Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[Nihilarian]

On ‎3‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 7:35 AM, LEBills said:

 

I endorse Josh, but this does not mean he doesn’t have things to work on. Keeping that in mind...

 

Allen was lightly recruited out of high school. He played QB at his rural town in California but also spent much of the year playing basketball and baseball. That is, when he wasn’t helping his family lay irrigation pipes on his farm. Unlike most of the other QBs in this draft, he did not go through the QB camp circuit. Allen went into college as a player who was not developed.

 

Allen was spurned by his favorite team, Fresno State (along with every other major school) and so decided to take a year at JUCO. After which, he sent his highlight tape around to all the Div-1 schools. For whatever reason, Wyoming was the only school to offer him a scholarship as a QB.

 

Josh came to WYO in Coach Bohl’s second year on the job. Coach Bohl coached North Dakota State where he had another big QB named Carson Wentz. Both Wentz and Allen had issues with their footwork coming out of college. Bohl is not a good QB developer, but pretty good at picking late blooming QBs. 

 

Wyoming was bad for Bohl’s first two years until a sophomore QB named Josh Allen entered the starting lineup. Wyoming went from out of bowl contention to 8 wins, with a shot at the conference crown after knocking off perennial power Boise St. in the regular season. (WYO would lose the championship game).

 

Allen returned for his junior year with a much younger team. More was put on Allen to make things happen, to call protections and be an overall leader of the team. Allen struggled early against Div1 opponents but dragged Wyoming to several wins. Then, as Wyoming felt the team was starting to gel, Allen went down with an injury. Wyoming proceeded to lose its next two games, including to San Jose St, one of the worst teams in Div1 that year.

 

Allen returned and led Wyoming to a win in its bowl game. Next, Allen went to the Senior Bowl and was up and down in practice before doing well in the game. Allen then went to the combine and displayed his great arm, much better mechanics (after only a few months of good training from a QB coach) and was described by scouts as the alpha of the quarterbacks there. We will get to see Allen at his pro day on Friday to see if his throwing continues to take a Cam Newton pre draft trajectory with all the work he has put in.

 

Allen is a ball of clay that will not reach his potential - if at all - for a few years. And that is scary.

 

I believe in the kid as I think he is just being taught how to play the QB position right. We saw what Wentz was able to do with excellent coaching and Allen has that same work ethic.

 

His completion percentage in college was not good. Some of that was on Allen, some on his system and some on his supporting cast. But Allen was WYOs offense last year. His arm made it very tough for defenses as they had to cover the entire field at all times.

 

With Allen, it is all projection. Some don’t have the stomach for it at such a premium position. But unlike some other big arm QB duds, Allen has a great work ethic, is a fiery competitor and is a good person.

 

It’d be nice to take him later and develop but for QBs with that skill set and personality, sometimes you have to draft high and expect that your coaching will reap the rewards it did for Philly with Wentz...que tl;dr

Excellent post kinda wasted on Bills fans who have already made up their minds because they have read that no QB can succeed with accuracy issues and Allen has had accuracy issues in College. 

 

Nevermind the fact that he only played two years at Wyoming and so many, many, many college QB's improved their accuracy after the first two years. Almost every big name QB out there in the history of the NFL improved their completion percentage over time spent playing.

 

This kid was made to play for Buffalo big, strong, tough blue-collar type and some team is going to get a really good QB if they allow him some time to develop. 

 

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Allen was 6.7 ypa this season, although he was 8.3 the year before.

Allen had a 12.2 YPA in the senior bowl with better talent around him then he had at Wyoming. He went 9 of 13 for 158 yards, 2 TDs and he showed both accuracy and touch in that game. 

 

Probably why a lot of scouts, draft sites have elevated the kid to the #1 QB in this year's draft. Don't be surprised if he goes #1 to Cleveland or #2 to the Giants.

[Tyrod's friend]

20 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Excellent post kinda wasted on Bills fans who have already made up their minds because they have read that no QB can succeed with accuracy issues and Allen has had accuracy issues in College. 

 

Nevermind the fact that he only played two years at Wyoming and so many, many, many college QB's improved their accuracy after the first two years. Almost every big name QB out there in the history of the NFL improved their completion percentage over time spent playing.

 

This kid was made to play for Buffalo big, strong, tough blue-collar type and some team is going to get a really good QB if they allow him some time to develop. 

 

Really? I dare you to come up with some names. Because most QBs do not change their completion percentage much at all. Just as an example, the third best QB in the history of the league had his best completion percentage in his first year, and wasn't able to get it back that high for 12 years. In my lifetime, Dan Marino had a one year wonder in his second season. But that's all it was; the rest of his life he completed roughly the same percent his entire career. Jimbo - Kelly had a two year jump, but it was system related. Brees, system change, but his career within various systems was remarkably consistent in his entire career. The only reason Peyton jumped was because the team was 3-13, but after that his completion percentage was remarkably consistent. 

It's just bull. It's things fans like to tell themselves. As Mantle once said, "Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach." Big name QBs have the ability or they aren't big name.

[jrober38]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

This doesn't get any more true regardless of how often it's repeated...

 

Dan Marino - 59.4% career passer

Jim Kelly - 60.1% career passer

John Elway - 56.9% career passer

 

You want to say it's more important in today's game?  Fine, go ahead.  Let's stop trotting out false narratives like "every elite QB was pinpoint accurate", "guys below 60% in college don't make it in the NFL", and "accuracy never takes a big jump from college to the NFL", because every single one of those is simply untrue.

 

Completion percentage and accuracy aren't the same thing. 

 

Also those guys were all in college over 30 years ago. Football has changed dramatically since then. 

[GreggTX]

You're just going to have to wait 2-3 years to see how he does.

[Misterbluesky]

On 3/22/2018 at 7:20 AM, r00tabaga said:

He won't be there at #12 but if he was I think they take him. He killed at the Senior Bowl week and has loads of talent. Accuracy issues aside, he is "built" for Buffalo weather. 

I love his quick release...and yes he is built to play on a snowbelt team.Give him a year to get his accuracy better..him at 12 would be fine with me.

[The Frankish Reich]

22 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Completion percentage and accuracy aren't the same thing. 

 

Also those guys were all in college over 30 years ago. Football has changed dramatically since then. 

Right. I'm no Josh Allen scouting expert, but I probably saw more of him the last couple seasons than most people simply because I live in the region. My impression: Wyoming didn't throw a ton of 5 yard slants and screens, the kinds of things that pump up a QBs completion percentage. And as many have said, he lost a lot of offensive talent on the Wyoming team after his junior year. I'm not a huge Allen fan, but there's a perfectly good case to be made that he has the highest upside of any QB in this draft even if he's clearly not the most NFL-ready on Day One of training camp.

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Really? I dare you to come up with some names. Because most QBs do not change their completion percentage much at all. Just as an example, the third best QB in the history of the league had his best completion percentage in his first year, and wasn't able to get it back that high for 12 years. In my lifetime, Dan Marino had a one year wonder in his second season. But that's all it was; the rest of his life he completed roughly the same percent his entire career. Jimbo - Kelly had a two year jump, but it was system related. Brees, system change, but his career within various systems was remarkably consistent in his entire career. The only reason Peyton jumped was because the team was 3-13, but after that his completion percentage was remarkably consistent. 

It's just bull. It's things fans like to tell themselves. As Mantle once said, "Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach." Big name QBs have the ability or they aren't big name.

4

Joe Montana, @ ND 42.4-52.4-54.2. Then in the NFL went from 56.5 to as high as 71.4 and averaged 63.2 over his career.

 

Brett Favre, @  Southern Miss, 40.7-55.8-54.1-55.4. Then in the NFL went right to 64.1 and averaged 62.0.

 

Eli Manning, @ Ols Miss, 48.5-63.5-58.0-62.4. then in the NFL 48.2 in his first season and his career average is only 59.8. Most years he was above 60%. 

 

Russell Wilson, @ NC State, 54.5-59.3-58.4-72.8. then in the NFL his stats went to 64.1 and he averages 64.0.

 

EDIT: looking at the name I figured I'd add Tyrod Taylor, @ VT, 53.7-57.2-56.0-59.7. Averaging NFL Comp% is 62.4%

 

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right. I'm no Josh Allen scouting expert, but I probably saw more of him the last couple seasons than most people simply because I live in the region. My impression: Wyoming didn't throw a ton of 5 yard slants and screens, the kinds of things that pump up a QBs completion percentage. And as many have said, he lost a lot of offensive talent on the Wyoming team after his junior year. I'm not a huge Allen fan, but there's a perfectly good case to be made that he has the highest upside of any QB in this draft even if he's clearly not the most NFL-ready on Day One of training camp.

Exactly, this kid played in a pro-style offense which is tougher to play in and his throws were not short dump offs or screens. When you read what opposing coaches complained about when setting up a game plan against Wyoming's offense you get a better understanding of what this kid can do with his arm. 

 

Allen basically carried that team with his arm and they went 8-5 with no run game, a bad line, and rookie receivers. Allen didn't have the talent of a big-name coaching staff and elite players that guys like Rosen and Darnold had. One of Rosen's receivers had over 1200 yards receiving alone. Rosen's teams lost their bowl games and Darnold looked lost against Ohio St. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Tyrod's friend]

11 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Joe Montana, @ ND 42.4-52.4-54.2. Then in the NFL went from 56.5 to as high as 71.4 and averaged 63.2 over his career.

 

Brett Favre, @  Southern Miss, 40.7-55.8-54.1-55.4. Then in the NFL went right to 64.1 and averaged 62.0.

 

Eli Manning, @ Ols Miss, 48.5-63.5-58.0-62.4. then in the NFL 48.2 in his first season and his career average is only 59.8. Most years he was above 60%. 

 

Russell Wilson, @ NC State, 54.5-59.3-58.4-72.8. then in the NFL his stats went to 64.1 and he averages 64.0.

 

This was a nice try, but short.


Manning, Wilson, Favre - not one of them improved in the pros.

In fact, Favre regressed after his first pro year. 

I don't know what t f you are talking about with Eli; his last year in college he posted 62 and he really hasn't been at 62 for his career.

Wilson makes my case for me, not you. 

If you do not demonstrate an ability to complete passes in college, it is nearly impossible for you to learn that ability. You CERTAINLY will never suddenly leapfrog what you do in the first two years. Completing passes is something that is remarkably consistent. If you've been looking at profootball, and you are suggesting this is not true, then you are being deliberately obtuse.

I've run this over and over again. Unless there is a system change, you do what you do. Montana is the proof here as well; he goes from one type of offense to another, jumped up in completion rate and then spent his next nine years his completion rate is 63.3 and his lifetime is 63.2. There isn't improvement in Montana. He was the embodiement of a brand new offensive system.

Any player is capable of a one year outlier - Montana hitting 10% greater than his norm. But that isn'st sustained improvement.

 

[Awwufelloff]

Do screen passes count as part of completion percentage? Allen had very few of them in the offense he was in. Also, he was on a terrible team. If you take away Rosen’s, mayfield, and darnolds 5 yard passes how close are their completion percentages? Tyrod had a 62.6% completion percentage last year, but he was a terrible QB. You have to look at stats objectivity and with context. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by Awwufelloff

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Awwufelloff said:

Do screen passes count as part of completion percentage? Allen had very few of them in the offense he was in. Also, he was on a terrible team. If you take away Rosen’s, mayfield, and darnolds 5 yard passes how close are their completion percentages? 

 

No one is going to look this up for you. It's very hard to find college splits by passing distance.

 

I've seen each of the top QBs adjusted completion percentage (excludes drops and throw aways) and Allen was still at the very bottom of the pile.

 

Jackson and Mayfield had the highest drop rates from their receivers out of the top passers. 

[Nihilarian]

50 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

This was a nice try, but short.


Manning, Wilson, Favre - not one of them improved in the pros.

In fact, Favre regressed after his first pro year. 

I don't know what t f you are talking about with Eli; his last year in college he posted 62 and he really hasn't been at 62 for his career.

Wilson makes my case for me, not you. 

If you do not demonstrate an ability to complete passes in college, it is nearly impossible for you to learn that ability. You CERTAINLY will never suddenly leapfrog what you do in the first two years. Completing passes is something that is remarkably consistent. If you've been looking at profootball, and you are suggesting this is not true, then you are being deliberately obtuse.

I've run this over and over again. Unless there is a system change, you do what you do. Montana is the proof here as well; he goes from one type of offense to another, jumped up in completion rate and then spent his next nine years his completion rate is 63.3 and his lifetime is 63.2. There isn't improvement in Montana. He was the embodiement of a brand new offensive system.

Any player is capable of a one year outlier - Montana hitting 10% greater than his norm. But that isn'st sustained improvement.

 

Me being obtuse...more like you being purposely dense!  You dared me to show some examples that showed that college players improved their completion percentage and I did just that! I listed five examples. I don't need to show more than I showed and if you want more than look them up on your own. 

 

Each and every one of those players I listed started out lower with their completion percentage their first year in college and improved it over playing time just like I stated. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

A big reason as to why Josh Allen's completion percentage wasn't higher in his second year is because every player that touched the football at Wyoming in 2016 besides Allen was gone in 2017. Attempt to comprehend that completion percentage is not just about the QB throwing the ball it's also about his receivers catching the ball...or more importantly not dropping the pass. 

[Scorp83]

On 3/22/2018 at 4:00 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Seriously.

 

I know that people here really believe in him... why?

 

Plenty of past NFL players have been drafted for physical potential (Ryan Leaf, RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, etc) and have simply flamed out. 

 

I've never seen a college QB so devoid of college production being propped up this much based off of what I can only believe to be purely physical potential.

 

It's head scratching and infuriating because this guy looks like a project 2nd or 3rd round QB at best, to me.

 

What are people focused on? Throws he can make??? Haven't we had enough of these project QBs that are "balls of clay" for us to mold?

 

There's something I'm missing.

 

What is it?

 

I know there isn't a single QB in the NFL HOF with his forgettable production from a second-rate college football program like Wyoming. Is he supposedly going to break that trend?

 

What the hell... someone explain this to me so I can get behind him sooner rather than later if we draft him...

 

 

hopefully, we don't.

 

Honestly who believes in him? There was a poll on Twitter & Allen out of 10,000+ fans was voted the least one to draft.

 

If most of the posters on here likes Allen... then they haven't don't their research & fell in love with his size & deep ball ???

[Real McClappy]

Let him go first then, so Baker or Rosen can slip to us.

[thebandit27]

I see that no one has taken up the challenge to show anything beyond stating Allen's completion percentage and listing other players' numbers to support their argument that Allen cannot be successful in the NFL.

 

That's very surprising considering how many folks just KNOW that he's going to bust...I would think that at least one person would be so bold as to post a video breakdown of him or any type of real analysis beyond "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!!11!1!1"

[CuddyDark]

Anyone see that photo of him and his dad wearing Pats gear?

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I see that no one has taken up the challenge to show anything beyond stating Allen's completion percentage and listing other players' numbers to support their argument that Allen cannot be successful in the NFL.

 

That's very surprising considering how many folks just KNOW that he's going to bust...I would think that at least one person would be so bold as to post a video breakdown of him or any type of real analysis beyond "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!!11!1!1"

I'm sort of like a Trump voter.  I'm afraid to tell folks I'm secretly rather hoping we get him.

[Tyrod's friend]

7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Me being obtuse...more like you being purposely dense!  You dared me to show some examples that showed that college players improved their completion percentage and I did just that! I listed five examples. I don't need to show more than I showed and if you want more than look them up on your own. 

 

Each and every one of those players I listed started out lower with their completion percentage their first year in college and improved it over playing time just like I stated. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

A big reason as to why Josh Allen's completion percentage wasn't higher in his second year is because every player that touched the football at Wyoming in 2016 besides Allen was gone in 2017. Attempt to comprehend that completion percentage is not just about the QB throwing the ball it's also about his receivers catching the ball...or more importantly not dropping the pass. 

Sorry - no I didn't. I am NOT talking about college stats; that's an absurd argument and not one I was making.

Professional numbers. If you weren't in such a rush to try to prove me wrong you wouldn't be trotting out what Russell Wilson did at Wisconsin. 

Look, the whole point of where I am going is that people here and across football are saying that Josh Allen will magically improve his stats when he gets to the professional ranks, that he needs to work with somebody and he'll do this magic leap in his completion percentage. I have proven this over and again, USING YOUR EXAMPLES, that this simply DOES NOT HAPPEN.

Did Allen's receivers drop the ball? Let's turn it around. Did Allen throw catchable balls? Have you ever tried to catch a 65 MPH ball bear handed? There's a reason rocket arms have bad completion percentages. Joe Montana. Chad Pennington. Tom Brady. None of these guys have a rocket but they throw a catchable ball. 

You know who does have a rocket? Matt Stafford, and for most of his career he had Megatron as his target. After he maintained the starting gig in Detroit in '11 and for the next four years he completed 60% of his passes. Oddly enough, the same 60% he completed when he was at Georgia (and for those that don't remember, it was the most talented offensive teams in the history of football. Massaquo, AJ Green, Knowshon Moreno. You've heard of his LT - Cordy Glenn). 

I'll say that Matt is the one guy that did improve his % in the pros ... after he was in Detroit for 8 years. 

SO please, don't tell me I'm purposely dense when you didn't take the time to read what I was saying. 

Edited March 24, 2018 by Tyrod's friend
clarity, grammar

[Nihilarian]

16 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Nevermind the fact that he only played two years at Wyoming and so many, many, many college QB's improved their accuracy after the first two years. Almost every big name QB out there in the history of the NFL improved their completion percentage over time spent playing.

 

Here is what I said, 

 

Which was kinda why I highlighted each of those eventual star NFL players first season in college. Not only did they improve their completion percentage after their first year. They also improved their college average completion percentage to the NFL completion percentage.

 

Brett Favre was at 40.7% completion percentage in his first year at So Miss and averaged a 52.4 completion percentage in college. He improved over his first season and he then averaged over his NFL career a 62.0 percentage which was an improvement from his College days. 

 

Brett Favre, @  Southern Miss, First season 40.7-second season 55.8-third season 54.1- fourth season 55.4. Then in the NFL went right to 64.1 and averaged 62.0 over his career.

 

 

 

Two seasons of college football is really not enough collected data to be 100% positive that a player won't improve as these are young boys who are developing into mature grown men. When Allen first got to Wyoming he was this scrawny kid who grew into that big frame.

 

I gave reasons as to why Josh Allen might not have improved his accuracy due to a team filled with rookies in his second year vs a veteran team in his first year. He was also in a pro-style offense which features a deeper passing scheme which is tougher on young players vs what someone like Josh Rosen ran at UCLA which was a version of a west coast offense which featured shorter passes.

 

Players like Darnold and Rosen also had better teams around them with better coaching, and Rosen had a greater receiver talent in a kid like Lasley who had 1264 yards receiving.

 

Allen has already shown the NFL scouts he has improved his accuracy from what he showed in his senior bowl performance and hence the reason as to why he has moved up into the top one or two QBs in this years draft class. 

 

Let's also not forget that Allen was the MVP of the bowl game that Wyoming played in against Central Michigan going 11 of 19 for 154 yards, 3 TDs with a rating of 178.1. 

 

Do I know for 100% that Allen's completion percentage from 56.2 in college will improve to 60% plus, NO! Do I think it will, YES! Hopefully, he gets drafted by a team that will allow him to sit for a bit and develop

 

 

[KDIGGZ]

i had to go back to this thread today with all of these rumors swirling.  everyone just breathe.  at the very least he's going to be better than anything we have had in a long time, although that's not a high bar to reach