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Is there a precedent for developing a low-percentage QB?


finn

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Regarding this topic, and coming from my perspective as a scientist who reviews a lot of papers and has to have a decent knowledge of statistics, study design etc., here are my thoughts, as if I were reviewing a scientific manuscript:

 

1. You have not defined your measurable - accuracy - well enough.  Is accuracy defined as completion percentage?  if so, then there are other variables that enter into your choice, such as number of drops by receivers, etc.  If you are putting a specific target out there somewhere, and measuring the number of times a QB hits that specific target, then you are measuring accuracy.

 

2.  Are you wanting to measure accuracy or precision?   You can be accurate but not precise, and vice versa. 

 

3.  Do you have an adequate control group?  Not in this case, because the control group seems to be other QBs that have higher completion percentages.  But this brings in a host of variables.  What is the quality of receivers each team has?  What types of throws was each QB making - short passes or screens would be expected to have a higher completion percentage?  And so on.

 

So if the analysis people are doing here was submitted to me for review, I would reject the manuscript for publication.  And I would encourage the authors to define their terms more clearly, and then design their study appropriately so you actually can support your contention.  Namely, put QBs out on a field with randomly spread targets, and ask them to make repeat throws at said target.

 

Allen will sink or swim.  Just like all the other QBs drafted. 

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The accuracy numbers on Allen are a huge concern but some of Allen's completion percentage is explained by the nature of his offense (more downfield throws less high completion percentage throws like screens and shovel passes) and the nature of Allen's receivers not being that good. I think the reason he was scouted well despite the completion percentage was these other factors. I still would have preferred Rosen but I don't hate Allen all things considered. 

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29 minutes ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

One of his most compared-to players is Cam Newton. Look at Cam's pre-draft stuff, it's quite similar. You'll see things like "big body, huge arm, crazy athletic for his size". You'll also see "needs to work on accuracy, reading defenses, making smart decisions with the ball". I for one am entirely shocked that two guys who coached/learned in Carolina and helped take Cam to a Super Bowl decided to draft a guy frequently compared to him. 

 

As for accuracy.. Jordan Palmer said a lot of stuff about it, so I'll just paraphrase rather than parrot him. He said the raw number isn't everything (another shock, I know). The team around him got significantly worse in 2017, as his mostly senior team from 16 all graduated and moved on. Yet, his completion percentage remained the same. It actually shows an improvement when factoring in that he lost a huge amount of his offense. Palmer and Allen both cited footwork issues that resulted in accuracy. That's coachable, to what extent remains to be seen. And the "unable to read a defense" thing, well I'm not sold on that narrative. At the very least, the potential is there, as he has proven to be very smart with the X's and O's. Let's wait and see if he can apply his intelligence to the field. 

I'm most heartened by this post. Thanks very much. Even if he doesn't pan out, having the model of Cam Newton in mind (instead of C.J. Manuel)  at least gives me hope, which is all we Bills fan really need. 

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22 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

And Dan Marino's

 

 

And Sammy Baugh's 

 

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Career       165 83 11-10-0 1693 2995 56.5 21886 187 6.2 203 6.8 86 7.3 5.5 12.9 132.6 72.2           1 2
1937+ 23 WAS TB   11 5   81 171 47.4 1127 8 4.7 14 8.2 59 6.6 3.8 13.9 102.5 50.5                
1938* 24 WAS TB   9 3   63 128 49.2 853 5 3.9 11 8.6 60 6.7 3.6 13.5 94.8 48.1           0 0  
1939* 25 WAS tb   9 1   53 96 55.2 518 6 6.3 9 9.4 44 5.4 2.4 9.8 57.6 52.3           0 0  
1940*+ 26 WAS TB   11 11   111 177 62.7 1367 12 6.8 10 5.6 81 7.7 6.5 12.3 124.3 85.6                
1941* 27 WAS TB   11 1   106 193 54.9 1236 10 5.2 19 9.8 55 6.4 3.0 11.7 112.4 52.2           0 0  
1942*+ 28 WAS TB   11 8   132 225 58.7 1524 16 7.1 11 4.9 53 6.8 6.0 11.5 138.5 82.5                
1943+ 29 WAS TB   10 7   133 239 55.6 1754 23 9.6 19 7.9 72 7.3 5.7 13.2 175.4 78.0                
1944 30 WAS qb   8 4   82 146 56.2 849 4 2.7 8 5.5 71 5.8 3.9 10.4 106.1 59.4           0 0  
1945 31 WAS QB   8 8   128 182 70.3 1669 11 6.0 4 2.2 70 9.2 9.4 13.0 208.6 109.9                
1946 32 WAS QB   11 2   87 161 54.0 1163 8 5.0 17 10.6 51 7.2 3.5 13.4 105.7 54.2           0 0  
1947 33 WAS QB   12 1   210 354 59.3 2938 25 7.1 15 4.2 74 8.3 7.8 14.0 244.8 92.0           0 0  
1948 34 WAS QB   12 3   185 315 58.7 2599 22 7.0 23 7.3 86 8.3 6.4 14.0 216.6 78.3           0 0  
1949 35 WAS QB   12 8   145 255 56.9 1903 18 7.1 14 5.5 76 7.5 6.4 13.1 158.6 81.2           0 0  
1950 36 WAS QB 33 11 7 3-4-0 90 166 54.2 1130 10 6.0 11 6.6 56 6.8 5.0 12.6 102.7 68.1                
1951* 37 WAS QB 33 12 9 5-4-0 67 154 43.5 1104 7 4.5 17 11.0 53 7.2 3.1 16.5 92.0 43.8           1 2  
1952 38 WAS qb 33 7 5 3-2-0 20 33 60.6 152 2 6.1 1 3.0 20 4.6 4.5 7.6 21.7 79.4                
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1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

Matt Ryan says otherwise.

 

Matt Ryan had 2 years >60% before sliding a bit under his Sr year

1 hour ago, finn said:

Troy Aikman pointed out that very few quarterbacks who were inaccurate in college have made it in the NFL. That got me thinking: are there ANY quarterbacks with Allen's low percentage (in a weak conference, too) who have made it? I'm genuinely curious. 

 

If you go back far enough (Favre, Kelly etc) to the days when good NFL QB had completion stats under 60%, there are quite a few.  But it was a different game then.

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33 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. 

 

These takes are legitimate!

 

He only threw the ball 25ish times a game, a lot of vertical stuff, intermediate stuff.

 

They didn't run a lot of the stuff that leads to high completion rates, he wasn't throwing screens etc

 

Not what he was asked to do in that offense.


Let's see how he does in the Bills system.

 

He's the opposite of Tyrod, he'll chuck it into those tighter windows and give his guys a change to make plays

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1 hour ago, Irv said:

Everyone needs to chill out.  Jim Kelly's college stats!

 

Year Team Games Passing
G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate
1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami   7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4
Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4

 

The difference is you see improvement in those stats...where is the improvement in Allen's stats? Literally the same numbers from one year to the next

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8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Matt Ryan had 2 years >60% before sliding a bit under his Sr year

 

If you go back far enough (Favre, Kelly etc) to the days when good NFL QB had completion stats under 60%, there are quite a few.  But it was a different game then.

 

I know hap

I was just pointing out that jrober dropped the 60% "magic number" down to 58% to fit his narrative

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5 minutes ago, Xerx said:

 

These takes are legitimate!

 

He only threw the ball 25ish times a game, a lot of vertical stuff, intermediate stuff.

 

They didn't run a lot of the stuff that leads to high completion rates, he wasn't throwing screens etc

 

Not what he was asked to do in that offense.


Let's see how he does in the Bills system.

 

He's the opposite of Tyrod, he'll chuck it into those tighter windows and give his guys a change to make plays

Yeah...polar opposite...one of the scouting reports said there were times in games he would make a throw in a window only 5 QBs in the entire world at any level would even attempt

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There was a stretch where Jay Cutler completed 60% of his passes 7 out of 9 seasons, he's currently at 62% for a career and he finished with a 57% completion rate at Vanderbilt.

 

He'd be heralded as a great QB who never won a championship if he wasn't perceived to be an emotionless person and leader at QB.

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34 minutes ago, Lofton80 said:

Phil Simms at Morehead St. finished with 409 completions in 835 attempts for a 48.9% completion percentage. Pretty sure he still holds completion percentage record for a Super Bowl game.

But...but...we can only look at the last 20 years to fit the narrative....

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No recent examples. But the tape doesn’t show a wildly inaccurate QB. He throws high on shorter throws, which he has to fix. But his accuracy isn’t as alarming as the #’s suggest. Watch the 4:00 minute mark of this (this is one of the three games against teams from a major conference- Iowa from the Big 10- in which he “struggled” statistically).

 

 

I didn’t post that to point out his accuracy but the play of his receiving options last year.

 

The whole tape of that game demonstrates he had a better performance than just reading the box score the next day would tell you.

Edited by Midwest1981
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1 hour ago, finn said:

Troy Aikman pointed out that very few quarterbacks who were inaccurate in college have made it in the NFL. That got me thinking: are there ANY quarterbacks with Allen's low percentage (in a weak conference, too) who have made it? I'm genuinely curious. 

Yes Jim Kelly, Brett Farve and Stafford all lower percentage throwers then Allen. . 

 

I rest my case 

 

 

Edited by Thurmanator 12074
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You guys are all a bunch of negative nancies. Saying that we’ve signed ourselves to a bust of a QB is shortsighted. 

 

Sure, I have my concerns, but what the hell do I know (and for that matter, what the hell makes all of you experts)? Here are the simple facts:

 

1) we got one of the consensus top 4 QBs, and all we gave up to move up were 2 2nds, when half this board wanted to sell the farm

2) we got the QB with the highest ceiling of ALL the qbs in the draft - his potential was so high that he was in the conversation to be number 1 overall

3) we got a game changing linebacker prospect to lead our defense

 

Seriously, chill the f*ck out people. Let’s ENJOY the fact that we got a great prospect, and look forward to watching him on the field and prove the experts wrong. And if he crashes and burns, THEN you have free reign to complain again. He very well may prove us all wrong.

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I was about as much of an Allen detractor as there was and I was surprised when watching some tape that you couldn’t completely marry the stats to the actual play. I’m not even talking about the ‘wow’ throws.

 

I’m still not totally bullish- and his accuracy still needs to memory (hopefully his mechanical work becomes a part of his muscle memory)- but he has a chance.

 

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1 hour ago, sullim4 said:

The one thing I will say in watching his tape last night is that he has a tendency to throw the ball away a lot rather than take sacks.

 

To avoid a sack, did he throw the ball away to defenders, like Peterman, or to a totally uncatchable place?

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Hey I'm as freaked out about the Allen pick as much as anyone but I'm not bent on being right about him more than I hope he turns out great for us.  As to the accuracy thing, the film tells a better story.  The raw numbers do NOT.  When you watch the tape is the ball in the right spot?  I've seen scouts talking about this about Allen, and attribute a lot of his raw accuracy numbers to being just plain skewed due to poor rout running, offensive scheme, for instance, Mayfield threw a lot of out-routes, and quick slants, or in general, easy throws.  Allen did not run this type of offense in College; his OC decided to run with the long to intermediate type of game, where, you tend to throw it up, so to speak.  If we take a look at the fantastic-4 QB's from this draft and compare those numbers, everything comes much more into focus.

 

I am in trusting the process ATM, because, well, what choice do I have, but I do have some skepticism about the pick.

 

Tim-

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