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A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

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thanks metz. Allen is the toughest prospect to get a read on, imo. I dont feel great about him. But if Beane traded up to #2, and grabbed Allen, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt.

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

thanks metz. Allen is the toughest prospect to get a read on, imo. I dont feel great about him. But if Beane traded up to #2, and grabbed Allen, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt.

Thank you for reading.

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Just now, metzelaars_lives said:

Thank you for reading.

Good read man!  Not as entertaining as the infinite EJ debates, but I'll take what I can get.

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I don’t want us to draft Josh Allen. Fact

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Thanks for the write up.  If Bills end up selecting him, I will be all aboard. I'm sure Bills are doing their due diligence on these guys, and I know that I will be surprised on Draft night with how it all plays out.

Let's just hope they choose correctly.

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the "no talent around him" argument cuts both ways. He wasn't playing against elite DBs either in the Mountain West

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1 minute ago, jr1 said:

the "no talent around him" argument cuts both ways. He wasn't playing against elite DBs either in the Mountain West

Yes.  But again, he was good in 2016.  A key part of the Josh Allen debate that no one wants to talk about is that 2016 and 2017 were very different seasons.  He was excellent for a first year college QB when he did have talent around him- enough, again, to be named the MWC preseason player of the year.  If he had talent around him last year, his numbers would've gone up again.  He didn't and they didn't.  It's not that hard to understand.  It's not like he got worse at football.

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16 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So I moved to Denver, from Buffalo, in 2002 and almost immediately adopted Wyoming as my college team (pretty much because I think they have the best uniforms in sports).  Anyway I have ramped up my fandom in recent years and, at this point, am a pretty diehard fan.  In short, I have watched every game Josh Allen has played as a college QB.  I have driven up to Laramie to see them/him play four times (three times in 2016 and once last year).  Incidentally, they were 3-1 in those games and he played good to great in all of them.  The win against Boise State (who was undefeated and ranked in the teens at the time) in 2016 was one of the best football games I've ever attended in my life (the greatest comeback against the Oilers obviously being #1).  

 

So this is NOT a Josh Allen excuse thread, nor am I a Josh Allen "fanboy."  And full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around.  

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

 

The 2016 Wyoming squad was loaded with offensive talent.  Literally five of their key offensive players were seniors who played with NFL teams into preseason last year and four are currently on NFL rosters.  That being said, it was Josh Allen's first year as a college QB.  With all of those guys as juniors the previous season, they went 2-10.  With Allen, they ended up 8-6 but were 8-3 before losing a meaningless game against New Mexico and then two nailbiters against San Diego State (MWC Championship game) and BYU (bowl game).  He was very good.  He went from an unheralded JuCo transfer to a guy being thrown around as the #1 pick in this draft halfway through his first college season.  Really ask yourself, Biff, if a guy could do that without being "good."  His completion percentage was lower than you might like but he had a propensity, especially in 2016, to throw the ball downfield A LOT.  For perspective, Brian Hill (now on the Bengals), played most every down, was second in the nation in rushing that year and is a very elusive back.  He had NINE RECEPTIONS ALL SEASON.  Ask yourself, if Hill caught 40 balls and Allen's completion percentage was 66% instead of 56% in 2016, would we even be having that conversation?  Even with his 56% completion percentage, he was named the 2nd team MWC QB (Brett Rypien, Mark's son, had better numbers, but few would argue Allen wasn't a more impactful player that year) as well as the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Not bad for not being good, huh?

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

 

I was on here trying to tell anyone who would listen, prior to the 2017 season, that Josh Allen's numbers would be way down.  It's easy for you, Biff, to call that an excuse but here's a little perspective: he lost his top two running backs, his top two receivers, his tight end and his center (again, four of these guys are in the NFL now).  Their leading rusher went from a guy who finished 2nd in FBS to a freshman who was LITERALLY converted from a linebacker right before the season started.  They struggled a ton on offense in 2017.  Allen's numbers did not impress.  Anyone who follows Wyoming football could've told you that would be the case.  All of their skill position players were unheralded freshmen and sophomores playing their first college football games, save for two guys who played sparingly in 2016 and aren't very good (see: CJ Johnson's drop of a beautiful deep ball for a would-be TD against Iowa in week 1).  So when Biff is on here telling you that Josh Allen struggled against Iowa and Oregon, well, no s***.  Of course he did.  And you know what, as someone who follows the program, his attitude literally could not have been better all last season.  Not once did he even come remotely close to making an excuse for his numbers or complaining about the glaring lack of talent around him.  Oh yeah, Wyoming was 8-3 with Josh Allen in 2017 and 0-2 without him.  Oh yeah part 2, watch his three TD passes from the bowl game against Central Michigan and tell me how many PRO QB's make all three of those throws.

 

 

FACT CHECK: 

 

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

 

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

Go on youtube.com and watch a video of former teammates talking about JaMarcus Russell skipping meetings, being utterly disengaged, eating copious amounts of s****y food to the point where he weighed in at 300 lbs., etc.  Also guessing JaMarcus Russell didn't score a 37 on the wonderlic.  Josh Allen is as good of a teammate and leader as you will find in the college football ranks.

 

 

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Wasn't the 37 he scored on the wonderlic the highest among all the qbs?

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6 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I don’t want us to draft Josh Allen. Fact

Not trying to convert anyone.  Just trying to tell you that if everyone in the football world- scouts, GM's analysts, etc.- likes Josh Allen but you, a fan listening to WGR and calling in on the whiner line, does not, it might be time for you to take a look in the mirror and try and understand why people who know way more about football than you, do like him.

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Good thread.

 

I like 4 QB’s in this draft. Darnold, Allen, Mayfield and Rosen....not in that particular order.

 

Just looking forward to next week so the speculation can be over.

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I have no idea what to think of Allen. Theres a lot that I don't like but his big plays he makes are amazing. What the heck do any of us know? If we pick him, I'm all on board. Weather we get him or not, I hope he succeeds in the NFL as he'd be really fun to watch and I like his story. 

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Seems like a whole lot of opinions masquerading as facts to me.

 

;)

 

 

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Just now, Andy1 said:

I have no idea what to think of Allen. Theres a lot that I don't like but his big plays he makes are amazing. What the heck do any of us know? If we pick him, I'm all on board. Weather we get him or not, I hope he succeeds in the NFL as he'd be really fun to watch and I like his story. 

Yes!  Someone gets it.  I'm not trying to say that I know he's going to be good.  I'm trying to say that none of us know and to the people who are so certain that he's gonna be a bust, I'm really tired of hearing from you because you won't face the music if you are wrong and you will just go blabbering about the next topic.

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Great, great post!! Very informative and a good read!! If we draft him, I'll be a huge fan and will be excited to see him develop. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Blokestradamus said:

Seems like a whole lot of opinions masquerading as facts to me.

 

;)

 

 

What did I say that is debatable?  I realize calling him "elusive" isn't a "fact."  But everything I wrote is accurate.  You are not going to find a more accurate assessment of Josh Allen than what I just posted (also not a fact, I suppose).  

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5 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Not trying to convert anyone.  Just trying to tell you that if everyone in the football world- scouts, GM's analysts, etc.- likes Josh Allen but you, a fan listening to WGR and calling in on the whiner line, does not, it might be time for you to take a look in the mirror and try and understand why people who know way more about football than you, do like him.

  But living in denial that others may know more than those here is soothing like a warm bath on a winter evening for the so-called QB experts.  

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3 minutes ago, elltrain22 said:

Great, great post!! Very informative and a good read!! If we draft him, I'll be a huge fan and will be excited to see him develop. 

 

 

Thanks a lot, I appreciate it!

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I also think our coaching staff would be great at helping Allen become a great QB. 

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On 4/16/2018 at 6:37 PM, metzelaars_lives said:

Full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around. 

 

I am a big fan of facts and trying to cut through the noise.  FWIW, bottom line up front, what I don't like about the Allen hype is the talk of him going #1 overall.  I would say he's probably #3 or #4 QB to me (I would need to watch more Darnold, the QB I've seen the least of).  He's certainly not a 3rd round prospect.  I just see development needs, and I don't see top of the 1st as the place to draft a guy with development needs.  I think Allen would benefit in the NFL from a team that can let him sit for a while. 

 

Quote

FACT CHECK: Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

FACT CHECK: Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

FACT CHECK:  There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

This part I knew.

 

Quote

FACT CHECK: The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

I hadn't seen any comparisons to JaMarcus Russell.  Nor do I have any plans to turn in my Bills fan card even if we trade off this draft and the next to trade up and draft Allen.  I will assume McBeane and Co know what they're doing until it's proven beyond a reasonable doubt that they don't.

 

Quote

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Oooh rooting for the Jets ....that's a stretch.  Well, my name isn't Biff, I am originally from Tonawanda, and while I'm not so sure of myself, I do tend to base what I think more on what I watch and less on media noise or hype.  I think we agree more than we disagree, actually.

 

 

 

Quote

Go Bills!

 

 

 

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really enjoyed this post. glad you did it. He is my number 1 QB. Hoping the Bills draft him. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So I moved to Denver, from Buffalo, in 2002 and almost immediately adopted Wyoming as my college team (pretty much because I think they have the best uniforms in sports).  Anyway I have ramped up my fandom in recent years and, at this point, am a pretty diehard fan.  In short, I have watched every game Josh Allen has played as a college QB.  I have driven up to Laramie to see them/him play four times (three times in 2016 and once last year).  Incidentally, they were 3-1 in those games and he played good to great in all of them.  The win against Boise State (who was undefeated and ranked in the teens at the time) in 2016 was one of the best football games I've ever attended in my life (the greatest comeback against the Oilers obviously being #1).  

 

So this is NOT a Josh Allen excuse thread, nor am I a Josh Allen "fanboy."  And full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around.  

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

 

The 2016 Wyoming squad was loaded with offensive talent.  Literally five of their key offensive players were seniors who played with NFL teams into preseason last year and four are currently on NFL rosters.  That being said, it was Josh Allen's first year as a college QB.  With all of those guys as juniors the previous season, they went 2-10.  With Allen, they ended up 8-6 but were 8-3 before losing a meaningless game against New Mexico and then two nailbiters against San Diego State (MWC Championship game) and BYU (bowl game).  He was very good.  He went from an unheralded JuCo transfer to a guy being thrown around as the #1 pick in this draft halfway through his first college season.  Really ask yourself, Biff, if a guy could do that without being "good."  His completion percentage was lower than you might like but he had a propensity, especially in 2016, to throw the ball downfield A LOT.  For perspective, Brian Hill (now on the Bengals), played most every down, was second in the nation in rushing that year and is a very elusive back.  He had NINE RECEPTIONS ALL SEASON.  Ask yourself, if Hill caught 40 balls and Allen's completion percentage was 66% instead of 56% in 2016, would we even be having that conversation?  Even with his 56% completion percentage, he was named the 2nd team MWC QB (Brett Rypien, Mark's son, had better numbers, but few would argue Allen wasn't a more impactful player that year) as well as the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Not bad for not being good, huh?

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

 

I was on here trying to tell anyone who would listen, prior to the 2017 season, that Josh Allen's numbers would be way down.  It's easy for you, Biff, to call that an excuse but here's a little perspective: he lost his top two running backs, his top two receivers, his tight end and his center (again, four of these guys are in the NFL now).  Their leading rusher went from a guy who finished 2nd in FBS to a freshman who was LITERALLY converted from a linebacker right before the season started.  They struggled a ton on offense in 2017.  Allen's numbers did not impress.  Anyone who follows Wyoming football could've told you that would be the case.  All of their skill position players were unheralded freshmen and sophomores playing their first college football games, save for two guys who played sparingly in 2016 and aren't very good (see: CJ Johnson's drop of a beautiful deep ball for a would-be TD against Iowa in week 1).  So when Biff is on here telling you that Josh Allen struggled against Iowa and Oregon, well, no s***.  Of course he did.  And you know what, as someone who follows the program, his attitude literally could not have been better all last season.  Not once did he even come remotely close to making an excuse for his numbers or complaining about the glaring lack of talent around him.  Oh yeah, Wyoming was 8-3 with Josh Allen in 2017 and 0-2 without him.  Oh yeah part 2, watch his three TD passes from the bowl game against Central Michigan and tell me how many PRO QB's make all three of those throws.

 

 

FACT CHECK: 

 

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

 

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

Go on youtube.com and watch a video of former teammates talking about JaMarcus Russell skipping meetings, being utterly disengaged, eating copious amounts of s****y food to the point where he weighed in at 300 lbs., etc.  Also guessing JaMarcus Russell didn't score a 37 on the wonderlic.  Josh Allen is as good of a teammate and leader as you will find in the college football ranks.

 

 

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

This is a great read and, honestly, it's the first compelling argument for Allen I've read, and that's kind of the point. You set it up as people thinking they are smarter than NFL scouts, analysts, GMs, coaches, and, at least for me, that's not why I'm wary of Allen. I'm well aware that my knowledge base when it comes to football, even having watched since childhood and being into my 40s now, is less than many here, let alone professionals. However, it is precisely the professionals' opinions and the way they talk about him that makes me wary of trading up to get Allen. When they describe him as "what he could be" or "unpolished, but what an arm" or that he looks like a QB, or the manner by which he's rising that rings bells from the past and enough of them to set my hackles up the same way as others who have gone bust in the past. Sometimes it's not the matter of amateurs thinking they no more, but amateurs knowing that sometimes certain professionals will think they know better than everyone else and get too too cute and sometimes they are wrong.

 

The comparisons to Russell have little to do with his attitude, but more with the way sometimes the NFL groupthink can become enamored with one player. Is the comparison unfair? Well, most comparisons are. To be honest, I don't remember having much of an opinion about Russell either way at the time. 

 

In any case, I do agree with the last part. Saying I wouldn't take him in the fifth round or I won't be a fan is dumb. I'd be happy enough with him at 12 or even a small trade-up. If we trade a ton of draft capital and pick him at 2, ahead of two or three QBs I like for my own reasons, some logical, some speculative, I won't quit my fandom or even close, but I will be deflated and disappointed, and might be a little less inclined to trust the process (not like a random fan 400 miles from their home turf is going to impact that anyway). All that being said, I will hope that you are right and root for the guy, and for the defense to play lights out (as it is capable even now--well, once they have a middle linebacker anyway) until he hopefully lives up to his potential. 

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I used to be that Allen hater, but then I watched alot of game film on him. He's raw, and has some definite imperfections, but so do all these qbs. Metz is exactly right about 2016 and 2017 team. They are night and day different, in terms of talent. In 2017, he ran for his life every play, receivers had very little separation, and didn't have hardly any easy throws to make on offense. 

 

For any of the haters, watch him thoroughly, then see if you feel the same. I know I was enlightened 

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As you said yourself, went from a no name juco to the lowest tier of d1 college football. Now after 20 something games he's ready for the NFL? Unfortunately he's not like Josh Rosen who has been groomed since 12 yrs old by the greatest coaches and programs in the country. He has a long way to go to be at that level

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