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Midwest1981

What's a "Bridge Too Far" for You in Compensation Given Up to Move Up to #2?

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Posted (edited)

For me it's including our 2019 1st.  While I have little desire or inclination to wipe out the entire treasure chest of 2018 draft picks we've amassed in savvy fashion, I'm deathly afraid of parting with next year's 1st even more- and with McCarron and a rookie likely sharing starts I think that's too valuable of a draft chip to include as compensation, especially given that all of these QB's possess what appear to me to be concerns that can't be easily dismissed:

 

- Darnold's irrelevant, as far as we're concerned, since we can't get to 1.  But his sloppy footwork and rash of turnovers in 2017 (picks & fumbles) can't be categorically glossed over.

 

- Rosen throws such a beautiful ball with touch, anticipation, and advanced mechanics and footwork- but he missed half of 2016 with a shoulder injury, suffered two concussions last year (in quick succession), and left a couple of other games with other injuries.

 

- Mayfield's moxie has some appeal and his football acumen, accuracy, eye manipulation, etc. are topnotch, at this point.  But his size- hand size too- is less than ideal in Buffalo.

 

- Allen's the prototype- God knows the NFL loves prototypes.  It's a shame his accuracy needs such drastic improvement.

 

- Jackson is seemingly the most likely to be there at 12, which in terms of drafting I'd actually be better with taking at 12 rather than sacrificing- maybe squandering; the top-4 are far from 'sure things'- most/all of these picks to move up to #2 or #4.

 

Anyway, if the Bills think that they have really identified the 'other' franchise QB in this draft (setting aside the unobtainable Darnold), I'm good with trading both 2018 1st's (12 & 22), & 2nd's (53 & 56), plus either one of our 3rd's (65 or 96) or a 2019 2nd.

 

But I'm not trading the 2019 1st- I just don't have the conviction in any of these guys to do that.

Edited by Midwest1981

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Posted (edited)

Can't afford to give up too much. There's still other holes to fill. If Mayfield drops that far down, by all means take him. Jackson seems most likely to be there for the Bills so there's no need to give up a king's ransom to move up is we don't have to. 2019 picks are out of the question.

Edited by BmarvB
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I say keep the picks and see who's there at 12.   All those picks for a "maybe" franchise QB is just too much of a gamble and too high a price to pay. 

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There is a significant difference between 2 and 4 on the trade up values.  I know they vary, and there was a 700 point discrepancy in the Jets trade up (Jets overpaying), but I believe the deal is not with the Giants but with Cleveland at #4.

 

The chart says we can get to the Browns #4 spot with our pair of first round picks.  I would think the draft would then go Cleveland QB (allen or darnold), Barkley to Giants, Mayfield or Darnold to Jets and we grab Jewish Lightning at #4.

 

This way we don't give up ANY second or third round picks and still get a top qb prospect.    There isn't such a clear cut KNOWN difference between the top QB guys that is worth dumping both of our second rounders as well.  That's two likely starters (possibly more) we'd be giving up just to get in front of the Jets.

 

Gettleman and Beane are friends, but I think that's meaningless.  This is business, and the Browns #4 spot makes much more sense in every scenario from Beane's perspective. We aren't a team that's close and only needs a position or two to win a championship.  We need these second round picks badly and it's likely whoever we take at 2 is still there at 4 anyway.

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1 hour ago, Midwest1981 said:

For me it's including our 2019 1st.  While I have little desire or inclination to wipe out the entire treasure chest of 2018 draft picks we've amassed in savvy fashion, I'm deathly afraid of parting with next year's 1st even more- and with McCarron and a rookie likely sharing starts I think that's too valuable of a draft chip to include as compensation, especially given that all of these QB's possess what appear to me to be concerns that can't be easily dismissed:

 

- Darnold's irrelevant, as far as we're concerned, since we can't get to 1.  But his sloppy footwork and rash of turnovers in 2017 (picks & fumbles) can't be categorically glossed over.

 

- Rosen throws such a beautiful ball with touch, anticipation, and advanced mechanics and footwork- but he missed half of 2016 with a shoulder injury, suffered two concussions last year (in quick succession), and left a couple of other games with other injuries.

 

- Mayfield's moxie has some appeal and his football acumen, accuracy, eye manipulation, etc. are topnotch, at this point.  But his size- hand size too- is less than ideal in Buffalo.

 

- Allen's the prototype- God knows the NFL loves prototypes.  It's a shame his accuracy needs such drastic improvement.

 

- Jackson is seemingly the most likely to be there at 12, which in terms of drafting I'd actually be better with taking at 12 rather than sacrificing- maybe squandering; the top-4 are far from 'sure things'- most/all of these picks to move up to #2 or #4.

 

Anyway, if the Bills think that they have really identified the 'other' franchise QB in this draft (setting aside the unobtainable Darnold), I'm good with trading both 2018 1st's (12 & 22), & 2nd's (53 & 56), plus either one of our 3rd's (65 or 96) or a 2019 2nd.

 

But I'm not trading the 2019 1st- I just don't have the conviction in any of these guys to do that.

 

Under most, in fact basically every other, situations I would agree with you....but the Bills will have a huuuuge amount of Cap space next year. Meaning they will have the money to go get all the quality FAs they want or desire to build and re-shape the roster. But this year, they need to be really careful with their spending making Rookie contracts, especially those who should produce right away - 1st / 2nd / 3rd rounders - extremely valuable and it infuses the team with a wide swath of youth and talent at low cost. 

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Keep the picks we have and see what falls at 12.  We need a lot of other slots and we can use our good amount of picks for those holes.

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1 hour ago, Midwest1981 said:

For me it's including our 2019 1st. 

 

I'm with you on this, but I'd also include any Jets-level overpay.  If the cost of #2 is both firsts, both seconds, #65, and next year's second, I think that's too much.  I'd rather just stay put and take Jackson or Rudolph at #12.

 

I think the most I can talk myself into being worth it is all 5 picks in the first 3 rounds this year, and nothing next year.  That's a lot to give up for a team with a shaky O-line, no nickel corner, no MLB or SLB, no #2 WR, and not much pass rush.

 

I'm generally against giving up future picks - I know the GM/coach can't be sure they'll be around to use them, but as a fan, I'm young enough to be pretty sure I'll still be around to enjoy them in 2019.  And regardless of who our rookie QB is next year, if Shady tears his ACL in week 1, a 4-12 season wouldn't shock me.  Even if we stay healthy, we could easily go something like 6-10 just with worse luck and rookie/McCarron growing pains.  Taking a step back so you can take three steps forward is fine; but if that happens, make sure you still have your picks!

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From the moment they passed on Mahomes and Watson a year ago, I EXPECTED this to be the year that we invested everything into finding our next franchise QB.  I have been on board with taking this approach for years now and, finally, I thought the Bills were to.  Sometimes you just have to take your swing and do everything you can to make sure you find your guy and then build around him.  We have been filling every other hole on this teams for years and what happens?  Players come and players go.......  Holes are filled and new ones are created all while we remain a middling team that is never good enough to win anything.  Why, because the biggest hole on this team has been QB the entire time and yet, we have ignored it and have never taken a major swing at getting the position right.  Well, now is the time.

 

That said, I am on board for doing whatever it takes to get to #2 this year.......with 1 exception......

 

The Bills have been working towards this goal of finding a franchise QB for the last year.  We have let very good players walk out the door, added draft picks, have moved up in the draft already to put us in a better position for a final move into the top 3-5 picks.  Now, they just need to finish the job.  Trade whatever you need to trade to get to #2.  I don't have a problem with it unless all of this stuff was done to get to Josh Allen.  Lord help me if they trade multiple first round, 2nd round, 3rd round picks.....and really good football players over the last year in order to draft Josh Allen.

 

Look, Allen may be good someday, but as I have been saying, there is a much better chance that he never pans out.  All the tools, but I don't see the accuracy and the ability to read defenses quick enough to be a star.  I think there is a good chance he flops.

 

So, yeah......trade everything you have to and if you come away with Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield, I'm good.  It's time to have an elite prospect at the QB position on this team.  But if they like Allen, I'd rather stay at 12, draft Jackson and use the rest of our picks. 

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19 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

There is a significant difference between 2 and 4 on the trade up values.  I know they vary, and there was a 700 point discrepancy in the Jets trade up (Jets overpaying), but I believe the deal is not with the Giants but with Cleveland at #4.

 

The chart says we can get to the Browns #4 spot with our pair of first round picks.  I would think the draft would then go Cleveland QB (allen or darnold), Barkley to Giants, Mayfield or Darnold to Jets and we grab Jewish Lightning at #4.

 

This way we don't give up ANY second or third round picks and still get a top qb prospect.    There isn't such a clear cut KNOWN difference between the top QB guys that is worth dumping both of our second rounders as well.  That's two likely starters (possibly more) we'd be giving up just to get in front of the Jets.

 

Gettleman and Beane are friends, but I think that's meaningless.  This is business, and the Browns #4 spot makes much more sense in every scenario from Beane's perspective. We aren't a team that's close and only needs a position or two to win a championship.  We need these second round picks badly and it's likely whoever we take at 2 is still there at 4 anyway.

 

That's pretty much my dream scenario.

20 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Under most, in fact basically every other, situations I would agree with you....but the Bills will have a huuuuge amount of Cap space next year. Meaning they will have the money to go get all the quality FAs they want or desire to build and re-shape the roster. But this year, they need to be really careful with their spending making Rookie contracts, especially those who should produce right away - 1st / 2nd / 3rd rounders - extremely valuable and it infuses the team with a wide swath of youth and talent at low cost. 

 

I understand this logic, but I still don't agree with it.  I'm hoping that McBeane mean what they say when they talk about building something sustainable.  Yes, with a mountain of 2019 cap space, a team can theoretically fill all its holes in free agency, but there's still a limited pool of useful free agents.  If you want to fill all your holes (phrasing!), you're going to have to overpay some of those free agents.  And while you can structure the contracts to have extra cap hit in 2019, there's only so much you can do.  Sooner or later, all of those big free agent deals will get you in cap trouble, and you either can't re-sign players like White/Dawkins/Milano, or you outright have to cut productive players who aren't quite worth their price tag.

 

To me, those rookie contracts will still be extremely valuable in 2019, so I think the team should hold on to them if possible.

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Posted (edited)

Somewhere I read that GMs think this is a particular good draft and not just for QBs.  So the problem with going all Ditka is that you're giving up the opportunity to get future Pro Bowlers at other positions just for a chance at getting a franchise QB.

 

My fantasy is that a good QB falls to us at 12 and that guy turns out to be the QB we've long been seeking.  

 

Given the spotty success rate of 1st round QBs  I'd hate to see us give up much more than this year's two first rounders to move up.  

Edited by hondo in seattle
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The real question is " what is enough to entice the NYG to move down ten spots in the first round" ? I'd say it's probably a 2019 1st instead of a 2nd. 

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1 minute ago, xsoldier54 said:

I say keep the picks and see who's there at 12.   All those picks for a "maybe" franchise QB is just too much of a gamble and too high a price to pay. 

 

Agreed. They all have their flaws, and are risky. we could get the next Jim Kelly or Ryan Leaf. You never know

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for the great responses.

 

Like some of you, I definitely don't love any of these guys enough to sacrifice more than both of our 2018 1st's & 2nd's and either a 2018 3rd or 2019 2nd, to move up from 12 to 2. If Mayfield's there at 4 I'd be willing to give up both 12, 22, & then 53 to move up with the Browns.

 

Otherwise, I'm not kowtowing to the Giants at #2, who think they also us by the *****, and will do whatever we can- to the point of insanity- to move up into the second spot (ahead of the Jets) for Rosen/Allen.


It's not just pride speaking- it's sanity.  I don't believe in any of these guys enough to trade 12, 21, 53, 56, 65, & next year's 1st & 3rd (probably the accurate "cost" following the Jets' manuever) for that pick.  I'd rather just use them all (the picks) and follow a model that has proven CAN be successful (the Vikings and Jaguars' model of this past season where the team elevates the QB position rather than the other way around).  And I think with some patience and in the right system Lamar Jackson can be dynamic and better than at least a couple of these guys, anyway.


None of us live in the future- we can't propel ourselves into 2021 and know which QB's separated themselves from one another and were worthy of trading two whole year's worth of picks for.  As of March 2018 I don't see any of these guys worth what the Giants will now demand.
 

Edited by Midwest1981
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Posted (edited)

There are exceptions but I'm mostly a one-guy-for-every-pick kind of fan.

 

Bundling picks to move up is generally a poor strategy. 

 

The  more picks you have, the better your chances of striking gold.  Regardless of what the draft value chart may say, I'd bet that history says the #12 and #22 pick combined net more than say the #6 pick.  

 

 

Edited by hondo in seattle
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Posted (edited)

Once again, we do not know what QB the Bills covet.  They may not even need to go to #2 to get their guy.  All 5 are CLOSELY graded and are ranked different with each team.  If the Bills covet say Allen or Baker, it would be foolish to trade to #2.  

 

There are a lot of options this year other than just trading to #2 for just the sake of doing so.  We do not need to make the trade just to make the fans feel better about the QB they pick.  If the Bills do not trade to #2 it doesn't mean they aren't committed to getting their guy.  Its QUITE possible the guy THEY want can be had at 7, 8, 9, 10, or even at their own pick at #12.  

 

The ONLY way it makes sense for the Bills to trade to #2 is if there is a SPECIFIC guy they feel is the an absolute MUST GET over the other top 5 QB's.  And I have a hard time believing any one of the top 5 can be seen by any team as so much better than the others its worth giving up a fortune for that one guy instead of spending less and taking someone they also have graded closely to him.  

 

End of day, the only way Beane makes any trade into the top 5 is only if there is a guy they absolutely covet over the others.  I personally think we won't do that and will instead let the draft fall to us and make a cheaper move up between 7 and 10 if one they covet is there or stay at 12.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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I don't know.  But whatever valuations Beane puts on the players, I hope he sticks to that valuation.  In other words if it calls on to mortgage the farm on a player and they believe that is their guy, then go for it.  If they put a lesser valuation on that player and now are forced to go above that value, then pass and move on to the next option.

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There almost isn't one.

 

Assuming we get a franchise guy, I'd give up three #1s plus a lot of our bounty this year. Only if necessary, of course. I'm not dying to get rid of them or anything but this is the key moment on team building for the next fifteen years. Go up high and get a terrific QB.

 

 

16 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

There are exceptions but I'm mostly a one-guy-for-every-pick kind of fan.

 

Bundling picks to move up is generally a poor strategy. 

 

The  more picks you have, the better your chances of striking gold.  Regardless of what the draft value chart may say, I'd bet that history says the #12 and #22 pick combined net more than say the #6 pick.  

 

 

 

 

I'm the opposite. I don't generally want one guy for every pick. I want 1.2 or 1.3 guys per pick. Or more. Trade back. Accumulate them.

 

But there's one exception and one only and that's a franchise quarterback. Give what you have to give.

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1 hour ago, Cash said:

 

That's pretty much my dream scenario.

 

I understand this logic, but I still don't agree with it.  I'm hoping that McBeane mean what they say when they talk about building something sustainable.  Yes, with a mountain of 2019 cap space, a team can theoretically fill all its holes in free agency, but there's still a limited pool of useful free agents.  If you want to fill all your holes (phrasing!), you're going to have to overpay some of those free agents.  And while you can structure the contracts to have extra cap hit in 2019, there's only so much you can do.  Sooner or later, all of those big free agent deals will get you in cap trouble, and you either can't re-sign players like White/Dawkins/Milano, or you outright have to cut productive players who aren't quite worth their price tag.

 

To me, those rookie contracts will still be extremely valuable in 2019, so I think the team should hold on to them if possible.

 

I agree in principle, I'm not a fan of over-paying for FAs either and believe you build through the Draft, but in this particular case, the Bills have the unique opportunity of coming off a playoff season AND being able to get into the top 5 to get their franchise QB (if they believe that's where he is found) and still be able to Draft good players THIS year and fill out the roster NEXT year via FA. 

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Posted (edited)

The plan all along was to get us a top prospect at QB. Cant stop now, I don't care how much it costs, get it done.

Darnold, Rosen or they failed after all this moving.

Edited by xRUSHx
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Posted (edited)

I see a move up between 6 and 10. Not number 2. That is IF the Bills move up.

Edited by MtlBillsFan

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Better than a bridge too short:

 

gefyra_bw-488x340.jpg

 

 

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Literally nothing.

 

I don't understand how anyone can sit here after watching the Bills for the last 18 years say "A QB is not worth it"

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