RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Lfod]

7 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

This is dumb, your glossing over "Yes, this is a different FO", that's all that matters, this Front office and Coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, they've made nothing but great moves that ended the drought in one season, did a complete turnover of the roster and fixed the salary cap.

Agree. The FO made some moves some fans were not happy with and I don't think anybody was predicting making the playoffs last season including myself. 

[BillsFan4]

Just now, Wyobills89 said:

Well to start out from wyoming, born and raised, wyo cowboy since 1989, bills mafia has gained another member...well im sure about 500k members. Cant wait tell training camp, allen is going to blow everyone away, i remember his first spring game, he is just such a competitor. Yes he has tons to learn, work on, but his athletic ability is scary good. Cant wait. Ive converted over 100%. Not to mention bills uni is like damn near idintical to the wyo state flag! That makes cheering for this team super easy! I hope/pray allen makes his potential, bring buffalo back to the early 90's number 17! Go wyo go Bills!

Welcome to the family! 

 

I think it's so cool how many Wyoming fans we've gained in a matter of days. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by BillsFan4

[Mickey]

1 hour ago, jmc12290 said:

By that same token, the majority of the GMs in the NFL don't have 10 years of their boards under scrutiny. 

 

Do you think if Doug Whaley was on TV next to Mayock for 10 years he'd be substantially better? I don't.

You know who else isn't that great? Just about every GM in the NFL.

I don't think it is fair to compare a GM to guys like Mayock or Kiper. They predict every pick, every round while the GM makes 6-8 picks give or take. Plus, we don't see the board the GM's develop. Another difficulty is pinning any of the draftniks down, Kiper puts out dozens of mocks leading up to the draft, at some point he has everyone going everywhere. Lastly, we are always talking about team needs and GMs likely have far different ideas as to what they need than the Illuminati of the draft. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

I feel like no one listens to Rich The Bull Genzler but he does bring on “The Godfather” If Buffalo Sports Radio Vic Carucci from time to time.  Here he drops knowledge and defends the Bills for drafting Josh Allen.  His main point is - let the pros do their job.  The Bills thought Josh Allen was the better fit.  Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football.  To which Genzler was like “thank you...thank you.”  LOL

 

12 minute segment - the part I reference starts around 11:00

 

http://stationcaster.com/stations/wgrf/media/mp3/Vic_Carucci-1525094720.mp3

if I called you an IDIOT wouldn't you want to respond?  

Keep clicking his links.  I'm sure he loves the click count 

[Lurker]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

These kinds of comments are offensive to the professionals.  Think about your own profession and how ridiculous it can be to have people who don't know crap give you advice or pronounce judgment in your area of expertise.  

 

You mean, like all the bankers who swore there wouldn't be a housing crisis, all the national security guys who were certain Saddam had WOMD, all the Wall Street types who said "what Internet bubble?" in 2000?   Not much different from the Tom Donahoe's of the world, who thought Mike Williams was going to be a star.

 

But, this is indeed getting old.    I hereby throw in the towel on Allen-bashing until training camp.   

 

"The deed is done, the doers undone..."

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Well in about 3 years we will know if it was the right pick or not. I felt that we could of competed quicker with Rosen which was why he was my first choice. With our history and inability to develop QBs in the past I am afraid of projects and that is what I think Allen is. I see Kyle Williams on the team and know it is his last year and wanted to bring him more than just an early exit out of the playoffs or worse.

[Putin]

48 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

Dan Marino is another ( HOF’er ) BTW with same exact completion % as Allen , 

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage.  Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself and put it out here, and on anyone's blog that is willing to host it.

 

I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself.  When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 

 

Sometimes Mel sends a guy somewhere because he's close to BPA and best fit.

Like he didn't mock a QB to the colts or NYG this year if I remember correctly, even if he thought the QB on the table was better, and he will mock a QB to a team who needs one even if a slightly better player (like Barkley or Chubb) is available

 

I'd like to see some reviews of his mocks though

[Sky Diver]

14 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

Welcome to the family! 

 

I think it's so cool how many Wyoming fans we've gained in a matter of days. 

 

I’m surprised they all haven’t fled after all the ridiculous negativity here.

[flmike]

I think the one thing that fans can reasonably call out GM's on is their philosophy of drafting. For example, I have always believed that good football players are better choices than guys who have eye-popping measurables but no real success at the college level to show. Especially with quarterbacks, you can see clearly that a guy is a winner, one of those guys who hates losing more than anything in the world. Maybe he is an inch short and doesn't jump as high, but he makes everyone around him better. Hoping to coach up a player at the pro level too often is a fool's errand.

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, flmike said:

I think the one thing that fans can reasonably call out GM's on is their philosophy of drafting. For example, I have always believed that good football players are better choices than guys who have eye-popping measurables but no real success at the college level to show. Especially with quarterbacks, you can see clearly that a guy is a winner, one of those guys who hates losing more than anything in the world. Maybe he is an inch short and doesn't jump as high, but he makes everyone around him better. Hoping to coach up a player at the pro level too often is a fool's errand.

This is an excellent point.  I would add that it is certainly fair to call out a GM who, for example, uses the second overall pick on a running back in 2018.

[No Cease Fires]

7 minutes ago, flmike said:

I think the one thing that fans can reasonably call out GM's on is their philosophy of drafting. For example, I have always believed that good football players are better choices than guys who have eye-popping measurables but no real success at the college level to show. Especially with quarterbacks, you can see clearly that a guy is a winner, one of those guys who hates losing more than anything in the world. Maybe he is an inch short and doesn't jump as high, but he makes everyone around him better. Hoping to coach up a player at the pro level too often is a fool's errand.

 

How exactly do you measure success, though? Allen was a winner at Wyoming. Where he struggled was his completion percentage. It seems weird to me that if he would have completed just 3 more passes per game, this pick would be seen far more favorably. 

[MJS]

Ok, but that also means you shouldn't listen to the fans and draft experts who think the Bills hit it out of the park.

 

Which means the only thing to do is wait and see ...

[CodeMonkey]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football. 

So what he is saying is that most of the ones that towed the management line and/or were not critical of the pick by definition are the ones that do know a lot about football?  Pontificate much Vic? 

 

I don't follow college football at all, so all I know about that pick is I'm glad it only cost two 2nd's to move up.  Seems like good value for a QB they coveted.   So I guess that means I know a lot about football, who knew!

[Fadingpain]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

So many fans take these so called ESPN/NFLN analysts words as bible.  It’s kinda sad.  They for their options solely off what those people say.  Also see slog od people referencing these second rate websites like walterfootball and basing their opinions off of that.   

The same can absolutely be said of the "pros" making the picks.

 

It's a crap shoot. 

[keepthefaith]

71 pages and counting analyzing and opining about a player who hasn't been to a single NFL practice yet?  Wait and see folks and hope that Nate, AJ and Josh all do very well.  The Bills may be in the best QB situation since the 90's.   

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think the bills should acknowledge that they aren't going to be great next season and name Allen the starter today.  Let him learn from his mistakes before the talent is there to compete for a championship.

[Paulus]

1 hour ago, greeneblitz said:

This is dumb, your glossing over "Yes, this is a different FO", that's all that matters, this Front office and Coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, they've made nothing but great moves that ended the drought in one season, did a complete turnover of the roster and fixed the salary cap.

While your point has merit, I believe the above mentioned drafts were done under different FOs and the unique reign of terror under each. Heck, I am sure if I wanted I could find more examples of the team being wrong about a decision and the vast majority of the fans disagreeing with the decision. 

 

The Sammy Watkins trade, can serve as an example. Although there were plenty of fans who supported the trade. many were against it from the onset. 

[ctk232]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage.  Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself and put it out here, and on anyone's blog that is willing to host it.

 

I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself.  When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 

^This. Would love to see it - but can't help but feel the same way.

 

Draft "experts" may have experience with past drafts and, for what it's worth, give their honest assessment of a player, at a single point in time, given a historical record of their play, typically stretching back only a couple of years. The idea of "draft experts" escapes me, as far as player talent and skill evaluation is concerned.

 

The success of any draft pick, No. 1 overall or the 6th/7th rounder, is entirely dependent on the work ethic and ability of the player, but almost equally, the ability of the coaching staff to equip that player with the skills and knowledge needed to succeed at the next level. You obviously get more attention as the No. 1 pick as opposed to the 6th or 7th, but these two aspects, in addition to timing and luck, typically dictate the career of most drafted NFL players, in my opinion. Scouts have one of the most difficult roles in a Front Office as they can only speculate a player's potential given current record of performance - which is often very skewed, due to the college game system/schemes, vast discrepancy of competition and opponent strength, player injuries, etc. If any of these "experts" were truly that, why wouldn't NFL FO's listen and/or hire them as consultants? At some point you have to question how much of this is an educated, calculated risk assessment, and how much is pure speculation.

 

How do you think Brady might have developed on any other team with any other coach/coaching staff? On the other hand, would EJ have developed any differently on any other team with any other coach/coaching staff? Or was his career the result of forces completely in his control?

Edited April 30, 2018 by ctk232

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Well, so be it.    Their "faith" is that Allen can correct his footwork and other mechanics and somehow become something more than a big arm.   McBeane may have spent a lot of time analyzing it, but it's still an "educated guess."    And IMO, the odds say it is a long shot, given how few QBs have been able to make that leap...   

 

 

Mock drafts are entertainment, garnished with a large dose of team-supplied misinformation.   

 

Media white noise and tales told round the campfire...

 

Its amazing how mock drafts are great if they fit our agenda and mean nothing when they dont

 

What you CAN look at is where does the player consistantly go in mock drafts if you averaged them out.....

 

(hint...it was pretty high)