Football Outsiders Draft Guide

[BuffaloHokie13]

ESPN Insider published Football Outsiders' Draft Guide for each team. I'll post the Bills needs and a small bit of the commentary for each.

 

Biggest Need: QB

Quote

AJ McCarron is a downgrade from Tyrod Taylor, and Nathan Peterman isn't assured a roster spot at this point. Either via a trade-up or via a selection that bucks draft consensus, look for the Bills to leave the first two rounds with someone they consider their signal-caller of the future. 

 

Quiet Need: LB

Quote

 Lorenzo Alexander turns 35 in May, and the only other player on the depth chart at linebacker who is a known quantity at this point is journeyman Ramon Humber. It's very possible that, with no talent injection, the players who start alongside Alexander are a late-round pick and an undrafted free agent; not exactly the most reliable combo. 

 

Not a Need: RB

Quote

Between LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, Travaris Cadet and Patrick DiMarco, the Bills have a steady collection of backs with a versatile combination of skill sets. In an ideal situation, these backs will all be utilized ... as spectators on every McCoy carry.

 

 

Not exactly news on this board, but it's nice to see a national piece that makes some sense I suppose.

[KDIGGZ]

i think RB is a need.  Shady is on the wrong side of 30 and is expensive.  i think we go RB at some point in this draft.  or maybe they push it out 1 more year if they have to trade away their picks.

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by kdiggz

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I thought Alexander was 47 years old...

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

i think RB is a need.  Shady is on the wrong side of 30 and is expensive.  i think we go RB at some point in this draft.  or maybe they push it out 1 more year if they have to trade away their picks.

 

It's a deep class and I'm sure they'll grab one. I just don't think it's a priority.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

24 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I thought Alexander was 47 years old...

He's just getting good dude!

[Mojo44]

Lost all credibility for me once they said AJ is a downgrade from Taylor. Give me a break!

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, kdiggz said:

i think RB is a need.  Shady is on the wrong side of 30 and is expensive.  i think we go RB at some point in this draft.  or maybe they push it out 1 more year if they have to trade away their picks.

 

I would like a RB because I love the RBs in this class, but for 2018, RB is our most solid position imo.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mojo44 said:

Lost all credibility for me once they said AJ is a downgrade from Taylor. Give me a break!

 

OK, where would you like your break?

 

AJ is arguably likely to be a downgrade from Taylor in several regards.  Even given a strong line and great WRs/TE, he was not a prolific passer in his NFL starts.

He's likely better at reading a D, making progressions, and figuring out who the open man should be, but it didn't translate into superior passing yardage when he saw playing time.  Of course, AJ doesn't pose a significant threat to move the chains with his legs, and he hasn't proven his durability through a long NFL season.

 

Don't think so?  Argue your point.

 

I'm not debating the Bills decision to move on from Taylor - he's not a fit for what they want to do, clearly.

 

But to think AJ isn't a downgrade to a guy who has actually proven he can stand the heat for 3 seasons and win more than half his games, isn't realistic at this point.  The best one can hope for is "not proven".

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, where would you like your break?

 

AJ is arguably likely to be a downgrade from Taylor in several regards.  Even given a strong line and great WRs/TE, he was not a prolific passer in his NFL starts.

He's likely better at reading a D, making progressions, and figuring out who the open man should be, but it didn't translate into superior passing yardage when he saw playing time.  Of course, AJ doesn't pose a significant threat to move the chains with his legs, and he hasn't proven his durability through a long NFL season.

 

Don't think so?  Argue your point.

 

I'm not debating the Bills decision to move on from Taylor - he's not a fit for what they want to do, clearly.

 

But to think AJ isn't a downgrade to a guy who has actually proven he can stand the heat for 3 seasons and win more than half his games, isn't realistic at this point.  The best one can hope for is "not proven".

AJ isn't a downgrade, he is an unknown.

 

In my opinion Tyrod is magic. People argued he was a rookie when he was entering his 6th season as a professional.

People argued that he was still learning, had had little time to develop,  and would soon turn the corner, for 2 /12 years as a starter. To me he is the Teflon Don of football.

 

AJ McCarron started just 3 games, in his second year in the league. He threw for 212 yards with one touchdown and one interception in his only playoff appearance (again in just his second year having had only 3 starts in his career)

 

Tyrod Taylor threw for 134 yards going 17 for 37, with no touchdowns and no interceptions after 7 years in the league and 43 starts.

 

So how come Tyrod is still developing even now with the Browns, and will show everyone so say some.

 

But McCaron is a done deal, finished product, "downgrade"?

 

Why does that make sense, to anyone??

 

I would rather have the chance, however slim it may be, that McCaroon will pan out to bring us to the next level, instead of the guy Taylor, who is as close to as sure thing not be that as a man can get.

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[Mojo44]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, where would you like your break?

 

AJ is arguably likely to be a downgrade from Taylor in several regards.  Even given a strong line and great WRs/TE, he was not a prolific passer in his NFL starts.

He's likely better at reading a D, making progressions, and figuring out who the open man should be, but it didn't translate into superior passing yardage when he saw playing time.  Of course, AJ doesn't pose a significant threat to move the chains with his legs, and he hasn't proven his durability through a long NFL season.

 

Don't think so?  Argue your point.

 

I'm not debating the Bills decision to move on from Taylor - he's not a fit for what they want to do, clearly.

 

But to think AJ isn't a downgrade to a guy who has actually proven he can stand the heat for 3 seasons and win more than half his games, isn't realistic at this point.  The best one can hope for is "not proven".

  Taylor could not win games. That’s all there is. This is the third time I’ve made this point in various threads. Remember the last five games of the season when the bills made that awesome push to the playoffs. Taylor could not lead this team to even one touchdown in the fourth quarter. In a nutshell that says it all! We know for an absolute fact that Taylor, as an NFL quarterback, was crap. AJ is an unknown who has flashed some good stuff. Ipso facto, you cannot say with any certainty that AJ is a downgrade. And given just how crappy Taylor was, it’s more likely than not that he is an upgrade. Get it?

[CuddyDark]

16 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

AJ isn't a downgrade, he is an unknown.

 

In my opinion Tyrod is magic. People argued he was a rookie when he was entering his 6th season as a professional.

People argued that he was still learning, had had little time to develop,  and would soon turn the corner, for 2 /12 years as a starter.

 

AJ McCarron started just 3 games, in his second year in the league. He threw for 212 yrads with one touchdown and one interception in his only playoff appearance (again in just his secoind year having had only 3 starts in his career)

 

Tyrod Taylor threw for 134 yards going 17 for 37, with no touchdowns and no interceptions after 7 years in the league and 43 starts.

 

So how come Tyrod is still developing even now with the Browns, and will sho weveryone so say some.

 

But McCaron is a done deal, finished product, "downgrade"?

 

Why does that make sense, to anyone??

 

Makes sense. Tyrod is/was a runner and most of his improvements have been and will continue to be as a passer. Tyrod has more to offer because he can be dynamic if passing doesn't workout. AJ is a passer and has not proven to be anything special at passing. If he never develops as a passer he's dead in the water. It was said during his draft that AJ had reached his maximum talent as a passer at Bama. AJ has no upside if passing doesn't make major improvements and he has no alternative to a weak passing game.

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

Makes sense. Tyrod is/was a runner and most of his improvements have been and will continue to be as a passer. Tyrod has more to offer because he can be dynamic if passing doesn't workout. AJ is a passer and has not proven to be anything special at passing. If he never develops as a passer he's dead in the water. It was said during his draft that AJ had reached his maximum talent as a passer at Bama. AJ has no upside if passing doesn't make major improvements and he has no alternative to a weak passing game.

yeah, no. Tyrod hit his ceiling long ago. that infamous scouting report upon his exodus from the college ranks was just as true that day as it is today.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

AJ isn't a downgrade, he is an unknown.

 

In my opinion Tyrod is magic. People argued he was a rookie when he was entering his 6th season as a professional.

People argued that he was still learning, had had little time to develop,  and would soon turn the corner, for 2 /12 years as a starter.

 

AJ McCarron started just 3 games, in his second year in the league. He threw for 212 yrads with one touchdown and one interception in his only playoff appearance (again in just his secoind year having had only 3 starts in his career)

 

Tyrod Taylor threw for 134 yards going 17 for 37, with no touchdowns and no interceptions after 7 years in the league and 43 starts.

 

So how come Tyrod is still developing even now with the Browns, and will sho weveryone so say some.

 

But McCaron is a done deal, finished product, "downgrade"?

 

Why does that make sense, to anyone??

 

 

Just a note here BadLands, that you're baling up a bunch of "Straw" I didn't argue - the "Tyrod still developing and will show everyone" "McCarron is a done deal, finished product" etc etc.  I understand, I think, why you want to bring these things up, but for good "posting etiquette" I think it would be appropriate to clarify that you understand they are not my arguments.

 

I can buy the argument AJ could have further developed in his last 3 seasons of no significant playing time.  It's a fair one. 

 

But he is far more of a "known" than Tyrod was, having started 3 RS games and a playoff game vs. Tyrod's 0 games started in his 4 years with BAL.  And I think it's fair to grade him on those, and I did.

 

In that grade, you need to look at the team around the two of them, including the OL and the WR.  Then you look at what was achieved with that team.

-How did the WR/TE both QB had compare?

-How did the OLs compare that year for the two teams?

-other factors?

 

The Bengals had a good OL in 2015.  They had great WR.  And yet AJ was not able to rack up much more than 2015/2016 Taylor in the way of passing yards with them.  He averaged 195 yards passing in 5 games (less if you take out the game he finished and just look at his starts).  He put up very Taylor-like passing numbers - and this was despite having the edge in both OL, receivers.  Taylor makes up for his passing deficiencies to some extent with his legs.  McCarron doesn't.

 

I understand the switch.  I think he is a more capable QB in the ways that Beane and McDermott want to see (from the pocket, as a passer), he has a better price/benefit ratio, and yes, he has that unknown - could be! factor going for him - maybe he will be better.  There also won't be the Trouble in the Locker Room Tipi factor if a rookie is started ahead of him and struggles.

 

But to look at his performance in the NFL and say a respected football analysis org "lost all credibility" (as the OP I'm responding to did) saying that he is a downgrade to Taylor, well, that's not realistic based on the data available.  McCarron's actual NFL performance to date has been like Taylor, without the legs, and that was WITH Green/Eifert/Sanu.  In terms of offensive productivity, that equals a downgrade.  That's how it is.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 minute ago, CuddyDark said:

Makes sense. Tyrod is/was a runner and most of his improvements have been and will continue to be as a passer. Tyrod has more to offer because he can be dynamic if passing doesn't workout. AJ is a passer and has not proven to be anything special at passing. If he never develops as a passer he's dead in the water. It was said during his draft that AJ had reached his maximum talent as a passer at Bama. AJ has no upside if passing doesn't make major improvements and he has no alternative to a weak passing game.

I think what Tyrod brings is the running as you say. But for me all that does is make the losing more entertaining.

As you point out, th elast good chance t see McCarron pass was when at Bama. There is no good way to know what he is like now and if he has got better in the last 4 years.

 

So McCarron to me is some chance, versus no chance. I thank having a chance is an upgrade.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think what Tyrod brings is the running as you say. But for me all that does is make the losing more entertaining.

As you point out, th elast good chance t see McCarron pass was when at Bama. There is no good way to know what he is like now and if he has got better in the last 4 years.

 

So McCarron to me is some chance, versus no chance. I thank having a chance is an upgrade.

 

Don't agree.  5 games from a 2nd year guy is a decent NFL sample.  Now could he have improved since then, Sure!  But that gets us  back to the "unknown" factor.

[BadLandsMeanie]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a note here BadLands, that you're baling up a bunch of "Straw" I didn't argue - the "Tyrod still developing and will show everyone" "McCarron is a done deal, finished product" etc etc.  I understand, I think, why you want to bring these things up, but for good "posting etiquette" I think it would be appropriate to clarify that you understand they are not my arguments.

 

I can buy the argument AJ could have further developed in his last 3 seasons of no significant playing time.  It's a fair one. 

 

But he is far more of a "known" than Tyrod was, having started 3 RS games and a playoff game vs. Tyrod's 0 games started in his 4 years with BAL.  And I think it's fair to grade him on those, and I did.

 

In that grade, you need to look at the team around the two of them, including the OL and the WR.  Then you look at what was achieved with that team.

-How did the WR/TE both QB had compare?

-How did the OLs compare that year for the two teams?

-other factors?

 

The Bengals had a good OL in 2015.  They had great WR.  And yet AJ was not able to rack up much more than 2015/2016 Taylor in the way of passing yards with them.  He averaged 195 yards passing in 5 games (less if you take out the game he finished and just look at his starts).  He put up very Taylor-like passing numbers - and this was despite having the edge in both OL, receivers.  Taylor makes up for his passing deficiencies to some extent with his legs.  McCarron doesn't.

 

I understand the switch.  I think he is a more capable QB in the ways that Beane and McDermott want to see (from the pocket, as a passer), he has a better price/benefit ratio, and yes, he has that unknown - could be! factor going for him - maybe he will be better.  There also won't be the Trouble in the Locker Room Tipi factor if a rookie is started ahead of him and struggles.

 

But to look at his performance in the NFL and say a respected football analysis org "lost all credibility" by saying that he is a downgrade to Taylor, well, that's not realistic based on the data available.  McCarron's actual NFL performance to date has been like Taylor, without the legs, and that was WITH Green/Eifert/Sanu.  That's how it is.

That quote isn't of me.

 

 

About your other points:

 

I prefer to think of my straw men as you call them, as summaries that capture the heart of the matter.

 

As for the football stats from his 3 games that you cite, you really have to include considering that those were his first 3 NFL games. Right? And what was he asked to do? Probably not a lot. They probably wanted to do anything but put the games on his shoulders.

 

Are you citing Tyrods stats as a 43 game starter against those of McCarron is his first 3 games? I don't know but  if you are, I won't go along with that.

 

I think you would need to compare McCarron against other guys in their first 3 games to make a useful comparison.

 

I personally would have to see the all 22 film of those games to have a firm idea how to interpret those stats.

 

I give you no argument about the O-line advantage Tyrod had the left half of an O-Line if you ask me.

 

And as it stands now McCarron will have 1/5 of a line.

 

So he is probably going to be crippled, and in that sense will be a downgrade.

 

But until he does prove to be lesser, I will give those jacked up loud mouth poopy headed braying jackasses the same respect as I give any pundit picking on my Bills based on flimsy evidence. McCarron is a Bill now.

 

And the same respected crowd convinced everybody our secondary was a tire fire last year didn't they? Ha! Suck an egg I say to them! 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[Shaw66]

Well, Hapless and Badlands and the others, I say you're all just arguing for the fun of it, because there isn't an answer.   

 

Hapless is right, that if you take his actual performance in league games, AJ is a downgrade.   But then even Hapless says that AJ is more capable than Tyrod in the ways that McBeane want.   Well, if he's more capable in the ways the coach and GM want, doesn't that make him an upgrade?   

 

And if you compare the one playoff game that each started, AJ way outperformed Taylor.   

 

Plus, AJ was stuck behind an entrenched starter.   In that position AJ had to outperform Dalton substantially before he was going to get the starting job.   In other words, AJ could be just as good as Dalton.  Over the past three years Dalton and Taylor are about a push.   I'd give Taylor the edge.   

 

Seems to me there just isn't enough information about AJ to say with any degree of certainty that AJ is a downgrade or not.   

[BadLandsMeanie]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, Hapless and Badlands and the others, I say you're all just arguing for the fun of it, because there isn't an answer.   

 

Hapless is right, that if you take his actual performance in league games, AJ is a downgrade.   But then even Hapless says that AJ is more capable than Tyrod in the ways that McBeane want.   Well, if he's more capable in the ways the coach and GM want, doesn't that make him an upgrade?   

 

And if you compare the one playoff game that each started, AJ way outperformed Taylor.   

 

Plus, AJ was stuck behind an entrenched starter.   In that position AJ had to outperform Dalton substantially before he was going to get the starting job.   In other words, AJ could be just as good as Dalton.  Over the past three years Dalton and Taylor are about a push.   I'd give Taylor the edge.   

 

Seems to me there just isn't enough information about AJ to say with any degree of certainty that AJ is a downgrade or not.   

I agree whole heartedly except to say the Hapless is clearly more wrong than I am.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I agree whole heartedly except to say the Hapless is clearly more wrong than I am.

Which brings to mind one of the most important questions in the history of western civilization, a question I heard one Saturday morning on Car Talk.   Here it is:

 

Does one person who doesn't know what he's talking about know more or less than two people who don't know what they're talking about?

[BadLandsMeanie]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Which brings to mind one of the most important questions in the history of western civilization, a question I heard one Saturday morning on Car Talk.   Here it is:

 

Does one person who doesn't know what he's talking about know more or less than two people who don't know what they're talking about?

I'm not comfortable with your premise.