formerlyofCtown Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said: This is like.....what difference does it make? Gold? Silver? Bronze? They are all medals! Or more than one is gold but also not everybody gets gold wedding bands. Just as long as we have a successful marriage its good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 46 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: On the whole I agree with much of what you've said elsewhere ... but if that was all it took, to get 1 overall, then yes. Because if you are right, you are doubly right. You not only get that ONE guy at that ONE position, you also deny him to your divisional opponent and get presumably the next gen for your division at the time the Big Dawg is seeing a setting sun. With another 3 second round picks and coming off the second best 2017 draft, not to mention $100MM in cap space in 2019 ... it's playing chess instead of checkers. But only, only to take the first QB off the docks. Its too much to pay for a 6' QB that grabs his crotch at #4 or #5. I Guarantee that would get you #1 but no one is going to give that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedboy7 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 3 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said: Taylor was never a legitimate starter in Buffalo. And really the only ones that can make sense of their draft board and if a jump is needed are the Bills. All depends on who they value the most. If they want Rosen and on their board he's far and away the best...yes trade up. If they have someone like Mayfield high they can see how the draft plays out and make a smaller jump possibly. If they have Lamar Jackson high they can sit at 12 and likely get him while keeping all their picks. Whatever they decide to do one thing is certain. More people than not on here will complain and say it was a stupid move while half hoping the guy selected fails so they can keep crying out how they are so smart. Point blank, period. So he started games illegitimately? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 48 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: I wish the draftniks would break down the QB by round results more thoughtfully than they do. For one example is there any difference between results when a team takes a QB at 1 or 2 or 3 because they paid a kings ransom to get there, and those who just were at the that slot based on their record. The challenge with this is that any data before 2011 is of limited use. That is the year the rookie wage scale came into being, before then your top 10 QB would also become one of the highest paid players in the league. It increased the risk of drafting a QB, you could end up spending 10% of your cap space on a QB who flunked out of the league 4 years before his guanteed contract ended. The rookie wage scale has made QBs more desirable as top draft picks, that is why we have seen more teams trading up into the top spots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 hours ago, Shaw66 said: I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 24 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Everything is for sale for the right price. Cleaveland has pick #4. They can give up #1 if they don't value the QB's the same as other teams. They also traded for TT (I'm assuming as a bridge QB but you never know). The Giants could end up with 3-5 extra picks in the first 3 rounds and possibly a pick or 2 next year if the bills decided to throw everything at them. That's why they wouldn't sit tight at 2. They could basically get a new set of starters for a QB that will probably not even play unless he's lights out. If Eli is the problem and they don't replace him, they stockpile picks and can throw him under the bus in 2 years while they sit on a top pick next year and have another #1 pick to compliment him if we go that route. It was a comment after the draft, not during or before. Again, I remember hearing it on the radio and don't know exactly when it happened but it was after Whaley was gone. Whaley was the GM during the draft. you don't make the decision to trade down after the draft has already happened. McD made the decision to trade down and get a QB and Pegs supported it. Whaley liked Watson and Trubisky. He wanted to trade up for Trubisky. I think Pegs took one look at Watkins and went with McD. Whaley had to go because he was not on the same page as McD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Let’s say the Bills rank players on a 100 point scale. Let’s say they have the top QBs rated as 93, 91,91, 87,87. They have to ask what is the lowest number they would accept, what is the highest they could get and then get one that falls between those two points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, nedboy7 said: So he started games illegitimately? Of of the definitions if illegitimate happens to be "not in accordance with accepted standards" I would say 186 yards and just under a TD a game last year you be below the accepted standard...so yes. He started games illegitimately. I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Lurker said: Street and Smith was nowhere as near as good as PFW. It was just a compilation of content from NFL beat reporters (i.e., Larry Felser-types). PFW, on the other hand, had the all-time GOAT of draftnicks, Joel Buchsbaum--who was nearly on par with scouts/personnel evaluators in terms of the amount of film work he did. Boy, I miss his draft guide, which I devoured every year around this time... , Oh man I agree and probably why I put so much into each players draft grade even if it's from the NFL network now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Batman1876 said: The challenge with this is that any data before 2011 is of limited use. That is the year the rookie wage scale came into being, before then your top 10 QB would also become one of the highest paid players in the league. It increased the risk of drafting a QB, you could end up spending 10% of your cap space on a QB who flunked out of the league 4 years before his guanteed contract ended. The rookie wage scale has made QBs more desirable as top draft picks, that is why we have seen more teams trading up into the top spots. Thank you Batman 2 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said: I don't think there's enough of a sample to make a conclusion. Really the game changed in 2012 with the rookie cap change, and from where I sit, you're a bit nuts to draw any conclusions about 2 years of football. I mean ... does anyone here know if Watson or Wentz are going to return 100%? Wentz is a violent player and not every big QB gets to play as long as Big Ben. Mahomes hasn't thrown a truly meaningful pass yet. So you have 2012-2015. Call back in 2021 and I think you can make a decision. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 (edited) They aren't looking for the best QB? Of course they are and that's a big reason why they accumulated so much draft capital. 2018 is the time for them to get their guy. Edited March 23, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said: Whaley was the GM during the draft. you don't make the decision to trade down after the draft has already happened. McD made the decision to trade down and get a QB and Pegs supported it. Whaley liked Watson and Trubisky. He wanted to trade up for Trubisky. I think Pegs took one look at Watkins and went with McD. Whaley had to go because he was not on the same page as McD. It wasn't just Whaley that went as it was him and the entire Buffalo Bills scouting staff. I heard stories about how bad those guys were at their jobs. I think they were all going to be fired long before the draft and it just made no sense to fire them until draft after the draft. I also don't think McD trusted them to properly evaluate QB talent after EJ. Plus, he might have wanted to see if he could make things work with Tyrod Taylor. On another note, this FO looks like they want Josh Rosen. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/josh_rosen_to_the_buffalo_bills_is_what_ive_heard_repeatedly_says_eric_galko.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, jmc12290 said: Legitimate starters mean guys like Taylor. There's ABSOLUTELY sense in trading up to take which QB you believe has the best chance of franchisedom. Point blank, period. Im not sure how you can tell a guy what he means to say. Especially when he uses an example of several guys that are better than Tyrod. ignoring that - it’s a basic draft principal if targeting needs. You group guys into tiers and get the last guy in the tier that’s on the board before the cliff and next ledge. Taking the first guy in the tier - worst value. Taking the last - best value. as with any pick, you have to generally have your evaluations right for the premise to hold. Edited March 23, 2018 by NoSaint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Im not sure how you can tell a guy what he means to say. Especially when he uses an example of several guys that are better than Tyrod. ignoring that - it’s a basic draft principal if targeting needs. You group guys into tiers and get the last guy in the tier that’s on the board before the cliff and next ledge. Taking the first guy in the tier - worst value. Taking the last - best value. as with any pick, you have to generally have your evaluations right for the premise to hold. I think it's unlikely that 3-4 HoFers are in the class. Some might be really good. Some might be okay. Some might be fringe guys. I find that a more likely scenario. You tier guys for sure, but if someone is in a tier all on their own, that's the guy I want. Edited March 23, 2018 by jmc12290 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 minute ago, jmc12290 said: I think it's unlikely that 3-4 HoFers are in the class. Some might be really good. Some might be okay. Some might be fringe guys. I find that a more likely scenario. You tier guys for sure, but if someone is in a tier all on their own, that's the guy I want. I agree there are not likely 4 franchise guys, but the example he used was that great class. He clearly wasn’t saying get a Tyrod type. Also agree that if one stands alone- let’s go get him (even if unlikely, try) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RollBillsRoll Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 couple questions... 1) do teams look at the draft positions and returning players of teams in their divisions, And does it play into draft strategy? 2) if most on here believe the wr Corp and oline will be subpar, is there a qb in the draft good enough to nullify that? Didn't Eli threaten to sit out a year if the chargers drafted him because the supporting cast was not good enough? 3) how far ahead do teams look when planning draftees? Bama has a phenom sophomore, as does georgia, another great sophomore just transferred from Georgia to Washington. I'm sure several other college teams have potential Josh Rosens on their roster. Does that play into a draft strategies this far in advance? This draft strategy is some interesting stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills11 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 7 hours ago, Shaw66 said: I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. Thats usually the case to an extent when trading up for quarterbacks..youre trying to determine how far you need to go to acquire a prospect..when the redskins went up to the 2 they did it because they were fine with luck or rg3...im assuming its why the jets are comfortable at 3..because im sure they would love to take darnold but even if hes not there they feel they can get josh allen or mayfield at 3 cus im not sure theyre looking at rosen because of his off the field and political musings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said: Beane wasn't the GM. From what I read Whaley wanted a QB. He really liked Trubisky but McD vetoed it. Good. He blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 7 hours ago, Nihilarian said: It wasn't just Whaley that went as it was him and the entire Buffalo Bills scouting staff. I heard stories about how bad those guys were at their jobs. I think they were all going to be fired long before the draft and it just made no sense to fire them until draft after the draft. I also don't think McD trusted them to properly evaluate QB talent after EJ. Plus, he might have wanted to see if he could make things work with Tyrod Taylor. On another note, this FO looks like they want Josh Rosen. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/josh_rosen_to_the_buffalo_bills_is_what_ive_heard_repeatedly_says_eric_galko.html They got a lot of good players for being bad at their job. 6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Good. He blows A Patriot guy then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 (edited) 14 hours ago, Shaw66 said: The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. While I agree with the main point, I have to disagree with your use of the words "legitimate starters." They need more than that. Tyrod was a legitimate starter for us if that's what we wanted. Slightly below average but top 32. You need better than that. You need a guy in the top ten or twelve QBs. If one or two guys are there, you think, it's very much worth trading up even if the cost is exorbitant, over getting a legitimate starter. Edited March 23, 2018 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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