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The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen


Magox

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2 hours ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

Going over the tape after the pick last night.....I gotta say Josh Allen reminds me of young Big Ben in the way he can move around and shrug off tackles/get away from tackles

 

The accuracy scares the bejeezes out of me.....and I hope it can be corrected....but man is this kid a specimen

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2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Sure I can, since I personally value the assets that Rosen brings to the table (reading defenses, seeing the open receiver, good enough movement skills, better than average vision/anticipation/ball placement) than the characteristics you list.   

 

BTW, Rosen has a 70% completion rate on deep balls going against pro-style defenses and PAC-12 DBs, which is about 30 points more than Allen had going against the future insurance salesmen playing for Mountain West teams...    

 

That's not how that works.  Words matter and the words you used were "by all other measures" and then you go on to equivocate and say "Sure I can, since I personally value the assets that Rosen brings to the table".   You could have easily rephrased it and made your point without making a clearly false statement.  Just admit it, it's not a big deal.  The point you are making is a reasonable one to make you simply worded it very poorly and inaccurate.

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2 hours ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

  Good post!

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2 hours ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

 

 

Thanks for making me feel better.

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3 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

You did blame Allen's low completion percentage to a poor offensive line and bad receivers who get no separation. The Bills have a poor offensive line and bad receivers who get no separation. 

 

I partially did.  I shutter to think what Rosen would do with the porous line we have.  He'd get murdered.  One of the most underappreciated aspects of Tyrod was that he was able to get away from pressure effectively, and I believe that Allen would be able to have more success with that than Rosen.

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19 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

This is just patently untrue. 

 

You up can not argue in good faith that there are no measures in which Josh Allen is superior to Josh Rosen. You are simply lying with an agenda. Bad faith posting should be a bannable offense, imo. 

  I look at bad faith posting as more a matter of being intellectually dishonest which definitely should allow for a reputation hit.

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1 hour ago, DasNootz said:

The two aren’t mutually exclusive.  

 

Its td also widely accepted that QBs under 6’2” aren’t successful, QBs with multiple concussions are at higher risk... pick the stat that supports your opinion and roll with it.

 

Bottom line, the Bills identified their QB and made the necessary move to secure him.  That’s what we all collectively wanted.

THIS

 

Short QBs who aren’t super athletic and fast don’t translate to the NFL (Mayfield)

 

Turnover prone QBs with a limited sample size are a major risk (Darnold)

 

Injury prone/Concussion prone QBs with an attitude, who’s own HC didn’t think was a top pick are worrisome (Rosen)

 

Low completion percentages in college are a red flag (Allen)

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1 minute ago, akm0404 said:

Subtract the word up that got erroneously added and you should be able to figure it out. 

 

So, "You can not argue in good faith that there are no measures in which Josh Allen is superior to Josh Rosen."  Right?

 

Sure there are measures where I think Rosen is superior to Allen.   I provided plenty.    And I said the measures where Allen is superior to Rosen don't matter as much to me given the best QBs tend to be surgeons, not blacksmiths.

 

So what's your point?

 

 

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2 hours ago, offyourocker said:

 

Also widely accepted that QBs with accuracy issues do not improve on those by the time they get to the NFL

And seldom do their slow eyes pick up game speed processing abilities. Losman and EJ had high ceilings as well. Here's an idea, let's pick a quarterback who actually has a record of accuracy, reading defenses and making the right decisions instead of physical specimens who are long range projects.

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6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

That's not how that works.  Words matter and the words you used were "by all other measures" and then you go on to equivocate and say "Sure I can, since I personally value the assets that Rosen brings to the table".   You could have easily rephrased it and made your point without making a clearly false statement.  Just admit it, it's not a big deal.  The point you are making is a reasonable one to make you simply worded it very poorly and inaccurate.

 

OK, chief.    "by all most other measures"    Does that make you feel more secure now?    :lol: 

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7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

So, "You can not argue in good faith that there are no measures in which Josh Allen is superior to Josh Rosen."  Right?

 

Sure there are measures where I think Rosen is superior to Allen.   I provided plenty.    And I said the measures where Allen is superior to Rosen don't matter as much to me given the best QBs tend to be surgeons, not blacksmiths.

 

So what's your point?

 

 

Oh ok I guess we are dealing with a poster with special needs vis a vis reading comprehension. I’ll try one more time but I’m not optimistic. 

 

1. You said that there were NO MEASURES where Josh Allen was superior to Josh Rosen. 

 

2. Yes, there are. 

 

Better?

 

Edit: looks like we got this figured out. Resume your regularly scheduled echo chambering. 

Edited by akm0404
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1 minute ago, akm0404 said:

Oh ok I guess we are dealing with a poster with special needs vis a vis reading comprehension. I’ll try one more time but I’m not optimistic. 

 

1. You said that there were NO MEASURES where Josh Allen was superior to Josh Rosen. 

 

2. Yes, there are. 

 

Better?

 

My God, maybe it depends on your definition of what the meaning of the word 'is' is...

 

http://10.95.4.165:15871/cgi-bin/blockpage.cgi?ws-session=738099866

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3 hours ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

While I can agree with most of your on the field analysis ..your leadership point is not really accurate ..there's different kinds of leaders ..Aaron Rodgers is very smug/ arrogant former teammates have called him out yet his winning speaks for itself.  Jameis Winston is ur prototypical rah rah leader of men..that hasn't translated to wins 

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