I'm keeping #22

[Bleedingreennc]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I'm not arguing against trying to get a good QB prospect, just suggesting that this year may be rough because, in the best case, they will be playing a rookie QB and a number of other rookies as well.  In worst case, they will be playing McCarron and a bunch of rookies.  

 

It would not be horrible if they have a 6 win season while getting a rookie QB and other position players experience, but it would really hurt if they have traded away next year's #1 to see it be a top-10 pick (that is, if they could have traded this year's 22nd and kept next year's #1).

I agree, no reason to hurt the future. I think someone drops to you.

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I don’t think that happens.  Teams know the Bills have more picks and are desperate to make a deal, so they’ll demand more.  Still it would be great come away with a QB and MLB Alf the future in this draft

Bills aren't desperate at all.  The fans?  Yeah.  

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

If Rosen gets by the Jets he may be there at 12 

Too many teams would jump at the chance to get ahead of us at 12. Not to mention Miami at 11. I’d be shocked if Rosen fell to us. And if we like him that much then go up an insure you get him.

[Andrew in CA]

Just now, K-9 said:

Too many teams would jump at the chance to get ahead of us at 12. Not to mention Miami at 11. I’d be shocked if Rosen fell to us. And if we like him that much then go up an insure you get him.

Yeah I agree.  You may be able to wait until 6-7 for your guy, but you'll be left with Jackson or Rudolph if you wait til 12.

[The Wiz]

45 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Given what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3, I think your offer looks low.

Just because one team overpaid doesn't mean everyone is going to.  That offer is fair.

 

12, 56 and 65 is 1815 in value.  5 and 6 are 1700 and 1600 respectfully.

 

Pick 53 would make it 1845 in value if they wanted to "sweeten the pot" by moving up a few spots.

Edited April 20, 2018 by The Wiz

[BuffaloHokie13]

43 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Given what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3, I think your offer looks low.

it's 142% of the value of 6, which would be a historically high premium for a pick outside the top 5. Top 3 picks carry a significantly higher premium than top 10 picks.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  What do Rivers, E. Manning, and Big Ben have to do with keeping a QB under contract in Buffalo once the rookie deal, options, and franchise tag run out?  Nothing in my mind.  You can intend to keep the rookie for 18 years but that does not mean it is going to happen.  What kept Manning, Rivers, and Big Ben where they are?  Sun, big market, and a long winning tradition in those instances.  What if health and injuries mean the rookie has pretty well faded in several years?

 

  Please re-read my comments and in particular about centers.  I NEVER said that they NEVER hit the open market.  I said that few make as far as the open market.  When only a couple of high quality position players hit the market over several years that means you can not rely on such a FA when you need him.  Youth at money positions is timing and Buffalo is on its own time table so what the contracts are for current players is what it is.   Can't worry about the Falcons or Raiders.  You know the best way not to have 30M tied up in centers and guards?  Get them through the draft!

 

  2021?  I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you actually have seen these QB's but that is not the sum of what is going on.  You do know that QB's can be traded for and that teams may have cap concerns such as they might welcome unloading a QB due to having more than one proven QB and have a shot of getting players coming in on rookie deals.

Qb is disproportionately important and also much harder to find.  There simply are few athletes on earth that can play qb at a high level in the NFL.  Injuries and health concerns are a general issue in football, but longevity is more frequent with qb and special teams players like k.  Part of evaluation of a potential franchise qb is character and fit with your organization.  It's simply defeatist to presume that a qb won't want to stay in Buffalo, especially if you are winning.

[RochesterRob]

38 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Qb is disproportionately important and also much harder to find.  There simply are few athletes on earth that can play qb at a high level in the NFL.  Injuries and health concerns are a general issue in football, but longevity is more frequent with qb and special teams players like k.  Part of evaluation of a potential franchise qb is character and fit with your organization.  It's simply defeatist to presume that a qb won't want to stay in Buffalo, especially if you are winning.

  Character and fit is of minimal impact when it comes time for a QB to sign his second contract.  A guy can be a good worker and get along with teammates, coaches, and management but have different ideas as to where he wants to play when he truly has a choice in the matter.  People point to Kelly but Kelly's situation is quite a bit different than any QB's under consideration currently for the Bills.  Kelly's hometown really is little different than the dozens of 3-5000 person towns spread across WNY.  Geographic proximity gets little mention but meant a lot to Kelly as he brought up quite a bit of family from PA to Orchard Park to see home games.  Lastly, there is a critical time/age element in play for Kelly that is not for the rookies which is age when the first big contract ran out.  The Bills still held Kelly's rights for 1986 and he even admitted at one time that made him unhappy but not to the point of refusing to sign and sitting out.  Counting the 3 years from 1983 to 1986 and the five year contract that put him at an age where partying becomes less important and being a family man becomes the main priority.  So when we re-upped Kelly he was at the perfect age to be comfortable being here complete with native wife.  

 

  A big concern I have especially with Rosen is WNY will be permanently alien to him so he goes to a place that suits him more.  

[MJS]

But if you're keeping #22, what will the Bills do?

[Just Joshin']

5 hours ago, K-9 said:

That's why I think next year's 1 might be in play. #22 this year is a better known quantity at this point in a fairly deep draft and is more valuable for that reason. It may be difficult to get a trading partner that doesn't think the same thing at this point, though.

There is a difference between deep and top talent.  I have heard the draft goes 60 deep with good players but about   8 - 10 top players.

 

Thus I would rather give up 22 this year and keep next years #1.  Especially if playing a rookie QB - high potential for record regression.

[BadLandsMeanie]

6 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

What are we going to talk about after the draft?

Apparently, about how cool it is to have a middle linebacker.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  What do Rivers, E. Manning, and Big Ben have to do with keeping a QB under contract in Buffalo once the rookie deal, options, and franchise tag run out?  Nothing in my mind.  You can intend to keep the rookie for 18 years but that does not mean it is going to happen.  What kept Manning, Rivers, and Big Ben where they are?  Sun, big market, and a long winning tradition in those instances.  What if health and injuries mean the rookie has pretty well faded in several years?

 

  Please re-read my comments and in particular about centers.  I NEVER said that they NEVER hit the open market.  I said that few make as far as the open market.  When only a couple of high quality position players hit the market over several years that means you can not rely on such a FA when you need him.  Youth at money positions is timing and Buffalo is on its own time table so what the contracts are for current players is what it is.   Can't worry about the Falcons or Raiders.  You know the best way not to have 30M tied up in centers and guards?  Get them through the draft!

 

  2021?  I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you actually have seen these QB's but that is not the sum of what is going on.  You do know that QB's can be traded for and that teams may have cap concerns such as they might welcome unloading a QB due to having more than one proven QB and have a shot of getting players coming in on rookie deals.

 

 

Let me get this straight.........you are seriously worried about a franchise QB picked near the top of the draft potentially leaving that team that drafted him in free agency(which NEVER  happens)...........but don't think good centers change teams much in free agency(when premier ones are changing teams in FA nearly every year)?

 

C'mon dude.

 

There is a reason why there was such circus around Kirk Cousins becoming a FA..........good ones RARELY hit FA.........but he was a modest pedigree draft pick that the Skins' didn't show confidence in and it caused a rare divorce between a team and a star QB.   

 

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[BigDingus]

8 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

What are we going to talk about after the draft?

 

How we missed out on all the top QB's in the class, yet snagged the most "pro-ready" and "naturally accurate" QB in round 5.

 

Obviously the Bills FO won't screw this up. 

[greeneblitz]

Bills fans starting to get greedy the closer we get to the draft, who cares how many picks it takes to get their guy, "their guy" is probably not your guy, fans here act like there are 6 franchise QBs and their all interchangeable, the Bills probably have one, maybe 2 guys that are sure bets, they need to spend whatever it takes to get that guy, not another JP Losman or EJ Manuel.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Wagon Circler said:

If I'm the Bills I'm keeping #22. I think they may trade up to 6-9, but only if they can keep #22. Middle linebacker is so glaring, they (I)  want Leighton Vander Esch badly . Any of Mayfield or Rosen; plus Vander Esch for me would be a very successful draft.

 

Sure. But the odds are probably a good deal better than even that at #6, you can no longer get Mayfield or Rosen.

 

 

6 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Apparently, about how cool it is to have a middle linebacker.

 

Heh heh.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Thurman#1

[RochesterRob]

6 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

Bills fans starting to get greedy the closer we get to the draft, who cares how many picks it takes to get their guy, "their guy" is probably not your guy, fans here act like there are 6 franchise QBs and their all interchangeable, the Bills probably have one, maybe 2 guys that are sure bets, they need to spend whatever it takes to get that guy, not another JP Losman or EJ Manuel.

Yep, some guys do act like that there are 6 franchise QB's and they are all interchangeable but that is not me.  Even after the interviews and so forth there is still a chance a prospect will not work out.  So even with full study and investigation there is still the chance of busting.  Just how it goes when human beings are involved.  Getting a QB is not like buying a 2 X 4 at Lowes.  If you get the 2 X 4 home and it has a bow then it was your fault for not catching it before you left the store.  The QB can look pretty good at the combine and at his pro day but you never know for sure until the bullets start flying which is the regular season of the NFL.  Sure the pro's get it wrong less than us fans but there is a reason a fair number of NFL teams are not loaded with a highly productive QB.

[stony]

18 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

What are we going to talk about after the draft?

a) It was a good draft

b) It was a bad draft

c) We overspent to trade up

d) I can't believe Beane didn't trade up

e) (Insert 5th round pick name here) Will be a steal. Day 1 starter.

 

[T master]

 

To move any where inside the top 10 will take both of this years #1's & depending on how high the Bills want to go could take 3 this yr's + next & more depending on the trade partner but i don't think there is any one of the QB's in this yr's draft that are a bonafide/guaranteed, NFL superstar QB !

 

So what price do you pay on a maybe that would be the question ? 

 

I think i would rather go old school & take a prospect that has had a good college career with all the "NFL Prototypical" intangibles like a Rudolph, White  or another QB that could fall to us at 12 ( or move up a couple to get the guy they want) or even later & let him sit a yr or 2 & then bring him in like a Rogers, Favre, Brady, Brees did & see what AJ & or Peterman can do given the chance . Don't pull a DItka !!

 

That way there is less pressure right off the bat because given this (or any other fan base) if they choose a QB in the top 10 they will be expected to play right away & if he goofs up the fans will tear them to shreds which could ruin another Bills QB ...

 

Instant gratification is a fan bases worse enemy !! Buyers remorse is even worse !! 

 

I wonder the success rate of QB's that sit a yr or so to those that have been thrown into the fire immediately ??

 

Could be something for another post !!

Edited April 21, 2018 by T master

[K-9]

1 hour ago, T master said:

 

To move any where inside the top 10 will take both of this years #1's & depending on how high the Bills want to go could take 3 this yr's + next & more depending on the trade partner but i don't think there is any one of the QB's in this yr's draft that are a bonafide/guaranteed, NFL superstar QB !

 

So what price do you pay on a maybe that would be the question ? 

 

I think i would rather go old school & take a prospect that has had a good college career with all the "NFL Prototypical" intangibles like a Rudolph, White  or another QB that could fall to us at 12 ( or move up a couple to get the guy they want) or even later & let him sit a yr or 2 & then bring him in like a Rogers, Favre, Brady, Brees did & see what AJ & or Peterman can do given the chance . Don't pull a DItka !!

 

That way there is less pressure right off the bat because given this (or any other fan base) if they choose a QB in the top 10 they will be expected to play right away & if he goofs up the fans will tear them to shreds which could ruin another Bills QB ...

 

Instant gratification is a fan bases worse enemy !! Buyers remorse is even worse !! 

 

I wonder the success rate of QB's that sit a yr or so to those that have been thrown into the fire immediately ??

 

Could be something for another post !!

Moving from 12 to 9 will not cost 22. And given our extra picks in the second and third rounds, we wouldn't necessarily have to spend 22 to get to 7, either.