A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

6 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So you are, of course, aware that Josh Allen went 2-0 against CSU the last two years (I was at the game in Laramie in the snow this past season).  Look dude.  He was really good in 2016.  Good enough to take a team that went 2-10 the year before to a MWC Championship game and a fairly prestigious bowl game.  Good enough to be named the 2nd team all-MWC QB and the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Good enough to be projected as the #1 or #2 overall pick and going into 2017.  I realize the numbers don't necessarily pop off the page but if you watched him play, it was uncanny the impact he had in turning the program around.  Again, being a sheep fan, you have seen this firsthand twice.

I admit that Rosen was my first choice. But, I got over it in a hurry when I realized with a bit of patience, we got a very unique talent. People who won't believe in anything but numbers (so-called evidence) will never like this pick. As a matter of fact, a few on here have been real jerks about it. They won't admit it but they must secretly hope he fails so they can say they were correct. I'm rooting that the Josh succeds and the Bills do what is necessary to help him get there! 

Edited April 28, 2018 by horned dogs

[PromoTheRobot]

What is reality?

[metzelaars_lives]

Just now, horned dogs said:

I admit that Rosen was my first choice. But, I got over it in a hurry when I realized with a bit of patience we got a very unique talent. People who won't believe in anything but numbers (so-called evidence) will never like this pick. As a matter of fact, a few on here have been real jerks about it. They won't admit it but they must secretly hope he fails so they can't say they were correct. I'm rooting that the Josh succeds and the Bills do what is necessary to help him get there! 

Clearly I am as pro-Allen as anyone and even I recognize he’s a bit of a project.  They have invested a ton in him and I think doing what’s best for his development is paramount for the organization- even if it means they suck this year and draft the top 1-2 receiver in the draft a year from now.  I honestly think he shouldn’t see the field for at least the first half of this season, if not the whole season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

I too now live here in Denver area from WNY.  I also have 2 boys attending Colorado State, so am pretty familiar with Mountain West football.

 

I respectfully disagree with your about Allen.  I don’t think he was ever good in his college career.  There is not a number out there from his career that says he will be a good NFL QB.  It felt so much worse that they selected Allen with Rosen on the board.  Comparing the two QBs football wise is really a joke and they played almost the same amount of games in their college careers.  The article I am including in this post was really good and eye opening with its depth of analysis.

 

All of this was BEFORE the tweets came out which I find inexcusable.  So taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision, because the choice football wise is not close.  But yeah, at least the Bills still have their “process” and their “football, faith, and family” right?

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

I do think teams try to get "too cute" sometimes with the draft - they start weighting "face of the franchise" media presence or "raw physical talent" stuff and lose track of the fundamental traits of a QB:

1) how well can he recognize the D, interpret, and decide what he should do? (OODA loop)

2) how well can he accomplish what he decides he should do? (throw the ball with accuracy, precision and placement)

 

If it comforts you (if you're seeking comfort) to know that there are numbers in his career that say he won't be a bust, I direct you to Mike's post on some off-beat "bust" metrics, where Mayfield and Allen are the only 2 QB that did not get binned in with the "busts".
 

 

What I'm actually more interested in here is the notion that Allen's tweets were inexcusable.  Maybe you can explain a bit just what teenage actions are or are not excusable?  As the parent of a teenager, I kind of have a list, myself.  Basic math indicates he was 15 or 16 years old, having grown up in a small white conservative farming community in Northern Cali (for those who don't know, northern Cali is politically and demographically sort of like Oklahoma).  I would be mortified if my teen made such tweets.  But inexcusable?  Really?  Enjoy your GoPhone while you reflect on making better life choices next time, enjoy the History reading you're gonna do to educate yourself, go forth and never do likewise again full Stop.

[Cripple Creek]

On 4/16/2018 at 7:44 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

thanks metz. Allen is the toughest prospect to get a read on, imo. I dont feel great about him. But if Beane traded up to #2, and grabbed Allen, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt.

They deserve that benefit. People just can’t get past their preconceptions, mostly gained without the benefit of actually watching him. I didn’t watch him. I’ve seen highlights. I’ve seen lowlights. I’ve read the numbers. I am not going to beat my chest and proclaim that I know more than the pros do.

 

Good luck to the kid.

 

Those of you who can’t give the same benefit can go take a flying leap.

Edited April 28, 2018 by Cripple Creek

[Mat68]

With better talent on the team in 2016 Allen had a better passer rating than Rosen.  In his career in college compared to Wentz who had the same coach and system Allen threw for 49 less yards and 1 less Td's in 15 less games.  He was worthy of the #1 pick and in my opinion if it wasnt for the tweets he goes #1.  The Bills got a franchise Qb.  Built for Buffalo and the elements in the Fall and winter.   After the first week of training camp Allen will be named the starting Qb.  He is more equipped early than some people believe. 

[Bills4life1924]

52 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Missed this the first time around. Nice writeup, thanks @metzelaars_lives.

^^this^^.. enjoyable read. I'm with you(metz) bout the naysayers that know more than scouts and nfl staffs. So sick of hearing it. I posted several times, I cannot wait til Allen proves all them wrong. Thanks for the post!!

[Billsflyer12]

12 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So you are, of course, aware that Josh Allen went 2-0 against CSU the last two years (I was at the game in Laramie in the snow this past season).  Look dude.  He was really good in 2016.  Good enough to take a team that went 2-10 the year before to a MWC Championship game and a fairly prestigious bowl game.  Good enough to be named the 2nd team all-MWC QB and the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Good enough to be projected as the #1 or #2 overall pick and going into 2017.  I realize the numbers don't necessarily pop off the page but if you watched him play, it was uncanny the impact he had in turning the program around.  Again, being a sheep fan, you have seen this firsthand twice.

 

As far as the tweets go, give me a break, he was freaking 15.  Not to mention, he was quoting rap songs and TV shows.  It is a nothing burger if there ever was one.  My God, Incognito said some of the most vile, racist and homophobic s**t you can possibly say- as an adult, mind you- and he was able to quell that in the locker room somehow.  The stupid tweets will be swept under the rug soon enough, as they should be.  15 dude.  He was 15.

Am aware of the CSU stuff.  I am not a Ram fan, just send the checks to them.?

 

Allen has 2 300+ yard games in his career in the Mountain West, 1 was a 3OT game and the other against Gardner Webb.  He as more sub 100 yd games then 300+ Yd games in his career.  Rosen had 12 300+ yd games and 5 400+ yd games in a power 5 conference.

 

This is not close, read that article, compare stats to Rosen.  Taking Allen was not a football decision, it just wasn’t.

 

As far as the tweets, it is far from a “nothing burger.”  I have raised 5 kids, 3 boys and my 13 year boy was like, “why would he use those words”?  I don’t care if he was quoting anything, he can’t use those words.  Does that mean he shouldn’t get a second chance, no.  But does that mean I want him on the Bills, no, as I hated and called out the Incognito signing.  I put my $ where my mouth was also, haven’t bought any gear, haven’t flown home to watch any games and I haven’t purchased Sunday Ticket since.

 

Taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision.  No reasonable, objective look at the records, stats and data can say otherwise.  Hey, the Bills can choose who they want for whatever reasons they want, but so can I with my choices and $.

[BillsMafioso]

Allen: underdog small town blue collar kid with a gunner arm

 

Rosen: epitome of privaleged elitist immature Californian

 

Darnold: super californianian BRO with the typical lug bro voice. Grew up on beaches in Orange County.

 

Mayfield: went 1st overall. 

 

 

im not from buffalo nor live in it, I’m from NYC and never been which is why the Allen haters crack me up. You upstate folk hate your own type!!!

Edited April 28, 2018 by BillsMafioso

[metzelaars_lives]

29 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Am aware of the CSU stuff.  I am not a Ram fan, just send the checks to them.?

 

Allen has 2 300+ yard games in his career in the Mountain West, 1 was a 3OT game and the other against Gardner Webb.  He as more sub 100 yd games then 300+ Yd games in his career.  Rosen had 12 300+ yd games and 5 400+ yd games in a power 5 conference.

 

This is not close, read that article, compare stats to Rosen.  Taking Allen was not a football decision, it just wasn’t.

 

As far as the tweets, it is far from a “nothing burger.”  I have raised 5 kids, 3 boys and my 13 year boy was like, “why would he use those words”?  I don’t care if he was quoting anything, he can’t use those words.  Does that mean he shouldn’t get a second chance, no.  But does that mean I want him on the Bills, no, as I hated and called out the Incognito signing.  I put my $ where my mouth was also, haven’t bought any gear, haven’t flown home to watch any games and I haven’t purchased Sunday Ticket since.

 

Taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision.  No reasonable, objective look at the records, stats and data can say otherwise.  Hey, the Bills can choose who they want for whatever reasons they want, but so can I with my choices and $.

As far as the numbers, if you think that Rosen or Darnold would’ve put up even better numbers in Wyoming’s 2017 offense than they did in the flag football PAC 12 and that Allen would’ve put up even worse numbers with, say, Oklahoma State, then I suppose I can’t factually prove you wrong but we can agree to disagree.  As far as his 2016 numbers, again, this was a team that went 2-10 the year before and it was his first year as a D1 QB.  I would also direct you to his rushing stats from that year.  Something to consider if you’re comparing them apples to apples.  I can’t overstate what a big part of his game it is.

[Mojo44]

Just read the OP for the first time. Well done! Terrific logical, reasoned and well thought out point by point defense of Allen’s strengths and areas that need improvement!  I’m looking forward to watching him develop.

[Billsflyer12]

1 hour ago, metzelaars_lives said:

As far as the numbers, if you think that Rosen or Darnold would’ve put up even better numbers in Wyoming’s 2017 offense than they did in the flag football PAC 12 and that Allen would’ve put up even worse numbers with, say, Oklahoma State, then I suppose I can’t factually prove you wrong but we can agree to disagree.  As far as his 2016 numbers, again, this was a team that went 2-10 the year before and it was his first year as a D1 QB.  I would also direct you to his rushing stats from that year.  Something to consider if you’re comparing them apples to apples.  I can’t overstate what a big part of his game it is.

Not interested in dragging this out, as I am pretty sure we are not going to change each other minds, and that it ok.  Appreciate the civil discussion.  2 questions.

 

Do you think Josh Allen is a better QB then Josh Rosen?

Do you think Josh Allen is better then Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes?  Bills could have picked any of them.

Edited April 28, 2018 by Billsflyer12

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Thanks Metz for the write up. I read the entire original post before realizing it was done on the 16th. 

I am really coming around to Allen. Part because he plays for team I love, part because Beane and McDermott like him, and part because the more homework I do on him I think Allen has a real chance to be special. This write up helped. I knew the talent level was down in ‘17 verse ‘16 but didn’t realize how much. 

Allen has all the tools. We need coaches that can reach him and help bring out what he can be. I believe we have the right kind of coaches now that can do that. Just like Carroll played a huge roll in Wilson being who he is , McDermott holds to some degree that same responsibility for Allen’s pro future. McDermott gets what a privilege it is to lead these men and be a HC in the NFL. 

Excited for the first time in a long time about who we got at QB and where this team is going. 

+1

[Dr. Who]

15 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Not interested in dragging this out, as I am pretty sure we are not going to change each other minds, and that it ok.  Appreciate the civil discussion.  2 questions.

 

Do you think Josh Allen is a better QB then Josh Rosen?

Do you think Josh Allen is better then Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes?  Bills could have picked any of them.

I think Josh Allen is potentially the best of all of them.  It's a risk and he may not reach his potential.  Josh Rosen is more polished and tough, but he has poor pocket awareness and durability concerns.  Pretty sure Rosen has gotten superior coaching over the years.  They could both end up good qbs . . . 

[metzelaars_lives]

21 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Not interested in dragging this out, as I am pretty sure we are not going to change each other minds, and that it ok.  Appreciate the civil discussion.  2 questions.

 

Do you think Josh Allen is a better QB then Josh Rosen?

Do you think Josh Allen is better then Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes?  Bills could have picked any of them.

If I had to win a game tomorrow, I’d most likely go with Rosen.  I like the Allen gamble though.  If you read my OP, I never said I thought he was even the best QB in this draft.  I was really just trying to dispel the idea that he “sucked in college” more than anything else.  But it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he turns out to be insanely good.  I think the way he played in the Senior Bowl was incredibly encouraging as far as a glimpse into what he might look like with legit talent around him.

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

What is reality?

What's reality is that all the teams that were vigorously in pursuit of a qb had Josh Allen high on their board. The Cardinals who drafted Rosen tried to move up and get Josh Allen before we did. They didn't have the ammo to compete with our offer for the right to draft Allen. The notion that is being peddled by many that Allen as a qb prospect is "fools gold" is undercut by the reality that many teams near the top of the board seriously considered him. Especially with qbs there are no guarantees for success. But his chances for success are just as good as any of the other elite prospects. 

[keepthefaith]

3 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Not interested in dragging this out, as I am pretty sure we are not going to change each other minds, and that it ok.  Appreciate the civil discussion.  2 questions.

 

Do you think Josh Allen is a better QB then Josh Rosen?

Do you think Josh Allen is better then Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes?  Bills could have picked any of them.

 

Watson probably played above expectations before he got hurt.  Sample size is pretty small but very good.  Mahomes, too soon to tell  Allen, waaayyy too soon to tell.

 

AJ will be the starter this year and if healthy I predict he will be hard to unseat.  He'll be better than TT. 

Edited April 28, 2018 by keepthefaith

[Chandler#81]

I, too, missed this the 1st go 'round. 'Preciacha, Metz! I'm trusting the process. 

 

signed, Chandler#81 in Tonawanda

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

If I had to win a game tomorrow, I’d most likely go with Rosen.  I like the Allen gamble though.  If you read my OP, I never said I thought he was even the best QB in this draft.  I was really just trying to dispel the idea that he “sucked in college” more than anything else.  But it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he turns out to be insanely good.  I think the way he played in the Senior Bowl was incredibly encouraging as far as a glimpse into what he might look like with legit talent around him.

 

I think you two should fight it out.  In the Thunderdome!!! 

 

btw great posts. 

 

[mannc]

5 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

As far as the numbers, if you think that Rosen or Darnold would’ve put up even better numbers in Wyoming’s 2017 offense than they did in the flag football PAC 12 and that Allen would’ve put up even worse numbers with, say, Oklahoma State, then I suppose I can’t factually prove you wrong but we can agree to disagree.  As far as his 2016 numbers, again, this was a team that went 2-10 the year before and it was his first year as a D1 QB.  I would also direct you to his rushing stats from that year.  Something to consider if you’re comparing them apples to apples.  I can’t overstate what a big part of his game it is.

Another strong post.  Metz, you are killing it in this thread.