Beane & Co. too Conservative in their Trade Offers? (Opinion)

[Boatdrinks]

15 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

I'm disappointed, I expected this staff to give us fans the franchise worthy QB we have been waiting for since Kelly. Regardless of cost it was going to happen, we were all so sure. Everything was in the cards, a HC that was just with Cam a franchise worthy QB, a boat load of picks, a move up to 12, the trading of Tyrod, I was ok with waiting till this draft because of our chances on landing one of the top 3, sadly it looks like another wide right. Almost got it, not quick enough.

Not quick enough? The Bills and likely other teams were talking with the Colts about the 3rd pick a week ago . The Colts weren't going to pounce on the first offer that came along when they are holding the golden ticket. There are teams picking ahead of BUF in the draft that are QB needy too. Think all the Bills trade moves and picks are lost on them? If a team already ahead of you in the draft order is willing to give up what the team at 3 is asking, you simply aren't getting the pick. A pick just outside the top five is just too attractive to beat if you're sitting at 12. 

[Reed83HOF]

7 minutes ago, Heitz said:

Got it, BBBFS.  Makes sense now...

I was 7 in 84 and that is when I started...it's been a long time...

 

And wide wright was on my 14th birthday

Edited March 18, 2018 by Reed83HOF

[Heitz]

5 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I was 7 in 84 and that is when I started...it's been a long time...

 

7?  You puppy ?

 

All I’m saying is that past performance doesn’t guarantee success (and vice-versa).  All you can do is let it play out...

 

And with that ✌? - these Tetons ain’t gonna shred themselves tomorrow!

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Who knows what really goes on in those phone calls??

 

 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Maybe they are just smart enough to realize that you don't need to get to the top 3 to get a QB and they might be able to get he guy they want where they are at now or by moving to 7 or 8.  Let's stop acting like whoever someone takes at 1,2 or 3 is guaranteed tobe a franchise QB...in fact odds are against them.

The Bills do have to be careful about the 2nd wave of QBs after the 1st four...There is Miami and Arizona lurking around will be front-runners for getting them too.  

[Scorp83]

4 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  The fact of the matter is that everybody here and the pundits to boot have no idea as to what Beane did or did not do.  Everything is 100 percent speculation from what I have see.  If the top of the draft is considered rich with prospects so put the charts away as the only thing that matters is top bid.

Pretty much... 

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

I dont but it sure looks like the same old Bills waiting for one to fall from the sky. We as fans have been let down the exact same way every draft, they wait for the golden arm to fall to them and boom always got to wait till next year's draft, wash repeat. Hey look another backup QB from some other team leading the way, just a new staff doing the exact same thing, build around some other teams backup. If didn't happen all the time I guess I wouldn't feel this way. 

Man Rush.... Man.... we've been living in this mindset for way too long. I just don't want to get back into this space anymore. I hear you... but man it depresses me to get back here... I want to believe in this front office, I want to feel like they're doing something different then previous regimes 

[NickelCity]

My thoughts (it's getting tough to choose which thread to put them into):

1. I would trade way up for Darnold or Rosen. Why not? Swing for the fences. It'll take a king's ransom but that's ok. I'm for it. The question rests entirely on whether the Giants will play ball. 
2. I could get behind a trade up for Mayfield, but I don't think the Giants would be our spot for him. Maybe the browns at 4? (requires browns going QB at 1 and giants taking barkley at 2). 
3. Alternatively: we could genuinely be out of luck, and I wouldn't even blame Beane:
   • Let me reinforce: this is not the scenario I prefer. However, if he can't get the Giants to accept an offer for #2, what else can he do. He'll be beside himself, I imagine. He's demonstrated an adept approach to roster building with an eye toward the cap and long-term plans that I appreciate. In this case, I think getting a legitimate blue chip ILB and OLine talent, and then using our remaining picks for whatever they think is best (WR, more backers, etc), has its merits. Obviously it forces us to ignore the franchise qb issue, but there have been many offseasons where we've had to base our hopes on much, much less. 
   • If we can't get Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield, I think McCarron is probably every bit the prospect of lamar and allen. Perhaps his ceiling is lower, I don't know, but he's been stuck behind dalton and Marvin Lewis hates qb controversy. He's also demonstrated the game is not too big for him. He's had his share of highlights and plays he wants back, but I've never thought he looked out of his depth. 

I suppose what I'm saying is that I desperately want us to try for a top QB in a good QB year, and while I'll be very disappointed if we don't, there is still a lot to be excited about - and at least we'll have a QB that could turn into something. But then again, it's the hope that kills ya...

[Inigo Montoya]

The Jets front office is acting like they’re on dope this off season.

 

It’s like they had no idea what they were going to do with the QB position this year.  When Cousins opted for the Vikings they lost their minds and got swept up in the free agency QB feeding frenzy and grabbed not just one QB, but two of them, and signed both of them to sizable contracts.

 

Less than a week later they send a boat load of picks to the Colts to trade up to draft a rookie QB.  They are going to have Rosen/Darnold/Allen + McCown +  Bridgewater on the roster.  I like a bit of insurance just like the next guy but that seems a bit extravagant. That’s clearly one too many.  Of the two I’d pick McCown because he can mentor the rookie.  I have no idea what the hell Bridgewater is doing there. What were they thinking when they brought him in?

 

It’s like they hadn’t thought about trading up in the draft to get a QB at that point yet.  How does that happen? Haven’t they heard of something called contingency planning?  

 

Oh yeah, then there is the little detail of the other two QBs already on the roster, Hackenberg and Petty.  So right now they have four QBs under contract and just threw their hat over the fence to draft a fifth.

 

It just doesn’t look like they thought this whole thing out very well.

 

 

[Lfod]

43 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The Jets front office is acting like they’re on dope this off season.

 

It’s like they had no idea what they were going to do with the QB position this year.  When Cousins opted for the Vikings they lost their minds and got swept up in the free agency QB feeding frenzy and grabbed not just one QB, but two of them, and signed both of them to sizable contracts.

 

Less than a week later they send a boat load of picks to the Colts to trade up to draft a rookie QB.  They are going to have Rosen/Darnold/Allen + McCown +  Bridgewater on the roster.  I like a bit of insurance just like the next guy but that seems a bit extravagant. That’s clearly one too many.  Of the two I’d pick McCown because he can mentor the rookie.  I have no idea what the hell Bridgewater is doing there. What were they thinking when they brought him in?

 

It’s like they hadn’t thought about trading up in the draft to get a QB at that point yet.  How does that happen? Haven’t they heard of something called contingency planning?  

 

Oh yeah, then there is the little detail of the other two QBs already on the roster, Hackenberg and Petty.  So right now they have four QBs under contract and just threw their hat over the fence to draft a fifth.

 

It just doesn’t look like they thought this whole thing out very well.

 

 

I guess they figure they will keep throwing stuff at the wall until something sticks. It looks stupid and probably is. If any one of them works out people will be on here praising the Jets being so bold at the most important position in football yadda yadda ECT ECT. 

 

Hopefully in time we are all here yucking it up about how stupid the Jets look. A lot of premature judgement. Have to see the results of moves before I become critical.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Lfod

[Buffalo Barbarian]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Not that we need yet another thread discussing how the Jets potentially "screwed" us, but I wanted to go into the draft point value of the trade & what the Bills could've (or should've) offered, and what was actually thought to be needed in the first place to trade with the Colts.

According to the NFL Draft Value Chart (Walter Football - http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php ), the Colts #3 overall pick was worth 2,200 points.

The Jets traded them:

#6 (1st Rd) = 1,600 points

#37 (2nd Rd) = 530 points

#49 (2nd Rd) = 410 points 

Undisclosed 2nd next year (between 270-580)

 

Total: 2,540 points (confirmed)

We were projected to have to trade both our 1st rounders, and a combination of either of our 2nd & 3rd round picks.

For example, we could've traded:

#12 (1st Rd) = 1,200 points

#22 (1st Rd) = 780 points

#56 (Our later 2nd Rd pick) = 340 points

#65 (3rd Rd) = 265

 

Total: 2,585 points

That would give us a 1st round pick (#3 overall), our better 2nd round pick (#53), a 3rd round pick (#96), and a 4th, 5th & 6th round pick remaining. In other words, we'd still have a full regular lineup of draft picks, 1 in each round with the exception of the 7th. 

To have a full lineup of draft picks AND have your choice of QB's, at least 1 of which the Bills Management clearly wants, is a great situation to be in regardless of "but we COULD do ____ with more picks!" Sure, we "could" do some other things, but 99% of the time teams are happy going into a draft with a full lineup of picks and not short from dumb trades (see: 2015 Bills draft where we had 0 picks until #50 overall, then only had a 3rd, a 5th, two 6th's & a 7th). Edit: I forgot to add the Bills obviously could offer picks/players/etc. that could compensate for the Jets' 2019 pick that there's no way to evaluate yet. It's done quite often in trades for picks anyway, so freeing up a mid round pick or player isn't some absurd price.

So what then was Beane offering? My guess is he was offering both the 1st rounders, and the 3rd acquired from the Browns (2,245 points), and wouldn't budge on anything else. Hell, maybe he was feeling he was on a hot streak, wheeling & dealing with everything going his way and tried to get over on them in terms of point value....offering both 1sts & a 4th or something. Either way, it certainly has thrown a wrench in Beane's plans, because regardless of what anyone WANTS us to do, it's clear the Front Office was setting themselves up to trade into the top 4, and now another QB hungry team has placed themselves ahead of us.
 

 

Moving back to 12 I think was the biggest deterrent regardless of all the other picks. Trading back to 6 can still get one a superstar while adding all the picks the jets have up.

 

We will probably have to trade with the Broncos to trade up to one or two 

 

 

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Also, before anyone wants to claim "it's ok, we can fill other holes!" - we HAVE the draft capital we do for a reason...to grab a QB in THIS draft.

That was clear since last year, and even more obvious with recent trades & acquisitions. And looking at this trade, it's easy to see we also could've swung a deal that resulted in us keeping a pick in every single round AND getting our guy. Now, a division rival who didn't have as many resources as we do, manages to swing a trade that has them potentially snagging a guy the Bills were targeting.

Even worse, it now means the only way to ensure that doesn't happen is to trade even higher with Giants, costing far more resources than it would have otherwise. 

Yes, we "can" uses these picks now to fill other holes, but that wasn't Plan A for Bills brass. And they likely won't have this kind of opportunity again, with this many picks to use next year to go after a QB....so we'd have to hope we tank to get another shot like this (while also hoping 2019's QB class is better than this one).

 

The draft is still six weeks away , we aren't done yet, but if we don't get our QB I feel confident in what we are doing and we will have a much better team than last year and can win with McCarron.

 

 

[terrytate]

Those draft value charts are dated and don't come into play when 2 things come into consideration. 1 being qb's 2 being a bidding war.  Look at the RG3 trade, huge bidding war.  

[FrankoElTanko]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Also, before anyone wants to claim "it's ok, we can fill other holes!" - we HAVE the draft capital we do for a reason...to grab a QB in THIS draft.

That was clear since last year, and even more obvious with recent trades & acquisitions. And looking at this trade, it's easy to see we also could've swung a deal that resulted in us keeping a pick in every single round AND getting our guy. Now, a division rival who didn't have as many resources as we do, manages to swing a trade that has them potentially snagging a guy the Bills were targeting.

Even worse, it now means the only way to ensure that doesn't happen is to trade even higher with Giants, costing far more resources than it would have otherwise. 

Yes, we "can" uses these picks now to fill other holes, but that wasn't Plan A for Bills brass. And they likely won't have this kind of opportunity again, with this many picks to use next year to go after a QB....so we'd have to hope we tank to get another shot like this (while also hoping 2019's QB class is better than this one).

I want to understand this but I need more. Like you said at the beginning, if you had to guess... Which you did but let me ask you a few hypotheticals, which is not to say I don’t agree with you?

- what if whomever the colts want will not be there outside of the top 10, how could we have offered them that?

- assuming what you said was true about our offer, who is to say that the colts wouldn’t have required a 2nd rounder this yr or a 2nd rounder (or higher) next yr?  Something you said we were not providing in our offer that NYJ were.

- who’s to say we don’t have a conditional deal already in place with NYG (depending on what Cleveland does w Barkley)?

- who’s to say we don’t have a conditional deal in already in place for Cleveland’s #4 if they decide to choose a Qb and NYG go Barkley?

I just feel like it’s kinda out there to think we’ve done all we have to the point we have to go out and think AJ McCarron or a 12ovr selected rookie (likely outside of top 4) Qb is what they have in mind. But like you said it’s all guessing and I’ll die the same way I was born, a Bills fan. So, if it is a Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph and we keep what we have left... I guess I just have to keep trusting the process. Regardless of how last year, it was awesome to be a fan during the last month of the season/first month of the postseason and we can be somewhat grateful to the staff for doing so with what we all thought was a gutted roster.

[ALF]

If the Browns take a QB at #1 they can parlay #4 for more picks.

 

I would think the Giants take a QB or Barkley  at #2 .

 

I would think the Bills make a deal with the Browns if the QB they want is still there after the first 3 picks are made. 

 

Last resort take a QB at #12 or 2nd rd  and build around McCarron . Making the playoffs has draft consequences. 

[terrytate]

Just now, ALF said:

If the Browns take a QB at #1 they can parlay #4 for more picks.

 

I would think the Giants take a QB or Barkley  at #2 .

 

I would think the Bills make a deal with the Browns if the QB they want is still there after the first 3 picks are made. 

 

Last resort take a QB at #12 or 2nd rd  and build around McCarron . Making the playoffs has draft consequences. 

 

4 is going to be the only spot open for  a trade. 

 

I see the board going like this

 

1. Darnold

2. Rosen

3. Allen

4. Mayfield

 

Someone will trade up for mayfield.

[ALF]

I sure hope hope Allen  goes #3 and the Bills had a chance at Mayfield. 

[26TrapDraw]

11 hours ago, Rico said:

Doesn’t matter because I never wanted #3, it’s all about #2. Keep your eyes on the prize.

I negotiate contracts everyday for work. The small amount of leverage Beane had prior to The Jets jumping up to 3 was the unknown. Now if we inquire about the 2 with NY they will ask for the house the car and the @#$&ing crock pot. We're F'ed.

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

I negotiate contracts everyday for work. The small amount of leverage Beane had prior to The Jets jumping up to 3 was the unknown. Now if we inquire about the 2 with NY they will ask for the house the car and the @#$&ing crock pot. We're F'ed.

I think Gettleman has been asking for that all along.  No problem with Beane doing his dilegance and finding out if the guy they like is worth it.   There are multiple qbs as well.  How do they rate Jackson to there number 1 guy?  If its close take him and keep 100% of their picks.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The Jets front office is acting like they’re on dope this off season.

 

It just doesn’t look like they thought this whole thing out very well.

 

 

Those are some really good points. Jets are certainly all over the map this off-season. I think the Bridgewater signing is the most puzzling as you pointed too. At the end of the day though, the Jets might land a franchise QB which would suck. I'm really hoping they draft Allen and don't land Rosen or Mayfield. Mayfield in particular seems like a guy that could shine and play with swagger in New York. I have no desire to see Mayfield grab his nuts twice a year as he walks off the field in victory over the Bills.

5 hours ago, terrytate said:

 

4 is going to be the only spot open for  a trade. 

 

I see the board going like this

 

1. Darnold

2. Rosen

3. Allen

4. Mayfield

 

Someone will trade up for mayfield.

 

In that scenario the Broncos trade up one spot with the Browns to ensure they land Mayfield and the Browns move back one spot and still get the guy they wanted all along in Barkley. That would be a terrific hall for the Browns. And with so many picks on day two and three of the draft I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Browns trade back into the first round to go for quality over quantity. Could be looking at the Browns selecting three players in the first round. 

[terrytate]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Those are some really good points. Jets are certainly all over the map this off-season. I think the Bridgewater signing is the most puzzling as you pointed too. At the end of the day though, the Jets might land a franchise QB which would suck. I'm really hoping they draft Allen and don't land Rosen or Mayfield. Mayfield in particular seems like a guy that could shine and play with swagger in New York. I have no desire to see Mayfield grab his nuts twice a year as he walks off the field in victory over the Bills.

 

In that scenario the Broncos trade up one spot with the Browns to ensure they land Mayfield and the Browns move back one spot and still get the guy they wanted all along in Barkley. That would be a terrific hall for the Browns. And with so many picks on day two and three of the draft I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Browns trade back into the first round to go for quality over quantity. Could be looking at the Browns selecting three players in the first round. 

 

That is why i think if we want to get to 4 we have to get to 6 first.  If we get to 6 There is a chance barkley could slip past denver, all we would have to do is beat Denver's offer. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think Gettleman has been asking for that all along.  No problem with Beane doing his dilegance and finding out if the guy they like is worth it.   There are multiple qbs as well.  How do they rate Jackson to there number 1 guy?  If its close take him and keep 100% of their picks.

Yeah. Even the price for the Jets to move from #3 to #2 to ensure they get the second QB off the board is going to be extremely pricey as well IMO. That's if the Giants are all in at Barkley and or okay with dealing with the Jets. I would expect it to be much more than what the Bears gave up to the 49ers last year.

2 minutes ago, terrytate said:

 

That is why i think if we want to get to 4 we have to get to 6 first.  If we get to 6 There is a chance barkley could slip past denver, all we would have to do is beat Denver's offer. 

 

I have a feeling Beane has an interest in only Darnold and Rosen. Just pure speculation on my part. But if that is the case he has no desire to get to #4 or even #3 before the draft. He'll have to wait and see where Darnold or Rosen end up and if one is available at #4 then you make a deal for #4 if you can. Or just keep working the phones with Cleveland and NY Giants for #1 or #2.