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Serious Josh Allen Question


Jesse

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Ok my last post was just a joke but I do want and need to talk to people about Josh Allen. Whether you're for or against him, I just need someone else to look at a few minutes of this tape:

 

 

Jeremy White mentioned it a few days ago and tweeted the link. It's 34 minutes of "positive" tape on Allen. Matt Waldman acknowledges that it's looking at Allen's good traits and I believe JW did too. My question here is, has anyone really acknowledged that his "good" game tape is against Utah State, New Mexico State, and Central Michigan? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when we talk about this guy seriously being a top round pick. Look at his stats! It's like Tyrod, but with interceptions. 

 

I'm just trying to keep myself from jumping off of a bridge over this guy. I'll be the first to admit I wasn't all in on Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield this season, but by comparison I would happily have one of those guys before Allen. Allen seems like a project that will take a LONG time. I'm sweating. 

 

 

 

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He's a legit physical talent, and has a cannon arm.

He's super raw and could take 2 years sitting before he's ready.

He's got a huge ceiling, but also a super low floor and high bust potential.

If you like him, you have to be ready to take that huge gamble, and be willing to sit him and be patient while he develops, and be willing to accept that he might blow up in your face.

 

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4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

He's a legit physical talent, and has a cannon arm.

He's super raw and could take 2 years sitting before he's ready.

He's got a huge ceiling, but also a super low floor and high bust potential.

If you like him, you have to be ready to take that huge gamble, and be willing to sit him and be patient while he develops, and be willing to accept that he might blow up in your face.

 

Sounds about right.....

 

It also sounds just like what everyone was saying about Paxton Lynch when he came out. 

 

I want this guy nowhere near the Buffalo Bills.

 

Whatever it takes for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.

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Jesse, I'm with you.  It all basically sounds like he has to be trained to be an NFL QB.  When does that ever work out?  The guys with the tools and skills hardly make it these days.

 

It's like saying that just because I have a pulse and can read, I can be in NASA.  Just need to teach me a few things

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Ok my last post was just a joke but I do want and need to talk to people about Josh Allen. Whether you're for or against him, I just need someone else to look at a few minutes of this tape:

 

 

Jeremy White mentioned it a few days ago and tweeted the link. It's 34 minutes of "positive" tape on Allen. Matt Waldman acknowledges that it's looking at Allen's good traits and I believe JW did too. My question here is, has anyone really acknowledged that his "good" game tape is against Utah State, New Mexico State, and Central Michigan? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when we talk about this guy seriously being a top round pick. Look at his stats! It's like Tyrod, but with interceptions. 

 

I'm just trying to keep myself from jumping off of a bridge over this guy. I'll be the first to admit I wasn't all in on Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield this season, but by comparison I would happily have one of those guys before Allen. Allen seems like a project that will take a LONG time. I'm sweating. 

 

 

 

I brought  up to other threads for you to look at.  

Edited by mead107
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54 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Ok my last post was just a joke but I do want and need to talk to people about Josh Allen. Whether you're for or against him, I just need someone else to look at a few minutes of this tape:

 

 

Jeremy White mentioned it a few days ago and tweeted the link. It's 34 minutes of "positive" tape on Allen. Matt Waldman acknowledges that it's looking at Allen's good traits and I believe JW did too. My question here is, has anyone really acknowledged that his "good" game tape is against Utah State, New Mexico State, and Central Michigan? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when we talk about this guy seriously being a top round pick. Look at his stats! It's like Tyrod, but with interceptions. 

 

I'm just trying to keep myself from jumping off of a bridge over this guy. I'll be the first to admit I wasn't all in on Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield this season, but by comparison I would happily have one of those guys before Allen. Allen seems like a project that will take a LONG time. I'm sweating. 

 

There's no doubt about it. He looks... bad. 


I just cannot imagine them taking him over Rosen or Darnold, or even Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson. The only way I think he ends up with the Bills is if we don't move up, and he falls to 12... in which case, it's going to be AJ McCarron this year and probably next.

 

That's what I'm telling myself, anyway. 

 

11 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

He's a legit physical talent, and has a cannon arm.

He's super raw and could take 2 years sitting before he's ready.

He's got a huge ceiling, but also a super low floor and high bust potential.

If you like him, you have to be ready to take that huge gamble, and be willing to sit him and be patient while he develops, and be willing to accept that he might blow up in your face.

 

100%. 

 

The Bills aren't going to do it, IMO. They have set themselves up where the Rookie QB will almost start a some point in his first season, if not Week 1.... Allen just doesn't fit that scenario. He makes more sense to go with a team that has a proper fallback plan or don't need him to play for a few years.

 

Jets, Giants, Browns, even Broncos... he's going to make sense to a team like that, in that position, more than he will make sense for the Bills. 

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14 minutes ago, sven233 said:

Sounds about right.....

 

It also sounds just like what everyone was saying about Paxton Lynch when he came out. 

 

I want this guy nowhere near the Buffalo Bills.

 

Whatever it takes for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.

 

Yeah I'm not advocating for or against him.

I'm very much just stating what's true about him.

 

-best physically built gifted QB in the draft for a traditional passer (Jackson is obv a better runner)

-rocket arm

-big build, strong

-inconsistent mechanics

-inconsistent accuracy due to mechanics

-needs at least a full year, maybe 2 before he should be considered ready to start

-huge ceiling

-low low floor

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Ok my last post was just a joke but I do want and need to talk to people about Josh Allen. Whether you're for or against him, I just need someone else to look at a few minutes of this tape:

 

 

Jeremy White mentioned it a few days ago and tweeted the link. It's 34 minutes of "positive" tape on Allen. Matt Waldman acknowledges that it's looking at Allen's good traits and I believe JW did too. My question here is, has anyone really acknowledged that his "good" game tape is against Utah State, New Mexico State, and Central Michigan? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when we talk about this guy seriously being a top round pick. Look at his stats! It's like Tyrod, but with interceptions. 

 

I'm just trying to keep myself from jumping off of a bridge over this guy. I'll be the first to admit I wasn't all in on Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield this season, but by comparison I would happily have one of those guys before Allen. Allen seems like a project that will take a LONG time. I'm sweating. 

 

 

 

His supporting cast is what mitigates the competition level.  If you believe that a QB’s supporting cast influences his performance (pretty obvious), then you can at least wonder if Allen could be really good in the NFL.  He was running for his life and had limited talent at receiver and RB.  

 

Does that mean that he may be very good in NFL?  Not necessarily, but he does have the physical talent to be picked high.

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47 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

He's a legit physical talent, and has a cannon arm.

He's super raw and could take 2 years sitting before he's ready.

He's got a huge ceiling, but also a super low floor and high bust potential.

If you like him, you have to be ready to take that huge gamble, and be willing to sit him and be patient while he develops, and be willing to accept that he might blow up in your face.

 

Can't do this with top 10 pick!! They need to play immediately 

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23 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

His supporting cast is what mitigates the competition level.  If you believe that a QB’s supporting cast influences his performance (pretty obvious), then you can at least wonder if Allen could be really good in the NFL.  He was running for his life and had limited talent at receiver and RB.  

 

Does that mean that he may be very good in NFL?  Not necessarily, but he does have the physical talent to be picked high.

The tell-tale stats in regards to this question are the adjusted completion percentages and catcheable ball numbers.

 

Someone posted these in another thread and they show Allen still maintained really bad stats, while other QBs like Jackson, particularly, got better.

 

These seem to confirm that Allen really does have terrible accuracy.

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I will put down that whatever team drafts Josh Allen in the top 10, will fire their GM or HC within 2 years of drafting the kid. No owner is going to let a top 10 QB sit for 2 years to maybe if lucky be good. If you need that much development, see you in the second round or later

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Based on all the moves that Beane has made this offseason, I am going to trust and believe in the QB he selects.  Beane is unreal.  The man got a 3rd round pick for Tyrod Taylor for crying out loud, and used a guy who barely played last year to trade up to the number 12 pick.  He solidified the dline in one day.  If he selects Josh Allen, I am going to believe he knows more than we do.

Edited by PIZ
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16 minutes ago, PIZ said:

Based on all the moved that Beane has made this offseason, I am going to trust and believe in the QB he selects.  Beane is unreal.  The man got a 3rd round pick for Tyrod Taylor for crying out loud, and used a guy who barely played last year to trade up to the number 12 pick.  He solidified the dline in one day.  If he selects Josh Allen, I am going to believe he knows more than we do.

 

This.

 

The other thing is they're going to take a guy they know they can work with. I don't think that will be Josh Allen, but if it is, I have some faith they will know what they're doing.

 

I know Allen looks like EJ Manuel 2.0, and he probably will be exactly that... but in fairness to EJ, he was never considered a 1st round pick by anyone except Doug Whaley or Buddy Nix, whoever gets the credit/blame for that one. EJ wasn't the guy that Marrone & Hackett wanted. They took the job hoping for Ryan Fitzpatrick. They said that publicly in one of their interviews. 

 

If it is Allen, it will be because there's consensus with Beane & McDermott & Daboll... they've earned a degree of trust, I think.

 

ALSO

 

I've never heard of this guy — Kyle Pernick, I think? Can we draft him?? Looks like a more accurate Allen!

 

 

 

Edited by LA Grant
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47 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Does he really have a huge ceiling?

 

I argue that inaccurate QBs actually have a very low ceiling.

It really boils down to WHY teams believe he’s inaccurate. Is it because he’s not coordinated enough I figure out where the receiver will be when his pass arrives? Or is it the messy footwork making it difficult to throw it with consistency? The latter is fixable. The former is not. 

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1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

He's a legit physical talent, and has a cannon arm.

He's super raw and could take 2 years sitting before he's ready.

He's got a huge ceiling, but also a super low floor and high bust potential.

If you like him, you have to be ready to take that huge gamble, and be willing to sit him and be patient while he develops, and be willing to accept that he might blow up in your face.

 

The kid was scrawny when he first entered college and grew into his bigger frame. Plus, he only played two years in College and his last year was on a very bad team. He played much better in the senior bowl with better coaching and a better surrounding cast.

 

I think it should take less than two years to develop him as an NFL starter. But wow, a possible Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers at the end of that development time.  

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Waldman likes to hear himself talk, doesn't he.  I think that with the signing of AJ McCarron, the Bills have tried to create the kind of situation where a young QB like Allen would not be pressured by having to start from day one.  That's assuming McCarron can be an effective starter for a full season or more.  He's under contract for two years.  I'm not saying Allen is the guy in the minds of the Bills' brain trust, but if he is, the Bills may be creating a healthy environment for him to grow.

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