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A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Well, I was one of those who made that observation - that when I see Jackson or Darnold being inaccurate, I can see why in their base.  If I pause the vid, I can tell if the throw will be accurate or not.   So I feel like there are things you can drill and try to improve, especially since much of the time it's good.  But with Allen, I can't see that.  There are times when he's inaccurate and I can't see a thing wrong.  I think Buffalo716 said the same.

 

To be fair, someone else here (I think it was Bandit) felt that more of his inaccuracies than generally credited could be put on the WR not being where he expected, and someone else posted a piece by a QB coach - Jordan Palmer? who has been working with Allen and had some stuff to say about subtle mechanic things that he says Allen is improving.  I can't see subtleties in real time throwing motion myself, unless I have film I can watch in slowmo.

 

So I don't know.

 

I certainly feel that Bandit's theory could have some validity to it. I think that it's important that we don't speak in absolutes about prospects because none of us are 100% in the know about what kinds of coaching they get on a day-to-day basis, how seriously they take their education and split the time between the two. There's a lot at play with these guys at a really tender age. If a guy has the right work ethic, he stands a chance at improving as a dedicated professional.

 

I'm fully aware that I'm only really using my best guesses when it comes down to mechanics. I've never played the game so there's likely to be a few gaps in my knowledge that experience would help fill. As far as fixing it goes, I'm a believer that you can make tweaks to the throwing process. When it's someone with a really pronounced 'flaw' (like a Kevin Hogan), you're not going to completely overhaul that kind of muscle memory but you can make subtle changes. It's just about if they end up regressing to bad habits under pressure.

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10 hours ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

Honestly, I'd start with the being good part of the equation. Maybe he was good for a college QB but, as a pro prospect, he's mightily underwhelming.

 

When you reference the chances of a higher completion % if Hill catches a lot more passes, I know what you're getting at. However, his stats aren't what make him inaccurate in my mind. I've seen him absolutely fire swing passes at his backs with horrible placement/touch. His touch in general frightens me but moreso in the short/quick game. Someone else chimed in about this (I forgot who, feel free to jump in if you see this), that there's no rhyme or reason to his misfires. With Darnold/Lamar, I see misses mainly due to their base. With Allen, there's not one consistent element to his inconsistencies. Ergo, how do you fix what seems to be natural inaccuracy with no root cause?

 

Josh has his plus points, of course he does. In most physical regards, he's the prototype. Pound for pound, I'd consider him equal to Lamar as an athlete. Much like Patrick Mahomes, he's definitely got an 'it factor' about him. His highlight reel will leave you drooling because he's not devoid of talent. I don't want to fault yourself or anyone else that likes him for doing so. In another world where he's a plucky underdog that goes on Day 2/3, I'd probably understand taking the plunge on him.

 

I just can't shake this feeling that I've seen him very recently in a Bills jersey because he's nearly word-for-word how I felt about Cardale Jones.

 

I saw the bolded too and it features in my evaluation of him in my QB thread.  To me he absolutely suffers from "natural inaccuracy" where I can't see anything obviously technical that leads to throws that are off target.  I haven't had a chance yet to go back and look at the 'overstepping' theory that Jordan Palmer floated (and bandit has alluded to as well).  I might not get a chance to do that until the day of the draft.  

 

 

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We all know how most fans become Josh Allen (or any prospect) experts, they look at one or 2 lines of college stats and maybe, maybe watch a YouTube video, then fill up 6 months arguing for or against a draft prospect.

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6 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

 

Haha.  Not the case, buddy.  He was named the opening day starter and suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the first quarter of week 1.  At least have your facts straight.

 

I understand your haste in trying to take me to task for attacking your boy.

But re-read my post. All I was saying was that he was familiar with the system, buddy. Was he or wasn't he familiar with the offense in 2016? With all that, in a defense-challenged conference he managed to be part of barely a .500 team. Nearly every team he played against in his conference scored 35 points per game and despite having an 1900 yard rusher was the second best QB to an immortal QB out there. By your own admission he was surrounded with great talent.

 

I think those are pretty important facts, and they are straight, and they go to the point that Josh Allen had a reasonable but not statistically significant season in 2016. 

 

Try a little decaf. 

 

 

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I would stay away from Allen.   The knocks I hear on him are accuracy and decision making.   So sometimes, (I understand) he makes a bad throw that is hard to understand.  Sometimes, (I understand),  he just completely chooses to do something that is a WTF, is he doing event.   These are things that you can not teach away.   Will he be an EJ with brain-farts?......  I would like to see a player who was recognized as successful at every increasingly advanced level.  Allen  was not recruited by big schools, he played very well in JC for two years (against inferior competition)  and finally had success for two years at Wyoming (the 7th best conference in the country).      There is not a 4 year track record of college success against  top notch teams.  There is enough doubt to scare me away from  making a major investment of draft choices in him.

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Excellent post - thanks for your perspective. I appreciate that you acknowledge the uncertainty - both positive and negative - of Allen's potential success in the NFL.

 

Regarding this:

 

12 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.

 

Unfortunately we live in an era where it's trendy to dispel the opinions of experts. Flat-Earthers, Jenny McCarthy and her degree from "University of Google," and armchair GMs all share the same trait: they think that casual observation and a few hours on the Internet are more valuable than years of training and professional experience. Sad.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So I moved to Denver, from Buffalo, in 2002 and almost immediately adopted Wyoming as my college team (pretty much because I think they have the best uniforms in sports).  Anyway I have ramped up my fandom in recent years and, at this point, am a pretty diehard fan.  In short, I have watched every game Josh Allen has played as a college QB.  I have driven up to Laramie to see them/him play four times (three times in 2016 and once last year).  Incidentally, they were 3-1 in those games and he played good to great in all of them.  The win against Boise State (who was undefeated and ranked in the teens at the time) in 2016 was one of the best football games I've ever attended in my life (the greatest comeback against the Oilers obviously being #1).  

 

So this is NOT a Josh Allen excuse thread, nor am I a Josh Allen "fanboy."  And full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around.  

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

 

The 2016 Wyoming squad was loaded with offensive talent.  Literally five of their key offensive players were seniors who played with NFL teams into preseason last year and four are currently on NFL rosters.  That being said, it was Josh Allen's first year as a college QB.  With all of those guys as juniors the previous season, they went 2-10.  With Allen, they ended up 8-6 but were 8-3 before losing a meaningless game against New Mexico and then two nailbiters against San Diego State (MWC Championship game) and BYU (bowl game).  He was very good.  He went from an unheralded JuCo transfer to a guy being thrown around as the #1 pick in this draft halfway through his first college season.  Really ask yourself, Biff, if a guy could do that without being "good."  His completion percentage was lower than you might like but he had a propensity, especially in 2016, to throw the ball downfield A LOT.  For perspective, Brian Hill (now on the Bengals), played most every down, was second in the nation in rushing that year and is a very elusive back.  He had NINE RECEPTIONS ALL SEASON.  Ask yourself, if Hill caught 40 balls and Allen's completion percentage was 66% instead of 56% in 2016, would we even be having that conversation?  Even with his 56% completion percentage, he was named the 2nd team MWC QB (Brett Rypien, Mark's son, had better numbers, but few would argue Allen wasn't a more impactful player that year) as well as the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Not bad for not being good, huh?

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

 

I was on here trying to tell anyone who would listen, prior to the 2017 season, that Josh Allen's numbers would be way down.  It's easy for you, Biff, to call that an excuse but here's a little perspective: he lost his top two running backs, his top two receivers, his tight end and his center (again, four of these guys are in the NFL now).  Their leading rusher went from a guy who finished 2nd in FBS to a freshman who was LITERALLY converted from a linebacker right before the season started.  They struggled a ton on offense in 2017.  Allen's numbers did not impress.  Anyone who follows Wyoming football could've told you that would be the case.  All of their skill position players were unheralded freshmen and sophomores playing their first college football games, save for two guys who played sparingly in 2016 and aren't very good (see: CJ Johnson's drop of a beautiful deep ball for a would-be TD against Iowa in week 1).  So when Biff is on here telling you that Josh Allen struggled against Iowa and Oregon, well, no s***.  Of course he did.  And you know what, as someone who follows the program, his attitude literally could not have been better all last season.  Not once did he even come remotely close to making an excuse for his numbers or complaining about the glaring lack of talent around him.  Oh yeah, Wyoming was 8-3 with Josh Allen in 2017 and 0-2 without him.  Oh yeah part 2, watch his three TD passes from the bowl game against Central Michigan and tell me how many PRO QB's make all three of those throws.

 

 

FACT CHECK: 

 

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

 

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

Go on youtube.com and watch a video of former teammates talking about JaMarcus Russell skipping meetings, being utterly disengaged, eating copious amounts of s****y food to the point where he weighed in at 300 lbs., etc.  Also guessing JaMarcus Russell didn't score a 37 on the wonderlic.  Josh Allen is as good of a teammate and leader as you will find in the college football ranks.

 

 

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

I'm not saying I agree with ALL of your statements or opinions, but it IS refreshing to hear from someone who's actually watched his games in person. There are many so called "experts" and every year these same people get it wrong sometimes, and right sometimes. That to me, says it's nearly impossible to predict which QB will actually be a good to great QB, so in the end, you trust your information and your instincts and hope for the best. That said, I don't think anyone could argue that taking Allen is all about "potential". In that, it's not like Luck or Manning where you've seen them do it on a level that screams All Pro, but he certainly has all the potential to be that good. 

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2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I would stay away from Allen.   The knocks I hear on him are accuracy and decision making.   So sometimes, (I understand) he makes a bad throw that is hard to understand.  Sometimes, (I understand),  he just completely chooses to do something that is a WTF, is he doing event.   These are things that you can not teach away.   Will he be an EJ with brain-farts?......  I would like to see a player who was recognized as successful at every increasingly advanced level.  Allen  was not recruited by big schools, he played very well in JC for two years (against inferior competition)  and finally had success for two years at Wyoming (the 7th best conference in the country).      There is not a 4 year track record of college success against  top notch teams.  There is enough doubt to scare me away from  making a major investment of draft choices in him.

 

*Nods* This is pretty much where I am.  I see him as an enormously physically gifted, high ceiling guy with development needs, who played in a small-school conference.

 

I would be beyond thrilled if the Bills drafted him at 12 or perhaps a minor trade-up a couple of slots.  I would be "WTF, man?" if the Bills sold the draft farm and traded up to the 1st 5 picks for him, because in my mind, that's what you do for a guy you feel confident can be 'the man' and start right away, not for an enormously high-ceiling prospect.

 

I don't feel we're the best place for him, because when you have that high-ceiling development guy, you really don't want to have him start right away.

 

I am a "Biff from Tonawanda", but since I do see similar questionmarks raised about Allen by experts and scouts, I don't feel I need to go check myself for it.

 

PS I have similar feelings about Lamar Jackson

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan

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A lot of football experts, who do this football thing for a living (and have for decades), are very high on Allen's potential as an NFL QB. If the staff is confident that he can be a franchise QB, I'm more than okay with trading up into the Top5 to land him. 

 

Sure, in a perfect world I'd rather wait until 12 or make a slight trade and still get him, but if he's your franchise QB, go get him. 

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19 minutes ago, Hsker4life said:

A lot of football experts, who do this football thing for a living (and have for decades), are very high on Allen's potential as an NFL QB. If the staff is confident that he can be a franchise QB, I'm more than okay with trading up into the Top5 to land him. 

 

Sure, in a perfect world I'd rather wait until 12 or make a slight trade and still get him, but if he's your franchise QB, go get him. 

You are using the media to say this. NFL teams havent come out and said the kid is high on their boards.

 

So we really have no idea how teams truly feel about Allen.

 

Moreover, let's say for arguments sake every team loves him, does that mean hes a slam dunk to be successful? How many high picks have busted that absolutely everyone loved?

 

All-in-all, maybe it's okay to formulate ones own opinion and not have to rely on media rankings to justify why I think a player will be good or not.

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3 hours ago, WhoTom said:

Regarding this:

 

Unfortunately we live in an era where it's trendy to dispel the opinions of experts. Flat-Earthers, Jenny McCarthy and her degree from "University of Google," and armchair GMs all share the same trait: they think that casual observation and a few hours on the Internet are more valuable than years of training and professional experience. Sad.

 

 

This is true, but on the other hand - we as Bills fans have years where we have felt, with some justification, that we Armchair Andies could overall have used Youtube vids and Internet scouting reports to build a better draft.  Roscoe Parrish, Donte Whitner, John McCargo, Leodis McKelvin, James Hardy, Aaron Maybin....even in recent drafts after our GM and scouting improved we have TJ Graham, EJ Manuel, and Sammy Watkins as puzzling Bills draft-day decisions.

 

So I would have to say, trendy or not, we have a bit more factual justification behind us than the Flat Earth society.  And it is Sad, but not probably for the reason you mean.

 

And some of us, perhaps I should be ashamed to say, put far more than casual observation and a few hours into it.  Those would include Gunnerbill, TheBandit, Buffalo716 and others. (edit: any ashamed applies strictly to myself)

 

26 minutes ago, Hsker4life said:

A lot of football experts, who do this football thing for a living (and have for decades), are very high on Allen's potential as an NFL QB.

 

A lot of 'football experts', meaning the guys who write about football for a living in the media, are indeed very high.

Some of them were equally high on Claussen, Gabbert, Johnny Manziel etc.

Most of them make their former predictions deliberately hard to obtain so they can't be "sanity checked" a couple years down the road - three months ago I volunteered to perform an assessment of several guys if someone could get me their stuff, I had no takers.

 

I put it to you that what none of us know, is where this guy is on actual NFL team's draft boards.

 

A few 'football experts' are not so high on Allen, and even those who are note the same gaps - so it's clearly a matter of how one weights what one sees.

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan

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You

22 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

You are using the media to say this. NFL teams havent come out and said the kid is high on their boards.

 

So we really have no idea how teams truly feel about Allen.

 

Moreover, let's say for arguments sake every team loves him, does that mean hes a slam dunk to be successful? How many high picks have busted that absolutely everyone loved?

 

All-in-all, maybe it's okay to formulate ones own opinion and not have to rely on media rankings to justify why I think a player will be good or not.

I didn't say teams are high on him, although I imagine they are. I did say, however, that many football experts are high on him. 

 

I also have formulated my own opinion on the QBs, but I'm not naive enough to flip out if/when people who know a lot more about football than anyone here make a particular draft choice, including trading up to land their #1 QB. 

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I have no problem freely admitting I want nothing to do with him and I see bust 1000% of the way, BUT if he works out I was wrong. He seems like a good kid at least so I have no qualms against him I just don't buy the argument he is worth picking in 2nd after watching tape let alone the 1st.

 

Now to counter your points

 

"FACT CHECK:

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE"

If your going off of strictly W/Ls then he actually should be ahead of Rosen. He has tremendous talent but you want to see a QB progress numbers wise throughout college. He plateaued and the truth is only Matt Stafford in the last decade plus has succeeded despite a sub 60% passing percentage straight up.

 

"FACT CHECK:

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE"

So what your saying is a guy who I want to have as my franchise QB who I would expect some seasons to lift up a limited roster and raise the play of his teammates couldn't do so as a Junior against the MWC. That does not instill the type of confidence I want as a GM. The college game especially is geared for QBs to have big numbers yet he had a number of games where he couldn't even break 200 yards. We just dumped a QB who had issues with that and now we want to bring in a replacement who also struggles with that? Remember this Ben Rothlisberger had just as little talent and still lit Miami U on fire. If I am drafting a QB from a non power conference I want to see numbers like Big Ben or Carson Wentz.

 

"FACT CHECK:

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE"

Here are 3 QBs we recently drafted or acquired that had the bodies and physique to destroy and instead imploded: Rob Johnson, JP Losman, & EJ Manuel. Everyone of those QB's could bomb the ball downfield, but touch passes, medium accuracy throws, making reads under pressure, etc... they all failed. I have watched his tape and he is atrocious at looking off defenders and tries forcing throws because he is that strong. That is incredibly hard to coach out of a player.

 

Now I do agree the Jamarcus Russell takes are stupid, he certainly has seemed to be a hardworker and good leader which matters. I also agree that he needs to go somewhere that he can sit for at least a year preferably two to truly get time to develop which is why I want the Bills to not draft him. Buffalo is more or less expecting that whoever we draft can start week 1 (disagree if you want but that is the expectation IMO) for Allen that would be a nightmare. I do think if he went somewhere like SD, NYG etc.. he could actually be decent assuming he fixes his flaws. And also in the end I like many have no clue because none of us can predict anything, but I see a massive bust if he is not handled correctly.

 

 

Edited by corta765
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17 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

One thing I will say is that Allen's completion percentage would easily be in the 60s had Wyoming attempted more high percentage throws (screens, bubble screens, etc.)

 

I see very few Allen detractors bring up the completion percentage. When we say he's inaccurate it has nothing to do with his completion percentage. EJ Manuel was at 66.9% in college. So yes we understand the team and offense you play on will affect your stats. But on the TAPE Manuel had very spotty ball placement and Allen is the same way.

15 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Darnold with his loopy release that he has to bring it up from his side to throw might do okay in College...

However, I don't see him being this great starting QB that the scouts are raving about as he has far, far too many turnovers. I don't see him as a cold weather guy and with all those fumbles he reminds me of Mr. ButtFumble Mark Sanchez. 

 

I won't lie, I like Darnold a lot but the Sanchez comparison scares me a little. Although Sanchez was only a one year starter at USC and he was 2 inches shorter.

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