tremendous young baseball talent named Ronald Acuna Jr., who got called up before his 20th birthday. Josh Allens don't need a 70% completion percentage in college to get a shot; Case Keenums do. Unless something truly amazing (like a 6-1 start) happens, Allen plays at least half the year.

[Dr. Who]

11 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

This type of thinking is so weird to me, its not how it works at all, its totally simple, the second Josh Allen plays 1 bit better than the other 2 he will start, no one looks at  any of that other nonsense in real life.

Okay.  Sorry I was under the impression I was making a rational argument.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Dr. Who

[CLTbills]

It's pretty simple.

 

You start the best player, regardless of where he was drafted. If he straight-up wins the job, then start him. If he needs more time, and he's NOT the best option, start the guy who is (hopefully McCarron)

[Kelly the Dog]

8 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I'm a big baseball fan, and although the sports are different - baseball is the most individual/one-on-one major sport - there's some similarities in how teams look at prospects. I tend toward the stats geek side in baseball. We have really good studies from Bill James on down that tell us how to translate minor league stats into likely major league performance. For 98% of players, this works very well. An outfielder hitting .250 in AAA will probably hit .190 in the big leagues. 

Unless he happens to be Bryce Harper, who got called up with exactly those types of minor league stats. So I make an exception to the "past performance at a lower level is the best predictor of future performance at the highest level" rule when dealing with the exceptionally talented 2 percenters. That's Josh Allen. If he were a baseball prospect we'd call him a 5 tools guy who's still a little raw. But you know what? Despite that, teams are going to find away to advance a guy like that well faster than the norm. We just saw it again this year with a tremendous young baseball talent named Ronald Acuna Jr., who got called up before his 20th birthday. Josh Allens don't need a 70% completion percentage in college to get a shot; Case Keenums do. Unless something truly amazing (like a 6-1 start) happens, Allen plays at least half the year.

Just because a player starts off bad and has crappy stats versus sitting doesnt at all mean it was a mistake. Experience, especially for an NFL quarterback, is an invaluable asset. 

[Tyrod's friend]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's the old age debate on whether it serves a rookie QB better to sit and learn or be thrown in there and learn from his mistakes.  I usually prefer the latter and agree with nearly everything you said, but Allen needs a lot of work compared to most 1st round QB's.  If Josh Allen defies the odds and rapidly improves his footwork and decision making throughout training camp/preseason then by all means start him.  If he's not ready.  DON'T.  Why risk injury?

As regards risk injury ... well, how do you suppose Katherine Webb would respond to that question? We're only exposing certain players to injury? 

I'm not saying you can't learn from sitting, by the way. Rivers, Brees, I guess you could add Favre; none of the started at all as rookies. We can't know whether or not they benefited one iota so it's not argument to make in either direction.

My argument is about "destroying a guy's confidence". I don't buy it, not for a second. Personally, just judging on how Josh Allen reacts to adversity and his overall personality, I think he's MORE than capable of rising above difficulties - perhaps more than any guy I've ever heard. Don't coddle and at some point in this season, let it rip. 

Cheers and welcome sunshine and 60 degrees.

8 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I'm a big baseball fan, and although the sports are different - baseball is the most individual/one-on-one major sport - there's some similarities in how teams look at prospects. I tend toward the stats geek side in baseball. We have really good studies from Bill James on down that tell us how to translate minor league stats into likely major league performance. For 98% of players, this works very well. An outfielder hitting .250 in AAA will probably hit .190 in the big leagues. 

Unless he happens to be Bryce Harper, who got called up with exactly those types of minor league stats. So I make an exception to the "past performance at a lower level is the best predictor of future performance at the highest level" rule when dealing with the exceptionally talented 2 percenters. That's Josh Allen. If he were a baseball prospect we'd call him a 5 tools guy who's still a little raw. But you know what? Despite that, teams are going to find away to advance a guy like that well faster than the norm. We just saw it again this year with a tremendous young baseball talent named Ronald Acuna Jr., who got called up before his 20th birthday. Josh Allens don't need a 70% completion percentage in college to get a shot; Case Keenums do. Unless something truly amazing (like a 6-1 start) happens, Allen plays at least half the year.

Of course, Bill James would have pointed out all the way back to the 1983 Abstract ... youth triumphs over all in baseball. The capacity to outperform your age is one of the biggest indicators of HoF players in baseball and you just happened to pick out two guys in Acuna and Harper that hit that market to a tee. (Or Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Robinson, Griffey, Rodriguez and on and on). 

Acuna is going to be amazing ... I'm looking forward to seeing him battle two great pitchers in the next two days. Should be fun.




 

[theRalph]

It's Monday and the flow of calls bashing the Josh Allen pick continue. I wonder how many of these callers have actually watched the games and the scouting vids and blogs covering Allen. It feels like drought effects on fans still linger, even though the drought is now history. I define fan drought effects as a a predisposition of looking at anything the team does with negativity, because they've become conditioned to it over a generation of no playoffs.

 

Things have changed. McDermott and Beane in their time so far have done nothing but make smart moves. They have reshaped the locker room. They broke the drought with maybe the last version of the Bills one would have expected. They are certainly and systematically changing the franchise with their process. And yet their selections are being criticized as if they are still Ryan and Whaley. Nix and Gailey. And so on.

 

I watched everything I could find on Josh Allen prior to the draft and then watched it all again after. He is an accurate passer. Period. Completion percentage as a measure of accuracy is horsecrap. Allen was under pressure a lot. I see dropped passes. And under certain pressure he, at times, takes off a bit early. But he generally moves in the pocket well, with a Brady-esque hop avoiding pressure. He releases a football with up to a 74 mph fingertip speed. His release time is an insane .388 seconds. He does not throw balls in the dirt. He has a great football IQ and has run a pro style offense. He was not in a pass-happy college spread that benefitted the stats of some other draftees - like Mayfield. Allen completed 152 of 270 attempts in 2017 for a 56% completion percentage. Had he completed 23 more of these, he has a 65% average. Over 10 games, that's 2.3 drops per game. I saw more than that. 

 

The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

[whatdrought]

I wouldn't mind putting him in and letting him take his lumps, but I also don't want to see him "ruined" which can be done by feeding him to the wolves too soon. 

[prissythecat]

1 minute ago, theRalph said:

It's Monday and the flow of calls bashing the Josh Allen pick continue. I wonder how many of these callers have actually watched the games and the scouting vids and blogs covering Allen. It feels like drought effects on fans still linger, even though the drought is now history. I define fan drought effects as a a predisposition of looking at anything the team does with negativity, because they've become conditioned to it over a generation of no playoffs.

 

Things have changed. McDermott and Beane in their time so far have done nothing but make smart moves. They have reshaped the locker room. They broke the drought with maybe the last version of the Bills one would have expected. They are certainly and systematically changing the franchise with their process. And yet their selections are being criticized as if they are still Ryan and Whaley. Nix and Gailey. And so on.

 

I watched everything I could find on Josh Allen prior to the draft and then watched it all again after. He is an accurate passer. Period. Completion percentage as a measure of accuracy is horsecrap. Allen was under pressure a lot. I see dropped passes. And under certain pressure he, at times, takes off a bit early. But he generally moves in the pocket well, with a Brady-esque hop avoiding pressure. He releases a football with up to a 74 mph fingertip speed. His release time is an insane .388 seconds. He does not throw balls in the dirt. He has a great football IQ and has run a pro style offense. He was not in a pass-happy college spread that benefitted the stats of some other draftees - like Mayfield. Allen completed 152 of 270 attempts in 2017 for a 56% completion percentage. Had he completed 23 more of these, he has a 65% average. Over 10 games, that's 2.3 drops per game. I saw more than that. 

 

The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

 

 

Usually such bold predictions don't go turn out very well.     It would be great though if Allen did so well in TC and pre-season such that he was named the starter on day 1.  I just don't see it happening .

[theRalph]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

I wouldn't mind putting him in and letting him take his lumps, but I also don't want to see him "ruined" which can be done by feeding him to the wolves too soon. 

I agree...but he's played with a lot of adversity already. I think QBs from prolific, winning college programs haven't necessarily faced that kind of adversity. But they all do in the NFL.

[ddaryl]

LMAO.. I'll take a wait and see approach.

 

Nobody knows where this will end up, but I seriously doubt he starts the year

Edited April 30, 2018 by ddaryl