Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks Pre-Draft Conference Call

[thebandit27]

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

For Buffalo to attract talent in FA they need to overspend. 

 

Rookie contracts offer an extremely affordable way to acquire good talent on small contracts for 4-5 years. If you give up a bunch of picks, including multiple first rounds, and whiff on that player, we're looking for a new GM and HC in 2-3 years because the team will be devoid of talent. 

 

We're already lacking elite talent. Shady is old, we have nothing at WR, our top two linemen just retired, nothing at TE behind an aging Clay, no pass rush, and nothing at linebacker. 

 

We can improve with out first and second round picks, but it's unlikely. 

 

Who said that they'd be without 1st and 2nd round picks?

 

That's my exact point: they won't.

 

At worst they have one pick in each of the first 6 rounds this year, 8 picks across rounds 2-7 next year, and a full slate in 2020. Why you insist on misrepresenting the impact on future drafts is quite confusing 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

50% is far greater than 0%.

 

Sure but Allen doesn't have a 50% of succeeding. The bust percentage of QBs drafted out of small schools with poor stats has to be close to 100%. QBs that red shirt their entire rookie years rarely if ever succeed. Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield probably each have a 50/50 shot. Anyone who takes Allen has to expect his bust percentage is a lot higher than your normal top 10 QB. If you're trading the future for a QB you don't pick the "highest ceiling," whatever that means, you pick the highest chance of success.

[CommonCents]

I don't think attracting the talent is the problem. I just don't think you can afford to have the core of your team coming in via FA. As we see year in and year out the most talented FAs break the piggy bank. 

 

I do think if the Bills can somehow get a Rosen or Mayfield at 5 or 7 and limit what they spend moving up the FA money could be important next season. I am certain that if they trade up and whiff and waste 3 first round picks in doing so that FA money won't mean a thing. Go out and find another Mario so you can sell tickets that's about all your going to do and Beane and McD would be toast.

 

I'm not bashing Allen or saying they need a certain QB but if they move up to 2 it HAS to be a hit. I find it odd that your saying that amount of picks wouldn't be the future. Sure they have other assets, everyone does. It would definetly change the future for better or worse depending on the kids ability to play.

[The Jokeman]

47 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's fine if you think that the guy isn't worth the trade, but again I humbly request that you not exaggerate to make your point.

 

Trading 3 picks this year (when they have 6 picks in the top 100) and a pick next year is not 'trading the future' in any sense of the phrase.

 

Trading the future is what the Redskins did to get RG3; they left themselves out of the first round for 2 straight years.  Even if Buffalo gave up both 1sts, a 2nd, their highest 3rd, and next year's 1st, they'd still have a pick in rounds 1-6 this year and picks in rounds 2-7 next year (plus an extra 4 from KC and an extra 7 from Carolina) plus $70M in cap space to improve the roster.

 

There's no practical chance that they mortgage the future.

Imagine if we never had KC's pick because we never traded for it (since it wasn't ours to begin with) and instead drafted White with pick #10. Would you be willing to give up Glenn, pick #22 and a #1 next year for a Rosen or Darnold? I know I would. 

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sure but Allen doesn't have a 50% of succeeding. The bust percentage of QBs drafted out of small schools with poor stats has to be close to 100%. QBs that red shirt their entire rookie years rarely if ever succeed. Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield probably each have a 50/50 shot. Anyone who takes Allen has to expect his bust percentage is a lot higher than your normal top 10 QB. If you're trading the future for a QB you don't pick the "highest ceiling," whatever that means, you pick the highest chance of success.

 

I think Josh Allen is terrible. 

 

You're preaching to the choir. 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Imagine if we never had KC's pick because we never traded for it (since it wasn't ours to begin with) and instead drafted White with pick #10. Would you be willing to give up Glenn, pick #22 and a #1 next year for a Rosen or Darnold? I know I would. 

 

In. A. Heartbeat.

 

[NewEraBills]

To me since I view this as a rebuild get the QB and build from there.  If you have the assets to do it now just do it because what will happen is we will be a team that's meddling in the middle of the pack and not be in a draft position to grab a franchise guy because we'll always win enough.  Just do it now and get it over with.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Imagine if we never had KC's pick because we never traded for it (since it wasn't ours to begin with) and instead drafted White with pick #10. Would you be willing to give up Glenn, pick #22 and a #1 next year for a Rosen or Darnold? I know I would. 

The argument you could be making is if the Bills didn't trade out of the 10 spot last year would they be in a better position if they drafted either Mahomes or Watson? With the qb issue addressed the extra picks accumulated for this year could be used to bolster the roster. If the Bills do secure a qb like Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield in this draft then I'm not complaining about how things worked out. 

[thebandit27]

28 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think Josh Allen is terrible. 

 

You're preaching to the choir. 

 

Earlier today, you replied to me that you'd consider taking Allen in the 3rd or 4th round; do you really mean to tell me that you'd consider taking a "terrible" football player in the middle rounds?

 

That's utterly insane.

 

Or perhaps you're once again overstating things to try to make a point, which I can only figure comes from a place where you don't believe in what you're saying as strongly as you outwardly profess.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It would be a huge gamble for Beane to make, but I'm hoping they instead wind up with Rosen or Darnold.

I would take Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or even Rudolph before Allen. Yes he has great size, strength and can chuck it 90 yards. But bad accuracy and poor reading of defenses will be his demise.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

I would take Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or even Rudolph before Allen. Yes he has great size, strength and can chuck it 90 yards. But bad accuracy and poor reading of defenses will be his demise.

 

I wouldn't take Rudolph before the 3rd round. 

[CamboBill]

12 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So the team will not have ample opportunity to improve next offseason if they make this trade?  Well, suffice to say that I thoroughly disagree, and I don't see how trading assets when you have assets to trade qualifies as giving up the future.

 

 

It's much different because you aren't leaving the first round for the following 2 years and leaving yourself with a single pick in the top 70 in the current draft.  Washington left itself in a position where they had severely limited ability to improve their roster via draft and via FA for 2 consecutive offseasons.  Buffalo won't be limited in this draft year at all, and will offset missing a 1st rounder next year by having 2 additional picks in rounds 2-7 and a ton of cap space.

 

As for good luck building through FA, Cleveland has been an utter disaster, and they've had zero difficulty signing FAs  

 

 

And as I said before, my issue isn't that you don't want to move up for Allen.  The issue is that you are categorizing it as mortgaging the future when it's nothing of the sort.

 

 

 

If we include a next year's #1 or even #2 in any move up, we are mortgaging the future.  That would an extremely foolish thing to do considering this looks like it will be an exceptionally down year for us ... meaning the pick could be top 5 next year.  If they trade next year.s #1, they lose all credibility.

[thebandit27]

59 minutes ago, CamboBill said:

 

If we include a next year's #1 or even #2 in any move up, we are mortgaging the future.  That would an extremely foolish thing to do considering this looks like it will be an exceptionally down year for us ... meaning the pick could be top 5 next year.  If they trade next year.s #1, they lose all credibility.

 

Giving up a single draft pick in a year where the team currently has 9 of them and $70M in cap space amounts to mortgaging the future?

 

Hardly.

 

But perhaps you're correct that continuing the "let's see who nobody else wants and take that guy" strategy the team has employed over the last half century will finally work out for a second time.

[Wayne Cubed]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Giving up a single draft pick in a year where the team currently has 9 of them and $70M in cap space amounts to mortgaging the future?

 

Hardly.

 

But perhaps you're correct that continuing the "let's see who nobody else wants and take that guy" strategy the team has employed over the last half century will finally work out for a second time.

 

I just can’t get to this place where fans use extremes like ‘mortgaging the future’ or ‘giving up the farm’. First off the team/draft isn’t a farm that you sell off and can’t get back. And even if they give up a 1 in 2019, the Bills still have picks in rounds 2-7 AND wouldn’t you know it can draft again in 2020.

 

The hyperboles for trade ups are crazy.

 

Did the Bills mortgage the future with Sammy trade up? I mean they did make the playoffs 3 drafts later... without Sammy on the team. Hardly mortgaged.

[njbuff]

People see Allen as Manuel 2.0.

 

I will trust what they do and if they draft Allen, I will give Allen the same benefit of the doubt I gave Manuel.

 

But I fear that Allen will end up the same as Manuel.

 

i think their guy is Rosen as it has been all along.

 

Cleveland isn’t playing games and will take Darnold number one. The Bills will trade to two and take Rosen, and it might not be as costly as we think.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I just can’t get to this place where fans use extremes like ‘mortgaging the future’ or ‘giving up the farm’. First off the team/draft isn’t a farm that you sell off and can’t get back. And even if they give up a 1 in 2019, the Bills still have picks in rounds 2-7 AND wouldn’t you know it can draft again in 2020.

 

The hyperboles for trade ups are crazy.

 

Did the Bills mortgage the future with Sammy trade up? I mean they did make the playoffs 3 drafts later... without Sammy on the team. Hardly mortgaged.

 

Basically this...I think the anticipation of "which QB will we get?" has driven some folks mad.

 

They have 6 picks in the top 100 of this draft; giving up 4 of them to put themselves in the top 5 (say, 12/22/53/65 just as an example) would still leave them with a pick in each of rounds 2-6 (plus the aforementioned top-5 pick).  Somehow that qualifies as "mortgaging the future" to some folks.

 

Taking it a step further: the team currently has 9 picks in 2019 and will have around $70M in cap space; to think that giving up one of those picks (even, gasp, their 1st rounder) will somehow prevent them from vastly improving the team is misguided.

 

You nailed it Wayne, it's de facto hyperbole.

[What a Tuel]

16 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Sure.  And more than 50% of all 1st round QBs bust. 

 

I'm not trading 3 first round picks plus additional picks for a guy who was just a mediocre college QB with a sub 57% career completion percentage. 

 

This is the Sammy  Watkins argument all over again lol. We are trading 3 first round picks to get to #2 (a first round pick). Which means the end result is losing 2 first round picks.

[billsredneck1]

i myself, am taking pick no.2 out of the equation, at least in my mind because....

gettleman has never traded down out of his pick.

 

he also likes big guys and the giants history is rooted in defensive players. that being said, this is one of my 100 guesses for the 1st 6 picks...

 

1. darnold  dorsey puts his foot down and takes charge....or that will be the story.

2. chubb     the g men get their next strahan and fill the hole left by jpp.

3. rosen     the jets may be dumb, but they ain't stupid.  would love to see them do something like take jackson tho, so i may stand corrected.

4. mayfield  the bills give up 12/22/65 and a 4th next year.  everybody happy.

5. allen        elway gets his next...possible...elway.

6. barkley    luck comes back and they get back in the game.

 

i could sit in one spot and stare at the wall for hours dreaming up 100 different scenarios....actually i've been doing that. i gotta snap out of it.

Edited April 12, 2018 by billsredneck1

[blacklabel]

17 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I get that. 

 

What I don't get is how anyone could stake their job on a guy who only has tools and has shown little evidence that he knows how to use them. 

 

If the Bills trade the farm for Josh Allen, I really don't know how I'm going to handle it. I think he's a long shot at best to ever be a quality NFL QB and to trade our future for a guy like that would drive me off a cliff. 

 

I'm also not sure how I'd feel if they gave up a bunch to move up for Allen. I mean, they'd have to really really love what the kid is capable of and they'd have to be alright with basically sticking their neck out for him if they trade away a bunch of picks. 

 

I do like this front office a lot more than past FO's, so, hopefully they would take their time with him and not rush him into the starting job and immediately start calling him the face of the franchise before he even plays an NFL down. That type of pressure is the kind that can cause an athlete to implode. 

 

Like any player, Allen certainly has the potential. I just believe it's going to take a very unique and specific situation, a specific team of coaches and a very particular approach to unlock that potential. And not for nothing but I really don't feel like David Culley can be that guy. Can Daboll do it? I dunno, maybe. Allen would likely be one of the more talented QBs he would have the chance to work with. 

 

I like McDermott to coach up any player but his expertise is still on the defensive side of the ball. Interested to see his approach with whatever rookie QB they end up with. Whoever it is, I'mma trust that the regime did their homework, had plenty of discussions and all came to the agreement that *Insert 2018 QB Prospect here* is their guy. After that, they can't hesitate and need to pull out all the stops in order to turn the kid into a high level starting QB by 2020 at the latest.