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The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen


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3 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Why wouldn’t Allen be able to read a defense? He’s probably in the 90th to 95th percentile for intelligence.

 

Slow eyes?

 

 

 

Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.....

 

I honestly don’t know that IQ and ability to find a 2nd or third outlet in 2.4 seconds are exactly the same thing. 

 

 

But it can’t hurt. 

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2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Slow eyes?

 

 

 

Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.....

 

I honestly don’t know that IQ and ability to find a 2nd or third outlet in 2.4 seconds are exactly the same thing. 

 

 

But it can’t hurt. 

 

I interpret reading a defense as identifying coverage schemes. I’m not sure why this would be an issue for Allen.

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1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

I interpret reading a defense as identifying coverage schemes. I’m not sure why this would be an issue for Allen.

 

I’m not saying it’s specific to Allen. It just seems that there are only about a dozen NFL age males capable of doing it well in the USA.  It may sound easy in theory, but how many pull it off really well, especially as rookies? The defense gets well paid too, and they try very hard to make it very difficult. 

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9 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

I’m sure that teams are good at disguising coverages, but what evidence is there that Allen is deficient in reading defenses or it’s going to be a problem for him?

 

What evidence is there he CAN do it. I’m not for or against here. I just know there are 10-15 really good QB’s in the league (if that), and I see no reason to put him in the club until he proves it. Heck, we HAD a bottom half QB and rolled the dice for top tier. I hope it’s the right pick, but I won’t just assume it’s the answer. It’s not that time. YET. 

 

 

Besides, it’s about a lot more than just reading defenses. You need the whole package. Most people are more worried about his accuracy issues. He’s our guy now so I’m praying for the best. 

 

 

.

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14 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

What evidence is there he CAN do it. I’m not for or against here. I just know there are 10-15 really good QB’s in the league (if that), and I see no reason to put him in the club until he proves it. Heck, we HAD a bottom half QB and rolled the dice for top tier. I hope it’s the right pick, but I won’t just assume it’s the answer. It’s not that time. YET. 

 

 

Besides, it’s about a lot more than just reading defenses. You need the whole package. Most people are more worried about his accuracy issues. He’s our guy now so I’m praying for the best. 

 

 

.

 

I think he watches and learns for a year.

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1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

I don’t know how long it will take, but I’m ALL FOR the slow and patient approach. 

 

I think that’s how McDermott is going to handle it. Not sure a lot of fans are ready for that though.

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24 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

I think that’s how McDermott is going to handle it. Not sure a lot of fans are ready for that though.

Personally and selfishly  I want to see what he can do asap, but I trust the current coaches. 

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1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

 

I think he watches and learns for a year.

 

Unless one of the other guys surprises and starts tearing it up I think he probably gets to start this year. How many games idk. I'd be fine with it as long as they have a plan for him to play within himself and don't ask him to do too much. That's how the Pats managed Brady and the Steelers Big Ben when they were rooks. If our new OC can design an offence that plays to his strengths, ala Watson in Houston last year, so much the better. 

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1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

 

I think that’s how McDermott is going to handle it. Not sure a lot of fans are ready for that though.

I don't think quarterbacks really need it. If he's the better camp quarterback then start him. If not, NBD but he needs to be improvong. But if he's the kind of quarterback that gets worse after bad games then he's not a good quarterback mentally to begin with. Everybody has bad games, the ones that can't move past it suck. 

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On 4/27/2018 at 9:12 AM, Jeetz1231 said:

I'm glad someone took time to write a well thought out post, not just complaining because we didn't draft the guy that they wanted. At the end of the day you have to take a risk to get the guy that you believe will turn into a franchise QB, they took Allen over Rosen for a reason, you make some good points. Kudos to you sir.

I never have been one to rationalize something after the fact. If the OP needs to do that to bolster himself that's fine. I remain disappointed and hope for the best. Actually I hope my gut on Allen is epically wrong and I will gladly eat a plate of crow. Still, I don't need to create a scenario or disparage the guy we didn't pick to make me feel better. Let's just hope Allen is the elusive franchise QB we all want.

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12 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Unless one of the other guys surprises and starts tearing it up I think he probably gets to start this year. How many games idk. I'd be fine with it as long as they have a plan for him to play within himself and don't ask him to do too much. That's how the Pats managed Brady and the Steelers Big Ben when they were rooks. If our new OC can design an offence that plays to his strengths, ala Watson in Houston last year, so much the better. 

The only difference is NE and Pitt had better options in front of Brady and Big Ben (Tommy Maddox went to the playoffs and was comeback player of the year).  Injuries forced their hands.

 

i think Allen should sit as long as possible.  But man, we should notice a difference in his ability vs. 2 former 5th rounders with very average abilities.

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On 7/2/2018 at 12:52 PM, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Welp, you started off okay, started quipping with disagreements, and lowered yourself to this point. "those shoulders are kinda girly".. good analysis. Really good insight to why a slight frame makes Allen the way to go lol. Take a look around the NFL, always been aging quarterbacks that play successfully, that are smart to release before "getting thrown around like a rag doll." Brady could be the most injury prone player the last few years if he wasn't the master of the borderline intentional grounding, referee complaining, and folding like lawn chair before he gets any serious contact.

 

Rosen has a high football IQ. This isn't Peterman waiting until the last second for Bosa to nail him before throwing while being hit. I'm not going to take stock in college concussions. Every quarterback gets concussions, minor or major, throughout a season. Is it Rosen's fault he plays for a conservative Athletic Director in college and accurately reports his concussions rather than jeopardizing his future/NFL career for a UCLA team not going anywhere? I'm perfectly fine with players going out for concussions. It doesn't indicate the seriousness of a concussion, some players are simply aware they got their bell rung, have safety in their starting positions, and don't want to get repeated concussions in a short period of time (the real deal breaker). Then there's players that play all game, getting minor concussions, and don't go out with it until they get knocked cold. Maybe it's me, but I'm fine with a player leaving voluntarily for concussion protocol.

 

Being out for a concussion has nothing to do with the severity of the concussion.

 I can't believe he said that. And see my post 2 posts above. Just because we didn't get Rosen doesn't mean we need to take dumb personal shots at him that aren't true. Good god, just root for Josh Allen.

 

Relax Sally,

 

I was just goofing around.  

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Rosen has a more finely tuned arm today than Allen but he lacks very much in mobility 

 

you need to be able to slide around the pocket and buy time in The NFL, and that was  Rosen’s biggest flaw

 

he can’t create and take hits... I used to think he could maybe be like Rodgers but Rodgers is an extraordinary athlete and can move in the NFL

 

Rosen can’t do that so he is more likely a Matt Ryan (if he can progress a lot ) or a Trent Dilfer manager type

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On 7/3/2018 at 7:00 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Quick point for you and what seems like half the board at various times ... an opinion with which you disagree is NOT a "fallacy."

 

A fallacy is not solely based off a proven fact it can also be from a mistaken belief based off an unsound argument.    Semantics dude, semantics. 

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On 7/2/2018 at 8:45 PM, oldmanfan said:

I would have liked Rosen but apparently his attitude may have been an issue with our guys, and other teams.  As for Allen, he may get compared to Rosen but I see no reason to compare him to guys in other draft classes.  I would have liked Watson last year, but Mahomes?  One read guy from a weak conference with terrible footwork and a big arm?  And he's supposed to be some kind of god's gift to the QB position?

 

Allen is like any other first round QB not named Manning or Luck or Elway.  He has a lot of positives, and some negatives.  For all these guys it boils down to whether they can mentally process the NFL game.  Can they slow the game down so they make the right plays?  We'll see, not just for Allen but all these guys.

 

....slam dunk right there 'Oldy.....Steve Young (yup THAT guy but what would HE know?) eloquently stated, "more collegians fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the speed and complexity of the game"....it's not a criticism but a valid observation....think about a QB having FIVE seconds or less to process the entire field before the ball is snapped.....IMO that takes an extremely rare breed......and how the hell do you "train the brain to process faster"?.....better have some of "IT" coming into the NFL otherwise......FIVE freakin' seconds?...good Lord.....

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18 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

I think he watches and learns for a year.

 

I'm all for that.  But usually where that's the case, you want to have a vet QB known to be able to run an offense.

 

When they traded Taylor, let the FA breeze blow by and came out with McCarron I was thinking that was unlikely.

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2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Rosen has a more finely tuned arm today than Allen but he lacks very much in mobility 

you need to be able to slide around the pocket and buy time in The NFL, and that was  Rosen’s biggest flaw

he can’t create and take hits... I used to think he could maybe be like Rodgers but Rodgers is an extraordinary athlete and can move in the NFL

Rosen can’t do that so he is more likely a Matt Ryan (if he can progress a lot ) or a Trent Dilfer manager type

 

Just to point out if a QB can read and react quickly, and the offense is properly schemed to create likely initial mismatches, that drastically decreases the need for the QB to buy time sliding around.

 

Brady, it seems to me, has the mobility of a busted mower in high grass, and makes his living by knowing at the snap where the mismatch is likely to be and getting the ball out there before the D can get him.  Wasn't Peyton Manning another relatively immobile QB who relied upon his extraordinary ability to read the D and find the open guy fast?

 

Rodgers, it seems to me, needs to be mobile because the offense McCarthy runs relies on buying time for coverage breakdowns - of which there have been fewer of recent years under Edgar Bennett as nominal OC.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the return of Joe Philbin as OC, but anyway, the Pack under McCarthy with Rodgers at QB has relied upon his ability to extend the play and buy time, then spot the coverage breakdown and exploit it. 


I guess my point is that Rodgers is extraordinary with his ability to evade pressure in the pocket - I don't think a young QB's inability to move like Rodgers makes that young QB automatically a second-tier manager type.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just to point out if a QB can read and react quickly, and the offense is properly schemed to create likely initial mismatches, that drastically decreases the need for the QB to buy time sliding around.

 

Brady, it seems to me, has the mobility of a busted mower in high grass, and makes his living by knowing at the snap where the mismatch is likely to be and getting the ball out there before the D can get him.  Wasn't Peyton Manning another relatively immobile QB who relied upon his extraordinary ability to read the D and find the open guy fast?

 

Rodgers, it seems to me, needs to be mobile because the offense McCarthy runs relies on buying time for coverage breakdowns - of which there have been fewer of recent years under Edgar Bennett as nominal OC.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the return of Joe Philbin as OC, but anyway, the Pack under McCarthy with Rodgers at QB has relied upon his ability to extend the play and buy time, then spot the coverage breakdown and exploit it. 


I guess my point is that Rodgers is extraordinary with his ability to evade pressure in the pocket - I don't think a young QB's inability to move like Rodgers makes that young QB automatically a second-tier manager type.

 

 

 

Brady moves exceptionally well in the pocket. Probably as good or better than any QB since Namath at manipulating the pocket 

 

and that was my point about being able to move inside or outside the pocket... you need to be able to do atleast 1 well to succeed 

 

Brady is a savant In the pocket 

 

Rosen isn’t great at mucking through deep water in the pocket yet, and he isn’t good outside the pocket , that was my point

 

I did say he can be a Matt Ryan type

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