KingRex Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Right now, the conventional wisdom is that there is gonna be a massive run on QBs. I doubt it. The QB situation objectively (from my point of view) that there are 4 likely first round QB choices (Darnold. Bell, Rosen, Mayfield- I think in that order) but possibly 6 1st round choices if there is an actual run like the first three picks all being QBs. However, none of the top 2, (or likely top 3 and maybe even the top 4) have separated themselves like Andrew Luck did so any of these four choices are credible picks wherever they land in the first. My GUESS is: 1- Cleveland desperately needs a QB. However, they got burned badly with the psychodrama surrounding so many hopes and drama being laid on their last first round QB choice. They also have the # 4 and actually the likely #1 Darnold is not so far above Bell |or eventually Rosen or Mayfield) that they will still get one of the top 4 at #4 guaranteed and actually if they can trade down a position in exchange for extra 2s (or even an extra 1 in some cases) they can have their cake (lets say Barkley, Bell. and a high pick if trading works out well. 2. NYG- Barkley looks like the likely choice but quite frankly Eli will be lucky to survive this season. I would not be surprised to see a QB pick here. 3. Jets- QB need and likely takes one after giving up the farm to move up 4. Cleveland finally fills their QB need with whoever is left from the top 3 picks. 5-On a reactive crapshoot beyond anyone's rational ability to pick because of the reality of wildcards like trade. So what does this mean for the Bills? My guess is that McD and the braintrust are unlikely to believe in anyone to be willing to bet the farm on them. None (and I mean NONE of the top 4-6 QB are so certain to make the difference this year that odds are the Bills stand pat with their 6 picks the first three rounds. They atr likely to get 4 or more 1st year starters from the first 6 choices and this goes a long way to fulfilling the PROCESS as McD builds HIS team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) Here's one way that you absolutely DON'T make a decision on a QB. You DON'T say, "He's not so certain to make a difference this year that we won't ..." You just don't. What he does this year is of little consequence. It'd be great if he (whoever he is) plays terrific this year but if he instead sits for a year but is terrific three years on, that's a win and a huge one. Edited March 22, 2018 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Bell? You mean Allen? Everyone needs to come to terms with the fact that Beane will make his decision once he has completely evaluated each guy. Arguments can be made for and against each guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Who is Bell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Bell? You mean Allen? Everyone needs to come to terms with the fact that Beane will make his decision once he has completely evaluated each guy. Arguments can be made for and against each guy. Oops yep its early (late). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Here's one way that you absolutely DON'T make a decision on a QB. You DON'T say, "He's not so certain to make a difference this year that we won't ..." You just don't. What he does this year is of little consequence. It'd be great if he (whoever he is) plays terrific this year but if he instead sits for a year but is terrific three years on, that's a win and a huge one. I think the decision that the braintrust is making is actually what picks continue THE PROCESS. That's actually why I really doubt the Bills will give up their much valued draft treasure trove to move up into the top 2 to get a QB. My sense is that THE PROCESS demands that the Bills continue to develop their winning ethic. I think this almost certainly demands that the TEAM NOT trade away their valuable draft resources to move up to #2 (or even #1) to get Darnold or Bell who almost certainly will need to take some snaps and make some learning mistakes even if they develop into good or great pros. I think the simple fact is that its really impossible to count on any one player (even the best QB and any of the 4 highest rated QB prospects this year) to guarantee or even be likely to continue THE PROCESS of building a winning ethic here. I think given the age of our roster and actually the high level of success which must be achieve in order to continue THE PROCESS after we ended the playoff drought, this draft DEMANDS that we use our 6 early draft picks to produce at least 4 first year starters. I just don'i see McD and Beane taking the risk (actually accepting the likelihood) that if we trade up to get one QB we are actually forcing this one player to lead us to 9 wins or that player will be responsible for us taking a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, KingRex said: I think the decision that the braintrust is making is actually what picks continue THE PROCESS. That's actually why I really doubt the Bills will give up their much valued draft treasure trove to move up into the top 2 to get a QB. My sense is that THE PROCESS demands that the Bills continue to develop their winning ethic. I think this almost certainly demands that the TEAM NOT trade away their valuable draft resources to move up to #2 (or even #1) to get Darnold or Bell who almost certainly will need to take some snaps and make some learning mistakes even if they develop into good or great pros. I think the simple fact is that its really impossible to count on any one player (even the best QB and any of the 4 highest rated QB prospects this year) to guarantee or even be likely to continue THE PROCESS of building a winning ethic here. I think given the age of our roster and actually the high level of success which must be achieve in order to continue THE PROCESS after we ended the playoff drought, this draft DEMANDS that we use our 6 early draft picks to produce at least 4 first year starters. I just don'i see McD and Beane taking the risk (actually accepting the likelihood) that if we trade up to get one QB we are actually forcing this one player to lead us to 9 wins or that player will be responsible for us taking a step back. Well, that's one guess. But there's no evidence of any kind whatsoever that says that you're correctly understanding what they mean by the process. And it's nonsense to put the responsibility for that much on one player. You can bet the brain trust won't do that. Wins and losses are team stats. If they do draft a QB there'll be no "forcing." If there's one thing that's not part of the process, "forcing" something to do something it can't do would be an excellent example. There's a very decent chance that even if we trade up we'll be seeing McCarron for a year or so. They've made it as clear as can be that their goal is long-term, to build a team that consistently is in play for titles. Another thing you don't do in the "process" is sabotage your long-term goals for short-term gain. Edited March 22, 2018 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, KingRex said: Right now, the conventional wisdom is that there is gonna be a massive run on QBs. I doubt it. The QB situation objectively (from my point of view) that there are 4 likely first round QB choices (Darnold. Bell, Rosen, Mayfield- I think in that order) but possibly 6 1st round choices if there is an actual run like the first three picks all being QBs. However, none of the top 2, (or likely top 3 and maybe even the top 4) have separated themselves like Andrew Luck did so any of these four choices are credible picks wherever they land in the first. My GUESS is: 1- Cleveland desperately needs a QB. However, they got burned badly with the psychodrama surrounding so many hopes and drama being laid on their last first round QB choice. They also have the # 4 and actually the likely #1 Darnold is not so far above Bell |or eventually Rosen or Mayfield) that they will still get one of the top 4 at #4 guaranteed and actually if they can trade down a position in exchange for extra 2s (or even an extra 1 in some cases) they can have their cake (lets say Barkley, Bell. and a high pick if trading works out well. 2. NYG- Barkley looks like the likely choice but quite frankly Eli will be lucky to survive this season. I would not be surprised to see a QB pick here. 3. Jets- QB need and likely takes one after giving up the farm to move up 4. Cleveland finally fills their QB need with whoever is left from the top 3 picks. 5-On a reactive crapshoot beyond anyone's rational ability to pick because of the reality of wildcards like trade. So what does this mean for the Bills? My guess is that McD and the braintrust are unlikely to believe in anyone to be willing to bet the farm on them. None (and I mean NONE of the top 4-6 QB are so certain to make the difference this year that odds are the Bills stand pat with their 6 picks the first three rounds. They atr likely to get 4 or more 1st year starters from the first 6 choices and this goes a long way to fulfilling the PROCESS as McD builds HIS team. If the browns have an equal grade on the top 4 QBs then they should trade the top pick for a huge price. If not, they need to take the QB they like most at 1 or trade down to 2 or 3, dependent on how many QBs they think are the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 You lost me at Bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 IMO, the one thing that is "certain" about this draft is that, each day leading up to it, there will be at least 10 posters on this board who each feel the first thought in his/her head about the QB prospects deserves its own thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobilz Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Bell is money 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said: And it's nonsense to put the responsibility for that much on one player. You can bet the brain trust won't do that. Wins and losses are team stats. If they do draft a QB there'll be no "forcing." If there's one thing that's not part of the process, "forcing" something to do something it can't do would be an excellent example. There's a very decent chance that even if we trade up we'll be seeing McCarron for a year or so. I agree its nonsense to put that responsibility on one player. However, I guarantee that if the Bills were to trade up and draft Darnold, either Josh or Mayfield, it would be a matter of seconds (if that long) until the local media, and a loud segment of the fanbase looking for their vision of the next Jim Kelly would immediately put that pressure on that one player. Even if this player did not start, it would only take until the first loss under that QB that the call would start to play the draftee. In fact, even though the demand for immediate positive results would be totally logically counter to the fact that the team would have to give up the market rate of at least 3 #2s and this new "franchise" QB would be operating without us filling a # of holes because we traded our draft resources. Exactly the case you make is why it would likely be a football stupid move to trade up to draft a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 If they trade up to say 1 or 2 it is a calculated gamble in that, if you were to go just by pure talent at a given position, these QBs would fall behind guys like the guard from ND, the back from PennState, the DE from NC state, and so on. The only reason the QBs will go high is because of the perceived importance of the position. So you draft and hope. The only thing certain about any NFL draft is the uncertainty of the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, KingRex said: I agree its nonsense to put that responsibility on one player. However, I guarantee that if the Bills were to trade up and draft Darnold, either Josh or Mayfield, it would be a matter of seconds (if that long) until the local media, and a loud segment of the fanbase looking for their vision of the next Jim Kelly would immediately put that pressure on that one player. Even if this player did not start, it would only take until the first loss under that QB that the call would start to play the draftee. In fact, even though the demand for immediate positive results would be totally logically counter to the fact that the team would have to give up the market rate of at least 3 #2s and this new "franchise" QB would be operating without us filling a # of holes because we traded our draft resources. Exactly the case you make is why it would likely be a football stupid move to trade up to draft a QB. I suppose there would be a few buttheads in the media. But most of them are smart enough to give time. Plenty of idiot fans would go crazy, maybe. Not most, but plenty. And all of that means .... absolutely nothing. Yeah, some buttheads would call for the new guy. Who cares? Most people get it. Things take time. You seem to assume that the minute the fans start yelling that McD is going to give in and put the guy on the field even if it's not in his best interest. There is absolutely zero reason to think so. McD has done exactly what he wants to do when he wants to do it. He has not worried about fan opinion. He has done what he thinks is best for the football team. Expect him to continue to do so. The last thing in the world that you want to do ... further back than raising botflies in your bedroom ... further back than staring at the sun for the whole length of an eclipse ... further back than mortgaging your house to buy scratch-off tickets ... further back than having sex when you're in a horror movie and then going outside alone ... further back than all those things is making decisions because some fans may get upset in the short term. No, man. This would be the opposite of a football stupid move. There are a few, but they're outweighed by the good reasons to do it. Edited March 22, 2018 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: If they trade up to say 1 or 2 it is a calculated gamble in that, if you were to go just by pure talent at a given position, these QBs would fall behind guys like the guard from ND, the back from PennState, the DE from NC state, and so on. The only reason the QBs will go high is because of the perceived importance of the position. So you draft and hope. The only thing certain about any NFL draft is the uncertainty of the process. Its important to understand and acknowledge also that a highly rated QB in the draft is perceived to be important not only because of good football reasoning but also be cause of hype selling a product. In fact, most of the highly drafted QBs are perceived as franchise QB not because they really are good, but experience has shown us mostly these players (JP, RJ, Ryan Leaf, etc are there because of the hype. To me this is why it makes far more sense to follow the Pitts model where Big Ben is drafted to be your franchise QB after you build your TEAM rather than draft your "franchise" QB first and build around him. 2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: I suppose there would be a few buttheads in the media. But most of them are smart enough to give time. Plenty of idiot fans would go crazy, maybe. And all of that means .... absolutely nothing. Yeah, some buttheads would call for the new guy. Who cares? Most people get it. Things take time. You seem to assume that the minute the fans start yelling that McD is going to give in and put the guy on the field even if it's not in his best interest. There is absolutely zero reason to think so. McD has done exactly what he wants to do when he wants to do it. He has not worried about fan opinion. He has done what he thinks is best for the football team. Expect him to continue to do so. The last thing in the world that you want to do ... further back than raising botflies in your bedroom ... further back than staring at the sun for the whole length of an eclipse ... further back than mortgaging your house to buy scratch-off tickets ... further back than having sex when you're in a horror movie and then going outside alone ... further back than all those things is making decisions because fans may get upset in the short term. No, man. This would be the opposite of a football stupid move. There are a few, but they're outweighed by the good reasons to do it. Ask Nathan Peterman about the current Bills braintrust being smart enough to give players time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, KingRex said: To me this is why it makes far more sense to follow the Pitts model where Big Ben is drafted to be your franchise QB after you build your TEAM rather than draft your "franchise" QB first and build around him. The Buddy Nix plan! The problem is by the time he had "built his team" and was ready to slot in his franchise Quarterback he was faced with the worst crop of draft QBs in memory. The chances to get Franchise level Quarterbacks in the draft are limited.... when you get one you should do it rather than wait until the time is perfect for you because there might not be a guy there. The bills had a chance at #10 last year and they punted..... I understand some of the reasons why they punted and one of them was because they saw this class as providing them a great opportunity to find their guy. To punt again would not only be a bad move.... it would be downright negligent. Brandon Beane is very smart. He knows in this job you either get a Quarterback or you get fired. The Bills are not punting. They are still trying to trade up further and they are focussing in on getting their guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: The chances to get Franchise level Quarterbacks in the draft are limited.... when you get one you should do it rather than wait until the time is perfect for you because there might not be a guy there. The bills had a chance at #10 last year and they punted..... I understand some of the reasons why they punted and one of them was because they saw this class as providing them a great opportunity to find their guy. To punt again would not only be a bad move.... it would be downright negligent. Brandon Beane is very smart. He knows in this job you either get a Quarterback or you get fired. The Bills are not punting. They are still trying to trade up further and they are focussing in on getting their guy. WHO is the franchise QB we should go after and what case do you make? In the end the key factor is who do you choose. I simply do not see any of the likely top QB picks (Darnold or the two Joshes ) as being drop dead sure talents or even being likely to be a franchise pick. No one makes the claim they are Peyton Manning or even Andrew Luck quality (and we all see the results of putting all your eggs in that one basket). Even worse you are endorsing not simply anointing one of these three, but do so at a significant cost of our amassed draft resources. Our roster is great for ending the playoff drought, but they are not only one of the older rosters, but as we saw with the surprising loss of Cook and the sudden problems of Zay Jones that we definitely need depth or we are sending this alleged franchise QB with little more than his jockstrap to protect him. The Big Ben model or even the Eli Manning model makes a lot more sense to me than the Ryan Leaf model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, oldmanfan said: If they trade up to say 1 or 2 it is a calculated gamble in that, if you were to go just by pure talent at a given position, these QBs would fall behind guys like the guard from ND, the back from PennState, the DE from NC state, and so on. The only reason the QBs will go high is because of the perceived importance of the position. So you draft and hope. The only thing certain about any NFL draft is the uncertainty of the process. .....at least the dates are certain......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The only thing certain about this draft is that it will happen and players will be chosen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Josh Bell is lying about his name. Character issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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