Which Bills GM's Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent?

[QuoteTheRaven83]

19 minutes ago, ALF said:

Thanks for your research , interesting. HOF players are not a popularity contest, they are the real deal.

 

How a team plays together like the SB years Bills with good coaching is very important. A good QB makes others look better.

 

Pro Bowlers and HOF players are 2 different categories. You do know this right?

Edited April 20, 2018 by QuoteTheRaven83

[ALF]

Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

Pro Bowlers and HOF players are 2 different categories. You do know this right?

 

Of course

[QuoteTheRaven83]

Just now, ALF said:

 

Of course

 

So why are you even talking about HOF players? This statistic doesn't even mention HOF players that were drafted. This is just Pro Bowlers that were drafted. I don't even know what you're talking about.

5 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

Let's see who's right....

 

Do you even have one person in this thread that agreed with you? LOL

[ALF]

1 minute ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

So why are you even talking about HOF players? This statistic doesn't even mention HOF players that were drafted. This is just Pro Bowlers that were drafted. I don't even know what you're talking about.

 

 

Players only make the HOF 5 years or longer after retirement. GM's who draft them not at the top of the 1st rd know their stuff or are very lucky.

 

Just pointing out a category more important then pro bowl players. 

[QuoteTheRaven83]

Just now, ALF said:

 

Players only make the HOF 5 years or longer after retirement. GM's who draft them not at the top of the 1st rd know their stuff or are very lucky.

 

Just pointing out a category more important then pro bowl players. 

 

Did you fail comprehension when you were younger? LOL.

 

The percentages that are mentioned  talk about PRO BOWLERS that were drafted. NOT Hall of Famers. Why is this so difficult for you to understand. Not every Pro Bowler makes the Hall of Fame. Do you know this? LOL

[BuffaloRush]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

I didn't say that even a little, Jesus. 

 

I think that over the course of a GM's history, in regards to the proposed, it would average out over picks, trades, and FA. 

 

In regards to EJ specifically. Again I didn't say that. Ugh. Should we have gone with a different position in hindsight, absolutely. My point is, as of 2018, EJ is probably either the best or second best QB in the class currently. The team traded down, got an extra pick, and got one of the best QB's/most important positions in football, that the draft had to offer. EJ was not good, but if any FO does that regularly, they will win more than they lose. You are taking what I said way too far. 

 

It is trash like this that makes your threads the worst. I tried to engage reasonably with this one too, and ask what the data meant, and that was your response. FML

 

Trash thread?  You’re logic certainly far from flawed.  Anyone who argues that drafting a failed QB that was a 3rd round projection in the 1st round was a success because the team picked up an additional first is out of their mind.

3 hours ago, MJS said:

The pro bowl certainly is a popularity contest.

 

Which players are popular? Oh right, the most talented ones. The ones who put up the numbers. The ones who have good seasons and people follow because they are impressed with them.

 

Do they get it wrong sometimes? Sure. But MOST of the time the guys who make the pro bowl (not alternates) had great seasons and deserve to be there.

 

This was my point exactly.  More times

than not the majority of players named to the Pro Bowl deserve the designation.  That’s why it’s not a joke like some in this thread have stated.  

 

Alternates really shouldn't count IMO. 

[Gugny]

6 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

That's easy to say (and so cliche at this point) but it's as good a barometer as any.  If a guy's good, he's gonna find a way to a Pro Bowl.

It's been so long, I can't even remember if you were pro or anti-EJ that summer of 2015 when a dozen or so of us spent way too much time on here arguing about the guy.  I think you were with me on the anti-EJ train but then we became opponents as I was pro-Taylor and you were anti-Taylor.  Do I have that right?

 

I can't tell if you're being serious, or not, but I'll bite.  I was very pro-EJ until his last season as a Bill.  So, technically, we've always been "opponents," but it's never gotten nasty.  

[Watkins101]

9 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

The 2017 NFL Draft is one week away and it's a huge one for us Bills fans.  If you listen to many of the draft pundits evaluating talent, many times you will hear about draft picks becoming "Pro Bowl talent."  Well I researched which Bills GM's were the most successful at drafting Pro Bowl talent and how they compare to GM's from around the league as well. 

 

Unlike Hits and Misses, I did not discriminate between whether a player made the Pro Bowl on the Bills or with another team.  I also removed any subjectivity about the selection.  I also added the number of drafts that the GM's took part in.  You'll see that drafting Pro Bowl is a lot like a baseball players batting average.  It's much easier to hit .500 with 10 at bats, than it is with 100 etc.   What you find below may surprise you.  The names that you associate failure and success with in terms of drafting, may just surprise you. 

 

Of course, drafting Pro Bowl players is not the only means of success for a GM or a franchise.  But again, what someone defines as a "good" or "bad" pick is very subjective.  It is very hard to disagree that a player that was selected and made the Pro Bowl was a "bad" pick.

 

Anyway here's the Bills list:

 

General Manager	Years as GM	# of Drafts	# of Pro Bowl Players Drafted	Total Draft Picks	Rate of Success
Marv Levy	2006-2007	2	4	16	25%
Tom Donahue	2001-2005	6	5	36	13.9%
Russ Brandon	2008-2009	2	2	18	11.1%
Bill Polian	1986-1991	6	6	72	8.3%
John Butler	1992-2000	9	5	81	6.2%
Buddy Nix	2010-2013	4	2	35	5.7%
Doug Whaley	2014-2016	3	0	20	0.0%

 

Where else would you rather be, than #1 on this list!?!?!?!

 

 

Now let's see how these numbers compare to the top GM's in the league:

General Manager	Team	Years as GM	# of Drafts	# of Pro Bowl Players Drafted	Total Draft Picks	Rate of Success
Bill Belichick	New England	2000-2017	18	17	150	11.3%
Ozzie Newsome	Baltimore	2002-2017	16	15	137	10.9%
Thomas Dimitroff	Atlanta	2008-2017	10	7	74	9.5%
Kevin Colbert	Pittsburgh	2010-2017	8	6	67	8.9%
Howie Roseman	Philadelphia	2010-2014, 2016	6	5	56	8.9%
David Caldwell	Jacksonville	2013-2017	5	3	39	7.7%

 

 

So what are some of the overall takeaways here:

 

1. it's really hard to consistently draft Pro Bowl players in the draft.

2. The draft is a crapshoot.  You are going to miss quite often, so like baseball it's best to get as many swings as possible.

3. The really good General Managers are usually only to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 10 picks.

4. The really bad GM's are only able to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 25 picks (or worse)

5. Despite all of the misses from Bill Belichick, he has done a relatively good job of selecting talent over the past two decades.  Ditto for Ozzie Newsome.  

 

Now the takeaways for the Bills GM's:

1. Surprisingly Tom Modrak (under Marv and Russ) did a fairly decent job of drafting talent (6/32 for 19%).  Though several of his picks made the Pro Bowls on other teams.

2. Tom Donahoe also did a decent job of drafting ands had several strong drafts.

3. Bill Polian did miss quite a bit (as stated on Hits and Misses) but is only 1 of 2 GM's on the list to draft All-Pro talent (Henry Jones and Thurman).  Buddy Nix was the other (Marcell Dareus)

4. John Butler made selections that developed into good players but only a handful were named to the Pro-Bowl

5. Doug Whaley and Buddy Nix were not very good in the draft.  Buddy's only two Pro Bowl players were Gilmore and Dareus, whereas Sammy Watkins or Ron Darby were probably the closest he every got to drafting a Pro Bowl player.  Of course, his last draft in 2016 (sorry not counting 2017 as "his" draft) was only a few years ago, so we'll have to wait a few more seasons.  

 

The question now is how will Brandon Beane rank on this list.  I am hoping to see some more Pro Bowl players from his tenure as GM in the future.  Let's hope het get the chance to take over 100 swings like Belichick or Ozzie, because that will mean he's doing something right!

 

Let's hear some of your takeaways!

 

You should do another cross reference on the rounds, that way we see how good they were per first round

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I wanted Whaley fired after his 1st year as GM. Doug Failey.

[BuffaloRush]

52 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

You should do another cross reference on the rounds, that way we see how good they were per first round

 

Well what exactly do you want to know?  The percentage of drafting Pro Bowl players in Round 1?  Or Rounds 1-3?  I can definitely do this

47 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I wanted Whaley fired after his 1st year as GM. Doug Failey.

 

Yet many will defend his selections as good draft picks because of “longetivity.”  LOL

[Mango]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Trash thread?  You’re logic certainly far from flawed.  Anyone who argues that drafting a failed QB that was a 3rd round projection in the 1st round was a success because the team picked up an additional first is out of their mind.

 

 

THAT IS NOT WHAT I AM SAYING!!!!!! ? I even said, “in hindsight we should have selected differently there.”

 

I am saying I’m not gonna harp on the FO for the move itself, player aside, but position specific. If The Bills traded down, and selected the second best QB in the draft every year, we would be in a great spot as a franchise. 

 

None of that makes EJ a good QB. 

 

And yes, I tried to engage in this thread civilly, and take a deeper dive into the point you were trying to make. You just keep saying EJ EJ EJ. I don’t get it. trash thread.

[Watkins101]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Well what exactly do you want to know?  The percentage of drafting Pro Bowl players in Round 1?  Or Rounds 1-3?  I can definitely do this

 

Yet many will defend his selections as good draft picks because of “longetivity.”  LOL

I think at least take out rounds 5+, as few players from there pan out. I think rounds 1-3 would give us a good idea.

[row_33]

12 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Many would disagree with you

 

you are heretofor sentenced to watch every Pro Bowl for the rest of your life

 

[metzelaars_lives]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

I can't tell if you're being serious, or not, but I'll bite.  I was very pro-EJ until his last season as a Bill.  So, technically, we've always been "opponents," but it's never gotten nasty.  

I'm being 1000% serious.  Who was the regular poster who was with me on the anti-EJ train and then split with me on Tyrod?  I took a long time off so I'm having trouble recalling.  He used to post on here all the time.

[Gugny]

9 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

I'm being 1000% serious.  Who was the regular poster who was with me on the anti-EJ train and then split with me on Tyrod?  I took a long time off so I'm having trouble recalling.  He used to post on here all the time.

 

It may have been Ryan L Billz.  He made me look like a Tyrod-lover.

[BuffaloRush]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

THAT IS NOT WHAT I AM SAYING!!!!!! ? I even said, “in hindsight we should have selected differently there.”

 

I am saying I’m not gonna harp on the FO for the move itself, player aside, but position specific. If The Bills traded down, and selected the second best QB in the draft every year, we would be in a great spot as a franchise. 

 

None of that makes EJ a good QB. 

 

And yes, I tried to engage in this thread civilly, and take a deeper dive into the point you were trying to make. You just keep saying EJ EJ EJ. I don’t get it. trash thread.

 

I understand what you are saying but it’s all relative.  2013 was regarded as a very poor draft class.  The 2nd best QB in 2013 is nowhere near as valueable as the 2nd best QB.  

 

Also what team team do you know of that traded down to get their franchise QB?  It’s usually the other way and that probably speaks to the success of the EJ selection 

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

you are heretofor sentenced to watch every Pro Bowl for the rest of your life

 

 

Thats a stiff sentence is there ever was one.  

 

I agree that that the actual Pro Bowl game is a joke but it’s still an honor to be named, and the majority (again the majority...not al) of players get in because they are the top at their position in the conference.

3 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

I think at least take out rounds 5+, as few players from there pan out. I think rounds 1-3 would give us a good idea.

 

I will do that Rounds 1-3 coming very soon

[row_33]

 

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

you are heretofor sentenced to watch every Pro Bowl for the rest of your life

 

 

Thats a stiff sentence is there ever was one.  

 

 

 

 

Like seriously how much would they have to pay me to sit there and watch a Pro Bowl, and then have to fake interest from pre-game show to post game analysis?

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On the bright side at least this one has some semblance of objectivity.  

 

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

On the bright side at least this one has some semblance of objectivity.  

 

 

It’s 100% objective and quantifiable.  Those haters just are arguing because I’m the one who started the thread

[QCity]

17 hours ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest.

 

 

 

The Pro Bowl pool has become quite diluted in recent years. There are players who deliberately pass on going just to create another possibility that a friend (who's in a contract year) might get that selection.