Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM John Butler In The Draft? HINT: Pretty Darn Good

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

This is spot on.  Lonnie was inconsistent but that doesn’t change the fact that he was fairly productive at TE for the Bills and that’s a fact

 

Productive with a HoF QB, HoF RB, and HoF OLs out there.

 

I'm not going to be convinced that all these JAGs you have as "hits" because they played ok among an All-Pro cast mean that Butler drafted well.

1 hour ago, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

And then he went to San Diego, and drafted Drew Brees. 

If Ralph weren't so cheap, Smith and Butler wouldn't have left, and that would have been Buffalo selecting Tomlinson and Brees, right at the birth of this QB-friendly era.

 

San Diego had the #1 overall pick that year. Buffalo went to the playoffs. We were never drafting those players regardless of who is at GM.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Ok I get it but take a look at Lonnie’s stats.  3 straight years as starter with almost 50 receptions.  Much better production than Jay Riemersma most seasons and about the same as Charles Clay.  It’s not a home run but overall I’m giving him a hit.

 

Sammy was a close call but I don’t feel he did enough with the Bills....I’m not considering his work on other teams.  It’s based on what he did with the Bills

 

It truly is a crap shoot and success is sometimes all about finding the right fit.  But it’s clear some draft classes are way stronger than others 

Johnson was actually really terrible regardless of how many catches he had.

[NoSaint]

Does it bother you that his percentage dips below Russ Brandon once you correct your math?

[Mango]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

Does it bother you that his percentage dips below Russ Brandon once you correct your math?

 

I mean onbbiously not, his math has Russ Brandon as the greatest GM the Bills have had in 30+ years. 

 

In what world is Sammy Morris a miss...

[BillsVet]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

After a short break - I am back.  It's one of the most talked about threads on the board - Hits and Misses.   This thread will analyze for Bills GM John Butler.  A few reminders about this thread:

 

So far John Butler is the clear favorite over other Buffalo GM's when it comes to the draft.  We will see if Tom Donahoe or Doug Whaley have a higher percentage:

 

1. John Butler - 38%

2. Russ Brandon: 28%

3. Marv Levy: 25%

4. Buddy Nix: 25%

5. Bill Polian: 23%

 

One of the most talked about threads? Sure whatever. 

 

You've ranked Russ Brandon, Marv Levy, and Buddy Nix ahead of Bill Polian?  Sorry dude, not buying it. 

[BuffaloRush]

28 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

One of the most talked about threads? Sure whatever. 

 

You've ranked Russ Brandon, Marv Levy, and Buddy Nix ahead of Bill Polian?  Sorry dude, not buying it. 

 

His percentage is greatly helped by the fact he was GM for just two drafts, and one of those drafts was actually pretty solid.  Polian missed quite a bit, though hit some home runs too.

 

Also remember this is just evaluating the draft, not their entire stint as GM.

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Does it bother you that his percentage dips below Russ Brandon once you correct your math?

Nope it does not... what kind of math are you doing?

41 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I mean onbbiously not, his math has Russ Brandon as the greatest GM the Bills have had in 30+ years. 

 

In what world is Sammy Morris a miss...

 

Sammy Morris = JAG.  Especially when he was a Bill

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Johnson was actually really terrible regardless of how many catches he had.

 

The data says otherwise...

Edited April 10, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[Misterbluesky]

Once again..a GM is only as good or bad as his scouting staff. 

[Ol Dirty B]

47 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

One of the most talked about threads? Sure whatever. 

 

You've ranked Russ Brandon, Marv Levy, and Buddy Nix ahead of Bill Polian?  Sorry dude, not buying it. 

 

The child is delusional. No one cares about these threads, it's just another WGR caller rambling on with an opinion on a subject that means nothing.

 

The hell does it matter if Butler drafted better now retired players than the now retired players donahoe drafted?

Edited April 10, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

His percentage is greatly helped by the fact he was GM for just two drafts, and one of those drafts was actually pretty solid.  Polian missed quite a bit, though hit some home runs too.

 

Also remember this is just evaluating the draft, not their entire stint as GM.

Nope it does not... what kind of math are you doing?

 

Sammy Morris = JAG.  Especially when he was a Bill

 

The data says otherwise...

You said 30 hits and 78 misses 

 

30/108= 27.7%

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

You said 30 hits and 78 misses 

 

30/108= 27.7%

 

No my brother that was an error.  Butler had a total of 78 picks,  He had 30 hits and 48 for a total of 38%.  Butler was an effective GM when it came to the draft

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

His percentage is greatly helped by the fact he was GM for just two drafts, and one of those drafts was actually pretty solid.  Polian missed quite a bit, though hit some home runs too.

 

Also remember this is just evaluating the draft, not their entire stint as GM.

Nope it does not... what kind of math are you doing?

 

Sammy Morris = JAG.  Especially when he was a Bill

 

The data says otherwise...

The data says nothing about his drops, bad routes, and terrible blocking. If a TE is getting 40+ catches in a season and only has an AV of 3 (which happened twice!), that tells you something. He was a physically gifted but deeply flawed player who just happened to play in an offense under Kelly that featured the TE. 

 

Also, if you're not including performances for other teams, you aren't analyzing properly.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The data says nothing about his drops, bad routes, and terrible blocking. If a TE is getting 40+ catches in a season and only has an AV of 3 (which happened twice!), that tells you something. He was a physically gifted but deeply flawed player who just happened to play in an offense under Kelly that featured the TE. 

 

Also, if you're not including performances for other teams, you aren't analyzing properly.

 

Yes I am analyzing performances properly.  It’s all about putting the performance through the lens of their fit and performance for the Bills. 

 

Todd Collins was a QB picked in the 2nd round.  We can agree he was a MISS correct?  But if you look at the season he had for Washington in 2007, does that make him a hit?  Hell no.  

 

Also you clearly had a bias against Lonnie Johnson.  As I said, the numbers show he was a productive player and that can’t be disputed.  Your take that Lonnie underachieved is an opinion, that’s fine.  But don’t try to pass your opinion as it’s a fact.  How do you quantify “terrible blocking” or “bad route?”  You can quantify “drops” but you have chosen not to.  

 

The difference is I have the data to explicitly show that he was a decent TE.  It surprised me.  

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Yes I am analyzing performances properly.  It’s all about putting the performance through the lens of their fit and performance for the Bills. 

 

Todd Collins was a QB picked in the 2nd round.  We can agree he was a MISS correct?  But if you look at the season he had for Washington in 2007, does that make him a hit?  Hell no.  

 

Also you clearly had a bias against Lonnie Johnson.  As I said, the numbers show he was a productive player and that can’t be disputed.  Your take that Lonnie underachieved is an opinion, that’s fine.  But don’t try to pass your opinion as it’s a fact.  How do you quantify “terrible blocking” or “bad route?”  You can quantify “drops” but you have chosen not to.  

 

The difference is I have the data to explicitly show that he was a decent TE.  It surprised me.  

Did you watch the games Johnson played in? I did - all of them. Johnson sucked, and he dropped a LOT of passes. I can't find the stats, but I really do trust my memory on this one. He was a bad blocker too. He was famous for it, actually. Any number of people here who followed the Bills closely in those years will tell you the same thing. The Bills had high hopes for him but he was a MAJOR disappointment. 

 

Also, don't get caught up with catch numbers. As I always say about the NBA, even the worst teams in league history average 80+ points a game, and someone on that team is getting ~20 pts per game. It doesn't mean he's any good. Same goes for tackles in the NFL. *Someone* has to get assigned a tackle on every defensive play. The stat doesn't tell us much about whether a player is good or not, however.  The tackle leaders for the Bills in 2012 were, in order, George Wilson, Nick Barnett, and Kelvin Sheppard. None were any good.

 

And yes, Todd Collins sucked. Terrible outcome for that pick. No argument there.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRush]

50 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Did you watch the games Johnson played in? I did - all of them. Johnson sucked, and he dropped a LOT of passes. I can't find the stats, but I really do trust my memory on this one. He was a bad blocker too. He was famous for it, actually. Any number of people here who followed the Bills closely in those years will tell you the same thing. The Bills had high hopes for him but he was a MAJOR disappointment. 

 

Also, don't get caught up with catch numbers. As I always say about the NBA, even the worst teams in league history average 80+ points a game, and someone on that team is getting ~20 pts per game. It doesn't mean he's any good. Same goes for tackles in the NFL. *Someone* has to get assigned a tackle on every defensive play. The stat doesn't tell us much about whether a player is good or not, however.  The tackle leaders for the Bills in 2012 were, in order, George Wilson, Nick Barnett, and Kelvin Sheppard. None were any good.

 

And yes, Todd Collins sucked. Terrible outcome for that pick. No argument there.

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

[BillsVet]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

 

How old were you in 1994 when Johnson was drafted?

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

Believe what you want to believe about Lonnie Johnson. I wish others who have knowledge would weigh in on this. I have a sneaking suspicion that most would agree with my take. 

 

Perhaps most importantly, did you watch the games he played in? If so, what percentage?  

 

Lonnie Johnson is the wrong hill to die on.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRush]

19 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

How old were you in 1994 when Johnson was drafted?

 

Old enough to know Lonnie was a marginal hit

[Jay_Fixit]

Your “hits” and “misses” are yikes’ing up this place.

[BuffaloRush]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Believe what you want to believe about Lonnie Johnson. I wish others who have knowledge would weigh in on this. I have a sneaking suspicion that most would agree with my take. 

 

Perhaps most importantly, did you watch the games he played in? If so, what percentage?  

 

Lonnie Johnson is the wrong hill to die on.

 

I probably watched almost every game he played in.  Look, I’m not saying that Lonnie Johnson was an All-Pro.  I might have thought he was a bust before digging a little deeper.  

 

Did the Bills have higher hopes for him?  Probably, but when you consider where he was drafted in 1994 and the production that he delivered as a starting TE, I think you can marginally say that the selection was a hit.  

 

Your argument that he was playing with Hall of Fame talent is hollow as well.  Is Brent Jones any less of a TE because he played on a team of HOF’ers?    How about Jay Novacek?  Oh and by the way, Lonnie had more catches that those two did for a few years. 

[Rico]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

What is your analysis of Drew Bledsoe as a Buffalo Bill? Hit or miss.