BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 hour ago, QCity said: The Pro Bowl pool has become quite diluted in recent years. There are players who deliberately pass on going just to create another possibility that a friend (who's in a contract year) might get that selection. Some but take a look at this year’s 1st and 2nd team Pro Bowl players that were announced in-season. Just about all of the names deserved to be there. There’s always a few veteran lineman who get in because of their name value, but they already have developed a reputations for being one of the best in the past. Yes there will always be “Mike Tolberts” but for the most part being named to a Pro Bowl is still valued and rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Some but take a look at this year’s 1st and 2nd team Pro Bowl players that were announced in-season. Just about all of the names deserved to be there. There’s always a few veteran lineman who get in because of their name value, but they already have developed a reputations for being one of the best in the past. Yes there will always be “Mike Tolberts” but for the most part being named to a Pro Bowl is still valued and rightfully so. Your analysis also doesn't give any weight to positions. Who's the better GM, the guy who drafts 4 Pro Bowl players at FB, S, P, K or the GM who drafts 2 Pro Bowl players at QB and DE? It's well researched and presented nicely, but ultimately it means very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Did not read the thread, but going to bet there are some who say the Pro Bowl does not matter. Just wanted to check in and say I agree with those people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, QCity said: Your analysis also doesn't give any weight to positions. Who's the better GM, the guy who drafts 4 Pro Bowl players at FB, S, P, K or the GM who drafts 2 Pro Bowl players at QB and DE? It's well researched and presented nicely, but ultimately it means very little. Again though does it really matter? what’s the difference between a Pro Bowl DE and Pro Bowl S? Outside of maybe FB or P, a successful pick is a successful pick. I can tell you without even looking that no Buffalo GM on that list has ever drafted a Pro Bowl QB. Really that’s the only position that matters Also none of the Buffalo GM on that list have drafted a Pro Bowl P, K, or FB. So your point means nothing to the group of Buffalo GM’s. I think it’s clear what it mean. The draft is a crap shoot. The food GM’s hit about 10% of the time. The crappy GM’s are in the single digits....or lower Edited April 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 19 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: Many would disagree with you Most would not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 18 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod. That’s 4 more pro bowl players. Kiko never made a Pro Bowl. Neither did Jerry Hughes. Solid math. 16 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said: That's easy to say (and so cliche at this point) but it's as good a barometer as any. If a guy's good, he's gonna find a way to a Pro Bowl. It's been so long, I can't even remember if you were pro or anti-EJ that summer of 2015 when a dozen or so of us spent way too much time on here arguing about the guy. I think you were with me on the anti-EJ train but then we became opponents as I was pro-Taylor and you were anti-Taylor. Do I have that right? Gug is so pro-Erik Rodriguez that it's coming out of his ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Some but take a look at this year’s 1st and 2nd team Pro Bowl players that were announced in-season. Just about all of the names deserved to be there. There’s always a few veteran lineman who get in because of their name value, but they already have developed a reputations for being one of the best in the past. Yes there will always be “Mike Tolberts” but for the most part being named to a Pro Bowl is still valued and rightfully so. Still doesn't change the fact that this stat says NOTHING. lol. Belichick has done more with less pro bowlers. Great. Makes me feel a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 21 hours ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said: Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest. This means nothing Ruben Brown made it, they say, on the strength of his barbecue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 20 hours ago, Gugny said: If Dak Prescott were to be done after this year's preseason, who would have had the more successful career .... Dak? Or Alex Van Pelt? This like saying if I work at Waffle House for 50 years I had a better career than working 10 years as a brain surgeon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 22 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: The 2017 NFL Draft is one week away and it's a huge one for us Bills fans. If you listen to many of the draft pundits evaluating talent, many times you will hear about draft picks becoming "Pro Bowl talent." Well I researched which Bills GM's were the most successful at drafting Pro Bowl talent and how they compare to GM's from around the league as well. Unlike Hits and Misses, I did not discriminate between whether a player made the Pro Bowl on the Bills or with another team. I also removed any subjectivity about the selection. I also added the number of drafts that the GM's took part in. You'll see that drafting Pro Bowl is a lot like a baseball players batting average. It's much easier to hit .500 with 10 at bats, than it is with 100 etc. What you find below may surprise you. The names that you associate failure and success with in terms of drafting, may just surprise you. Of course, drafting Pro Bowl players is not the only means of success for a GM or a franchise. But again, what someone defines as a "good" or "bad" pick is very subjective. It is very hard to disagree that a player that was selected and made the Pro Bowl was a "bad" pick. Anyway here's the Bills list: General Manager Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Draft Picks Rate of Success Marv Levy 2006-2007 2 4 16 25% Tom Donahue 2001-2005 6 5 36 13.9% Russ Brandon 2008-2009 2 2 18 11.1% Bill Polian 1986-1991 6 6 72 8.3% John Butler 1992-2000 9 5 81 6.2% Buddy Nix 2010-2013 4 2 35 5.7% Doug Whaley 2014-2016 3 0 20 0.0% Where else would you rather be, than #1 on this list!?!?!?! Now let's see how these numbers compare to the top GM's in the league: General Manager Team Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Draft Picks Rate of Success Bill Belichick New England 2000-2017 18 17 150 11.3% Ozzie Newsome Baltimore 2002-2017 16 15 137 10.9% Thomas Dimitroff Atlanta 2008-2017 10 7 74 9.5% Kevin Colbert Pittsburgh 2010-2017 8 6 67 8.9% Howie Roseman Philadelphia 2010-2014, 2016 6 5 56 8.9% David Caldwell Jacksonville 2013-2017 5 3 39 7.7% So what are some of the overall takeaways here: 1. it's really hard to consistently draft Pro Bowl players in the draft. 2. The draft is a crapshoot. You are going to miss quite often, so like baseball it's best to get as many swings as possible. 3. The really good General Managers are usually only to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 10 picks. 4. The really bad GM's are only able to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 25 picks (or worse) 5. Despite all of the misses from Bill Belichick, he has done a relatively good job of selecting talent over the past two decades. Ditto for Ozzie Newsome. Now the takeaways for the Bills GM's: 1. Surprisingly Tom Modrak (under Marv and Russ) did a fairly decent job of drafting talent (6/32 for 19%). Though several of his picks made the Pro Bowls on other teams. 2. Tom Donahoe also did a decent job of drafting ands had several strong drafts. 3. Bill Polian did miss quite a bit (as stated on Hits and Misses) but is only 1 of 2 GM's on the list to draft All-Pro talent (Henry Jones and Thurman). Buddy Nix was the other (Marcell Dareus) 4. John Butler made selections that developed into good players but only a handful were named to the Pro-Bowl 5. Doug Whaley and Buddy Nix were not very good in the draft. Buddy's only two Pro Bowl players were Gilmore and Dareus, whereas Sammy Watkins or Ron Darby were probably the closest he every got to drafting a Pro Bowl player. Of course, his last draft in 2016 (sorry not counting 2017 as "his" draft) was only a few years ago, so we'll have to wait a few more seasons. The question now is how will Brandon Beane rank on this list. I am hoping to see some more Pro Bowl players from his tenure as GM in the future. Let's hope het get the chance to take over 100 swings like Belichick or Ozzie, because that will mean he's doing something right! Let's hear some of your takeaways! Probably changed the rules so it would help fit what you wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 1 hour ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said: This like saying if I work at Waffle House for 50 years I had a better career than working 10 years as a brain surgeon. I guess it would depend on why you only lasted 10 years as a brain surgeon. But I'm sure you understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 21, 2018 Author Share Posted April 21, 2018 16 hours ago, Watkins101 said: You should do another cross reference on the rounds, that way we see how good they were per first round Ok you wanted it. You got it. Here are the Bills GM's percentage of drafting Pro Bowl talent in Rounds 1-3 General Manager Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Picks Rate of Success Players Marv Levy 2006-2007 2 3 6 50% Poz, Lynch, Whitner Bill Polian 1986-1991 5 6 17 35.3% Thomas, Wolford, Odomes, Conlan, Jones Tom Donahue 2001-2005 4 5 17 29.4% Clements, Schobel, Henry, McGahee Russ Brandon 2008-2009 2 2 7 28.5% Wood, Byrd John Butler 1992-2000 9 5 27 18.5% Winfield, Cowart, Wiley, Moulds,Brown Buddy Nix 2010-2013 4 2 13 15.3% Gilmore, Dareus Doug Whaley 2014-2016 3 0 20 0.0% - #1 on the list again. Damn I was good in the draft. Never should have re-tired Takeaways: Marv Levy had a 50% accuracy rate of drafting Pro Bowl players, but none of the 3 he drafted made the Pro Bowl with the Bills Polian fared well drafting in rounds 1-3, the additional picks in the longer drafts seemed to hurt his overall percentage. Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley struggled with hitting on high draft picks. The overall success rate of a pick in Rounds 1-3 is closer to a 25% chance of developing into a Pro Bowl talent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: Ruben Brown made it, they say, on the strength of his barbecue... I guess we should be grateful that Brian Moorman, Mike Schneck and Terrence McGee made the Pro Bowl for Special Teams? Still don't know what the point of these numbers are. So glad we drafted a higher number of "Pro Bowlers" than Belichick... 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Ok you wanted it. You got it. Here are the Bills GM's percentage of drafting Pro Bowl talent in Rounds 1-3 General Manager Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Picks Rate of Success Players Marv Levy 2006-2007 2 3 6 50% Poz, Lynch, Whitner Bill Polian 1986-1991 5 6 17 35.3% Thomas, Wolford, Odomes, Conlan, Jones Tom Donahue 2001-2005 4 5 17 29.4% Clements, Schobel, Henry, McGahee Russ Brandon 2008-2009 2 2 7 28.5% Wood, Byrd John Butler 1992-2000 9 5 27 18.5% Winfield, Cowart, Wiley, Moulds,Brown Buddy Nix 2010-2013 4 2 13 15.3% Gilmore, Dareus Doug Whaley 2014-2016 3 0 20 0.0% - #1 on the list again. Damn I was good in the draft. Never should have re-tired Takeaways: Marv Levy had a 50% accuracy rate of drafting Pro Bowl players, but none of the 3 he drafted made the Pro Bowl with the Bills Polian fared well drafting in rounds 1-3, the additional picks in the longer drafts seemed to hurt his overall percentage. Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley struggled with hitting on high draft picks. The overall success rate of a pick in Rounds 1-3 is closer to a 25% chance of developing into a Pro Bowl talent Poz and Whitner? LOL... LMFAO...This is funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 The All pro team is the better example of the actual best players in the game. The Pro bowl is usually a hand full of the best players of each conference and a collection of what’s left from the next few waves of people that accept the chance to play. After the Super Bowl teams and 20 or so guys that are “hurt,” it’s not a very big deal. The Pro Bowl is also usually a situation where you get in on your name over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 21, 2018 Author Share Posted April 21, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: The All pro team is the better example of the actual best players in the game. The Pro bowl is usually a hand full of the best players of each conference and a collection of what’s left from the next few waves of people that accept the chance to play. After the Super Bowl teams and 20 or so guys that are “hurt,” it’s not a very big deal. The Pro Bowl is also usually a situation where you get in on your name over and over. I can answer that one easy.... The Bills have had 2 Pro Players in 3 Decades. 5 hours ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said: I guess we should be grateful that Brian Moorman, Mike Schneck and Terrence McGee made the Pro Bowl for Special Teams? Still don't know what the point of these numbers are. So glad we drafted a higher number of "Pro Bowlers" than Belichick... Poz and Whitner? LOL... LMFAO...This is funny stuff. The only player relevant to this discussion is Terrance McGee and like most Pro Bowl players, he deserved a spot that season. Edited April 21, 2018 by BuffaloRush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: I can answer that one easy.... The Bills have had 2 Pro Players in 3 Decades. The only player relevant to this discussion is Terrance McGee and like most Pro Bowl players, he deserved a spot that season. LOL. I think it's safe to say that not many agree with you. More agree with me. I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 DO pro bowl players equal Super Bowl wins ? I know a lot of players that go to the SB turn down the chance to go to the PB but i wonder how many pro bowlers are voted to the PB from SB teams ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 21, 2018 Author Share Posted April 21, 2018 50 minutes ago, T master said: DO pro bowl players equal Super Bowl wins ? I know a lot of players that go to the SB turn down the chance to go to the PB but i wonder how many pro bowlers are voted to the PB from SB teams ?? Yeah but just because you turn down the Pro Bowl doesn’t mean you lose the designation. As far as your point, name recognition does certainly help, but as you’ll see from this year’s Pro Bowl most of the players on the list deserved the honor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 On 4/19/2018 at 9:50 PM, BuffaloRush said: Let's see who's right.... Sooo...Who's right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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