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A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

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Good read. Allen could beat the odds and become an NFL QB. But I don't want to be the team that bets on it. I hope the Browns like him, paving the way for us to go get Darnold.

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23 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Not trying to convert anyone.  Just trying to tell you that if everyone in the football world- scouts, GM's analysts, etc.- likes Josh Allen but you, a fan listening to WGR and calling in on the whiner line, does not, it might be time for you to take a look in the mirror and try and understand why people who know way more about football than you, do like him.

 

Is this another one of those facts you obtained from talking to all the scouts and GMs in the football world? 

 

I have my own opinion that may differ from others so therefore I am some mouth breather who listens to WGR and calls the whiner line. Cool thread though. You’re not trying to convert anyone but you’ll just try and insult them for having a difference in opinion. 

Edited by Bangarang
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1 minute ago, metzelaars_lives said:

What did I say that is debatable?  I realize calling him "elusive" isn't a "fact."  But everything I wrote is accurate.  You are not going to find a more accurate assessment of Josh Allen than what I just posted (also not a fact, I suppose).  

 

Honestly, I'd start with the being good part of the equation. Maybe he was good for a college QB but, as a pro prospect, he's mightily underwhelming.

 

When you reference the chances of a higher completion % if Hill catches a lot more passes, I know what you're getting at. However, his stats aren't what make him inaccurate in my mind. I've seen him absolutely fire swing passes at his backs with horrible placement/touch. His touch in general frightens me but moreso in the short/quick game. Someone else chimed in about this (I forgot who, feel free to jump in if you see this), that there's no rhyme or reason to his misfires. With Darnold/Lamar, I see misses mainly due to their base. With Allen, there's not one consistent element to his inconsistencies. Ergo, how do you fix what seems to be natural inaccuracy with no root cause?

 

Josh has his plus points, of course he does. In most physical regards, he's the prototype. Pound for pound, I'd consider him equal to Lamar as an athlete. Much like Patrick Mahomes, he's definitely got an 'it factor' about him. His highlight reel will leave you drooling because he's not devoid of talent. I don't want to fault yourself or anyone else that likes him for doing so. In another world where he's a plucky underdog that goes on Day 2/3, I'd probably understand taking the plunge on him.

 

I just can't shake this feeling that I've seen him very recently in a Bills jersey because he's nearly word-for-word how I felt about Cardale Jones.

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26 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I like 4 QB’s in this draft. Darnold, Allen, Mayfield and Rosen....not in that particular order.

 

Just looking forward to next week so the speculation can be over.

 

I also like these 4 in no particular order and for that reason I would hate to see the Bills give up huge amounts of draft capital to get one of them.  I think the fact that we're 10 days out from the draft and none of us know which player is going #1 tells us that there isn't what could be considered a "can't miss" prospect amongst the 4.  If you remember the 2011 season that was just a tank contest to see who was going to draft Andrew Luck who was universally accepted as the #1 pick months before the draft. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Epstein's Mother

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9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Is this another one of those facts you obtained from talking to all the scouts and GMs in the football world? 

 

I have my own opinion that may differ from others so therefore I am some mouth breather who listens to WGR and calls the whiner line. Cool thread though. You’re not trying to convert anyone but you’ll just try and insult them for having a difference in opinion. 

I sensed some smarminess in your post so I responded in a smarmy manner.  No disrespect.  

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Great write-up Metz, I for one, would be very happy with the Bills getting Allen .... I think all the experts agree he has the biggest upside potential of the top QBs in this draft.  Go big or go home Bills!

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9 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

Honestly, I'd start with the being good part of the equation. Maybe he was good for a college QB but, as a pro prospect, he's mightily underwhelming.

 

When you reference the chances of a higher completion % if Hill catches a lot more passes, I know what you're getting at. However, his stats aren't what make him inaccurate in my mind. I've seen him absolutely fire swing passes at his backs with horrible placement/touch. His touch in general frightens me but moreso in the short/quick game. Someone else chimed in about this (I forgot who, feel free to jump in if you see this), that there's no rhyme or reason to his misfires. With Darnold/Lamar, I see misses mainly due to their base. With Allen, there's not one consistent element to his inconsistencies. Ergo, how do you fix what seems to be natural inaccuracy with no root cause?

 

Josh has his plus points, of course he does. In most physical regards, he's the prototype. Pound for pound, I'd consider him equal to Lamar as an athlete. Much like Patrick Mahomes, he's definitely got an 'it factor' about him. His highlight reel will leave you drooling because he's not devoid of talent. I don't want to fault yourself or anyone else that likes him for doing so. In another world where he's a plucky underdog that goes on Day 2/3, I'd probably understand taking the plunge on him.

 

I just can't shake this feeling that I've seen him very recently in a Bills jersey because he's nearly word-for-word how I felt about Cardale Jones.

Again, he WAS good in 2016.  I think a really key point is that his 2016 and 2017 seasons are entirely different entities.  They were completely different football teams.  That’s why I don’t like the blanket statements about what type of college QB he was or wasn’t.  It’s more nuanced than that.  There isn’t a person on the planet who didn’t think he had a GREAT 2016 for a first year starter.  And to those wondering why he “regressed” in 2017, I’m just trying to offer some clarity on the subject.

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Thanks for sharing. Good stuff. 

 

I have warmed up to Allen more as this offseason has went on, and actually liked him a lot last offseason. I remember a lot of discussion of him, Darnold and Rosen going 1, 2 ,3. He definitely seemed to regress this year, but as you said he lost talent around him (more than I realized). 

 

I still think his bust potential is higher than the other top 3 QBs in this draft. 

But I also think his ceiling could be the highest too. He just seems like a very boom or bust prospect to me. 

 

I would still prefer Darnold or Rosen but If we draft Allen I will definitely be on board. I will support him and give him every opportunity to prove he is our guy. 

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Nice post Metz.  

 

I know practically nothing about these guys, but I know what I think is important. Accuracy and decision making.  I wouldn't taken Allen anywhere in the top half of the first round because, as you day, he hasn't shown he's a good decision maker and regardless of what you say about not throwing to running backs, 56% is scary.   

 

Carson Wentz showed in college what he had.  Allen didnt, and I think that makes him a big gamble. 

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1 minute ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Again, he WAS good in 2016.  I think a really key point is that his 2016 and 2017 seasons are entirely different entities.  They were completely different football teams.  That’s why I don’t like the blanket statements about what type of college QB he was or wasn’t.  It’s more nuanced than that.  There isn’t a person on the planet who didn’t think he had a GREAT 2016 for a first year starter.  And to those wondering why he “regressed” in 2017, I’m just trying to offer some clarity on the subject.

 

I appreciate that and it's absolutely correct that they lost a lot of talent. It's certainly a big part of the context surrounding Allen and the narratives that have attached themselves. I think that I missed the boat on Tanner Gentry a little because the stark contrast between him and the guys at WR last season was definitely noticeable.

 

Maybe I'm a little different to most when I watch a QB. I watch them almost in isolation so the supporting cast doesn't sway my grading. I make mental and/or written notes about the talent around them but I grade them in a vacuum. If he makes a good throw and it gets dropped, it's still a good throw. Stats need that context.

 

Maybe some of the misses were timing-based due to new personnel, it's feasible.

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7s7dGGh.jpg

 

 

No reason to go on a crusade for your guy. Its out of our hands. We will all be forced to pallet whomever 

Edited by ddaryl
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5 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I appreciate that and it's absolutely correct that they lost a lot of talent. It's certainly a big part of the context surrounding Allen and the narratives that have attached themselves. I think that I missed the boat on Tanner Gentry a little because the stark contrast between him and the guys at WR last season was definitely noticeable.

 

Maybe I'm a little different to most when I watch a QB. I watch them almost in isolation so the supporting cast doesn't sway my grading. I make mental and/or written notes about the talent around them but I grade them in a vacuum. If he makes a good throw and it gets dropped, it's still a good throw. Stats need that context.

 

Maybe some of the misses were timing-based due to new personnel, it's feasible.

Yes dude!  Tanner Gentry was INSANE in 2016!  Jacob Hollister was playing in the Super Bowl for the Patriots.  Chase Roullier was the starting center for the Redskins by year’s end.  And Brian Hill was playing on MNF for the Bengals.  All gone.  That 2016 team is one of my favorite sports teams ever.

Edited by metzelaars_lives
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24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Good read. Allen could beat the odds and become an NFL QB. But I don't want to be the team that bets on it. I hope the Browns like him, paving the way for us to go get Darnold.

I would take Darnold ahead of him but the mere fact that he is being considered taken at the top of the draft(at least it seems that way) tells you that he is under serious consideration of being in the top group. 

 

Even when he is being considered near the top of the qb listing it is typically acknowledged that he needs more development time than some of the other top tier qbs in the class. Few people are saying otherwise. If a team wants immediate help at qb then that team shouldn't select him. If a team is willing to invest a year or two or even more then he is well worth taking because of the upside potential. 

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9 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

7s7dGGh.jpg

 

 

No reason to go on a crusade for your guy. Its out of our hands. We will all be forced to pallet whomever 

Ahh meme guy.  Glad to have you.  Also how is saying that a guy who most analysts have as the #2 or 3 QB, is my #2 or 3 QB, a “crusade?”  Sounds like anyone who doesn’t think Josh Allen will definitely be a bust is on a crusade.

Edited by metzelaars_lives

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Nice write up, thank you.  I’d much rather have Darnold Rosen or mayfield but if he’s the guy, I’ll be rooting him on while praying that we surround him with the right pieces and offensive gameplan 

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5 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Yes dude!  Tanner Gentry was INSANE in 2016!  Jacob Hollister was playing in the Super Bowl for the Patriots.  Chase Roullier was the starting center for the Redskins by year’s end.  And Brian Hill was playing on MNF for the Bengals.  All gone.  That 2016 team is one of my favorite sports teams ever.

 

There is a nagging thought in my mind that perhaps Gentry played kingmaker for Allen just a little. Shades of Mike Evans and Johnny Manziel at A&M, perhaps not quite as pronounced.

 

I don't wish ill on the guy, he seems to be a genuinely good human being. I'm just not convinced that many of these "all the tools" guys have actually put it together. He's mid-stage Humpty Dumpty, all the pieces are there but you've got a hell of a job putting them back together again.

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4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Nice write up, thank you.  I’d much rather have Darnold Rosen or mayfield but if he’s the guy, I’ll be rooting him on while praying that we surround him with the right pieces and offensive gameplan 

 

I agree completely.  I do respect your argument on behalf on Allen.  Your thoughts are well organized and a pleasure to read.

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Nice write-up. In 2017, Wyoming RBs only accounted for 11 receptions ALL YEAR (barely 1 per game).  If you watched Wyoming, they hardly threw any lay-up dink or dunk throws such as screens or RB flares.  A dink and dunk throw in that offense was a 10 yard out pattern.  Allen certainly had his share of ugly misses, but I am certain you can find those with every QB.  His misses are magnified and over analyzed because of his completion %.  As Chris Simms stated, with the offensive he had in 2017, it's amazing he even had 56%.   Craig Bohl even admitted they didn't have the proper QB coaching at Wyoming to help him with his mechanics.  Look how far he has come in three months under Jordan Palmer, and with the right coaching in the NFL, I think he will be very successful. 

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Many thanks - as others have said good read - I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Biff form Tononwanda reference.....More Biff please - in a good way!

 

That said - I am with you - not my #1 guy but I really do believe that Beane and McD have a plan - hopefully they are able to execute that plan and they do indeed land the right guy.

 

Go Bills!

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12 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Ahh meme guy.  Glad to have you.  Also how is saying that a guy who most analysts have as the #2 or 3 QB, is my #2 or 3 QB, a “crusade?”  Sounds like anyone who doesn’t think Josh Allen will definitely be a bust is on a crusade.

 

Seriously. 

Who cares what anyone thinks. We all have a favorite and in the end we will all be forced fed the pick. So rants trying to convince other fans why your choice is superior is by definition a crusade 

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