Don’t bet the farm on at the QB roulette table

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Where were the manning lead broncos before manning? Where are they now, after him? Picking 5th overall.

 

It takes some mental gymnastics to turn that around to mean that it is best to put QB on the back burner.

 

Anyway I will stop now we will never agree. 

 

  Where were the Broncos before Manning?  Getting key support players.  Where are they now?  Relishing the Lombardi they got a couple of seasons ago while opening a new chapter in their history.

 

  I don't know what to tell you.  If it is not there in the draft then it is not there.  The Broncos would not have their Lombardi if they had acted irrationally as to acquiring a QB at all costs.  That probably would mean no Von Miller among other players.

[Boatdrinks]

Lol build both lines. I can't remember a year where there wasn't an outcry from a portion of the fanbase about improving the Oline. Even during the SB years. It's just ingrained in some Bills fans: you must have a perfect team to win, so build the lines and LBs. Any QB will be ruined behind our OL yadda yadda yadda. The line is fine OP, the QB has been terrible. 

[Lfod]

I think we reached a point that no thought can be original. What you want has most likely been posted and debated on. This is the time to put more effort in posting. 

 

Honestly I don't really care what the GM does as long as it benefits the team. Obviously there is probably going to be "right moves" and "wrong moves". If he makes the right moves great, the Bills will have a respectable GM and HC. 

 

If he doesn't make the right moves then it's only a matter of time before we reset. I would have to imagine our GM knows the moves he makes effects his job and potentially the job of our head coach. 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Sweet. Outside the box thinking that is clearly next level.   It's only been 22 years!

They have tried 17 QB's since then.  https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/11/19/16659056/quarterback-position-buffalo-bills-since-jim-kelly-ryan-fitzpatrick-drew-bledsoe-eh-manuel-tyrod  If you pick in the top 5 you have a 50% success rate. 

6 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

The Patriots have been filling the Bills hole for 20 years now.

 

And by God, I say let's make it 20 more! Or what about forever? Lets just keep being the stupidest most cowardly team out there, forever! Taking chances is for winners, and that is not who we are.

Yep,    lets wait to the 5th round.  (Brady).  Or maybe the 3rd round (Garro).   What will they do this year, with Brady retiring soon? 

• Round 1, Pick 23 (23rd overall) - From Los Angeles Rams*
• Round 1, Pick 31 (31st overall) - Assigned Selection
• Round 2, Pick 11 (43rd overall) - From San Francisco*
• Round 2, Pick 31 (63rd overall) - Assigned Selection
• Round 3, Pick 31 (95th overall) - Assigned Selection
• Round 6, Pick 24 (198th overall) - From Los Angeles Rams*
• Round 6, Pick 36 (210th overall) - From Oakland
• Round 7, Pick 1 (219th overall) - From ClevelandD

Do you want to bet that they trade their first 5 picks for a QB?

[buffalo2218]

9 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

What three first rounders you are talking about????  Most packages I see Bills are giving up 12, 22, and a 2019 pick.  Getting back the 2nd OVERALL.  So where is the 3 first rounders again?

 

And settling at the most important position has worked so well for the Bills

 

You see what Jets are about to do?????  CUT a second tier QB prospect because they went up to go get a TOP END QB prospect

To be fair, I don't think the Bills can get to #2 without both firsts this year and next year's first. Indirectly, the Jokes did the Giants a huge favor moving up to #3. 

 

That being said, I'd still pull the trigger and make the trade anyway. Just because Beane said he'd rather build through the draft doesn't mean he's automatically gonna pass on a top QB when he has the means to acquire one. How would it not be a greater risk to hit every draft pick filling multiple holes than hitting a single pick for the most important hole to fill as you've been saying. 

 

I agree 100% with your assessment 

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

That is the point right there.

First round picks are a gamble. People act like only if you pick a QB are you gambling.

 

If you have to gamble why not gamble on a player who can make a night and day difference?

 

And it doesn't even have to stop with the busts. None of our first round picks, none of them, not one, has made any difference at all in making us a top notch team.

 

But you guys who just want to keep doing the same thing the Bills have done for so long that i am literally growing old watching them do it, I just can't wrap my head around that. Sorry but there is just no way.

 

 

 

^^^^

10 hours ago, Putin said:

It worked great in the past for us didn’t it ? 

We kept drafting CB’s  you can never have enough of those , RB  I don’t want to even go there , DL ( A Maybin ) and OL ( Mike Williams you can’t miss ! Only the QB position is a crapshoot !!  

while Brady year after year whooping our @$$ winning the division and 5  SB’s , 

Now all we need is for the Jets to get their franchise QB and stick to us ( without K-Y ) 

for another decade , 

 

 

 

I just love, absolutely love, the revisionist historians who disguise themselves as Bills fans.  Your ilk constantly pretend that  a) the Bills didn't "bet the farm" trying to get a top notch QB during the drought and that b) not getting a "franchise QB" resulted in the Bills' 17 year playoff drought.  You conveniently ignored the fact in 2002, the Bills traded their 2003 first round pick to acquire QB Drew Bledsoe from NE.  In 2004, the Bills TRADED UP (from the second round back into the first) to take JP Losman.  In 2013, the Bills took EJ Manuel in the first round.

 

Bledsoe wasn't a bust in any sense of the word.  His career stats, including his 2002 season when he set the Bills passing yards record, are border line HOF.  The Bills didn't make the playoffs during his 3 seasons with the Bills because they didn't have a good enough team around him.  Then the Bills FO swapped him out in order to start JP Losman, who was so unready to be the starter in 2005 that he was eventually benched for Kelly Holcomb.

 

After a decent season in 2006, the Bills "brain trust" swapped him out for the cheaper, risk-adverse Trent Edwards, who aside from 5 decent games at the start of 2008 turned out to be an ineffective QB that only an incompetent HC like Dick Jauron could start ahead of even Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

As for Manuel, he was clearly drafted so that the Bills could placate their fans and put butts in the seats by drafting -- and starting -- a first round QB when the future of the franchise was up in the air.  The 2013 QB class simply sucked, and no QB deserved to be taken in the first round.  That's the price that's paid because the Bills had a market "genius" running the team.

 

 

10 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Where were the manning lead broncos before manning? Where are they now, after him? Picking 5th overall.

 

It takes some mental gymnastics to turn that around to mean that it is best to put QB on the back burner.

 

Anyway I will stop now we will never agree. 

 

 

The Broncos drafted Paxton Lynch at #21 in 2016.  He didn't show much as a rookie (neither did Goff nor the 2017 first rounders Trubisky and Mahomes), and he was injured in much of 2017, so the jury is still out on him.  Lynch is likely to be a bust, simply because only about 25% of QBs drafted in the bottom of the first round are successful, but the Broncos trading up to draft him higher wouldn't have changed a single thing about the Broncos to the present except that they would have had fewer rookies in 2017.

Edited April 10, 2018 by SoTier

[SouthNYfan]

Hot take.

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

^^^^

 

I just love, absolutely love, the revisionist historians who disguise themselves as Bills fans.  Your ilk constantly pretend that  a) the Bills didn't "bet the farm" trying to get a top notch QB during the drought and that b) not getting a "franchise QB" resulted in the Bills' 17 year playoff drought.  You conveniently ignored the fact in 2002, the Bills traded their 2003 first round pick to acquire QB Drew Bledsoe from NE.  In 2004, the Bills TRADED UP (from the second round back into the first) to take JP Losman.  In 2013, the Bills took EJ Manuel in the first round....

 

 

 

 

EVERY example you gave is one of the Bills making an easy, lazy, second rate effort at getting a QB. "TRADING" up, oh wow, to take the 4th QB leftover, AFTER using their actual first on a wide receiver. They traded away that years 2nd and 5th, and next years first round pick, to move up to 22 overall, to pick Losman., Instead of just using the 13 overall that they already had. This was a very bad thing to do.  They gave a first round pick to a division rival for a qb they wanted to get rid of(Bledsoe).  And taking EJ Manuel in the first round, because you just needed a qb. They waited 9 YEARS between Losman and EJ.   Then take a 3rd round guy in the first because you didn't plan or prepare.  You just go on believing whatever it was One Bills drive said at the time were the wonderful reasons that did what they did. And then the results of what they did, which the entire football world usually predicted would be bad, also can not penetrate for you. 

 

Not writing or believing that things that stupid people do, doesn't make me a guy who is disguising myself as a Bills fan.

Edited April 10, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[NewEraBills]

11 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Where were the manning lead broncos before manning? Where are they now, after him? Picking 5th overall.

 

It takes some mental gymnastics to turn that around to mean that it is best to put QB on the back burner.

 

Anyway I will stop now we will never agree. 

 

 

Just to open, I'd like to say I'm all for getting a QB.  No doubt about it.  But Manning did not lead the Broncos to that SB victory.  He was on for the ride and made sure the offense did just enough.  Wade Phillips and that defense carried that team.  I believe in getting a QB for us, but I also have to give defenses credit when they are due it and that Broncos defensive unit carried them to a championship.

[ddaryl]

I say window #3

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2018 by ddaryl

[BadLandsMeanie]

5 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Just to open, I'd like to say I'm all for getting a QB.  No doubt about it.  But Manning did not lead the Broncos to that SB victory.  He was on for the ride and made sure the offense did just enough.  Wade Phillips and that defense carried that team.  I believe in getting a QB for us, but I also have to give defenses credit when they are due it and that Broncos defensive unit carried them to a championship.

Agreed. But Manning was good enough to get them to the finish line. That is all he needed to be. And no one else had.

 

Odd that Wade got fired the next year. Wierd world of football.

 

 

[RochesterRob]

49 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Just to open, I'd like to say I'm all for getting a QB.  No doubt about it.  But Manning did not lead the Broncos to that SB victory.  He was on for the ride and made sure the offense did just enough.  Wade Phillips and that defense carried that team.  I believe in getting a QB for us, but I also have to give defenses credit when they are due it and that Broncos defensive unit carried them to a championship.

  Which is an example of pretty much taking the best player regardless of the position most of the time.  Having the best guy available on most of the starting 22 made the difference.  Taking exotic gambles such as trading a boatload of picks for a top 5 QB  would most likely have meant no Thomas, Miller, etc. so the Broncos would have had seasons where the passing game had pretty good stats and maybe an 8-8, 9-7 finish but bounced out early in the playoffs.  But justing getting into the playoffs is good enough for many but not for me.

49 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Agreed. But Manning was good enough to get them to the finish line. That is all he needed to be. And no one else had.

 

Odd that Wade got fired the next year. Wierd world of football.

 

 

  So there is more than one way to cut the cake (win a SB)?

[SoTier]

5 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  So there is more than one way to cut the cake (win a SB)?

 

Apparently not.  Only trading a truckload of high draft picks to gamble on an overhyped collegiate QB will get the Bills close to a Super Bowl ... after all, Philadelphia just did it.

[ddaryl]

12 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Apparently not.  Only trading a truckload of high draft picks to gamble on an overhyped collegiate QB will get the Bills close to a Super Bowl ... after all, Philadelphia just did it.

 

They did trade a boatload for Wentz. I assume by the feel of your post above you think Philly did it all on the back on of backup QB ??

Quote

To move from No. 8 to No. 2 overall last April, the Eagles offered up a first-, third- and a fourth-round pick in 2016, a first-round pick in '17 and a second-round pick in '18 in exchange for the rights to Wentz and a '17 fourth-rounder

 

Is Wentz over hyped  ?  Would Philly have made it to the playoffs without Wentz. I mean he only played 13 games and threw for 33TDs and 3200 yds with only 7 INT's

Edited April 10, 2018 by ddaryl

[Tyrod's friend]

8 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

They did trade a boatload for Wentz. I assume by the feel of your post above you think Philly did it all on the back on of backup QB ??

 

Is Wentz over hyped  ?  Would Philly have made it to the playoffs without Wentz. I mean he only played 13 games and threw for 33TDs and 3200 yds with only 7 INT's

This guy ...
 

Mr. 4th Rounder Passing Statistics for Career Games 2013 to 2014

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		10	9		194	314		2527	20		6									18	124
Per 16 Games		16	14		296	478		3851	30		9									28	188
2013-2014	PHI	21	18	14-4-0	389	628	61.9	5054	40	6.4	12	1.9	68	8.0	8.5	13.0	240.7	100.5		37	247	7.23	7.62	5.6

he couldn't have possibly replaced this guy?
 

Four Draft picks Passing Statistics for Career Games 2016 to 2017

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		14	14		322	524		3539	24		10									30	188
Per 16 Games		16	16		355	578		3905	27		12									34	207
2016-2017	PHI	29	29	18-11-0	644	1047	61.5	7078	49	4.7	21	2.0	73	6.8	6.8	11.0	244.1	88.8		61	375	6.05	6.08	5.5

Those two guys ... you are going to tell me that you can clearly tell the difference and that one of them couldn't have at least approximated the ability of the other?

Honestly? I'm not intending to be a jerk here, but ... isn't it at least a little bit about the team and the OC and the HC in this instance? And, to be fair, here is Fole's first two years so we are comparing two guys just starting out in football:
 

Nick Foles Passing Statistics for Career Games 2012 to 2013

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		10	8		182	291		2295	16		4									24	152
Per 16 Games		16	13		291	466		3672	26		6									38	243
2012-2013	PHI	20	16	9-7-0	364	582	62.5	4590	33	5.7	7	1.2	63	7.9	8.5	12.6	229.5	101.0		48	304	6.80	7.35	7.6

 

I'm not in the Foles fanboy club anymore. Used to be a card carrying member. 

Edited April 10, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[NewEraBills]

If it was not clear prior to Incognito, it is clear to me now.  This is a team in rebuild mode.  It does not matter how they choose to rebuild.  BUT, since this QB class is a deep one it is best to grab that player now than to wait.  All I will say is whoever the starting QB ends up being, I hope he has a big-time insurance policy.  Castillo and company are not going to do him any favors.

Edited April 10, 2018 by NewEraBills

[ddaryl]

9 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

This guy ...
 

Mr. 4th Rounder Passing Statistics for Career Games 2013 to 2014

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		10	9		194	314		2527	20		6									18	124
Per 16 Games		16	14		296	478		3851	30		9									28	188
2013-2014	PHI	21	18	14-4-0	389	628	61.9	5054	40	6.4	12	1.9	68	8.0	8.5	13.0	240.7	100.5		37	247	7.23	7.62	5.6

he couldn't have possibly replaced this guy?
 

Four Draft picks Passing Statistics for Career Games 2016 to 2017

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		14	14		322	524		3539	24		10									30	188
Per 16 Games		16	16		355	578		3905	27		12									34	207
2016-2017	PHI	29	29	18-11-0	644	1047	61.5	7078	49	4.7	21	2.0	73	6.8	6.8	11.0	244.1	88.8		61	375	6.05	6.08	5.5

Those two guys ... you are going to tell me that you can clearly tell the difference and that one of them couldn't have at least approximated the ability of the other?

Honestly? I'm not intending to be a jerk here, but ... isn't it at least a little bit about the team and the OC and the HC in this instance? And, to be fair, here is Fole's first two years so we are comparing two guys just starting out in football:
 

Nick Foles Passing Statistics for Career Games 2012 to 2013

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		10	8		182	291		2295	16		4									24	152
Per 16 Games		16	13		291	466		3672	26		6									38	243
2012-2013	PHI	20	16	9-7-0	364	582	62.5	4590	33	5.7	7	1.2	63	7.9	8.5	12.6	229.5	101.0		48	304	6.80	7.35	7.6

 

I'm not in the Foles fanboy club anymore. Used to be a card carrying member. 

 

 

The fact remains Phily went bold and moved up and got their QB an dused lots of assets  to get there.

 

I really have no idea what you posted here that was supposed to be informative

[Rob's House]

!@#$ the farm. Get a QB now, till soil later.

[Tyrod's friend]

19 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

They did trade a boatload for Wentz. I assume by the feel of your post above you think Philly did it all on the back on of backup QB ??

 

Is Wentz over hyped  ?  Would Philly have made it to the playoffs without Wentz. I mean he only played 13 games and threw for 33TDs and 3200 yds with only 7 INT's

This is what I was referring to; that the Eagles basically make it to the playoffs the minute that Jim Schwartz, Doug Pederson and Frank Reich are put together as a coaching unit. And it's one thing to go up and get Wentz when you have Lane Johnson and Jason Peters covering the outside rush for a rookie QB already in place, not to mention Steve Wisniewski at G. That Wentz, for all intents and purposes, wasn't nearly as important as you'd like to believe. 

 

The implied question behind your point would have been then, could another QB - Nick Foles - taken that team to the playoffs. I don't see anything from their numbers that suggests there is a ton of difference between these two guys. Nick had a better INT % a better TD % around the same YPG and a much better QB rating. In their best season, Foles had a QBR of nearly 84. He replicated that ability in the playoffs, after he had a chance during the regular season to get some rust off. 

I'm not saying they are equal. Just that the combination of a great OC and a great DC put the Iggles in the playoffs, every bit as much as the combination of Wade Phillips and Sean McVay put the Rams in the playoffs, and not Jared Goff.


 

[ddaryl]

14 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

This is what I was referring to; that the Eagles basically make it to the playoffs the minute that Jim Schwartz, Doug Pederson and Frank Reich are put together as a coaching unit. And it's one thing to go up and get Wentz when you have Lane Johnson and Jason Peters covering the outside rush for a rookie QB already in place, not to mention Steve Wisniewski at G. That Wentz, for all intents and purposes, wasn't nearly as important as you'd like to believe. 

 

The implied question behind your point would have been then, could another QB - Nick Foles - taken that team to the playoffs. I don't see anything from their numbers that suggests there is a ton of difference between these two guys. Nick had a better INT % a better TD % around the same YPG and a much better QB rating. In their best season, Foles had a QBR of nearly 84. He replicated that ability in the playoffs, after he had a chance during the regular season to get some rust off. 

I'm not saying they are equal. Just that the combination of a great OC and a great DC put the Iggles in the playoffs, every bit as much as the combination of Wade Phillips and Sean McVay put the Rams in the playoffs, and not Jared Goff.


 

 

 

How many times have we seen great or better than average QB's make the coaches look a lot better than they truly were.. ???

 

I believe we got our Coach.. so go get the qb