DCOrange Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 (edited) http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/04/21/nfl-draft-the-most-important-stat-for-every-top-qb-prospect/astrou7/ His overall QB rankings for those that are interested is: 1. Darnold - Top 5 Grade 2. Baker - Top 10 Grade 3. Rosen - Top 10 Grade 4. Lamar - 1st round Grade 5. Allen - 2nd-3rd round Grade 6. Rudolph - 2nd-3rd round Grade Some important excerpts regarding each prospect: Baker Mayfield: Quote The biggest questions for Mayfield aren’t his size or his arm strength; it’s about the offense he hails from. How much did Lincoln Riley’s offense “make” Mayfield? Because if you just look at the numbers, we have never seen a more prolific passer in college football history. Lamar Jackson: Quote Lamar Jackson is an elite QB prospect for multiple reasons. The first (and most important) is that he is a terrific passer. His passing numbers, situational stats and splits all rival the top prospects in the class. He was a better red zone passer than Josh Rosen in his collegiate career and had similar passing success on third down as Rosen and Josh Allen... On first down, when the defense has to account for both the pass and run, Jackson accumulated 2,361 yards from scrimmage on 288 plays. That means that Jackson averaged an absurd 8.2 yards per play when Lousiville put the ball in his hands to make a play. In 2017, Jackson scored 23 touchdowns on first down and turned the ball over just twice. His passer rating on first down? 116.5. Mason Rudolph: Quote In 2017, no quarterback was better on third down than Rudolph. Sam Darnold: Quote On third-and-6 or less in 2017, Darnold had an insane passer rating of 150. However, when he was forced to pass on any distance worse than that, he struggled. Darnold’s passer rating dropped all the way down to 78.9 — a drop of more than 70 points... To potentially avoid this fatal flaw in the NFL, Darnold would be best suited in a run-heavy scheme that allows him to get to third-and-short more often. Josh Rosen: Quote Of all of the draft-eligible quarterbacks in the 2018 class, Rosen had the worst passer rating in the red zone. He completed less than 48 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions in 2017. What is somewhat alarming is that this has become a trend for Rosen. In 2016, Rosen’s red zone passer rating was just 61.2. Josh Allen: Quote According to Pro Football Focus’ 2018 Draft Guide, the average passer rating among 38 draft-eligible quarterbacks when kept clean (no pressure) was 104.5. That number drops all the way down to 70.6 when pressured, which makes sense. When quarterbacks feel pressure, they tend to panic and make mistakes... ...Josh Allen, who struggled mightily when pressured, as evidenced by his passer rating under pressure of just 57.9. Allen has received comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford, both players who thrive when things get muddy around them. Edited April 23, 2018 by DCOrange 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offyourocker Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Every stat and analysis I saw in the last 2 months show that Josh Allen sucks. I really hope we don't bank our future on this guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zac Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Jackson stat is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offyourocker Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Rudolph seems pretty clutch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Top of the list for me is I want a QB that hates to lose (Peyton Manning, Brady, Breese.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Stopped reading this when he wrote "Jackson is a terrific passer." The guy is either prone to hyperbole, or just completely wrong. Lamar Jackson has a ton of athletic ability, but if he is drafted in the first round it wont be because he is a "terrific passer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 23, 2018 Author Share Posted April 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: Stopped reading this when he wrote "Jackson is a terrific passer." The guy is either prone to hyperbole, or just completely wrong. Lamar Jackson has a ton of athletic ability, but if he is drafted in the first round it wont be because he is a "terrific passer" You missed out on a good article from a great analyst 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17 Josh Allen Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 based on this Lamar Jackson is the best player in this draft bar none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 57 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: Stopped reading this when he wrote "Jackson is a terrific passer." The guy is either prone to hyperbole, or just completely wrong. Lamar Jackson has a ton of athletic ability, but if he is drafted in the first round it wont be because he is a "terrific passer" No it is probably because of the gawdy amount of passing td's that he threw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 50 minutes ago, DCOrange said: You missed out on a good article from a great analyst Some people will not let objective evidence overcome preconceived bias. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17 Josh Allen Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Anyone feel like I do that there is a chance we look back 5 years from now and will say why we did not draft Lamar Jackson. He might be the Goat ? of this draft class. He has better career rushing stats then barkley by a good amount and his passing stats are even or if not better then supposedly top 4 QB’s In this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 yeah, I really feel Jackson might be the most underrated of this class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: No it is probably because of the gawdy amount of passing td's that he threw 23 touchdowns a year in college now qualifies as "gaudy" I think Jackson has an incredibly strong arm and out of this world ability with his feet, but you need more than a strong arm to be considered a "terrific passer." Everyone is entitled to their opinion on him, but my opinion is he can't read an entire field and is wildly inaccurate at times. Long term I think he ends up being a guy that flashes early, makes incredible plays, and wins you 50% of your games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 1 minute ago, thenorthremembers said: 23 touchdowns a year in college now qualifies as "gaudy" I think Jackson has an incredibly strong arm and out of this world ability with his feet, but you need more than a strong arm to be considered a "terrific passer." Everyone is entitled to their opinion on him, but my opinion is he can't read an entire field and is wildly inaccurate at times. Long term I think he ends up being a guy that flashes early, makes incredible plays, and wins you 50% of your games. The original premise was that his production is being looked at because he is a great athlete (which he is) i am pointing out that he also passed a lot of TD's in his production Improved every year of college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Some people will not let objective evidence overcome preconceived bias. You have just summed up the key problem in the world today, not just in football evaluation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 I’m talking myself into Jackson. Getting him at 12 and filling in the roster could be intriguing. Ideally my I want Rosen, but I’m becoming more concerned we won’t have a shot at Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield. If jackson sucks, take another QB when we draft top-3 next year. 56 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: 23 touchdowns a year in college now qualifies as "gaudy" I think Jackson has an incredibly strong arm and out of this world ability with his feet, but you need more than a strong arm to be considered a "terrific passer." Everyone is entitled to their opinion on him, but my opinion is he can't read an entire field and is wildly inaccurate at times. Long term I think he ends up being a guy that flashes early, makes incredible plays, and wins you 50% of your games. I think it was 23 TDS on first down. Not total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elroy16 Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Quote Mason Rudolph — Passer Rating of 112 on Third Down This seems obvious, but the most important down in football is third down. While this is pretty common knowledge to even the most casual football fan, we sometimes forget its importance when judging quarterbacks. If a quarterback performs well on the most critical down, it likely means they are a good passer. Did anyone listen to Warren Sharp on WGR last week? In all it was a meh interview, I was hoping they'd dig deeper into Warren's analytics, but anyway. At one point Warren mentioned he believes the above is a misconception and that first down is really the most important down. The reasoning (fairly self explanatory) is that you can avoid the difficult to convert 3rd and longs if you are successful on first downs. The reason I bring that up is because of what DCOrage highlighted from the article. Quote On first down, when the defense has to account for both the pass and run, Jackson accumulated 2,361 yards from scrimmage on 288 plays. That means that Jackson averaged an absurd 8.2 yards per play when Lousiville put the ball in his hands to make a play. In 2017, Jackson scored 23 touchdowns on first down and turned the ball over just twice. His passer rating on first down? 116.5. Where Jackson got into trouble is when the offense forced him to carry a bad supporting cast on third-and-long. That’s when Jackson saw both his passing and rushing efficiency drop significantly. Something that is interesting when comparing Rudolph and Jackson's third down numbers are Jackson's are very close in terms of completion % and YPA, he gets in trouble with the high number of INT's and low TD's. Rosen's red zone %'s make me a little nervous about him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 2 hours ago, yungmack said: You have just summed up the key problem in the world today, not just in football evaluation. Quite unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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