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If we draft Josh Allen....


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 Please allow me to preface. I was once a firm Josh Allen hater. If you would have asked me in January what I thought of him, I would've told you he's my 7th best QB of this class, and I'd go bat #### crazy if we even thought of drafting him. To that point, I saw his stats, heard the negativity from so many pundits, and only had a little bit to base my own opinion on the matter. I simply went along with the rest and thought the way the rest of the community thought. 

 

Here and now, when the draft rumors have picked up, and so many mocks, so many draft analyists, have us connected our team to "loving" Josh Allen, I made it my mission to get to know what I may be missing, so I can firmly say that I have watched Allen throw every pass from the 2016 and 2017 season. I have come away with many different conclusions based upon my research, and thus am very open to the possibility of Allen being the next QB  of this beloved franchise. Truthfully, I still prefer the Bills to draft Rosen or Mayfield, but since I am not a professional scout, and am only  a really, really huge fan, I definitely think that I may be wrong about my rankings.  Below are some reasons that I would be excited if the Bills  did infact, draft Josh Allen.

 

(in no order)

1. Captain obvious here, but his rocket arm. Seriously, Allen may have the best arm ever!! He is smooth & explosive, and we often dismiss this as a negative b/c of so many failed prospects who also had the big arm. Its convienent, sometimes, to compare Allen to other guys with big arms, and then draw conclusions based upon past failures, but it certainly doesn't mean anything whatsoever. 

 

2. His improvement. 2016 was a very good year, but in  2017 many would say he took a very dramatic dip. Statistically speaking, he did, but in terms of Wyoming's system, huge lack of offensive playmakers along with a very bad offensive line, I'd say he did well to get that team win 8 games. Also, his Senior Bowl performance was fantastic!! He was accurate, showed very nice touch throws, made good decisions/progressions, and help his team on multiple scoring drives. It was a very good chance to see just a small sample of what Allen could do with actual NFL-caliber playmakers around him.

 

3. His amazing athleticism. For 6'5 and 240 pounds, he has good speed, terrific power, and can make plays with his feet. He almost looks identical to Wentz in college, but IMHO, he is a better athlete than Wentz was, and that's saying alot b/c Wentz was a darn good playmaker at North Dakota State. What really seperates Allen from past big arm guys like Russel and Boller, is Allen can leave a fractured pocket and if the play isn't there he can run for the first down, and keep the chains moving. He can also be used on RPO's or Read Option type plays around the goal line to punch it in ala Cam Newton. This is a very cool and dangerous part of his game.

 

4. Josh Allen is a very blue collar kid. Coaches love him, teammates love him, and this is a kid who'll work very, very hard, and be 100% committed to being the best QB & leader for any team that drafts him. He also is a very intelligent young man. I am pretty sure that he had the highest Wonderlic score of any QB tested this year. This may not mean much to some, but I think it adds to him knowing how to dissect & read defenses.

 

5. Our coaching  staff is a very good one, and I think they will do a GREAT job at molding & developing him into a very good passer. Think about this for a sec, could you have taken this roster from last year, and gotten that team to the playoffs?? I coach football, and I would have a hard time taking a roster that, quite honestly, was not that talented (especially offensively) to the playoffs. Not only is McDermott's staff smart, but they are well prepared and are all good teachers of the game, which is IMO, the most important job, in terms of player development. I am very confident that this coaching staff would do a very good job with Allen. 

 

I wrote this to try to shed some light on this kid, and hope that anyone who hasn't taken the time to watch Allen, that you'd give him a chance. I think you'll like alot of things that you see. He's a very raw kid, but IMO, he has just as much of a chance to be great as Rosen or Mayfield. I prefer those 2 guys, as you all do too, mainly b/c they are pro ready right now. Whereas Allen may take some time to develop. That is also good b/c if Allen does sit, then we get to see what McCarron can do, which maybe better than what many expect. 

 

Lastly, whatever and whomever we choose, I will support our team NO MATTER WHAT!! I will always love the Bills with all my heart, and have a great amount of faith in Beane and McDermott as this team moves forward. Go Bills!!

 

 

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12 minutes ago, elltrain22 said:

 

Lastly, whatever and whomever we choose, I will support our team NO MATTER WHAT!! I will always love the Bills with all my heart, and have a great amount of faith in Beane and McDermott as this team moves forward. Go Bills!!

 

 

 

Very well written and great job op.  

 

I know @thebandit27 thinks he can be special as well as @metzelaars_lives who are 2 people's opinions that I respect.  However the last blurb that I quoted is really where I fall.  I love the Bills, I will root like hell for whomever it is they decide to pin their Bill's careers on.  After last year they bought a lot of goodwill with me wrt personnel decisions.  I thought trading Sammy would be an absolute killer and the offense certainly wasn't as productive.  I thought trading Dareus was dumb and the run d did suffer.  However at the end of the year they were 9-7.  I won't argue with their results.   I don't pretend to tear apart film so thanks for putting in the work!

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1 hour ago, section122 said:

 

Very well written and great job op.  

 

I know @thebandit27 thinks he can be special as well as @metzelaars_lives who are 2 people's opinions that I respect.  However the last blurb that I quoted is really where I fall.  I love the Bills, I will root like hell for whomever it is they decide to pin their Bill's careers on.  After last year they bought a lot of goodwill with me wrt personnel decisions.  I thought trading Sammy would be an absolute killer and the offense certainly wasn't as productive.  I thought trading Dareus was dumb and the run d did suffer.  However at the end of the year they were 9-7.  I won't argue with their results.   I don't pretend to tear apart film so thanks for putting in the work!

 

I'll be very excited to see what Allen turns out to be in the NFL regardless of where he goes, and while he's not my 1st choice for the Bills, I'll be happy that they've identified a guy that they believe in and made their move.  Worst-case scenario: the guy doesn't work out and you try again.

 

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

If we draft Josh Allen I will accept that he has a high bust chance, but I won't be upset if they take the risk and he doesn't pan out.

You don't win titles being cautious.

 

Agreed.

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If the Bills draft Josh Allen, I will remain skeptical that he can become a good NFL QB, even as a Bill, until he proves he is one.  Sorry, IMO, NFL GMs and scouts put way too much emphasis on size, arm strength, and athleticism when they should be trying to figure out what's between QBs' ears.  I'm more impressed by a QB who demonstrates leadership, a will to win (see Brady, Thomas), good decision making, the ability to process what he sees quickly and accurately, and learns from his mistakes than a guy who can throw the ball 70 yards in the air.  For physical traits, I want to see a QB who can put the ball where he wants it to go, who has "touch" on the ball so that so that the receiver can catch it, and who has decent mechanics.   I'm not sold on Allen because I don't think that he possesses the traits I think are most important.

Edited by SoTier
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1 minute ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

Not to mention he scored almost double on the wonderlic test of what any of the other QB prospects scored.

 

That test is a load of crap.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick 48

Blaine Gabbert 42

Alex Smith 40

Eli Manning 39

Colin Kaepernick 37

Andrew luck 37

Manziel 32

Peyton 28

Ryan Leaf 27

Dan Marino 15

Donovan McNabb 14

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, SoTier said:

If the Bills draft Josh Allen, I will remain skeptical that he can become a good NFL QB, even as a Bill, until he proves he is one.  Sorry, IMO, NFL GMs and scouts put way too much emphasis on size, arm strength, and athleticism when they should be trying to figure out what's between QBs' ears.  I'm more impressed by a QB who demonstrates leadership, a will to win (see Brady, Thomas), good decision making, the ability to process what he sees quickly and accurately, and learns from his mistakes than a guy who can throw the ball 70 yards in the air.  For physical traits, I want to see a QB who can put the ball where he wants it to go, who has "touch" on the ball so that so that the receiver can catch it, and who has decent mechanics.   I'm not sold on Allen because I don't think that he possesses the traits I think are most important.

you couldn't be more correct...

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The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

Quote
2017 Game Log Passing Rushing QBR
DATE OPP RESULT   CMP ATT YDS CMP% LNG TD INT RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD RAW QBR ADJ QBR
9/2 @Iowa L 24-3 23 40 174 57.5 23 0 2 84.0 8 -10 -1.3 11 0 29.6 48.8
9/9 Gardner-Webb W 27-0 22 32 328 68.8 47 2 0 175.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 96.1 89.3
9/16 Oregon L 49-13 9 24 64 37.5 21 0 1 51.6 8 25 3.1 10 1 6.9 9.4
9/23 Hawai'i W 28-21 (OT) 9 19 92 47.4 25 1 0 105.4 6 17 2.8 22 0 81.9 58.1
9/30 Texas State W 45-10 14 24 219 58.3 40 3 0 176.2 8 12 1.5 9 0 88.0 75.1
10/14 @Utah State W 28-23 18 26 208 69.2 28 1 1 141.4 16 36 2.3 16 1 59.0 64.7
10/21 @Boise State L 24-14 12 27 131 44.4 30 1 2 82.6 18 62 3.4 19 1 62.5 69.6
10/28 New Mexico W 42-3 16 28 234 57.1 38 4 0 174.5 4 20 5.0 11 1 77.7 61.5
11/4 Colorado State W 16-13 10 20 138 50.0 21 0 0 108.0 12 60 5.0 18 0 40.9 31.6
11/11 @Air Force W 28-14 8 11 70 72.7 17 1 0 156.2 4 -15 -3.8 2 1 83.6 66.4
11/18 Fresno State L 13-7 No statistics available.
11/25 @San Jose State L 20-17 No statistics available.
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL
12/22 Central Michigan W 37-14 11 19 154 57.9 45 3 0 178.1 8 -3 -0.4 7 0 88.3  

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

Edited by maryland-bills-fan
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57 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

That test is a load of crap.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick 48

Blaine Gabbert 42

Alex Smith 40

Eli Manning 39

Colin Kaepernick 37

Andrew luck 37

Manziel 32

Peyton 28

Ryan Leaf 27

Dan Marino 15

Donovan McNabb 14

 

 

 

 

The test gives an indication of whether or not the player can learn an NFL playbook.  It's not much of an indicator of whether a particular player can read a defense or recognize a blitz.

 

In case you don't realize or forgot, Fitzpatrick graduated from Harvard (not attended, graduated) which might be rightly called "an anti-football factory".  Harvard and the other Ivy League schools don't give athletic scholarships but scholarships for financial need and for merit.  I believe that Harvard's endowment is so large that most of its students get free tuition, except, perhaps, for students who parents are multimillionaires, so competition to get in is fierce.  This probably wasn't quite the case when Fitzpatrick was admitted, but it has never been easy for non-legacy students to be admitted there. (Non-legacy = students who don't have a sibling, parent, grandparent who is an alumnus.)

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Allen did not play against top notch competition.  Here is the ranking of the schools he played against in 2017

Quote
2017 Game Log      
DATE OPP RESULT                                
9/2 @Iowa L 24-3         #18                            
9/9 Gardner-Webb W 27-0       #264        (the Bulldogs were 1-10)                          
9/16 Oregon L 49-13       #40                            
9/23 Hawai'i W 28-21 (OT)       #154                            
9/30 Texas State W 45-10      #183                            
10/14 @Utah State W 28-23   #89                            
10/21 @Boise State L 24-14 #33                            
10/28 New Mexico W 42-3 #114                            
11/4 Colorado State W 16-13 #84                            
11/11 @Air Force W 28-14 #93                            
11/18 Fresno State L 13-7 #53
11/25 @San Jose State L 20-17 #179
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL
12/22 Central Michigan W 37-14 #99                            

So  they played this many games against teams ranked, with this record

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

 

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition and would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

The best win was against #84 Colorado State.

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Hypothetically speaking, if the Bills do trade up and draft Josh Allen. In the next few years or the entirety of his career, what would be an acceptable completion rate? Seeing as a whole that is what we fixate on. 

 

I'm not a pro Josh Allen guy by any means. I'd take Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, and Lamar Jackson well before Allen.  

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5 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The test gives an indication of whether or not the player can learn an NFL playbook.  It's not much of an indicator of whether a particular player can read a defense or recognize a blitz.

 

In case you don't realize or forgot, Fitzpatrick graduated from Harvard (not attended, graduated) which might be rightly called "an anti-football factory".  Harvard and the other Ivy League schools don't give athletic scholarships but scholarships for financial need and for merit.  I believe that Harvard's endowment is so large that most of its students get free tuition, except, perhaps, for students who parents are multimillionaires, so competition to get in is fierce.  This probably wasn't quite the case when Fitzpatrick was admitted, but it has never been easy for non-legacy students to be admitted there. (Non-legacy = students who don't have a sibling, parent, grandparent who is an alumnus.)

 

I know exactly what the test is suppised to do.

Dan Marino and McNabb did quite well with playbooks last I checked.

Fitz is brilliant and I know he went to Harvard.

My point is that the test is wildly unreliable.

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I don't particularly want Josh Allen, but if the Bills draft him i'll root for him.  However, I see EJ Manual and JP Losman in him.  Manual was smart and willing, with a strong arm, but had accuracy and consistency issues.  Losman was also willing with a strong arm, but again accuracy and consistency issues.  Experts have said Allen would be best in a play-action heavy vertical passing game.  I don't think that's what we'll be running here.  I want Rosen, and I think he best fits what this offense is supposed to be, but if the staff believes in Allen I'll support it.

 

I'll only be upset if we trade up for Allen.  If you look at all the mocks, Allen either goes #1 to the Browns, or to the Bills in a trade up.  We're competing against ourselves for Allen.  I believe one (maybe two) of the big 4 QBs will fall past 5.  We don't need to go into the top 5 for Allen, because he'll either go #1 or will fall past 5.  If he falls past 5, I think he falls all the way to 12 unless Arizona trades up in front of us.  If they want Allen that's fine, just don't trade the house for him, there's no need.

Edited by essential
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28 minutes ago, essential said:

I don't particularly want Josh Allen, but if the Bills draft him i'll root for him.  However, I see EJ Manual and JP Losman in him.  Manual was smart and willing, with a strong arm, but had accuracy and consistency issues.  Losman was also willing with a strong arm, but again accuracy and consistency issues.  Experts have said Allen would be best in a play-action heavy vertical passing game.  I don't think that's what we'll be running here.  I want Rosen, and I think he best fits what this offense is supposed to be, but if the staff believes in Allen I'll support it.

 

I'll only be upset if we trade up for Allen.  If you look at all the mocks, Allen either goes #1 to the Browns, or to the Bills in a trade up.  We're competing against ourselves for Allen.  I believe one (maybe two) of the big 4 QBs will fall past 5.  We don't need to go into the top 5 for Allen, because he'll either go #1 or will fall past 5.  If he falls past 5, I think he falls all the way to 12 unless Arizona trades up in front of us.  If they want Allen that's fine, just don't trade the house for him, there's no need.

 

I bolded something which I fully agree with.

I don't think he's a great fit for our OC style.

I also don't think we should pass on talent because of an OC.

Catch 22.

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'll be very excited to see what Allen turns out to be in the NFL regardless of where he goes, and while he's not my 1st choice for the Bills, I'll be happy that they've identified a guy that they believe in and made their move.  Worst-case scenario: the guy doesn't work out and you try again.

 

 

Agreed.

I would take Darnold and Rosen and Mayfield over Allen. If we draft Allen I would still be happy. My continuing to change prediction is that the Bills will draft Rosen in a not significant deal. I would give up both firsts and select Rosen in a trade down and keep the rest of the picks. Rosen reminds me of Goff only more prepared to play against pro defenses. Both qbs have picturesque throwing motions. 

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