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Project QB's who DID reach potential


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On 4/17/2018 at 1:55 AM, Zerovotlz said:

Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project".  It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL?  

 

Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do.  

 

Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us)

 

On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready.  

 

Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)

Actually, it is believed by some at least that John Elway is still high on Paxton Lynch.  Case Keenum was signed because they realize he's still not ready, but they apparently still believe he could still develop.  Sorry, no link.  It was a tidbit in a mock draft I read recently, but I can't recall which one.  Take it for what it's worth.

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On 4/17/2018 at 8:14 AM, matter2003 said:

 

Uh...Tom Brady? 6th round draft pick...only picked over Tim Rattay allegedly because he was taller...

Pretty much any QB who wasnt drafted in the first round that succeeds can be viewed as a project QB who made it...

 

 

OK, you think of or define "project QB" a little differently than I do.

 

I would call a QB undrafted or drafted on Day 3 a "developmental prospect".  You don't expect much out of him, and if he develops into a competent backup you're good.

If he develops into a starter, you've won the frickin' lottery.

 

Tom Brady was a winning lottery ticket.  So was Romo.

 

To me a "project QB" is a guy with known developmental needs, that you draft in the 1st round or high 2nd round when you lack a starting QB and have expectations that this guy will be The Man for you.  Others are right, Mahomes is the current developmental test case for this. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, you think of or define "project QB" a little differently than I do.

 

I would call a QB undrafted or drafted on Day 3 a "developmental prospect".  You don't expect much out of him, and if he develops into a competent backup you're good.

If he develops into a starter, you've won the frickin' lottery.

 

Tom Brady was a winning lottery ticket.  So was Romo.

 

To me a "project QB" is a guy with known developmental needs, that you draft in the 1st round or high 2nd round when you lack a starting QB and have expectations that this guy will be The Man for you.  Others are right, Mahomes is the current developmental test case for this. 

 

 

Agreed.

Warren moon, Romo, Warner were all lottery tickets.

I think a project would be somebody taken with the expectation to develop him into a reliable starter versus a guy taken in the late rounds who you don't expect much of.

 

Developmental QBs:

Rodgers

Carr

Dalton

Wilson

Mahomes

Jimmy G

 

Project /unexpected lottery:

Moon

Romo

Brady

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Agreed.

Warren moon, Romo, Warner were all lottery tickets.

I think a project would be somebody taken with the expectation to develop him into a reliable starter versus a guy taken in the late rounds who you don't expect much of.

 

Developmental QBs:

Rodgers

Carr

Dalton

Wilson

Mahomes

Jimmy G

 

Project /unexpected lottery:

Moon

Romo

Brady

 

 

 

I guess, to my point, that defining the terms is key here: while I agree with your classification, I flip-flop the terms "project QB" and "developmental/unexpected lottery ticket"

Could just be me though.

 

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I guess, to my point, that defining the terms is key here: while I agree with your classification, I flip-flop the terms "project QB" and "developmental/unexpected lottery ticket"

Could just be me though.

 

 

Hmmm...

 

So for you project expects to be "the guy with some work"

Developmental is basically a "we need a backup, but if we are lucky, he will start" ?

 

I guess I could view the word "project" as an implication of a "lot of work, but I expect it to turn into something useful" vs "developmental" as guess that it night grow up to be a big boy

 

I could agree even you flipping them :)

We do agree on the fact that there are two distinct classifications that should have different expectations

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4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I think that this question determines the results of the general question about "project QBs who DID reach potential".  If you define a "developmental QB" as a QB who was an UDFA or QBs drafted after the first round, then you'll get a lot of examples compared to limiting your definition to "first round QBs who were projects".

 

I think you would have to go back thirty or forty years to find any examples of first round "projects" who were actually successful because there simply aren't any in the last twenty.  Pretty much,  first round "projects" in the last 20 years have all failed.  I also don't think that going to a "small school" = "project".  Ben Roethlisberger was not a "project" despite going to Miami of Ohio (not the U!).  Neither was Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Wentz.  All of these QBs were impressive QBs even if they played in lower regarded Div 1 (or even Div II schools in Flacco's case) programs.  JP Losman wasn't nearly as impressive at Tulane as Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco or Wentz, and Josh Allen wasn't at Wyoming, either.

 

Thank you... hopefully a new messenger gets this across better :thumbsup:

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27 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Hmmm...

 

So for you project expects to be "the guy with some work"

Developmental is basically a "we need a backup, but if we are lucky, he will start" ?

 

I guess I could view the word "project" as an implication of a "lot of work, but I expect it to turn into something useful" vs "developmental" as guess that it night grow up to be a big boy

 

I could agree even you flipping them :)

We do agree on the fact that there are two distinct classifications that should have different expectations

 

Yep!  And I have no worries about flipping them either.

 

The point is that to have a meaningful discussion, we all need to be working off the same understanding of the same words :beer:

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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yep!  And I have no worries about flipping them either.

 

The point is that to have a meaningful discussion, we all need to be working off the same understanding of the same words :beer:

 

Def agree.

I think Mayfield and Rosen are expected to be ready and good very very soon if not ASAP.

I think Allen and darnold are guys who you expect to be "the man" and elite after 1-2 years of learning.

I think Rudolph is a guy you expect to be at best "league average starter" with some learning.

I think white, lauletta, Ferguson are "lottery tickets".

 

I think Jackson is with Rudolph as far as expectations, but has lottery ticket potential.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, you think of or define "project QB" a little differently than I do.

 

I would call a QB undrafted or drafted on Day 3 a "developmental prospect".  You don't expect much out of him, and if he develops into a competent backup you're good.

If he develops into a starter, you've won the frickin' lottery.

 

Tom Brady was a winning lottery ticket.  So was Romo.

 

To me a "project QB" is a guy with known developmental needs, that you draft in the 1st round or high 2nd round when you lack a starting QB and have expectations that this guy will be The Man for you.  Others are right, Mahomes is the current developmental test case for this. 

 

 

I think those are good definitions, although, like in almost everything, there are exceptions.   I can think of two recent QBs who are exceptions: Andy Dalton in 2011 and Russell Wilson in 2012.  Both were good enough to start from the get-go so they definitely weren't "projects" although their draft positions put them there.  For Dalton, you really have to wonder how the geniuses that are supposed to be NFL scouts and GMs could have picked Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder ahead of him.  Of course, Wilson's problem was that he's short, less than 6' and maybe not even 5'11", and NFL GMs are notoriously prejudiced against height-impaired QBs.

 

Aside from Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Dalton, Wilson, and Derek Carr (whom I forgot originally) there haven't been too many Day 2 "projects" who've made the grade, although they've been more successful, as a group, than the first round "projects".  Garoppolo might be one, but fewer than 10 starts is simply not enough games to judge him. I can't think of any others from rounds 2 or 3 who proved themselves decent starting QBs for multiple seasons.  All the other non-first round QBs to succeed in the NFL in the last 20 years were "winning lottery tickets" -- from Brady and Romo to Cousins and Keenum.

 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, you think of or define "project QB" a little differently than I do.

 

I would call a QB undrafted or drafted on Day 3 a "developmental prospect".  You don't expect much out of him, and if he develops into a competent backup you're good.

If he develops into a starter, you've won the frickin' lottery.

 

Tom Brady was a winning lottery ticket.  So was Romo.

 

To me a "project QB" is a guy with known developmental needs, that you draft in the 1st round or high 2nd round when you lack a starting QB and have expectations that this guy will be The Man for you.  Others are right, Mahomes is the current developmental test case for this. 

 

 

But aren't a lot of guys drafted in the first round even "Project QB's" that get drafted early becuse of elite physical tools?

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On ‎4‎/‎16‎/‎2018 at 11:33 PM, Doc Brown said:

Just looking at your avatar, Mahomes is the perfect test case for a project QB drafted in the top half of the 1st round.

 

How is Mahomes a project QB in remotely the same way Allen will be a project QB?

 

Mahomes was fantastic in college and was pretty sound in terms of accuracy and general fundamentals.

 

The only real question about Mahomes related to the college system he was coming from. 

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On ‎4‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 12:49 AM, Zerovotlz said:

 

Yeah....good point...the knock on Mahomes was that his mechanics needed work and he'd need some time to learn taking snaps under center...

 

 

So, yes, this is kind of hard to define.  I'd almost try and separate these into two categories...Project...and developmental.  When I hear project, it seems like that is always associated with some QB who posses physical talents/traits but lacks experience in a certain offense, or needs mechanics work, but who scouts have identified as someone with a very high ceiling if the project to fix those issues succeeds.   The developmental QB would be someone identified as a 3rd round pick or later, who lacks something physically usually, but who has exhibited proficient play in college and could become a servicable backup or starter if surrounded by a strong roster etc someday......so to that end....you could see Mahomes as a "project" although, I still tihnk of that term as something reserved for VERY RAW prospects that need alot of work...more than Mahomes....by this defintion..jsut about eveyrone in this 1st round is a project...and I don't really think that term fits Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield...like it fits Allen.....where as Peterman would be developmental....over time he could be serviceable starter but never expected to be a "star"  .....does that make sense?  If so....Allen would surely be a "project".   Paxton Lynch would be a project.  Bryce Petty would have been considered developmental.  

 

So, to me..project should apply to someone just like Allen or Lynch....physical traits are there, height, arm, etc, but have some serious work to fix major flaws....so that if fixed you have a star...that is a project.

 

Yeah, "project" and "developmental" are connotatively 2 very different things when it comes to QBs. 

 

 

Project QBs are those balls of clay supposedly ready to be molded into whatever you want.  Guys who are raw but so physically talented that he (supposedly) just needs to be shaped into whatever you want with time.

 

Developmental QBs are Day 3 guys in the draft.

 

 

When you asked the question in the OP, I assumed you were talking about the former, not the latter. 

 

10 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Mahommes was a project QB. I would put Stafford in that category as well. 

 

How was Stafford a project?

 

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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Transie and Thurman definitely have some homoerotic love hate thing where they shout angrily at each other all night and then wake up in the morning in bed together.  

 

Actually, he's never there when I wake up in the morning... I think he leaves in shame in the middle of the night, which would explain his overcompensation with his homophobic comments on here.

 

One of these mornings he'll surprise me by coming back with coffee in the morning, though.  I'm sure of it  :wub:

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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How is Mahomes a project QB in remotely the same way Allen will be a project QB?

 

Mahomes was fantastic in college and was pretty sound in terms of accuracy and general fundamentals.

 

The only real question about Mahomes related to the college system he was coming from. 

 

Mahomes had some of the sloppiest footwork coming out of college and the system he played in is also why he is very much a project. Both him and Allen need some serious fine tuning.

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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Transie and Thurman definitely have some homoerotic love hate thing where they shout angrily at each other all night and then wake up in the morning in bed together.  

 

 

They have been doing this dance fo years and as usually it comes down to communication and definition of what they are looking for:

 

we have seen what is the middle of the field arguments - where you break that down,

 

deep middle versus middle versus passes just across the line of scrimmage,

 

accuracy and and ability to run after catch,

 

now QBs that fit a certain profile.

 

 

Based on What Transplant originally asked - I think Thurm better understood the question than Transplant who actually asked it, but they will eventually agree to disagree an it will come up again.

 

Ahhhhh Good Times.

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On 4/17/2018 at 7:16 AM, K-9 said:

They’re all projects in some way, shape, or form. 

 

That's exactly what I was going to say.  Virtually every QB prospect is a "project" when they get drafted.  The jump from college to the pros is way too big.  Almost nobody enters the league as a finished product, ready to set the league on fire.

 

Very few NCAA programs are based primarily in NFL offensive concepts.  That's a major hurdle.

Very few players compete frequently with high-quality defenses.  That's major hurdle.

Very few quarterbacks have perfected their throwing mechanics at this point.  That's a major hurdle.

 

That's one of the reasons NFL scouts focus so heavily on physical traits.  It's a lot easier to measure.  You may not know how well a QB will adapt to an NFL scheme or mentally process an NFL defense.  But you can determine whether a guy has the arm strength to make all the required throws.  You can get out a yard stick and determine whether he's tall enough to see over an O-Line without problems. 

 

 

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