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We May Need to Resign Ourselves to Allen at 5


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This is no endorsement; my greatest draft-related fear this spring has been trading a massive amount of assets to move up for the QB who actually NEEDS us to hold onto most of those assets because he (Allen) needs the most help (at least the Giants' refusal to trade out of 2 means it'll cost less than the Bills moving up to #5).  But my intuitive sense has been building for a while that Allen is who we'll have in our possession two nights from now.  Why do I feel that way?

 

The physical characteristics that would appeal to McBeane are obvious but include prototypical size (and then some), especially for the region of the country in which Buffalo plays, the fact that Allen is mildly reminiscent to Cam between his arm, escapability, and mobility (less mobile, clearly, but an even bigger arm- according to Trent Dilfer it isn't hyperbolic to say THE biggest arm the NFL has ever seen), AND more importantly Allen's humble and hard-working nature seems to embody the culture McBeane wants.  I personally really like Baker Mayfield but I feel the Bills feel he doesn't (he'll likely be gone by three, anyway).

 

Allen's play on the field- not just isolating last year, when Wyoming's offense saw many key defections- doesn't warrant being second on the Bills' board.... or any team's board.  But according to Charlie Casserly, who spoke to 24 different teams, Allen is the consensus #2 QB.  And superficially most of us would agree that's the building consensus, if we're being honest.

 

To Allen’s credit, he’s had a “clean” draft process and has impressed at every turn. Mind you, we’re taking about against a defense that isn’t allowed to blitz (Senior Bowl) and in a t-shirt and shorts (Combine and Pro Day). But some teams still see (what they believe to be) real progress.

 

And though it's dumbfounding (the durability concerns are valid; character concerns are overblown at best)... Josh Rosen just hasn't been able to shake matters related to likability and get teams to buy in.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770325-love-and-football-nfl-insiders-on-the-josh-rosen-question-and-why-it-matters?share=twitter

 

Since it seems Darnold is still going 1st overall (if Benjamin Allright is vindicated), Baker's going 3 and has an incompatible personality anyway, and teams are generally lukewarm on Rosen... it leads to Allen.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.  But don't be surprised.  And brace yourselves for it.

Edited by Midwest1981
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3 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I think the good news is this...

 

If the Bills are to choose one of Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen or Allen, there’s a 75% chance the Bills don’t select Allen.

 

So there’s that.

I think- for all intents and purposes- the Bills will have two choices, most likely:  Darnold won't figure into the equation since he'll go #1 and since the Giants are unyielding in terms of moving out of #2 one of Mayfield/Rosen isn't an option, either, since the Jets will take one.

 

If it comes down to the Josh's... 90% of the board won't like the surname uttered by Goodell in 45 hours, I fear.

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

As I've mentioned before, trading up for Allen will only compound the disaster of picking him. If we're going to take a flyer on him, at least don't trade up to do it. 

I read your comprehensive post compiling all of the numbers-based (i.e. analytically driven and not subject to subjectivity/bias) reasons for avoiding Allen.  And I've come across all of those at one point this draft season.  

 

And I don't disagree.  I'm not saying I WANT this to happen- I just feel this is where this is headed.  

 

I don't know if having a couple of days to reconcile ourselves to it will lessen the blow.  Maybe, maybe not.  But please don't be caught off-guard.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

Edited by Midwest1981
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I hope you're wrong, too!

 

I keep thinking that this FO is different, that Beane and McD know what they're doing...but then, I remember...it's still the Bills. 

 

So now I'm just assuming the pick will be Allen. I'm just praying they don't move up to 2 for him. 

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Allen at 5 has me nervous and is what I would consider to be the worst possible scenario on Thursday.  (Aside from Allen at 2 but I don't think that will happen)  If Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield are gone by 5 I'd rather the Bills wait and pick a QB at 12.  

 

I read somewhere today that the only 1st round QBs the Bills have ever drafted (aside from Jim Kelly) are JP Losman and EJ Manuel.  It seems almost cruel to start that cycle again with a big, athletic QB, great combine numbers, major accuracy issues but lots of "potential".  We've already had to go through that twice in the past decade or so, both times missing on multiple great QB prospects in future years while we waited for our guy to develop.  Only this time it would probably cost us 2 1sts and a 2nd to get to pick 5.   

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

I think- for all intents and purposes- the Bills will have two choices, most likely:  Darnold won't figure into the equation since he'll go #1 and since the Giants are unyielding in terms of moving out of #2 one of Mayfield/Rosen isn't an option, either, since the Jets will take one.

 

If it comes down to the Josh's... 90% of the board won't like the surname uttered by Goodell in 45 hours, I fear.

I read your comprehensive post compiling all of the numbers-based (i.e. analytically driven and not subject to subjectivity/bias) reasons for avoiding Allen.  And I've come across all of those at one point this draft season.  

 

And I don't disagree.  I'm not saying I WANT this to happen- I just feel this is where this is headed.  

 

I don't know if having a couple of days to reconcile ourselves to it will lessen the blow.  Maybe, maybe not.  But please don't be caught off-guard.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

You see, I have a weird feeling the Jets will take Allen.

 

Its just a feeling. And if it happens, I’ll probably find the closest female, and impregnate her as if we were the last two humans on earth.

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4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

You see, I have a weird feeling the Jets will take Allen.

 

Its just a feeling. And if it happens, I’ll probably find the closest female, and impregnate her as if we were the last two humans on earth.

I buy into Daniel Jeremiah's "opposite theory" as it concerns the Jets and Allen.  Two years in between just isn't enough time to get the fanbase to forget about drafting Christian Hackenberg, another QB with notorious accuracy issues (his are so bad that he hasn't even played a snap, not even when the Jets stopped caring about winning last year- he would've been that much of a disaster).

 

Allen would draw too many allusions to Hackenberg, especially since- at least at the moment- he's still on the Jets' roster.

 

Mayfield or Rosen aren't perfect prospects but accuracy and mental processing aren't concerns.

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I'm PRAYING for Cleveland to take Allen #1 overall.

 

I don't think it's going to happen however.

 

 

I know we all briefly had that hope last week... but I think that ship has sailed.  Cleveland's not saving us from ourselves.

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I just came across this.  It's not a shock to see a pundit mention this but it could be confirmation of what's mostly my intuition, as well as putting a few things together in a not unnatural way.  I guess we'll see.

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-rumors-news-2018-josh-rosen-baker-mayfield-seahawks-patriots/we39wjkoszkh1865uxzb1c7fp

 

— Mitchell Trubisky last year was a target of the Bills in a possible trade. Buffalo instead opted not to mortgage its future to move up and get him; it traded down and kicked the can down the road. This year, the Bills’ intention of drafting a quarterback has been clear since the middle of the regular season. They have evaluated Josh Rosen and Josh Allen, and I believe both have been considered throughout the process.

 

Almost everyone I’ve spoken with believes the Bills will find a way to draft Allen. Assuming he doesn't go first overall, they could do it with a trade up to No. 2, No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6.

Edited by Midwest1981
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38 minutes ago, par73 said:

Allen is the one guy I would not touch in the first round (no idea how the Bills feel). I'd rather trade back than take him.

He will not get past QB needy teams like Dolphins and Cardinals.

 

If going up to 5 or 6 to get him will cost us a 2nd and 3rd rounder, I think the Bills have to do it here. The bills have to keep trying to look for that franchise QB and draft when the opportunity presents itself.  May be they will get 3rd time lucky after Losman and Manuel

 

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