Would 2 #1's Be More Enticing Than 2 #1's ??

[T master]

Okay here is another draft scenario question (if it has been talked about this way i apologize) to the Bills fan base that i have heard put forth either on talk shows or blogs that i have read or heard articles on which may have some substance to their prognostications !

 

I have heard those that have much more of a connection to the NFL as a every day part of their lives being sports writers & such than i do just being a fan,  given the case that the Browns with 2 draft picks in the first round this year that could want the same next yr .

 

 If the Bills were to give up their 2019 first round pick along with only 1 from this yr #12 that that might be a bit more enticing for the Browns than 2 picks from this yr's draft to actually trade out of the #4 spot  & still have 2 first round picks this yr & next .

 

So if the Bills were to put this yr's #12 pick with next yr's #1 (what ever that might be) along with a second &/or a third this yr to get up to #4 & keep the #22 pick in this yr's draft do you think that would be more enticing to the Browns to move out of #4 than the Bills giving up their 2 picks from this yr's draft  ? 

 

I know the Browns will try to push getting all 3 #1's + but if Bean stays strong at this deal do you think the Browns would make the deal ? 

 

I'm not sure if that would work out in the draft compensation equation or not but it may be something to look into for Bean & company ! The Browns could also think that isn't enough for them to move out of that spot but possibly the lure of having 2 first rounders again next yr could sway them in that direction ?

 

I hate giving away a lot of picks on what could be another maybe QB but if there is a scenario that i might be okay with i think this just might be it & it would be a way for the Bills to get 2 first rounders this yr which could very well make up for the loss of next yr's first .

 

Sorry i was doing some looking after the fact it's already being talked about ...

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by T master

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I think I speak for everybody when I say.......what?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, T master said:

Okay here is another draft scenario question (if it has been talked about this way i apologize) to the Bills fan base that i have heard put forth either on talk shows or blogs that i have read or heard articles on which may have some substance to their prognostications !

 

I have heard those that have much more of a connection to the NFL as a every day part of their lives being sports writers & such than i do just being a fan,  given the case that the Browns with 2 draft picks in the first round this year that could want the same next yr .

 

 If the Bills were to give up their 2019 first round pick along with only 1 from this yr #12 that that might be a bit more enticing for the Browns than 2 picks from this yr's draft to actually trade out of the #4 spot  & still have 2 first round picks this yr & next .

 

So if the Bills were to put this yr's #12 pick with next yr's #1 (what ever that might be) along with a second &/or a third this yr to get up to #4 & keep the #22 pick in this yr's draft do you think that would be more enticing to the Browns to move out of #4 than the Bills giving up their 2 picks from this yr's draft  ? 

 

I know the Browns will try to push getting all 3 #1's + but if Bean stays strong at this deal do you think the Browns would make the deal ? 

 

I'm not sure if that would work out in the draft compensation equation or not but it may be something to look into for Bean & company ! The Browns could also think that isn't enough for them to move out of that spot but possibly the lure of having 2 first rounders again next yr could sway them in that direction ?

 

I hate giving away a lot of picks on what could be another maybe QB but if there is a scenario that i might be okay with i think this just might be it & it would be a way for the Bills to get 2 first rounders this yr which could very well make up for the loss of next yr's first .

 

Sorry i was doing some looking after the fact it's already being talked about ...

 

 

I'm not sure I understand, but I think you are saying:

 

Browns should prefer a trade offer of #12 and next year's #1

vs

#12 and #22 this year

 

In theory, it's not impossible, but in general, picks in this year's draft are held to be more desireable and have higher value because 1) you can use them to help your team immediately 2) you know exactly which pick you are getting vs. depending upon the other team's success or failure next year.

[wppete]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure I understand, but I think you are saying:

 

Browns should prefer a trade offer of #12 and next year's #1

vs

#12 and #22 this year

 

In theory, it's not impossible, but in general, picks in this year's draft are held to be more desireable and have higher value because 1) you can use them to help your team immediately 2) you know exactly which pick you are getting vs. depending upon the other team's success or failure next year.

 

It worked out with Cleveland this year from last years trade with the Texans. Browns got the #4 pick this year because the Texans were destroyed by injuries last year. 

[KDIGGZ]

A future pick is valued as 1 round lower. So a future 1st is viewed like a 2nd round pick in this draft

[Bakin]

I’m positively opposed to giving away next years number 1. 

[White Linen]

4 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

A future pick is valued as 1 round lower. So a future 1st is viewed like a 2nd round pick in this draft

 

I know you've heard that but a team getting the future just tries to negotiate it that way.  

[cle23]

11 minutes ago, wppete said:

 

It worked out with Cleveland this year from last years trade with the Texans. Browns got the #4 pick this year because the Texans were destroyed by injuries last year. 

And #35 because Brock Osweiler is that terrible.

[The Frankish Reich]

14 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

A future pick is valued as 1 round lower. So a future 1st is viewed like a 2nd round pick in this draft

Always true, in the draft or in economics. But ... it's possible teams are thinking the Bills 2019 #1 will be a very high pick because the Bills 2018 will suck. Which, by the way, is more likely to be true if we get a rookie QB and start him for most of the season, so it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy.  I'd do it!

Edited April 21, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[KDIGGZ]

10 minutes ago, White Linen said:

I know you've heard that but a team getting the future just tries to negotiate it that way.  

As described in the OP I don't think any team will value a future 1st more than a current 1st. Maybe they view them as equal or the future as less than as is typically the case. Future is definitely not worth more

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, kdiggz said:

As described in the OP I don't think any team will value a future 1st more than a current 1st. Maybe they view them as equal or the future as less than as is typically the case. Future is definitely not worth more

But maybe the correct calculation is this:  Pick #22 in 2018 vs. Pick #4 in 2019? That is, gambling on the Bills being doormats this season? If you're Cleveland, and you already have too many rookies and 2nd year players on your roster, maybe that makes a lot of sense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, Bakin said:

I’m positively opposed to giving away next years number 1. 

 

Well, I'm positively opposed to going into this season with a choice of AJ McCarron and Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson at QB.  So where does that get us both?

 

31 minutes ago, wppete said:

 

It worked out with Cleveland this year from last years trade with the Texans. Browns got the #4 pick this year because the Texans were destroyed by injuries last year. 

 

Right, but the point is, when you're evaluating your draft capital, you don't want to bank on the other team being destroyed by injuries.

McDermott did better with the Bills this year than was generally expected.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[CommonCents]

It's not only entirely possible, it's probably true. Albert Breer was just on the radio saying yesterday that the Bills 12th pick has good value in a trade up but 22 is viewed the same as 52 by many teams this year. He said he has talked to someone from every organization by now and the majority of teams only have 20 players graded as first rounders.

 

Offering the 19' 1st rounder instead of parting with 22 would be foolish from a Bills perspective but it may help get the deal done.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

35 minutes ago, Bakin said:

I’m positively opposed to giving away next years number 1. 

 

 

....agree.....the 2019 landscape is barely developing.....keeping the pick and having $85+ mil to spend surely sets up 2019 to be interesting IMO......

[K-9]

39 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

A future pick is valued as 1 round lower. So a future 1st is viewed like a 2nd round pick in this draft

I've been trying to argue this point in another thread, which is why I'd much rather retain 22 this year and trade next year's 1 if it comes to that. And there aren't going to be all these QBs to push better players down next year, either. I keep hearing "but we are gonna suck and we will be picking in the top 10, yada yada yada." That makes little sense to me from the Bills perspective. Can you imagine the mindset that ingrains going into this season? 

Edited April 21, 2018 by K-9

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

It's not only entirely possible, it's probably true. Albert Breer was just on the radio saying yesterday that the Bills 12th pick has good value in a trade up but 22 is viewed the same as 52 by many teams this year. He said he has talked to someone from every organization by now and the majority of teams only have 20 players graded as first rounders.

 

Offering the 19' 1st rounder instead of parting with 22 would be foolish from a Bills perspective but it may help get the deal done.

True (the first part), but I'm not sure it's foolish on the Bills part to give up the 2019 first rounder IF it gets you the QB you want. By all accounts, the 2019 QB class will be up there (umm, down there) with that EJ Manuel class as one of the really weak ones. With no reasonable prospect for signing/trading for a franchise (or even sub-franchise, Kirk Cousins type) on the horizon, there's a lot to be said for making the deal now with an idea of a true competition window starting in 2020 which may just happen to coincide with the end of the Pats' two-decade long run ...

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

True (the first part), but I'm not sure it's foolish on the Bills part to give up the 2019 first rounder IF it gets you the QB you want. By all accounts, the 2019 QB class will be up there (umm, down there) with that EJ Manuel class as one of the really weak ones. With no reasonable prospect for signing/trading for a franchise (or even sub-franchise, Kirk Cousins type) on the horizon, there's a lot to be said for making the deal now with an idea of a true competition window starting in 2020 which may just happen to coincide with the end of the Pats' two-decade long run ...

If it's what takes to get the deal done the of course you do it. I just wouldn't offer up the 19 first in place of 22.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Commonsense

[Bakin]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, I'm positively opposed to going into this season with a choice of AJ McCarron and Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson at QB.  So where does that get us both?

 

 

Right, but the point is, when you're evaluating your draft capital, you don't want to bank on the other team being destroyed by injuries.

McDermott did better with the Bills this year than was generally expected.

I guess that leaves us at an impasse. 

Are you willing to give up all 5 top 100 picks and a first next year to move to #2?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

It's not only entirely possible, it's probably true. Albert Breer was just on the radio saying yesterday that the Bills 12th pick has good value in a trade up but 22 is viewed the same as 52 by many teams this year. He said he has talked to someone from every organization by now and the majority of teams only have 20 players graded as first rounders.

 

This makes no logical sense, even if it's true that the majority of teams only have 20 players graded as first rounders

1) how many players they gonna have graded as 1st rounders next year?  Anyone guaranteeing it will be >20?

 

2) teams continue to grade players after the 1st round.  To believe that team see no difference in quality and potential between the player they could draft at 22, and the player they could draft at 52, almost 2/3 of the way into the 2nd round, is beyond silly

 

Either Albert  Breer is a dufus, or he thinks NFL teams are dufuses, or he thinks all his listeners are.

 

1 minute ago, Bakin said:

I guess that leaves us at an impasse. 

Are you willing to give up all 5 top 100 picks and a first next year to move to #2?

 

There would appear to be a lot of space between refusing to consider next year's first round pick, and giving up 6 picks including 3 - 1st rounders.

 

But hypothetically, if there is a QB the Bills wholeheartedly believe could be The Man and that's what it takes to get him, Do It.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This makes no logical sense, even if it's true that the majority of teams only have 20 players graded as first rounders

1) how many players they gonna have graded as 1st rounders next year?  Anyone guaranteeing it will be >20?

 

2) teams continue to grade players after the 1st round.  To believe that team see no difference in quality and potential between the player they could draft at 22, and the player they could draft at 52, almost 2/3 of the way into the 2nd round, is beyond silly

 

Either Albert  Breer is a dufus, or he thinks NFL teams are dufuses, or he thinks all his listeners are.

 

Or he expects his listeners to take the information and process it instead of rage because their team isn't being propped up in his message. If a team that is trading with the Bills sees them as being this years Houston and not KC how do you suppose they would value that 19th first.

 

Bills are starting AJ, Peterman, or a rookie under a new OC. They have the 5th worst SB odds. The Bills 19 first rounder is gold, I hope they are able to keep it.

 

Breer is one of the most connected guys and if you don't accept that just because there is 32 picks doesn't mean there is 32 players worthy of it. He is on record saying after the first 20 or so picks there is a bunch of guys who grade similarly all the way to 52. If you don't believe it that's fine but no need to bash Breer on this one. Why would he lie? He was just explaining the possible trade scenarios. He knows the Bills have the most to offer, my guess is he was using that to say the Bills won't be keeping that 19 first if they are working with the Giants.