A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

One thing I will say is that Allen's completion percentage would easily be in the 60s had Wyoming attempted more high percentage throws (screens, bubble screens, etc.)

 

They were few and far between in this offense.  I can understand why a Todd Haley would love him, especially after a year or so on the bench.

He literally only needed 1 more easy completion per game to hit 60% lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Nobody in the football world can consistently judge QBs properly more than 50% of the time.

In fact they could just take a coin and flip it and be right as often or more often and it would allow them a lot more free time to play golf

 

Oh, Sh*t, Matter now you've got me thinking and my head hurts.  "Nobody in the football world can consistently judge QBs properly more than 50% of the time".  I'm not sure that's true, and I say that as someone on the board who has probably spent the most time close-up-and-personal with the statistics of QB drafting.

 

Bottom line: I don't think it's really no better than a coin flip for everyone in the NFL.  I think there are some people making draft choices who aren't good at it, or who overweight the wrong criteria.  And I think there are probably others who are good at it, but we don't see it, because once they've got their QB, they're good for years and out of the hunt.

 

What's true is:

-at the very top of the draft (top 2 picks) QB success is about 65-75% (success means getting a guy who can play competently in the NFL, not drafting a star of stars, and the range reflects different criteria used by different folks

-top 5 picks of the draft: 50%

-picks 6-32 and 2nd round: ~20% (actually picks 11-20 30% and 21-32 8%, but the numbers are small)

 

On the surface, the QB draft success rate would appear to support your contention.  I don't think it does.

 

First, we have about 12 teams with an established long term starter.  Now for 10 of those teams, that means at some point, someone in their football world made a good draft choice at QB.  For the other 2, someone made a good FA or trade choice.  So for about 1/3 of NFL teams, whether or not their scouts and GM could judge a QB factor is an unknown, 'cuz they haven't had to do so publically for years.

 

Second, we have about 8 teams who recently drafted or acquired a QB and who appear to have made a successful choice.  So for that team, their success rate is 100% in the year they picked.  We have about 4 teams where the jury is out right now, because their guy hasn't played yet or may have just had some rookie struggles or got injured.

 

That leaves about 8 teams in the league who need a QB.  Maybe it's not a coin flip.  Maybe it's just that the FOs of about 22 teams can get it right, while the other 10 can't.

 

To really know, we'd need data we just don't have, which is how the QB appear on all 32 teams draft boards year after year, relative to how they work out.

 

That doesn't delve into the question of a Steve Young or a Rich Gannon or a Matt Hasselbeck or an Alex Smith where the guy struggled with one team and bloomed with another, which would imply that picking the QB is only part of the equation, properly supporting and developing a QB may lead to the failure of a draft choice who could succeed. with the right support.

 

 

[NewEraBills]

I would say "good" is a relative term in this case.  But in any case, I like Allen's toughness, attitude and his demeanor.  I think the issue that you are going to have is that I'm not so sure the tape tells what you say it does.  One thing I will say though is that Allen in some ways is hard to grade 2016 and 2017 because when you look at both year's there is something in common, namely, for the most part the kid was running for his life.  I'm going to post some games from 2016 and from 2017 and it's clear, the kid felt like he had to make a lot of plays and as a result, some good things happened and some bad things happened.

 

2016 vs San Diego State  http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/17/josh-allen-vs-san-diego-state-2016-mwcc/

Major props for forcing that fumble for a touchback.  Any QB that does that checks off the toughness card for me.

2016 vs BYU    http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/04/16/josh-allen-vs-byu-2016/

2016 vs New Mexico http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/04/16/josh-allen-vs-new-mexico-2016/

 

Now watch 2017

2017 vs Boise http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/27/josh-allen-vs-boise-state-2017/

2017 vs Iowa http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/09/08/josh-allen-vs-iowa-2017/

2017 vs Utah State http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/11/22/josh-allen-vs-utah-state-2017/

 

I have no idea what's going on with their protection scheme, but one thing is constant in all 6 games, Allen got pressured alot.  Sometimes 5 man, sometimes 4, sometimes 6 man pressures.  So I don't buy the he had more talent around him in 2016 that made him world's better that year.  The OL was bad both years.  He had better WR's in 2016 but the comp percentage was higher this year with worse wide wrs.  He was running for his life quite a bit in 2017 trying to make things happen.  He did the same thing the previous year in 2016.  

 

Allen from what I can tell is a hard worker; humble and will be a good leader.  I've changed on him but I still have big concerns.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

One thing I will say is that Allen's completion percentage would easily be in the 60s had Wyoming attempted more high percentage throws (screens, bubble screens, etc.)

They were few and far between in this offense.  I can understand why a Todd Haley would love him, especially after a year or so on the bench.

 

Some years back, I made arguments like that myself.  I believe at the time, I was arguing for Ryan Fitzpatrick, that 1-2 more completions per game would make him a decent QB.  And obviously the Bills bought it because they signed him to that contract.

 

The problem I now see with my younger self, is that the argument goes both ways.  1-2 more interceptions from throws that could have been picked or weren't.  1-2 more high degree of difficulty catches that could have been dropped.  So then that completion % goes down again.

 

I too can see why a Todd Haley would love him.  The unstated but real "other side" of the "arrogant athlete" narrative is that many of these coaches are egotists and think they can fix anyone and "mold clay", while saying "you can't coach height (hand size.  athleticism.  arm strength)" 

Edited April 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, Bag of Milk said:

In junior college Josh Allen finished 57th out of 58 qualifying QB's in  completion percentage.( 49%)

So there is that.

 

Not a fan.

But look at who he had around him! 

 

In all seriousness, what I take away from Metz's argument is that Allen was playing with NFL caliber talent in 2016 and no NFL caliber talent in 2017. Well, his 2016 tape should look better if his team had such a talent discrepancy in a weak football conference, but here's the rub - his numbers in 2016 weren't eye popping at all. The guy has never been a dominant player regardless of who he was playing with and against. How many defensive players in this same conference went on to play in the NFL? Take another QB and put him in Allen's situation - Cam Newton since so many like to compare the two. Would Newton look like a varsity QB playing with and against JV players? Or would he look like just another guy on the football field? I'd have to think he'd shine regardless of who he was playing with and against, so I don't buy the argument he wasn't helped by his teammates. I don't know if Allen will succeed or fail in the NFL, but most signs point to him being a bust.

[BillsFan17]

43 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

This is your opinion and I completely disagree with comparing Allen to Jones. Sure they compare well physically but Cardale was known as a goofball and did not take his craft seriously. That makes a big difference. 

 

There are major physical differences between Losman/Boller and Allen. Allen has 2-3 inches on them and weighs 20lbs more. 

 

There are more differences which have been pointed out in previous threads. I feel like I have wasted too much time already because people are dug in and see what they want to see. 

 

I am no Allen homer and he may end up busting but it also would not entirely shock me if he ended up having a career like Stafford or a Favre (who have more in common with Allen as far as traits/stats than Losman and Boller). 

Kyle Boller- 6'3" 220lbs

Matt Stafford- 6'3" 220lbs

 

JP Losman- 6'2" 212lbs

Brett Favre- 6'2" 222lbs

Edited April 17, 2018 by BillsFan17

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

One that wasn’t touched on.

 

Josh Allen is innacurate. True.

 

And this is the most important one.

Arm talent is as real as Sasquatch.

 

It’s a term invented by Trent Dilfer to provide people a lazy way of describing all things Arm. And as all of us with eyes know, throwing is much more than just “arm.”

 

Arm Talent. Lol

You hate Trent, don’t you?  I’m ambivalent toward him. 

 

Is it so hard for you to accept a widely accepted term regarding how well a guy can throw the ball to different places under different circumstances. Some people are natural throwers, EJ is not. Who do you want to add to that list?  Where does Allen sit? 

 

It does NOT describe all things arm, it’s most things excluding arm strength. Now, can you break that down further? Of course. If a kid has a 3.5 GPA, it is not an indication of all his abilities. He may have a 4.0 in math and a 3.0 in english. You are just stubborn on this point. Do you have a phrase you would prefer the world use instead? Or do we have to break it down into 27 different categories? 

 

Arm talent also does not, in my mind, have anything to do with reading the field, and finding the target. That is something different, unless you disagree, of course. 

Edited April 17, 2018 by Augie

[Big Turk]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, Sh*t, Matter now you've got me thinking and my head hurts.  "Nobody in the football world can consistently judge QBs properly more than 50% of the time".  I'm not sure that's true, and I say that as someone on the board who has probably spent the most time close-up-and-personal with the statistics of QB drafting.

 

Bottom line: I don't think it's really no better than a coin flip for everyone in the NFL.  I think there are some people making draft choices who aren't good at it, or who overweight the wrong criteria.  And I think there are probably others who are good at it, but we don't see it, because once they've got their QB, they're good for years and out of the hunt.

 

What's true is:

-at the very top of the draft (top 2 picks) QB success is about 65-75% (success means getting a guy who can play competently in the NFL, not drafting a star of stars, and the range reflects different criteria used by different folks

-top 5 picks of the draft: 50%

-picks 6-32 and 2nd round: ~20% (actually picks 11-20 30% and 21-32 8%, but the numbers are small)

 

On the surface, the QB draft success rate would appear to support your contention.  I don't think it does.

 

First, we have about 12 teams with an established long term starter.  Now for 10 of those teams, that means at some point, someone in their football world made a good draft choice at QB.  For the other 2, someone made a good FA or trade choice.  So for about 1/3 of NFL teams, whether or not their scouts and GM could judge a QB factor is an unknown, 'cuz they haven't had to do so publically for years.

 

Second, we have about 8 teams who recently drafted or acquired a QB and who appear to have made a successful choice.  So for that team, their success rate is 100% in the year they picked.  We have about 4 teams where the jury is out right now, because their guy hasn't played yet or may have just had some rookie struggles or got injured.

 

That leaves about 8 teams in the league who need a QB.  Maybe it's not a coin flip.  Maybe it's just that the FOs of about 22 teams can get it right, while the other 10 can't.

 

To really know, we'd need data we just don't have, which is how the QB appear on all 32 teams draft boards year after year, relative to how they work out.

 

That doesn't delve into the question of a Steve Young or a Rich Gannon or a Matt Hasselbeck or an Alex Smith where the guy struggled with one team and bloomed with another, which would imply that picking the QB is only part of the equation, properly supporting and developing a QB may lead to the failure of a draft choice who could succeed. with the right support.

 

 

 

Spending a top 5 pick in the draft isn't for guys who can "play competently.  So the criteria for a QB taken in the top 5 of the draft now becomes the same as a CB, RB or WR that gets drafted in the 3rd round?  Because plenty of those guys can and do play "competently" in the NFL for many years after being drafted there.  Sometimes even lower...

 

The fact that the bar is set at "can play competently" shows in fact that what I said is pretty much true...unless you lower the bar so a 95 year old granny in a wheelchair can step over it, the success rate is far less than that.

Edited April 17, 2018 by matter2003

[Tyrod's friend]

No intent on snark here but ...  

He was completing around 49% of his passes on a JUCO team in 14, right? He was with the WY program in '15 riding pine, and then in 16 he played on a team with five or six NFL offensive talents ... in the MWC ... and his team lost six games. So, not for nothing, but it's not like he was some nube tossed to the lions; the opposition wasn't like he was playing in the SEC and he had by even your account a superior supporting cast. He had starting collegiate experience at a lower level and it's not like he didn't know the offense. It didn't result in really great season and really just ordinary statistics.

'17 he had no talent around him. OK. Fine. But  what I did not hear Metz saying and I certainly didn't see was Josh Allen improving his game. I think that's a universal opinion among people that know a lot more than any of us. Part of being a QB is knowing to take what the defense is giving you, and part of it is making the read and knowing when and where the blitz is coming from and adapting. What I saw in admittedly limited viewing, and it's clear it's different than Metz, is a guy that wasn't making that read, that was in a constant hero mode. Yeah, he had crappy teammates. I heard that already; so you don't try and jam the ball 60 yards downfield and emulate Brett Favre. Maybe you just drop it off to the guy on the hot read and live to play another down.

Hey, the original poster got to see him live; none of use can say that and I think it's fair to say that the Buffalo scouts probably saw fewer live games of Josh Allen that Metz did. So thanks for sharing. It was definitely a good take and a good read.

[Bag of Milk]

29 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

But look at who he had around him! 

 

In all seriousness, what I take away from Metz's argument is that Allen was playing with NFL caliber talent in 2016 and no NFL caliber talent in 2017. Well, his 2016 tape should look better if his team had such a talent discrepancy in a weak football conference, but here's the rub - his numbers in 2016 weren't eye popping at all. The guy has never been a dominant player regardless of who he was playing with and against. How many defensive players in this same conference went on to play in the NFL? Take another QB and put him in Allen's situation - Cam Newton since so many like to compare the two. Would Newton look like a varsity QB playing with and against JV players? Or would he look like just another guy on the football field? I'd have to think he'd shine regardless of who he was playing with and against, so I don't buy the argument he wasn't helped by his teammates. I don't know if Allen will succeed or fail in the NFL, but most signs point to him being a bust.

So we agree?

 

Ultimately for me a true franchise QB elevates the play of those around him.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Spending a top 5 pick in the draft isn't for guys who can "play competently. 

 

Why?

 

25 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

So the criteria for a QB taken in the top 5 of the draft now becomes the same as a CB, RB or WR that gets drafted in the 3rd round?

 

Sure.  Whether you draft a guy in the 1st or the 5th, you want to get a guy who can play competently in the NFL  You're just more likely to get one in the 1st than the 3rd. 

 

Sure, you'd like to draft the next Tom Brady or JJ Watt, but teams have won Superbowls with Eli Manning and Joe Flacco - do you see those teams throwing them out?

 

25 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

The fact that the bar is set at "can play competently" shows in f3act that what I said is pretty much true...unless you lower the bar so a 95 year old granny in a wheelchair can step over it, the success rate is far less than that.

 

Ookay dookay, have it your way.

[metzelaars_lives]

2 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Yep, he is just misunderstood. One of the greatest qbs to ever play, he was only playing at Wyoming because all the Biff's running college teams were too stupid to realize how great he was. His completion % has always been low because he throws the ball down the field a lot. That fact is not accurately reflected in his ypa because people are biffs. Biffs I tell ya!?

Todd McShay knows way more about football than you.  Like, way, way more.  And Carson Wentz couldn't even play in D1?  You believe that s***?

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

This is so far from the truth, it's laughable

Well McShay and Kiper have maintained that he is a top 1 or 2 QB from last year through today.  And virtually every mock draft any of us has seen has him, at worst, as the fourth QB off the board.  He appears to be one of only two QB's in contention for the first overall pick.  So what am I missing here?

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

No intent on snark here but ...  

He was completing around 49% of his passes on a JUCO team in 14, right? He was with the WY program in '15 riding pine, and then in 16 he played on a team with five or six NFL offensive talents ... in the MWC ... and his team lost six games. So, not for nothing, but it's not like he was some nube tossed to the lions; the opposition wasn't like he was playing in the SEC and he had by even your account a superior supporting cast. He had starting collegiate experience at a lower level and it's not like he didn't know the offense. It didn't result in really great season and really just ordinary statistics.

'17 he had no talent around him. OK. Fine. But  what I did not hear Metz saying and I certainly didn't see was Josh Allen improving his game. I think that's a universal opinion among people that know a lot more than any of us. Part of being a QB is knowing to take what the defense is giving you, and part of it is making the read and knowing when and where the blitz is coming from and adapting. What I saw in admittedly limited viewing, and it's clear it's different than Metz, is a guy that wasn't making that read, that was in a constant hero mode. Yeah, he had crappy teammates. I heard that already; so you don't try and jam the ball 60 yards downfield and emulate Brett Favre. Maybe you just drop it off to the guy on the hot read and live to play another down.

Hey, the original poster got to see him live; none of use can say that and I think it's fair to say that the Buffalo scouts probably saw fewer live games of Josh Allen that Metz did. So thanks for sharing. It was definitely a good take and a good read.

Haha.  Not the case, buddy.  He was named the opening day starter and suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the first quarter of week 1.  At least have your facts straight.

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

None of this matters because all of the scouts/GMs/football people who live eat and breathe this stuff 24 hours a day/7 days a weeks/365 days a year STILL cannot figure out how to properly evaluate QB prospects, meaning that you, a random internet poster, certainly can't know how to properly evaluate them.

 

However that also means that regardles of what you say about any of the prospects you are likely to be no more wrong or right than anyone else if you look at the overall class.

 

It also means that if you took out a coin and flipped it in the air every year when asked about QB prospects and their chances for NFL success you would likely be just as right or even MORE right than thees football people.  

 

This leads me to my point that none of this stuff matters because it obviously doesn't translate very well to the NFL and you are basically shooting craps by taking a QB because if there WAS a way to figure this stuff out, it would have been fiured out with all of the analytics people and football personnel departments who could benefit from this.

 

This is a fair post and almost kind of my point.  I don't take any issue with people hedging their bets.  Again, I myself am not over-the-top gung ho Josh Allen.  I just can't deal with the morons who are sure as day that he's gonna be a bust as if they know something that people who know way more than them, don't know.

Edited April 17, 2018 by metzelaars_lives

[metzelaars_lives]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

One thing I will say is that Allen's completion percentage would easily be in the 60s had Wyoming attempted more high percentage throws (screens, bubble screens, etc.)

 

They were few and far between in this offense.  I can understand why a Todd Haley would love him, especially after a year or so on the bench.

As someone who watched every game he played live, yes, this is a huge, huge point that I cannot stress enough and you would think people would be more interested in understanding.  As a Bills fan, I can remember a game where JP Losman dumped the ball off to Anthony Thomas like 9 times and he ended up with like 9 catches for 36 yards.  Worked well for Losman's completion percentage that day.  I think it was at Jacksonville. 

[John from Riverside]

In all honesty I dont know that much about him

 

Its gonna be interesting 3 years from now when we look back at this draft.....something tells me this could end up being the greatest QB draft ever

[Hsker4life]

IMO

1. Darnold

2. Allen

3. Rosen

4. Mayfield

5. Rudolph

[Dadonkadonk]

Somehow in my mind I can forgive the Allen low completion percentage but not the high Darnold turnover rate.  

I'm probably wrong in both circumstances.  

I still like Allen best followed by Rosen.  Sadly I think the draft will go Allen, Darnold, Rosen 1,2, and 3.  I don't think Mayfield is worth trading up and the Bills then sit at 12 and then take Mayfield or Rudolph.  I'm ok with that as it keeps all the picks to rebuild the lines, LB, and WR corps

If the Giants pass on a QB and Browns take Darnold, the Bills must trade away multiple picks to get ahead of Denver at 5 to get the whichever QB the Jets don't take.  

Worst case scenario is the Bills give up a ton to get to #2, but at least then they will get the guy they want.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Not trying to convert anyone.  Just trying to tell you that if everyone in the football world- scouts, GM's analysts, etc.- likes Josh Allen but you, a fan listening to WGR and calling in on the whiner line, does not, it might be time for you to take a look in the mirror and try and understand why people who know way more about football than you, do like him.

This is a very valid point. And your breakdown of him was nice. The best comparison I have seen for Josh Allen was earlier today.  In essence; Josh Allen is like a nice piece of furniture from IKEA. He comes in and is really nice and all the parts are in the box, you just need to put it all together.

 

Now, I don't know if Allen will end up more like Big Ben or more like Ryan Mallett. No one does. But Allen needs work (and yes, all the guys coming out do). I don't know if this team is set up for him to put it all together at this time.

 

We saw the drop off when he had less talent. That's exactly what he's walking into here. We also don't have a very experienced QB coach, a defensive minded HC. We don't even have an experienced vet QB that can help him out (Like a McCown). 

 

In the right setting I could see him do well. The Giants for him would be perfect imo. But here? My hunch is we don't have the tools in place to help him take it to the next level. And add to get him we would need to likely add extra high draft picks to the mix and move to get him. Just sounds like a bad move. Again, in the right setting I could see him flourish. I just don't see here as the right fit.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

In all honesty I dont know that much about him

 

Its gonna be interesting 3 years from now when we look back at this draft.....something tells me this could end up being the greatest QB draft ever

Yeah, seems a lot like the Eli/Rivers/Big Ben draft.

 

There should be at least 3 franchise QBs.

 

Were people so miffed over Eli's attitude back then, like they are with Rosen's? I assume so.

 

IMO, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Rudolph most closely fit the mold of that 2003 draft. Allen and Jackson are more of the flashy athletic types who are fools' gold.

 

I don't think any other QB in this draft will be given much of an opportunity. They'll have to hang around as backups for a while in hopes of eventually getting an opportunity.

 

Peterman's been super lucky in that regard. 5th round pick who's been given a fair chance from the get-go.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, No Place To Hyde said:

TWe saw the drop off when he had less talent. That's exactly what he's walking into here. We also don't have a very experienced QB coach, a defensive minded HC. We don't even have an experienced vet QB that can help him out (Like a McCown). 

 

*sigh* all of what you say is true.  And also worrisome, no matter what QB we draft.

 

 

[metzelaars_lives]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

All those arguments are nothing new. I’ve heard them all

 

but idk what qualifies as unheralded for a JUCO prospect. Sure not many D1 offers but but I knew who he was and 247 which is highly respectable has him as the 5th ranked Dual threat JUCO QB from his class.. that’s a pretty high JUCO ranking 

 

.80 grade

 

 Baker Mayfields was .8383 iirc

 

https://247sports.com/Player/Josh-Allen-78109

Well, Wyoming was the only D1 team to offer him a scholarship, I know that.