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Analysis of the current situation


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Lots and lots of folks here with some kneejerk reactions to todays trade are getting some things severely wrong as they try and make sense of what is going on.  

 

1.  Cleveland.  They are taking a QB.  I don't claim to know which one, but it will be a QB.  The barkley talk at 1 AND/OR 4 is rediculous.  They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal this past week to be the feature back.  They have Duke Johnson, one of the few consistant performers on their roster as the 3rd down guy.  Doresy has a LONG LONG history of being with front offices that don't take RB high, or when has made the choices himself, has NOT taken RB high.  He drafted Kareem Hunt in round 3 last year....his entire careers work and experience indicate that he is clearly in the "you can find a RB later" school of thought.  It's a deep RB draft.  They aren't taking Barkley at 1, AND they aren't taking him at 4.  

 

2.  NY Giants.  Everything has a price...and the Giants can demand a ransom here, you would think...but can they really?  Barkley is a more obvious fit here, they have a GM who last year spent a 1st round pick on Christian McCaffery.  They have a need at RB...but they have plenty of holes to fill, deep RB draft.  Consider the 2019 QB class SUCKS. (at least it seems that way now...granted we are a year out, but it's not good)  They were all geared up to move on from Eli at the end of last season.  They still understand that Eli is just about done as it is even if they aren't moving on just yet.  They are in a great position to take his successor.  Again, looking forward a year....when the QB crop is lacking and you don't know where you are drafting, they may recognize the position they are in as the best chance to get their next QB.  They may well be prepared to have a 2019 in which there is no Eli, no Beckham, and they are starting over....could get a jump on that with the QB now.  Let's examine the trade market for this pick.  1QB off the board at 1.  Let's assume that is either Darnold or Allen.  The Jet's are at 3, willing to move up to 2 if they must to get Mayfield (speculation on my part, but I believe that is their man.)  Cleveland with 4, not moving up.  Denver at 5.  They aren't moving up.   They are staying put.  So, no trade partner there.  6.  Colts.  no reason to move up to six after moving out of 3....they are also staying in place at 6 for a top NON QB.  Tampa at 7.  Not moving on from Winston (nor should they, he's shown enough to continue as the unquestioned starter)  8.  Chicago.  They have Trubisky.  They aren't in the trade up market, and if they were to move up it isn't for QB.  No reason to go to 2.  9.  49ers.  Garroppolo.  10. Raiders. Carr.  11.  Miami.  They are sticking with Tannehill...see below.  12.  Buffalo.  NEED QB.  13.  Redskins.  Alex Smith.  14. Packers. Rodgers.  15 Arizona.  Signed Bradford..but could use drafted QB.  16. Baltimore.  Not trading up for QB this year..have Flacco.  The trade market is stay in place or move to 12 and picks with Buffalo.  Arizona has no ammo.  

 

3.  Jets.  They will take a QB here....I am almost sure it's Mayfield.  They are in great shape if this is their man...the Giants would be the desination for Rosen if they take one.  If the Giants can figure out the Jets target, and it isn't the QB they are after, they could fleece the jets to flop spots.

 

4. Cleveland....could trade out, but if you read the market for the 2nd pick....it's the same market.  Cleveland will spend this pick on a top NON QB prospect.

 

5.  Denver at 5.  They aren't moving up.  Let's look at this closely...it's another team alot of folks here haven't paid close attention to.  They signed Keenum for starter money.  They have a coaching staff who has THIS YEAR.  The GM has been plauged by poor QB choices.  Paxton Lynch is still on the roster.  They have re-upped their WR's for the next two seasons.  They are in WIN NOW mode while they percieve their window is open.  They need more day 1 starter help, not developmental QB help.  They are NOT a threat to move up now, nor are they a threat to take a QB where they sit.  They are in on a top Non QB prospect at 5.  They are staying put.

 

6. Colts.  Chose to trade with Jets for a reason...wanting a top NON QB prospect and can still get that here.

 

Miami just restructed Tannehill...he's there for 2 more seasons, or they take a giant cap hit to let him go.

 

The Bills are still in line to get a QB...at 12.  The Jets move up has settled the situation at the top....the Problem here is the Bills Board.  is the QB that will be left, is he "the man?"  

 

speculating that the draft goes 1.Darnold. 2. Rosen. 3 Mayfield.  That leaves ALLEN, JACKSON....and Rudolph.  It is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that Buffalo passes at 12 now even, and waits for 21 to see how it shakes out.  I am sure Jackson and Rudolph will have made it that far..and possibly even Allen.  That leaves the following possible scenarios.

 

Best Case:  at 2, the Giants keep the pick AND take a NON QB.  Jet's go Mayfield...that leave Rosen for the taking, and the Bills with plenty of Ammo and all sorts of trade partners to work with to move up and get him.

 

More Likely Case:  Giants don't show their hand, Jets get itchy about their man, fear someone could move up, Giants know Bills have need for Rosen....takes 2 to have a market....they have a market...Bills sell the farm to move up.  12, 21, other picks.  Get Rosen.

 

Alternate Likely Case:  Giants convince Jets someone is about to move to 2 and get their guy.  Jet's swap with Giants.  Jets take Mayfield anyhow.  Giants and Bills talk.  Bills still pay ransom to move up to 3 for Rosen.

 

Better Case:  Rosen still on board  as draft progresses....closer he gets to 12, less ransom the bills pay to move up....perhaps he lasts to 12.  Beane is hero.  

 

Not knowing what the Giants think of Rosen and others, and not being sure who the Jets want keeps things cloudy, but the Bills are not in horrible shape, they haven't missed out...and the Jets moving to 3 clarifies the market and allows time to consider options and plan.

Edited by Zerovotlz
added in Tannehill situation.
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2 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Lots and lots of folks here with some kneejerk reactions to todays trade are getting some things severely wrong as they try and make sense of what is going on.  

 

1.  Cleveland.  They are taking a QB.  I don't claim to know which one, but it will be a QB.  The barkley talk at 1 AND/OR 4 is rediculous.  They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal this past week to be the feature back.  They have Duke Johnson, one of the few consistant performers on their roster as the 3rd down guy.  Doresy has a LONG LONG history of being with front offices that don't take RB high, or when has made the choices himself, has NOT taken RB high.  He drafted Kareem Hunt in round 3 last year....his entire careers work and experience indicate that he is clearly in the "you can find a RB later" school of thought.  It's a deep RB draft.  They aren't taking Barkley at 1, AND they aren't taking him at 4.  

 

2.  NY Giants.  Everything has a price...and the Giants can demand a ransom here, you would think...but can they really?  Barkley is a more obvious fit here, they have a GM who last year spent a 1st round pick on Christian McCaffery.  They have a need at RB...but they have plenty of holes to fill, deep RB draft.  Consider the 2019 QB class SUCKS. (at least it seems that way now...granted we are a year out, but it's not good)  They were all geared up to move on from Eli at the end of last season.  They still understand that Eli is just about done as it is even if they aren't moving on just yet.  They are in a great position to take his successor.  Again, looking forward a year....when the QB crop is lacking and you don't know where you are drafting, they may recognize the position they are in as the best chance to get their next QB.  They may well be prepared to have a 2019 in which there is no Eli, no Beckham, and they are starting over....could get a jump on that with the QB now.  Let's examine the trade market for this pick.  1QB off the board at 1.  Let's assume that is either Darnold or Allen.  The Jet's are at 3, willing to move up to 2 if they must to get Mayfield (speculation on my part, but I believe that is their man.)  Cleveland with 4, not moving up.  Denver at 5.  They aren't moving up.   They are staying put.  So, no trade partner there.  6.  Colts.  no reason to move up to six after moving out of 3....they are also staying in place at 6 for a top NON QB.  Tampa at 7.  Not moving on from Winston (nor should they, he's shown enough to continue as the unquestioned starter)  8.  Chicago.  They have Trubisky.  They aren't in the trade up market, and if they were to move up it isn't for QB.  No reason to go to 2.  9.  49ers.  Garroppolo.  10. Raiders. Carr.  11.  Miami.  They are sticking with Tannehill...see below.  12.  Buffalo.  NEED QB.  13.  Redskins.  Alex Smith.  14. Packers. Rodgers.  15 Arizona.  Signed Bradford..but could use drafted QB.  16. Baltimore.  Not trading up for QB this year..have Flacco.  The trade market is stay in place or move to 12 and picks with Buffalo.  Arizona has no ammo.  

 

3.  Jets.  They will take a QB here....I am almost sure it's Mayfield.  They are in great shape if this is their man...the Giants would be the desination for Rosen if they take one.  If the Giants can figure out the Jets target, and it isn't the QB they are after, they could fleece the jets to flop spots.

 

4. Cleveland....could trade out, but if you read the market for the 2nd pick....it's the same market.  Cleveland will spend this pick on a top NON QB prospect.

 

5.  Denver at 5.  They aren't moving up.  Let's look at this closely...it's another team alot of folks here haven't paid close attention to.  They signed Keenum for starter money.  They have a coaching staff who has THIS YEAR.  The GM has been plauged by poor QB choices.  Paxton Lynch is still on the roster.  They have re-upped their WR's for the next two seasons.  They are in WIN NOW mode while they percieve their window is open.  They need more day 1 starter help, not developmental QB help.  They are NOT a threat to move up now, nor are they a threat to take a QB where they sit.  They are in on a top Non QB prospect at 5.  They are staying put.

 

6. Colts.  Chose to trade with Jets for a reason...wanting a top NON QB prospect and can still get that here.

 

Miami just restructed Tannehill...he's there for 2 more seasons, or they take a giant cap hit to let him go.

 

The Bills are still in line to get a QB...at 12.  The Jets move up has settled the situation at the top....the Problem here is the Bills Board.  is the QB that will be left, is he "the man?"  

 

speculating that the draft goes 1.Darnold. 2. Rosen. 3 Mayfield.  That leaves ALLEN, JACKSON....and Rudolph.  It is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that Buffalo passes at 12 now even, and waits for 21 to see how it shakes out.  I am sure Jackson and Rudolph will have made it that far..and possibly even Allen.  That leaves the following possible scenarios.

 

Best Case:  at 2, the Giants keep the pick AND take a NON QB.  Jet's go Mayfield...that leave Rosen for the taking, and the Bills with plenty of Ammo and all sorts of trade partners to work with to move up and get him.

 

More Likely Case:  Giants don't show their hand, Jets get itchy about their man, fear someone could move up, Giants know Bills have need for Rosen....takes 2 to have a market....they have a market...Bills sell the farm to move up.  12, 21, other picks.  Get Rosen.

 

Alternate Likely Case:  Giants convince Jets someone is about to move to 2 and get their guy.  Jet's swap with Giants.  Jets take Mayfield anyhow.  Giants and Bills talk.  Bills still pay ransom to move up to 3 for Rosen.

 

Better Case:  Rosen still on board  as draft progresses....closer he gets to 12, less ransom the bills pay to move up....perhaps he lasts to 12.  Beane is hero.  

 

Not knowing what the Giants think of Rosen and others, and not being sure who the Jets want keeps things cloudy, but the Bills are not in horrible shape, they haven't missed out...and the Jets moving to 3 clarifies the market and allows time to consider options and plan.

Interesting take.  It all comes down to whether Beane has a guy he feels he has to get

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Thank you for a well thought out post. I suspect you may be correct.

 

The Giants could hold out for a kings ransom and lose out. Beane should be prepared to pay a fair price but also be ready to walk.  The Bills have multiple needs and keeping some picks is required.

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The current situation is that Beane and the Bills are currently in the 12th draft spot. He would like to go high enough to get a QB, but has to find a team willing to move down to 12 plus pick up a bunch of extra picks. There may not be a team with a high pick willing to do this . 

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Some other things to discern from this.  Certainly if the Jets dealt with the Colts, they would have called the Giants.  Suggests the Giants have identified their choice at 2...whoever that is.  ....and they must not think that player will be around at 6.  This suggests QB more than anything.  Doesn't rule out Barkley.   Just says they like someone at 2.

 

colts GM on record saying they took other calls...didn't want to exit top 10.  That doesn't mean they spoke to bills, but it could mean they spoke to Bills, and/or Arizona, and/or Miami maybe...and others not suspected of wanting to go up.

 

Further suggests that the Jets have either A).  at least 3 QBs they rank the same or B) the one they rank higher is the one they must think will be there.  That continues to lead me to think Mayfield is their guy as I do not beleive Cleveland or the Giants are in on him.  in the case of the Jets....they must be good with Darnold and rosen being gone before 3.  

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14 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The current situation is that Beane and the Bills are currently in the 12th draft spot. He would like to go high enough to get a QB, but has to find a team willing to move down to 12 plus pick up a bunch of extra picks. There may not be a team with a high pick willing to do this . 

yes.

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I believe the Browns and Jets will use their first picks on QBs and right now they are both looking at Darnold and Rosen. The wild card...for both the Jets and the Bills...is the Giants. If the Giants are planning to take the replacement for 37-year-old Manning, then the Jets have given up an awful lot to grab Mayfield, Allen, maybe Jackson because the Giants will take whichever one is left from Darnold and Rosen. On the other hand, if the Giants aren't looking for a QB but want to take Barkley, and if the Bills really, really want either Darnold or Rosen, here's a three-way deal scenario that would work. The Bills trade up for Cleveland's #4 pick, giving up whatever they have to. That still leaves the Jets in front of them so they have to trade for the Giants #2. It would be a risk for the Giants that the Jets might take Barkley but maybe they'd find the risk worth it for a few more picks.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

Lots and lots of folks here with some kneejerk reactions to todays trade are getting some things severely wrong as they try and make sense of what is going on.  

 

1.  Cleveland.  They are taking a QB.  I don't claim to know which one, but it will be a QB.  The barkley talk at 1 AND/OR 4 is rediculous.  They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal this past week to be the feature back.  They have Duke Johnson, one of the few consistant performers on their roster as the 3rd down guy.  Doresy has a LONG LONG history of being with front offices that don't take RB high, or when has made the choices himself, has NOT taken RB high.  He drafted Kareem Hunt in round 3 last year....his entire careers work and experience indicate that he is clearly in the "you can find a RB later" school of thought.  It's a deep RB draft.  They aren't taking Barkley at 1, AND they aren't taking him at 4.  

 

2.  NY Giants.  Everything has a price...and the Giants can demand a ransom here, you would think...but can they really?  Barkley is a more obvious fit here, they have a GM who last year spent a 1st round pick on Christian McCaffery.  They have a need at RB...but they have plenty of holes to fill, deep RB draft.  Consider the 2019 QB class SUCKS. (at least it seems that way now...granted we are a year out, but it's not good)  They were all geared up to move on from Eli at the end of last season.  They still understand that Eli is just about done as it is even if they aren't moving on just yet.  They are in a great position to take his successor.  Again, looking forward a year....when the QB crop is lacking and you don't know where you are drafting, they may recognize the position they are in as the best chance to get their next QB.  They may well be prepared to have a 2019 in which there is no Eli, no Beckham, and they are starting over....could get a jump on that with the QB now.  Let's examine the trade market for this pick.  1QB off the board at 1.  Let's assume that is either Darnold or Allen.  The Jet's are at 3, willing to move up to 2 if they must to get Mayfield (speculation on my part, but I believe that is their man.)  Cleveland with 4, not moving up.  Denver at 5.  They aren't moving up.   They are staying put.  So, no trade partner there.  6.  Colts.  no reason to move up to six after moving out of 3....they are also staying in place at 6 for a top NON QB.  Tampa at 7.  Not moving on from Winston (nor should they, he's shown enough to continue as the unquestioned starter)  8.  Chicago.  They have Trubisky.  They aren't in the trade up market, and if they were to move up it isn't for QB.  No reason to go to 2.  9.  49ers.  Garroppolo.  10. Raiders. Carr.  11.  Miami.  They are sticking with Tannehill...see below.  12.  Buffalo.  NEED QB.  13.  Redskins.  Alex Smith.  14. Packers. Rodgers.  15 Arizona.  Signed Bradford..but could use drafted QB.  16. Baltimore.  Not trading up for QB this year..have Flacco.  The trade market is stay in place or move to 12 and picks with Buffalo.  Arizona has no ammo.  

 

3.  Jets.  They will take a QB here....I am almost sure it's Mayfield.  They are in great shape if this is their man...the Giants would be the desination for Rosen if they take one.  If the Giants can figure out the Jets target, and it isn't the QB they are after, they could fleece the jets to flop spots.

 

4. Cleveland....could trade out, but if you read the market for the 2nd pick....it's the same market.  Cleveland will spend this pick on a top NON QB prospect.

 

5.  Denver at 5.  They aren't moving up.  Let's look at this closely...it's another team alot of folks here haven't paid close attention to.  They signed Keenum for starter money.  They have a coaching staff who has THIS YEAR.  The GM has been plauged by poor QB choices.  Paxton Lynch is still on the roster.  They have re-upped their WR's for the next two seasons.  They are in WIN NOW mode while they percieve their window is open.  They need more day 1 starter help, not developmental QB help.  They are NOT a threat to move up now, nor are they a threat to take a QB where they sit.  They are in on a top Non QB prospect at 5.  They are staying put.

 

6. Colts.  Chose to trade with Jets for a reason...wanting a top NON QB prospect and can still get that here.

 

Miami just restructed Tannehill...he's there for 2 more seasons, or they take a giant cap hit to let him go.

 

The Bills are still in line to get a QB...at 12.  The Jets move up has settled the situation at the top....the Problem here is the Bills Board.  is the QB that will be left, is he "the man?"  

 

speculating that the draft goes 1.Darnold. 2. Rosen. 3 Mayfield.  That leaves ALLEN, JACKSON....and Rudolph.  It is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that Buffalo passes at 12 now even, and waits for 21 to see how it shakes out.  I am sure Jackson and Rudolph will have made it that far..and possibly even Allen.  That leaves the following possible scenarios.

 

Best Case:  at 2, the Giants keep the pick AND take a NON QB.  Jet's go Mayfield...that leave Rosen for the taking, and the Bills with plenty of Ammo and all sorts of trade partners to work with to move up and get him.

 

More Likely Case:  Giants don't show their hand, Jets get itchy about their man, fear someone could move up, Giants know Bills have need for Rosen....takes 2 to have a market....they have a market...Bills sell the farm to move up.  12, 21, other picks.  Get Rosen.

 

Alternate Likely Case:  Giants convince Jets someone is about to move to 2 and get their guy.  Jet's swap with Giants.  Jets take Mayfield anyhow.  Giants and Bills talk.  Bills still pay ransom to move up to 3 for Rosen.

 

Better Case:  Rosen still on board  as draft progresses....closer he gets to 12, less ransom the bills pay to move up....perhaps he lasts to 12.  Beane is hero.  

 

Not knowing what the Giants think of Rosen and others, and not being sure who the Jets want keeps things cloudy, but the Bills are not in horrible shape, they haven't missed out...and the Jets moving to 3 clarifies the market and allows time to consider options and plan.

 

Props, OP, for having a well-thought out and original take. I, for one, appreciate it!

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1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

Some other things to discern from this.  Certainly if the Jets dealt with the Colts, they would have called the Giants.  Suggests the Giants have identified their choice at 2...whoever that is.  ....and they must not think that player will be around at 6.  This suggests QB more than anything.  Doesn't rule out Barkley.   Just says they like someone at 2.

 

colts GM on record saying they took other calls...didn't want to exit top 10.  That doesn't mean they spoke to bills, but it could mean they spoke to Bills, and/or Arizona, and/or Miami maybe...and others not suspected of wanting to go up.

 

Further suggests that the Jets have either A).  at least 3 QBs they rank the same or B) the one they rank higher is the one they must think will be there.  That continues to lead me to think Mayfield is their guy as I do not beleive Cleveland or the Giants are in on him.  in the case of the Jets....they must be good with Darnold and rosen being gone before 3.  

One other item to consider.  Any stupid notion the Brown would take Barkley at 1 should be dead now....The Jets didn't go to 3 to take a NON QB.  Cleveland would be making a mistake trying to figure out what will happen at 2 and 3 before taking a QB at 4.  They simply have no reason at all to pass the QB they want at 1.  They are still going to get a very valuable piece at 4.  QB 1.  Another way to look at it.  in picks 2 and 3, you KNOW at least one of those is a QB.  (Jets) the 2nd MIGHT be also.  If you want Barkley (I do not think they will take Barkley at 4) at 4, he has a 50/50 chance of being there.  There is NOT a 50/50 chance at the QB first on your board being there at 4.  Browns QB at 1.  Bet the house on it.

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