Peter King:. Monday 4-16-18 column.

[MarlinTheMagician]

We'll see!

Just scuttlebutt from some close to Jet mgt, not saying it can't be wrong, not presented to me as absolute fact.  I believe this happens though.  Note: Jets traded up well before Rosen started his supposed swoon.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

It all depends on the Browns taking Allen with the 1st pick. If Allen does go with the 1st pick I think Darnold and Mayfield are picked right after him. If that happens I think we will stay at 12 and pick BPA.

[MarlinTheMagician]

Kind of agree here - the conversation I had presumed Darnold gone at #1.  And like I said, nature of conversation I had was Jets mgt thinks Rosen would be a good fit, would play well with NY fans etc.  Not suggesting they actually suggested to my pal (or that they would tell anyone), who they are drafting.  

 

Also, this is not connected to team - but a bunch of really focused Giants fans believe they like Darnold.  I have been thinking "maybe we can get to 2, but only if Darnold is not there." 

Cleveland not helping by not revealing who they want.  

[TheBeane]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

With each passing day I am feeling this way more and more as well. I think the problem is that most teams willing to trade down just don't want to trade out of the top 10. I also think we might do something crazy like give up four first round picks to move up to 2 or 4. Or three first round picks just to move up to 6.

With each passing day I'm more and more OK with this.  It would be AMAZING if we can keep most of our picks and STILL get one of those top 4 QBs.  Trading up to 7 - 10 is much more reasonable and still keep the majority of our picks this year to fill holes. 

 

We have many holes still to fill...

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

The top 4 is set

 

CLE-Darnold

NYG-Barkley

NYJ-Mayfield

CLE-Chubbs

 

The action starts with Denver. Do they take Quenton Nelson or do they go with Josh Rosen?

 

Indy, TB, Chicago, SF, Oakland are all potential trade downs

 

 

Not a good sign if we let NYJ and Miami to be more desperate than us for QB.

  Not much we can do about it if Miami wants to gamble the farm twice over.  People here have the mindset that these QB's can be elite and at the same time nobody other than the Bills will have any interest in them.  It does not work that way.  The same with speculating about Denver.  The Broncos do not have a multi-year answer at QB and if Rosen is the player that some here think he is then they would definitely think about taking him at 5 and if they have a higher regard yet then they may choose to jump a few spots to get him.  People spend way too much time here living in fantasy land thinking that they can talk other teams into actions that benefit the Bills more than the other team.  Saying that the Giants will do anything but QB at 2 might make some guy here feel good about life but that does nothing in the real world to control the Giants actions.  There are going to be some bitterly disappointed people here come the end of next week.

1 hour ago, BillsFan17 said:

That's the caveat with Denver, they are only two years removed from taking Paxton in the first. Very few GMs get to draft two first round QBs.

 

I think Elways needs to build that team for a run with that defense. 

  According to quite a few here a team keeps drafting QB until they get it right.  Are these posters starting to admit that they are wrong on that theory?  That you show a bust the door in short order versus giving that player a few years to show something.  Again, Keenum most likely will not be a multi-year answer for the Broncos.  According to some here there is not a QB prospect in view after 2018 so the Broncos had better grab one now before they head into the QB desert.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

If we can get Josh Rosen at #6 and only give up 12, 22, 53 we just won the offseason. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 hours ago, Logic said:

In one sense, I just can't wait for the draft to get here. The anticipation is killing me at this point.

In another sense, the waiting is the most enjoyable part. Once the draft happens, there's a two and a half month void before football starts again. All of this speculation and guessing is fun. ESPECIALLY for this draft. I can't remember a more important, wide open, fun Bills draft season in the past 20 years. 

10 days.

 

 

Logic...spot on, buddy.

[Dr. Who]

7 hours ago, kdiggz said:

As long as Giants don't take a QB we are fine. Mayfield or Rosen at 7 would be amazing value and a high likelihood of getting the best QB in the draft anyhow by default. This actually takes the decision out of their hands so they don't screw it up. By the rumors it sounds like a safer pick than what they might be looking to do by trading up anyhow. If they gave up all of those picks to get to 2 and take a potential bust like Allen I think the fans would have a meltdown

I like Allen and would be fine with it.  I know I'm in the minority.  I do agree Mayfield or Rosen at 7 is both a safer and a less expensive trade up.  

[BillsFan17]

44 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Not much we can do about it if Miami wants to gamble the farm twice over.  People here have the mindset that these QB's can be elite and at the same time nobody other than the Bills will have any interest in them.  It does not work that way.  The same with speculating about Denver.  The Broncos do not have a multi-year answer at QB and if Rosen is the player that some here think he is then they would definitely think about taking him at 5 and if they have a higher regard yet then they may choose to jump a few spots to get him.  People spend way too much time here living in fantasy land thinking that they can talk other teams into actions that benefit the Bills more than the other team.  Saying that the Giants will do anything but QB at 2 might make some guy here feel good about life but that does nothing in the real world to control the Giants actions.  There are going to be some bitterly disappointed people here come the end of next week.

  According to quite a few here a team keeps drafting QB until they get it right.  Are these posters starting to admit that they are wrong on that theory?  That you show a bust the door in short order versus giving that player a few years to show something.  Again, Keenum most likely will not be a multi-year answer for the Broncos.  According to some here there is not a QB prospect in view after 2018 so the Broncos had better grab one now before they head into the QB desert.

My point is there is no telling if Lynch is in fact a total bust just yet. Moreover, who is saying the Broncos dont take a QB in the second or third?

 

All I said was very few GMs get to take two QBs in the first round.

 

I didnt admit to a philosophy being good or bad.

[KDIGGZ]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I like Allen and would be fine with it.  I know I'm in the minority.  I do agree Mayfield or Rosen at 7 is both a safer and a less expensive trade up.  

I would be fine with Allen if he is all that is left for us out of the top 4.  If we traded a bunch of picks to get him at 2 I would be upset.  The reason being that I think he has a long way to go and I don't think we have the structure in place to develop a QB and we don't have a bonified starter to lead us in the meantime.  Mayfield or Rosen at 7 or more pro ready and that would also represent an amazing value.  We would most likely get to keep pick 22 in that scenario

[Dr. Who]

Just now, kdiggz said:

I would be fine with Allen if he is all that is left for us out of the top 4.  If we traded a bunch of picks to get him at 2 I would be upset.  The reason being that I think he has a long way to go and I don't think we have the structure in place to develop a QB and we don't have a bonified starter to lead us in the meantime.  Mayfield or Rosen at 7 or more pro ready and that would also represent an amazing value.  We would most likely get to keep pick 22 in that scenario

Yeah, that's all cogent.  I am willing to gamble more, because I think Allen could be exceptionally good.  The development structure would have to be in place and I think you are right to question whether it is.  I'd also be happy getting Rosen or Mayfield at 7 and keeping 22.

[BillsFan17]

Why? Why do I see "I'd be okay with Allen if.."?

 

Literally the kid is not a first round player. Arm strength and arm talent are two different things and the kid is awfully inaccurate.

 

He was second to dead last in junior college comp % (57th out of 58 qualifiers)and followed up Coffman who completed 63% of his passes in '15, with basically the same roster, with a sub 60% comp.

 

Buffalo under no circumstances should be "okay" with landing Allen.

 

And dont give me the examples of successful QBs from 20 years ago, as if the game hasn't changed since the likes of Favre in college.

Edited April 16, 2018 by BillsFan17

[BillsFan17]

1 hour ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Kind of agree here - the conversation I had presumed Darnold gone at #1.  And like I said, nature of conversation I had was Jets mgt thinks Rosen would be a good fit, would play well with NY fans etc.  Not suggesting they actually suggested to my pal (or that they would tell anyone), who they are drafting.  

 

Also, this is not connected to team - but a bunch of really focused Giants fans believe they like Darnold.  I have been thinking "maybe we can get to 2, but only if Darnold is not there." 

Cleveland not helping by not revealing who they want.  

You did not have a conversation with Jets management. Stop.

[auburnbillsbacker]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I don't buy all this negative press about the QBs.  Some of these GMs are hoping to push some names down the board.

 

For the last 12+ months, all we've been hearing is how ridiculously deep and talented this QB class is.  How it was the best class in years.

Now suddenly, everybody is so "flawed" - their chances of succeeding have plummeted through the floor.

(On a side note, I also find it interesting how flawless of a prospect Carson Wentz has become in hindsight.)

 

Andrew Luck-type prospects come around every 15-20 years.  That is not a valid comparison. 

When you compare these guys to other QB prospects from past years, I find it very unlikely (especially considering the need around the NFL) that we don't see 4 quarterbacks in the Top 10 and at least 5 in the first round.

 

I agree. People had concerns about Goff, Wentz, and Watson as well.  All 3 look like they will have good careers.  

[Chicken Boo]

10 hours ago, greenwithenvy said:

He says he can't find a spot for Rosen in the top 6. Trade with Tampa sounds good to me and a hell of a lot cheaper. 

 

As the draft nears, I'm not seeing it either.  If the Browns take Allen, I think both Darnold and Rosen are going to slide just a bit.

 

Things are shaping up perfectly for us.  Barkley and Chubb are too good to fall out of the top 5 and I have the Jets taking Mayfield and Allen to the Browns.

[Mojo44]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I don't buy all this negative press about the QBs.  Some of these GMs are hoping to push some names down the board.

 

For the last 12+ months, all we've been hearing is how ridiculously deep and talented this QB class is.  How it was the best class in years.

Now suddenly, everybody is so "flawed" - their chances of succeeding have plummeted through the floor.

(On a side note, I also find it interesting how flawless of a prospect Carson Wentz has become in hindsight.)

 

Andrew Luck-type prospects come around every 15-20 years.  That is not a valid comparison. 

When you compare these guys to other QB prospects from past years, I find it very unlikely (especially considering the need around the NFL) that we don't see 4 quarterbacks in the Top 10 and at least 5 in the first round.

 

 I disagree. The flaws of all of these quarterbacks have clearly been noted for a long time. Also, Andrew luck is the ideal benchmark to compare the current crop too. None of them are as a sure thing as he was. This is not 1983. Actually, probably far from it. The odds are that none of these quarterbacks will pan out. But, the bills need one and it’s a calculated risk. I’ll support whatever they do as a fan. However my preference is that they don’t waste drop pigs in trade up on one of these risky prospects.

[MTBill]

I honestly think Beane is playing it by ear somewhat - and planning on something in 4-10.

 

If there is a "cream of the crop" heads above the rest QB in their book, they are likely gone by #3 and I don't see the GIants trading down to 12.  However, I suspect the grading is much more bunched up.  If the Giants want a QB, they are for sure not trading down - so then we can guess 3 are gone by #4.  Then the question is - will Cleveland want to drop to 12 and lose out on the best Non-QB on their board?  Probably not.  So now you are looking at #5.  I really think the Broncos are planning on keeping their Pick either for a top QB prospect or to improve the roster.

 

I really think it comes down not to how much it would take, but that these teams really have to solidify their own teams.  It isn't like some powerhouse is sitting at the top of the draft with no real needs who doesn't mind trading back 5-10 spots.  Everyone needs a star for their team.  I think our targets for a trade are most likely San Francisco & Oakland to get in front of Miami - and to protect ourselves from someone else trying to pass both us AND Miami.  I just hope it won't cost the farm getting there.

 

Things I highly suspect with the Giants - I bet they go after Dez and cut ties with OBJ via trade.  Dez will give them a great deal because he gets to stay in the NFCE and stick it to the Cowboys, and the Giants will cut ties with OBJ who carries a lot of baggage.  I'm sure this affects how they draft etc.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mojo44 said:

 I disagree. The flaws of all of these quarterbacks have clearly been noted for a long time. Also, Andrew luck is the ideal benchmark to compare the current crop too. None of them are as a sure thing as he was. This is not 1983. Actually, probably far from it. The odds are that none of these quarterbacks will pan out. But, the bills need one and it’s a calculated risk. I’ll support whatever they do as a fan. However my preference is that they don’t waste drop pigs in trade up on one of these risky prospects.

 

Agreed.  I think this is a great crop of "decent" QBs, not necessarily franchise QBs.  I could totally be wrong on this, but I do not see a class of QBs like 1983 ever again - 3 HOF QBs in one draft.  Just not very likely to be repeated - even in a pass happy league.

 

EDIT - hehe, your autocorrect busts me up.  Drop Pigs.... 

Edited April 16, 2018 by MTBill

[xRUSHx]

IMO we have to jump Miami no matter what so IMO move up to 6 or 7 now and then see how the draft plays out, if we need to move up more do it otherwise 6 or 7 should be a very safe spot to block Miami if Giants go Barkley/Chubb and Denver is for sure going Nelson or Chubb we should for sure get one of the top 3 QBs. I would hate to see on draft night that Miami moved to 5 or 6 and then Arizona sold the farm to also move up, we end up on the smelly end of the stick stuck at 12. Move up to 6 or 7 now to lock it in to at least that like the Jets made happen for sure get what they covet IMO. This way IMO if Miami goes to the Giants to jump us with a big trade we can give the Giants pick 6 and the farm to trump Miami's move.

22 minutes ago, MTBill said:

 

 

EDIT - hehe, your autocorrect busts me up.  Drop Pigs.... 

Haha, I wonder what he has been searching on the web for it to come up with that, lol

Edited April 16, 2018 by xRUSHx

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

IMO move up to 6 now and then see how the draft plays out, if we need to move up more do it otherwise 6 should be a very safe spot to block Miami if Giants go Barkley/Chubb and Denver is for sure going Nelson or Chubb we should for sure get one of the top 3 QBs. I would hate to see on draft night that Miami moved to 5 or 6 and then Arizona sold the farm to also move up, we end up on the smelly end of the stick stuck at 12. Move up to 6 or 7 now to lock it in to at least that like the Jets made happen for sure get what they covet IMO.

The Bills have the most bounty to offer. GMs looking for a trade down know this,  so I don't think teams around their area code of the draft order should be viewed as a huge threat. A team at 11 or 13 doesn't have the advantage that the Jets did at 6. If MIA or ARZ moves to those slots it's because the Bills didn't want to. 

[xRUSHx]

5 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills have the most bounty to offer. GMs looking for a trade down know this,  so I don't think teams around their area code of the draft order should be viewed as a huge threat. A team at 11 or 13 doesn't have the advantage that the Jets did at 6. If MIA or ARZ moves to those slots it's because the Bills didn't want to. 

Like I said earlier I hope we do not lose out to Miami or Arizona because they were faster to the move then our sleeping GMs have always been. Jets have already shafted us so  for the love of the Bills please no Miami/Arizona sneak in. I know we have the capital but are they as willing to spend as another team is, esspecialy if it is more just to block another team.

Edited April 16, 2018 by xRUSHx