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Aaron Schatz: 2018 QB Boom and Bust Projections with QBASE


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7 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Glad we're talking again. Seriously. I apologize for cursing and trolling. I just have a strong opinion on the matter; I absolutely live for the emotional rollercoaster every Bills season and the fun narratives and discussion on this board. I clown around in the offseason, and don't want to clown around for over a year. I want to talk about our favorite Bills stories and whatnot.

Totally understand. To me the mediocre seasons feel like 3 win seasons anyhow. As big of a fan as I am there have been years with JP, Trent, and Fitz where I didn't even watch the games. I like QB's and not having one kills me. Maybe they get one but it's going to cost a ton of picks. No I'm not a fan of trading up but if that's what we have to do to get someone then that is the situation we now find ourselves in.

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13 minutes ago, dezertbill said:

I agree about Mayfield.  Felt all off season he is the best prospect next to Darnold

 

Then you wouldn't agree with the article, if you think he's the "best prospect next to darnold" then you don't think he's #1, you think darnold is, but the article says Mayfield is #1

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1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Keeping in mind that these ratings do not factor rushing in at all, which obviously hurts Lamar the most.

 

The overall rankings are:

 

1. Baker Mayfield (4th highest they've had dating back to 1997, behind only Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb)

2. Lamar Jackson

3. Josh Rosen

4. Sam Darnold

5. Mason Rudolph

6. Luke Falk

7. Kyle Lauletta

8. Josh Allen

like I've said stay clear of Allen

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Just now, kdiggz said:

Totally understand. To me the mediocre seasons feel like 3 win seasons anyhow. As big of a fan as I am there have been years with JP, Trent, and Fitz where I didn't even watch the games. I like QB's and not having one kills me. Maybe they get one but it's going to cost a ton of picks. No I'm not a fan of trading up but if that's what we have to do to get someone then that is the situation we now find ourselves in.

I guess I'm pretty apathetic at the QB position in regards to my enjoyment watching the game. Love seeing freak athlete plays rather than a QB methodically hitting open receivers. Don't get me wrong, I want that QB but a game dogging it out with freak plays, Hughes making a clutch sack strip to seal the game, Tre White intercepting over Gronk, Shady dancing, Robert Woods double run blocking safeties for a Shady run.. that's my enjoyment of the game, so long as we win. I've been crusading about getting a freak WR cause I love circus catches. That said I'm young enough where my first experience was crying as a kid watching the music city miracle so I don't really know what good QB play looks like lol.

 

Counterpoint: Browns Bills 6-3 with Derek Anderson like 2 for 20 was horrible to watch.

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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

like I've said stay clear of Allen

couldnt agree more. He is going to fall out of the first round. Big arm and size is literally all he has. Slow at progressions, not a great football IQ, lack of touch. 

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Allen is EJ Manuel.  Looks good in a uniform, some physical ability, but he's just not a good QB.  You have to fool yourself into believing he's going to be a completely different QB at the NFL, it's just not a likely outcome.

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I honestly don't care if we trade up or draft a QB at 12, anyone of the eight listed are capable of being a franchise quarterback. Whoever it is, I want them to come into preseason with some swagger, with some confidence, and to act like a damn leader. This is a playoff team. They need someone out front to let the league and the rest of the world know that they are going to take that next step.

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Mayfield is the only player in 15 years to post a college QBR Rating above 90 in back to back years. 

 

The only players to surpass that mark:

 

  • Andrew Luck
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Sam Bradford
  • Cam Newton
  • Russell Wilson
  • Jameis Winston
  • Johnny Manziel

Mayfield is going to be a really good pro. 

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I just keep seeing things about Lamar Jackson coming up short in allot of areas and higher ups and GMs really not taking him seriously as a QB. Apparently his mother is Representing him and telling him not to run the 40 at  his pro day as well which just seems stupid to me. I have watched multiple Louisville games and it always seemed when the competition was good he struggled. Where as Deshaun Watson would rise to the occasion. Saw him always trying to make the big play and rarely checking down. He did keep his eyes down field when rolling out. Missed allot of throws though. Many have said his mechanics need allot of work and his accuracy just isn't there. I know someone will show a highlight reel of all the throws he can make, I'm just not sold mostly because I am continually reading things calling him a huge project. Mayfield's height scares me, but I love his gamer mentality very Phillip Rivers like minus the height. Rosen has poise and great mechanics as well as accuracy absolutely love this guy. Darnold has great creativity, but again seems to always try to hit the home run instead of live to play another day. Allen is raw with a cannon could be great could be terrible only time will tell. Rudolph can probably be a solid QB in the right system I don't see him being a superstar.

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2 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

Apparently his mother is Representing him and telling him not to run the 40 at  his pro day as well which just seems stupid to me.

I've been struggling with this as well. 

It's his decision, but why forego an agent? They know the process, the teams, the front office personnel, etc. etc. 

 

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1 minute ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I've been struggling with this as well. 

It's his decision, but why forego an agent? They know the process, the teams, the front office personnel, etc. etc. 

 

We all know he can run. What we don't know is how he measures up against the other QBs. I get it he doesn't want to be key holed into being just a running QB but at some time you have to flash the goods. Am I Right?

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2 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

We all know he can run. What we don't know is how he measures up against the other QBs. I get it he doesn't want to be key holed into being just a running QB but at some time you have to flash the goods. Am I Right?

 

Yes, he's fast on game tape, but an agent would tell him to run. 

It's an asset, and in these workouts, you can reinforce that to teams. 

His mother may have his best interests at heart, but this is the wrong time and place to be managing your sons business. Hire a professional. 

 

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

There is so much evidence for Baker Mayfield being the number one QB it's ridiculous  that he is not. Just add TWO INCHES and it not even a discussion.

I'm starting to agree. Tape don't lie, and I think he's got all the other QB prospects beat there. 

Look at Russel Wilson's scouting report. The pros are all there "Can make every throw", "commands offense", "playmaker", "arm strength". The con was that he was short. 

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On 3/23/2018 at 12:53 PM, Coach Tuesday said:

I keep saying it - Mayfield is on his way to a Hall of Fame career.

 

And we will be dumb if we don't try to get him.

 

Walking on to Texas Tech and beating out all those QBs and then saying to yourself , "I'm better than this" and doing the exact same thing at Oklahoma says all you need to know about the man.

 

 

 

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On March 23, 2018 at 12:59 PM, oldmanfan said:

And they may all stink, may all be great, or may all be average.  Or some combination of these.  Which is why I just chuckle at these kinds of threads and posts

The notion that it is all 100% unpredictable and up to the football gods to decide is absurd.

 

The knuckle heads running NFL teams need to improve their QB selection criteria.

 

 

 

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