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My Bills Schedule Prediction


corta765

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So with the schedule expected to be released this week most likely Thursday I wanted to post my schedule that I think the Bills are playing. I research the schedule for fun every year comparing to previous years, trends, history, etc... So before you read my schedule (and probably accurately criticize it haha) here are a few things to keep in mind:

 

-The Bills have to finish the regular season against a divisional foe. The last time the Bills played NE in week 17 was 2014 with the Bills since then playing the Jets and Dolphins. Additionally the last time the Bills played NE at home that late in the season was week 16 2010 (I was there it was freezing snowy and the Bills lost 34-3 fun times) Despite the report of Bills Phins week 17 I think the Bills are at NE at week 17.

-The Bills typically play an AFC East foe in weeks 1 or 2 and with the Bills opening the season week 1 against MIA in 2010, @NYJ 2012, NE 2013, MIA 2014, NYJ 2016. Buffalo has only opened once against an NFC foe in the last decade with the famous Freddie OT run at CHI in 2014. To me Buffalo is due to open at MIA something they haven't done since 1989.

-Since the divisional schedule format has come into play when the Bills face NFC foes the NFL likes to schedule them all within a 5-6 week window.. except for the NFC North (no clue why). In 2014 Buffalo open week 1 in CHI, went to Detroit week 5, hosted Minnesota week 7, and hosted Green Bay week 15. In 2010 the Bills were at Green Bay week 2,  home against Chicago week 9, home against Detroit week 10, and at Minnesota week 13. By comparison last season the Bills completed their NFC schedule between weeks 2 and 10 with the Panthers, Falcons, & Bucs all within a 6 week stretch. Expect Buffalo to see the NFC over the course of the season.

-The Bills typically like a home schedule that is front loaded and limits December games due to ticket sales being harder late in the season due to weather.

-The NFL rarely allows teams to open at home back to back. If you host at home in 2015 you are on the road typically in 2016. The Bills hosted the Jets last year so I would expect them to open away. The positive in this is if you can get a win on the road week 1 the NFL typically gives you two straight home games after. 2016 BUF opened in BAL but then hosted NYJ and ARZ, 2014 open in CHI host MIA then SD, 2012 at NYJ, KC, at CLE, NE, but 2011 @KC home OAK home NE. With the Toronto series over the Bills generally have gotten a front loaded schedule like this.

-Finally night games. Any team that has made the playoffs over the last bunch of years has been guaranteed two night games (typically three) and hosted at least one night game. With the Bills likely to get a high touted rookie QB plus breaking the drought I would expect some decent attention with at least a MNF to go with the TNF game if not two. The NFL also weirdly put a lot of teams night games back to back last year which is how you got the Dolphins multiple weeks in a row.

 

2018 Bills Schedule per Craig:

  image.thumb.png.2d9ab6c7d5954b7940fc56005dc81b04.png

 

So the Bills open the season away and finish away something they did recently in 2016 and 2014. I know people will be stunned that I have the Bills on SNF but I think the storylines are built all over. Frank Reich faces his former team as a coach, Bills have new rookie QB, Luck is back, Bills have broke the drought etc... IND is a team that gets a lot of SNF games and I think we could end up there. The Jags at home is a softball prediction because early in the season it would be an intriguing MNF game that would get ratings so they could use better games later on. The Bills typically play on Thursday night somewhere between weeks 7-12 and we have only had one home game since 2012. It has been shown that home teams have a distinct advantage playing TNF at home and I believe the Bills have pressured the NFL for one of those also.

 

The rest of the schedule I guesstimated off previous matchups and the NFL likes to swap non-divisional teams around each time they play so if you played early in the season typically the next matchup is mid to later. Going off my prediction of a front loaded schedule I do think the Bills get 5 home games before November which they want. There is always a tough portion of the schedule and the three away games in four weeks after the bye fits the bill.

Edited by corta765
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4 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

Well then - a wee bit o time went into this thought......first - MAYBE a monday nite game but NOT against the Jags, def a thursday nite game and agrre with @Bangarang I too would be shocked at a Sundee nite game.

 

I understand and its def a leap for SNF. I have heard rumors of MNF hosting Chicago which would be fun I just think Jags Bills early on would have a ton of storylines from each side..

Edited by corta765
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1 minute ago, Will-GM-for-food said:

TNF game not against the Jets? That would be wonderful

 

Agreed although with both teams selecting two of the big four QBs I could see the Jets staying... again

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