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Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM John Butler In The Draft? HINT: Pretty Darn Good


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5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Your “hits” and “misses” are yikes’ing up this place.

 

It’s a very popular thread.  Also there’s only 2 more GM left.  Sorry to the old timers....um, I mean experienced members.... I will not be going back to the 1960’s

1 minute ago, Rico said:

What is your analysis of Drew Bledsoe as a Buffalo Bill? Hit or miss. :D

 

Totally different criteria, because draft picks are different entities than assets acquired from trades.  

 

But to answer your question, overall Bledsoe was Miss.  He did have his moments and made one Pro Bowl but I don’t think the Bills got the QB performance that they expected or an appropriate return for the #1 they gave up.   This can be quantified both in individual stats and overall team record.  

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2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Yes I am analyzing performances properly.  It’s all about putting the performance through the lens of their fit and performance for the Bills. 

 

Todd Collins was a QB picked in the 2nd round.  We can agree he was a MISS correct?  But if you look at the season he had for Washington in 2007, does that make him a hit?  Hell no.  

 

Also you clearly had a bias against Lonnie Johnson.  As I said, the numbers show he was a productive player and that can’t be disputed.  Your take that Lonnie underachieved is an opinion, that’s fine.  But don’t try to pass your opinion as it’s a fact.  How do you quantify “terrible blocking” or “bad route?”  You can quantify “drops” but you have chosen not to.  

 

The difference is I have the data to explicitly show that he was a decent TE.  It surprised me.  

https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/136094178/

 

DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE. ROCHESTER. N.Y., SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1996 

Last season, Johnson served as Kelly's personal whipping boy. Johnson made numerous errors running pass patterns, and Kelly never let an occasion pass without pointing out Johnson's gaffe. This year, Johnson thinks he has cut down on the mental errors, and his problems are more physical. "I wish I had an explanation," Johnson said. "All I can say is I didn't get it done. It all goes back to being focused on the ball and watching it coming into my hands." Johnson knows his pass-catching production has to increase in order for the Bills offense to click. "It's a very important position, and if I don't get it done, the offense is not going to go," he said. "It's like having a car with an old battery, it's not going to run smoothly. "I heard someone say the only thing consistent about Lonnie Johnson is his inconsistency. I'm trying to work at the things that I'm supposed to do and do them well so I won't be the loose link in the chain."  Kelly said of his talented but streaky tight end. Johnson thinks the problem has been a lack of practice catching balls. In training camp, Johnson stood in front of a Jugs machine every day and caught at least 100 balls. Once the regular season began, he got away from that drill because he has had to spend more time studying game plans and perfecting his blocking techniques. ''You try to work on all aspects of your game, and I guess I've been working so hard at the blocking, maybe you can say that's why the receiving has decreased," he said. "I'm a guy who has to work hard on catching the ball in order to perform as a receiver, so that's something I need to get back to doing to get out of this slump that I'm in right now." Tight end is a vital position in the Bills offense. When the Bills run their counter plays with Thur-man Thomas, the tight end has to be a good blocker, and Johnson has upgraded his skills. He has had at least two plays where his block was the one that sprung Thomas for a touchdown. "I have made progress at blocking, and I'm beginning to enjoy it a lot more than when I first came here," Johnson said. "I think I can call it a strength of mine." Coach Marv Levy agreed. "He's done a very good job of blocking as our running game has improved," Levy said. "He's done a superior job as a blocker." But in the same breath, Levy added: "He hasn't been as involved in the passing game, however." And that has been a detriment In past years, Kelly has relied heavily on the likes of former tight ends Pete Metzelaars and Keith McKeller and nothing has changed as Kelly has thrown Johnson's way almost as frequently. The difference is that Metzelaars and McKeller rarely let Kelly down. Johnson has made driving Kelly nuts an art form. "Of all the receivers, I'm on Lonnie a little more because I know what he can do," Kelly said of his propensity for directing tirades at Johnson. "The thing is, I can't say too much because he's getting it from all directions, his coach (tight ends coach Don Lawrence), the offensive line coach (Tom Bresnahan) because of blocking, and from me telling him how to run a route. "He's probably getting so much coaching, it's probably driving him crazy. He just needs to concentrate and not worry about anything but catching and running with it"

The scene has become all too familiar, and Buffalo Bills tight end Lonnie Johnson realizes it. Every time Johnson drops a Jim Kelly pass, he shakes his head and points his fingers at himself to let everyone know it was his fault Give credit to Johnson for owning up to a mistake, but Kelly, the coaches and scores of Bills fans would prefer the third-year pro stop worrying about owning up, and just catch the ball. "I would say that I'm in a slump, compared to the way I got started," Johnson said. "At least it feels that way." It looks that way, too. In the first eight games, Johnson caught 31 balls for 292 yards. In the last two, he has more drops (3) than , receptions (2), and was held without a catch by the Philadelphia Eagles. "It concerns me a little bit because I know what Lonnie is capable of. "Buffalo Bills Lonnie Johnson's stats have suffered lately. The third-year pro dropped three balls in last two games. 

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I probably watched almost every game he played in.  Look, I’m not saying that Lonnie Johnson was an All-Pro.  I might have thought he was a bust before digging a little deeper.  

 

Did the Bills have higher hopes for him?  Probably, but when you consider where he was drafted in 1994 and the production that he delivered as a starting TE, I think you can marginally say that the selection was a hit.  

 

Your argument that he was playing with Hall of Fame talent is hollow as well.  Is Brent Jones any less of a TE because he played on a team of HOF’ers?    How about Jay Novacek?  Oh and by the way, Lonnie had more catches that those two did for a few years. 

?? - I never said he was playing with hall of fame talent. You must be confusing me with another poster.

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

It’s a very popular thread.  Also there’s only 2 more GM left.  Sorry to the old timers....um, I mean experienced members.... I will not be going back to the 1960’s

 

Totally different criteria, because draft picks are different entities than assets acquired from trades.  

 

But to answer your question, overall Bledsoe was Miss.  He did have his moments and made one Pro Bowl but I don’t think the Bills got the QB performance that they expected or an appropriate return for the #1 they gave up.   This can be quantified both in individual stats and overall team record.  

If being 38 is an “old timer” then I’ll accept it.

 

I guess it’s better than being a “don’t know what a hit or miss is yet I’ve created multiple threads about the very subject timer.”

 

Lonnie Johnson. Yowza.

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The problem I had with Butler was he was very good at finding talent, either via draft or FA, but he was too much of a players GM and when it came time to re-sign to new contracts he'd often overpay and left a mess behind him regarding salary cap when he left here. According to him everyone was a great player.

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43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/136094178/

 

DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE. ROCHESTER. N.Y., SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1996 

Last season, Johnson served as Kelly's personal whipping boy. Johnson made numerous errors running pass patterns, and Kelly never let an occasion pass without pointing out Johnson's gaffe. This year, Johnson thinks he has cut down on the mental errors, and his problems are more physical. "I wish I had an explanation," Johnson said. "All I can say is I didn't get it done. It all goes back to being focused on the ball and watching it coming into my hands." Johnson knows his pass-catching production has to increase in order for the Bills offense to click. "It's a very important position, and if I don't get it done, the offense is not going to go," he said. "It's like having a car with an old battery, it's not going to run smoothly. "I heard someone say the only thing consistent about Lonnie Johnson is his inconsistency. I'm trying to work at the things that I'm supposed to do and do them well so I won't be the loose link in the chain."  Kelly said of his talented but streaky tight end. Johnson thinks the problem has been a lack of practice catching balls. In training camp, Johnson stood in front of a Jugs machine every day and caught at least 100 balls. Once the regular season began, he got away from that drill because he has had to spend more time studying game plans and perfecting his blocking techniques. ''You try to work on all aspects of your game, and I guess I've been working so hard at the blocking, maybe you can say that's why the receiving has decreased," he said. "I'm a guy who has to work hard on catching the ball in order to perform as a receiver, so that's something I need to get back to doing to get out of this slump that I'm in right now." Tight end is a vital position in the Bills offense. When the Bills run their counter plays with Thur-man Thomas, the tight end has to be a good blocker, and Johnson has upgraded his skills. He has had at least two plays where his block was the one that sprung Thomas for a touchdown. "I have made progress at blocking, and I'm beginning to enjoy it a lot more than when I first came here," Johnson said. "I think I can call it a strength of mine." Coach Marv Levy agreed. "He's done a very good job of blocking as our running game has improved," Levy said. "He's done a superior job as a blocker." But in the same breath, Levy added: "He hasn't been as involved in the passing game, however." And that has been a detriment In past years, Kelly has relied heavily on the likes of former tight ends Pete Metzelaars and Keith McKeller and nothing has changed as Kelly has thrown Johnson's way almost as frequently. The difference is that Metzelaars and McKeller rarely let Kelly down. Johnson has made driving Kelly nuts an art form. "Of all the receivers, I'm on Lonnie a little more because I know what he can do," Kelly said of his propensity for directing tirades at Johnson. "The thing is, I can't say too much because he's getting it from all directions, his coach (tight ends coach Don Lawrence), the offensive line coach (Tom Bresnahan) because of blocking, and from me telling him how to run a route. "He's probably getting so much coaching, it's probably driving him crazy. He just needs to concentrate and not worry about anything but catching and running with it"

The scene has become all too familiar, and Buffalo Bills tight end Lonnie Johnson realizes it. Every time Johnson drops a Jim Kelly pass, he shakes his head and points his fingers at himself to let everyone know it was his fault Give credit to Johnson for owning up to a mistake, but Kelly, the coaches and scores of Bills fans would prefer the third-year pro stop worrying about owning up, and just catch the ball. "I would say that I'm in a slump, compared to the way I got started," Johnson said. "At least it feels that way." It looks that way, too. In the first eight games, Johnson caught 31 balls for 292 yards. In the last two, he has more drops (3) than , receptions (2), and was held without a catch by the Philadelphia Eagles. "It concerns me a little bit because I know what Lonnie is capable of. "Buffalo Bills Lonnie Johnson's stats have suffered lately. The third-year pro dropped three balls in last two games. 

?? - I never said he was playing with hall of fame talent. You must be confusing me with another poster.

 

Like I said, Lonnie is not a perfect player but when you look at his production as a TE that was taken in round 2, I would say that he is a passable hit.

37 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The problem I had with Butler was he was very good at finding talent, either via draft or FA, but he was too much of a players GM and when it came time to re-sign to new contracts he'd often overpay and left a mess behind him regarding salary cap when he left here. According to him everyone was a great player.

 

Who is “him?”  Are you referring to me?

 

i don’t disagree with what you wrote about Butler but this is only rating him on the job he did with the draft.  You said Butler did a good job so we are in agreement.  

 

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Like I said, Lonnie is not a perfect player but when you look at his production as a TE that was taken in round 2, I would say that he is a passable hit.

 

Who is “him?”  Are you referring to me?

 

i don’t disagree with what you wrote about Butler but this is only rating him on the job he did with the draft.  You said Butler did a good job so we are in agreement.  

 

Incidentally, I think that Butler was a good GM. There are a lot of weird things that go unmentioned in all of this.  Butler desperately wanted Leeland McElroy in 1996, but he had to settle for Eric Moulds!

 

In 2000, he had every intention of drafting Ahmad Plummer - a fantastic CB until he got hurt (back issues) a couple of years into his career - but SF snatched him right before the Bills picked. In the second round, he really liked Mike Brown and Deon Grant and was champing at the bit to draft either of them in that order. Unfortunately, Brown went at 39 and Grant went one pick before he took Tillman. He drafted Tillman for need, figuring that a guy who was a 4th-5th round talent was the only decent safety left and that he had to grab him or lose out altogether.  Grant played for 12 years and won a SB ring with the Giants in 2011. Change it around slightly, and it ends up looking pretty good. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Old enough to know Lonnie was a marginal hit

 

You won't answer because it doesn't support your "evaluation." What, 10? 5?

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

It’s a very popular thread.  Also there’s only 2 more GM left.  Sorry to the old timers....um, I mean experienced members.... I will not be going back to the 1960’s

 

Your thread is one of many that will be forgotten. Drop the ego dude. There are many other posters who are more knowledgeable than you and your analysis isn't sound.

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28 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

You won't answer because it doesn't support your "evaluation." What, 10? 5?

 

 

Your thread is one of many that will be forgotten. Drop the ego dude. There are many other posters who are more knowledgeable than you and your analysis isn't sound.

 

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

53 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Incidentally, I think that Butler was a good GM. There are a lot of weird things that go unmentioned in all of this.  Butler desperately wanted Leeland McElroy in 1996, but he had to settle for Eric Moulds!

 

In 2000, he had every intention of drafting Ahmad Plummer - a fantastic CB until he got hurt (back issues) a couple of years into his career - but SF snatched him right before the Bills picked. In the second round, he really liked Mike Brown and Deon Grant and was champing at the bit to draft either of them in that order. Unfortunately, Brown went at 39 and Grant went one pick before he took Tillman. He drafted Tillman for need, figuring that a guy who was a 4th-5th round talent was the only decent safety left and that he had to grab him or lose out altogether.  Grant played for 12 years and won a SB ring with the Giants in 2011. Change it around slightly, and it ends up looking pretty good. 

 

Interesting I didn’t realize this.  He could

have used a hit in the 2000 draft because it’s one of the worst Bills drafts of all time.  

 

Aside from that Butler was pretty consistent in the draft.  You could argue that overall he was more effective than Bill Polian, who missed quite frequently.  Polian has much bigger hits and even a couple HOF’ers on his resume.  

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

 

I'm going to ask one more time: how old were you when Lonnie Johnson was drafted?

 

If your opinion on these draft picks is based on personal observation and stats, well, people can disagree. If your perspective is based on a pro football reference search, then your "evaluation" isn't all that in-depth.

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

 

Interesting I didn’t realize this.  He could

have used a hit in the 2000 draft because it’s one of the worst Bills drafts of all time.  

 

Aside from that Butler was pretty consistent in the draft.  You could argue that overall he was more effective than Bill Polian, who missed quite frequently.  Polian has much bigger hits and even a couple HOF’ers on his resume.  

Butler had some bad luck in 2000, plain and simple. He was the guy who scouted and really pushed for Thurman Thomas, by the way.

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

 

After GM’s, I think you should move on to QB analysis. I think EJ was worse than JP,  but I want to be sure.

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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Butler had some bad luck in 2000, plain and simple. He was the guy who scouted and really pushed for Thurman Thomas, by the way.

 

So a good talent evaluator but not a great team builder or cap manager. Hmmm...

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

Your argument that he was playing with Hall of Fame talent is hollow as well.  Is Brent Jones any less of a TE because he played on a team of HOF’ers?    How about Jay Novacek?  Oh and by the way, Lonnie had more catches that those two did for a few years. 

 

That was me. And if you cant tell the difference between Brent Jones/Jay Novacek and Lonnie Johnson, then that again proves your player analysis is way off.

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43 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

So a good talent evaluator but not a great team builder or cap manager. Hmmm...

 

That was me. And if you cant tell the difference between Brent Jones/Jay Novacek and Lonnie Johnson, then that again proves your player analysis is way off.

 

I can tell a huge difference.  They were better by a million times - how’s that for analysis!?!?

 

what I’m saying is production is production.  Lonnie was not the best but he was productive enough to warrant his value as a 2nd round pick.  

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He was so good in previous drafts to his final one that I've always believed he knew he was leaving and intentionally threw the draft...the picks make no sense based on his prior track record...turned out to be one of the worst drafts in Bills history top to bottom...

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21 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

It truly is a crap shoot and success is sometimes all about finding the right fit.  But it’s clear some draft classes are way stronger than others 

Yes, there have always been outliers. Like the Steelers' draft in 1974, for instance. But over the course of history, the success/failure rates of drafts for every team is very similar. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Like I said, Lonnie is not a perfect player but when you look at his production as a TE that was taken in round 2, I would say that he is a passable hit.

 

Who is “him?”  Are you referring to me?

 

i don’t disagree with what you wrote about Butler but this is only rating him on the job he did with the draft.  You said Butler did a good job so we are in agreement.  

 

 

"Him"  is Butler himself, too often overpaid.  Admittedly he became GM at the beginning of the FA period, so likely alot of feeling out the process and probably very few knew the long term affect of things like getting in cap trouble.  At that point was still early enough  in the era you could keep pushing overspending down the road and by the time it caught up, he was gone to the west coast.

 

But yes do agree he did good job with the draft

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40 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

"Him"  is Butler himself, too often overpaid.  Admittedly he became GM at the beginning of the FA period, so likely alot of feeling out the process and probably very few knew the long term affect of things like getting in cap trouble.  At that point was still early enough  in the era you could keep pushing overspending down the road and by the time it caught up, he was gone to the west coast.

 

But yes do agree he did good job with the draft

 

Ok yeah I do agree.  Butler was really bad with managing the salary cap.  

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