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Best, Realistic Scenario For Getting Our Guy


Domdab99

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1. Browns pick Darnold.

 

If the Browns pick Allen or Rosen or another QB, the Giants will most likely pick Darnold, as they reportedly covet him. This is not good for the Bills, as the Jets will take Mayfield or Rosen next, and we're looking at possibly having to move up to 5 or 6 to get the 4th QB. Which might be - god forbid - Allen. 

 

However, if the Browns do pick Darnold, then it's quite likely we see it play out like this:

 

2. Giants either pick Barkley, Chubb, or trade out (hopefully to the Bills)

3. Jets pick Mayfield or Rosen.

4. Browns pick Barkley or Chubb

5. Broncos trade back with the Bills, and we pick Rosen or Mayfield. 

 

The Broncos are the wildcard. They might just stay put and pick Mayfield or Rosen here. Not good for us, obviously. 

 

I kind of want the Browns to just pick Allen first so we can't pick him, but that will make a run on QBs, too...

 

Anyway, I thought it was important to have a thread about the draft. B-)

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For a while I couldn't tell if it was better for the Browns to select Darnold or Allen based on the reports that NYG will take Darnold at 2.  

 

But i'm convinced it's best if the Browns take Allen.  There's no guarantee the Giants will take Darnold.  And it guarantees the Bills can't take Allen.  And if by some chance the Browns take Allen and the Giants don't take Darnold, it guarantees either Mayfield or Rosen will be there at 6 where the colts are rumored to be looking to trade back where it won't cost that much to move up.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

1. Browns pick Darnold.

 

If the Browns pick Allen or Rosen or another QB, the Giants will most likely pick Darnold, as they reportedly covet him. This is not good for the Bills, as the Jets will take Mayfield or Rosen next, and we're looking at possibly having to move up to 5 or 6 to get the 4th QB. Which might be - god forbid - Allen. 

 

However, if the Browns do pick Darnold, then it's quite likely we see it play out like this:

 

2. Giants either pick Barkley, Chubb, or trade out (hopefully to the Bills)

3. Jets pick Mayfield or Rosen.

4. Browns pick Barkley or Chubb

5. Broncos trade back with the Bills, and we pick Rosen or Mayfield. 

 

The Broncos are the wildcard. They might just stay put and pick Mayfield or Rosen here. Not good for us, obviously. 

 

I kind of want the Browns to just pick Allen first so we can't pick him, but that will make a run on QBs, too...

 

Anyway, I thought it was important to have a thread about the draft. B-)

If you want Rosen you go to 2.  There is no way Gettlman drafts a rb in a deep rb draft over 3 1s.  Chubb is not Clowney, Garrett in terms of special.  They need line help and they draft McClichky OT from Nd at 12.  22 they add another starter.

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17 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Why are the Broncos not taking Rosen or Mayfield.  Keenum was only given a 2 year deal. 

 

Yeah I'm actually a bit worried NYG and DEN both take Qb's. Then if we don't get to 4 it's bad news bears.

 

You never know, but it's a trade-happy and QB-happy league right now and this draft has a handful of them. It's going to be a frenzy whether those teams pick the QB's themselves, or trade the pick to another team that will. 

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Denver would not put the pick up for sale if they were thinking qb......  There are players graded higher than qbs denver could take at 5 but if they were thinking qb no way would they sell it. Imo 

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17 minutes ago, Shotgunner said:

 

Yeah I'm actually a bit worried NYG and DEN both take Qb's. Then if we don't get to 4 it's bad news bears.

 

You never know, but it's a trade-happy and QB-happy league right now and this draft has a handful of them. It's going to be a frenzy whether those teams pick the QB's themselves, or trade the pick to another team that will. 

I'm finding it really hard to gauge where other teams are at. I try to think back to the vibe during past drafts where we still sucked at QB, but didn't draft one with our first. We didn't draft a QB with our first when Edwards was our QB. Now, we are utterly desperate for a QB, and everyone knows it. I don't think we have much of a poker face at this moment.

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49 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Why are the Broncos not taking Rosen or Mayfield.  Keenum was only given a 2 year deal. 

There is smokescreens everywhere..No one really knows if the Broncos are going to get a QB or not.  The only one in the top-6 that does not require a QB are the Colts.

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5 hours ago, Virgil said:

Why are the Broncos not taking Rosen or Mayfield.  Keenum was only given a 2 year deal. 

It was reported that they might take Mayfield or Darnold. They didn't like Rosen or Allen. Benjamin Albright reported that Rosen is off their board completely. They also reportedly like Barkley, Chubb, Nelson but they also liked the idea of trading back with the Bills and taking Ward and Will Hernandez.

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I was expecting by now the bills would have traded into pick 7 or so making the move to 2, 4 or 5 easier.  The fact they haven't is pretty concerning and I'm starting to get that sinking feeling they are going to be left on the sidelines when all is said and done. I really want pick 2...whatever the cost. It would be a relief to not have to rely on so many other contingencies.

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4 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Denver would not put the pick up for sale if they were thinking qb......  There are players graded higher than qbs denver could take at 5 but if they were thinking qb no way would they sell it. Imo 

 

Did you ever drive by a pick-up for sale on the side of the road and decide to stop and check it out?  When you pull up to look at it the sign in the window has a price that's way more than you were thinking the truck is worth.  Just because something has a for sale sign in the window doesn't necessarily mean it will be sold.

 

Denver may be thinking we'll either stay put and potentially take QB or ask for a ton of draft capital for our pick.  Either way they win.

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39 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

Did you ever drive by a pick-up for sale on the side of the road and decide to stop and check it out?  When you pull up to look at it the sign in the window has a price that's way more than you were thinking the truck is worth.  Just because something has a for sale sign in the window doesn't necessarily mean it will be sold.

 

Denver may be thinking we'll either stay put and potentially take QB or ask for a ton of draft capital for our pick.  Either way they win.

 

 

Could be but I think they will move back 

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1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

It was reported that they might take Mayfield or Darnold. They didn't like Rosen or Allen. Benjamin Albright reported that Rosen is off their board completely. They also reportedly like Barkley, Chubb, Nelson but they also liked the idea of trading back with the Bills and taking Ward and Will Hernandez.

I think these reports about who loves whom are sometimes accurate sometimes guesses and sometime purposefully incorrect.  I don't think any of them can be assumed to be true whether it helps the Bills chances or hurts.  

 

Last year Trubiniski didn't even know the Bears liked him so much.  

 

If if one looks logically at the team's in play, their needs, and their draft capital  before any trades, I don't think it looks great for the Bills to get a top 4 QB.  I'm also not totally convinced that the top 4 in the press is actually the same as with the teams.  I can see Javkson being in some top 4s for sure.

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6 hours ago, Mat68 said:

If you want Rosen you go to 2.  There is no way Gettlman drafts a rb in a deep rb draft over 3 1s.  Chubb is not Clowney, Garrett in terms of special.  They need line help and they draft McClichky OT from Nd at 12.  22 they add another starter.

i can't see why the giants would not take rosen and set themselves up for the next decade. eli is 38 and chances are good it's his last year starting in ny.

 

however, if the browns take darnold and 3 1sts gets me 2, i would take mayfield....i think. hate to see rosen in a jets uni tho.

then on the other hand, i have faith in a.j. and nate and want to use as many picks as possible.

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Depends on who "our guy" is.  Assuming we only have our target set on a single QB, and not a few of them.

 

You really can't believe any of the reports out there. 

 

Maybe the Giants are telling everyone they want Sam Darnold, because they want to increase the price tag for the #2 pick.  Picking a Top 5 quarterback is a franchise game-changer.  It alters your entire strategy, not only for the draft, but the entire season.  If they go for Saquan Barkley, Bradley Chubb, etc. - that suggests they are comfortable with Eli Manning for a year or two and will try to win now before he retires.  If they take a QB, it signals a total rebuild for the franchise.  It's two totally different directions.  I have a tough time believing Dave Gettleman is waiting on the Cleveland Browns to decide his entire strategy for 2018.

 

If I had to guess, I think the Bills have a few QBs they would be comfortable with taking.  Which one they get will ultimately depend on how the board falls, and what the price tag is to move up.

 

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7 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Denver would not put the pick up for sale if they were thinking qb......  There are players graded higher than qbs denver could take at 5 but if they were thinking qb no way would they sell it. Imo 

  I think that the pick was only put up "for sale" to see if somebody would pay "stupid money" in terms of compensation.  Elway did not say that trading out of 5 had to happen but rather played the used car salesman in that he would listen to offers.  That's going to be the game for any of the top teams in the draft.  "We'll  sell IF we get an offer we like."  Kind of like the guy on Craigslist who has a car priced at 20K when Kelly's Blue Book has it at 10K.

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