CheshireCT Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 I do get the impression that this year is a strong QB draft year. One thing I've noticed every year is that the media over-exaggerates the QB draft position, projecting them to all go much higher than they end up being drafted in reality. The QBs are the most fun to talk about, and so the media capitalizes on that and hypes up the race to the top to draft QBs. In reality there are other stud players that teams covet who don't play quarterback, and even the teams who need a QB might not like who is available. I'm not suggesting the Bills "settle," but think there's a strong likelihood they can get who they want at 12, or perhaps by trading up a few picks into the 5-10 range. The question is, how many of the prospects do they LOVE? 1? 2? 3? 4? Some QBs that come to mind that were taken out of the top 5 that were considered top prospects: (leaving out the new guys who don't have a track record yet) 2013 - all QBs busted 2012 - #8 Ryan Tannehill 2008 - #18 Joe Flacco 2007 - all QBs busted 2006 - #11 Jay Cutler 2005 - #24 Aaron Rodgers 2004 - #11 Big Ben Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan5121 Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 (edited) 17 minutes ago, CheshireCT said: I do get the impression that this year is a strong QB draft year. One thing I've noticed every year is that the media over-exaggerates the QB draft position, projecting them to all go much higher than they end up being drafted in reality. The QBs are the most fun to talk about, and so the media capitalizes on that and hypes up the race to the top to draft QBs. In reality there are other stud players that teams covet who don't play quarterback, and even the teams who need a QB might not like who is available. I'm not suggesting the Bills "settle," but think there's a strong likelihood they can get who they want at 12, or perhaps by trading up a few picks into the 5-10 range. The question is, how many of the prospects do they LOVE? 1? 2? 3? 4? Some QBs that come to mind that were taken out of the top 5 that were considered top prospects: (leaving out the new guys who don't have a track record yet) 2013 - all QBs busted 2012 - #8 Ryan Tannehill 2008 - #18 Joe Flacco 2007 - all QBs busted 2006 - #11 Jay Cutler 2005 - #24 Aaron Rodgers 2004 - #11 Big Ben All that list shows is we need to move up to get our qb, because it’s been 13 years since a qb outside the top 5 was good (based on your list, I know Wilson wasn’t top 5). An interesting exercise would be to look at all top 5 QBs since 2004, then compare their hit rate compared to QBs from pick 6-32. I’d love to see the discrepancy in those numbers. The top 5 typically within the past decade (maybe better scouting, analytics) produces more hits than busts. Since 2004, top 5 busts would include who? Jamarcus Russell, Bortles?, Bradford? RG3? If Bradford and Bortles are lumped in as the worst, that’s oretty successful. Now look at the other 1st rounders where teams thought they were getting talented QBs with bargain picks. You named Ben and Rodgers who are certainly hits. But then there are the Gabberts, Lockers, Ponders, Losmans of the league. Seems like the proof is there that top 5 QBs don’t typically flame out. They are at minimum (with very few exceptions) longtime starters in this league, even if for multiple teams. I say we take a chance and move up. But that’s me. Basically, my response can be simply stated as this. I don’t want to stay put and draft the next Flacco so we can keep our picks. I want to move up and get our Rodgers or Brady. Theres a lot a talk about all the holes we have to fill. What’s funny to me is when you simply go back to last year, was there a roster in the league with more holes than SF (besides cleveland)? Insert a competent qb, and they go what, 5-0, 6-0? But what happened to all their holes? Edited April 10, 2018 by billsfan5121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheshireCT Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, billsfan5121 said: All that list shows is we need to move up to get our qb, because it’s been 13 years since a qb outside the top 5 was good (based on your list, I know Wilson wasn’t top 5). An interesting exercise would be to look at all top 5 QBs since 2004, then compare their hit rate compared to QBs from pick 6-32. I’d love to see the discrepancy in those numbers. The top 5 typically within the past decade (maybe better scouting, analytics) produces more hits than busts. Since 2004, top 5 busts would include who? Jamarcus Russell, Bortles?, Bradford? RG3? If Bradford and Bortles are lumped in as the worst, that’s oretty successful. Now look at the other 1st rounders where teams thought they were getting talented QBs with bargain picks. You named Ben and Rodgers who are certainly hits. But then there are the Gabberts, Lockers, Ponders, Losmans of the league. Seems like the proof is there that top 5 QBs don’t typically flame out. They are at minimum (with very few exceptions) longtime starters in this league, even if for multiple teams. I say we take a chance and move up. But that’s me. I'm also totally okay with moving up if the confidence is there. In the end, every single draft is different and which player ends up where is situational. The main point I was trying to make is that the media overhypes how high QBs will get drafted. There are lots of busts in the top 5 also. ESPN did a gigantic article about how difficult it is to draft QBs and can analyze this better than I could: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23039883/history-tells-us-nfl-terrible-evaluating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects Looking at the list I made above, one thing to note is the strength of the organizations. Flacco went to a good Raven's team (I know he's not so great lately, but he did well in the beginning), Big Ben went to a great Steelers team, Aaron Rodgers went to a packers team and had a chance to sit behind brett favre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobDVA Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 QB hype, bah humbug! Darnold poor ball security, Rosen made of paper, Mayfield too short too Johnny footballish, Allen can't hit water falling out of a boat Jackson 11 wonderlic score Rudolph poor arm strength. I say move back for picks at 12, take whatever QB is there at 22, plant the crop and pray for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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