You can only get a good QB in the top 3

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

1.  NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year.

 

2.  NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on.  By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter.

 

 

Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable.  After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route.  You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster. 

 

 

 

That's all fine and dandy but drafting JP Losman or EJ Manuel at #1 wouldn't have made either significantly better (although Losman might have been better playing for somebody other than Jauron).    Being drafted #1 overall didn't prevent David Carr or JaMarcus Russell from busting.  Draft position isn't what determines a QB's success or failure.

[gobills1212]

Hold on hold on... I just gotta go grab my pencil, eraser, ruler, abacus, triangle, and my 1983 pro football weekly draft edition and I'll be rrriiiggghhhtttt bbbaaaccckkkk.....

[Batman1876]

6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

That's all fine and dandy but drafting JP Losman or EJ Manuel at #1 wouldn't have made either significantly better (although Losman might have been better playing for somebody other than Jauron).    Being drafted #1 overall didn't prevent David Carr or JaMarcus Russell from busting.  Draft position isn't what determines a QB's success or failure.

No but their predicted future success does determine their draft order.  So drafting a QB high does not mean they will succeed but when teams all think that a guy will be successful they draft him high. I’m uncomfortable gambling that the Bills scouts are the best  and were unable to find a hidden gem that everyone else missed. 

Edited March 15, 2018 by Batman1876

[Cripple Creek]

6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven.  We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us.   Moving to #2 would cost us at least:

#12 and #22 in the first round ,

#21 in the second round   (56 overall)

#1 in the third round  (65th overall)

 

leaving us with #2 in the first round,    overall #56 in the second round,   and #96 overall in the third round.  That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers.

 

If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds:  overall #22,   #53,   #56,   #54  &  #96.    That is enough to rebuild these positions.  Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us.   Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot.  I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB.

 

I am a firm believer in the “see your guy, go get your guy” method of drafting, especially where QBs are concerned. If Beany and team have one guy then they must get him. If they have all grouped closely then they can wait. If they think the top group is over valued they can wait. The nice thing is we do hold all of the cards we need to do whatever they choose.

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  The evaluation that the pro's use to evaluate the QB prospects is the only one that matters.  It does not matter what you, me, some guy who runs a blog, or Kiper thinks.  Could be 4 off the board by pick 6 or it could be 2 by pick 6 or it could be 1 by pick 6.  I don't really get your top three analogy.  It seems a little arbitrary to me.  And it is only one sample.  I know the '83 draft was one of a kind but if you looked at 3 or 4 others that were similar would you still find that two out of the top three were studs in their pro careers?  What about '98 when QB's were 1-2 in that draft?  We have Manning then we have Leaf.  One will be a HOF-er and one during his first year in the league a person could see the flames of Leaf burning up from miles away.

Well, the "top 3" was chosen by a poster on a different board who did a pretty good original post that I stole the info from.   [  https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs  ]     He went from the '83 draft on.    Should it have been the top two picks, or the top five picks-?   I don't know- if you think there is a sensible cut-off, then you can make a case for it. Note that 1->3 =7800 and the next 5  ( 4->8)  = 8000 for what it is worth. So there is a break in the "price

Do you think that there is ONE and ACCURATE evaluation that the pros use?  I don't think so. The pros do know more and spend more time and energy than my couple of hours. We all got free evaluations and views from all the "experts", but at the end of the day, they are throwing darts just like I am.

 

By the way, stealing from that post again, here is a list of failures from the groupings

 

top 3 pick failures:   "  7 out of the 33, or 21.2%, are "Red". Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer"

 

rest of 1st round failures:    " 23 out of 45 - 51.1% - of the QBs taken in the 1st round outside the top were "Red" label. Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge. "

17 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

Hold on hold on... I just gotta go grab my pencil, eraser, ruler, abacus, triangle, and my 1983 pro football weekly draft edition and I'll be rrriiiggghhhtttt bbbaaaccckkkk.....

  What?  No slide rule?

[FearLess Price]

After the past 17 years of futility. Im surprised theres fans that still dont want us to trade into the top 3.

 

Is continuing to draft CBs, underpreforming DEs, or trading up for WRs gonna get us back to the playoffs? Hell no. Trade up for the franchise QB and call it.

[maryland-bills-fan]

14 minutes ago, FearLess Price said:

After the past 17 years of futility. Im surprised theres fans that still dont want us to trade into the top 3.

 

Is continuing to draft CBs, underpreforming DEs, or trading up for WRs gonna get us back to the playoffs? Hell no. Trade up for the franchise QB and call it.

Remember that 20% bust rate for drafting a top 3 draft pick QB.   You can sell the farm and STILL not get your saviour- and then you don't have the farm (missed players) either.

[P51]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  The evaluation that the pro's use to evaluate the QB prospects is the only one that matters.  It does not matter what you, me, some guy who runs a blog, or Kiper thinks.  Could be 4 off the board by pick 6 or it could be 2 by pick 6 or it could be 1 by pick 6.  I don't really get your top three analogy.  It seems a little arbitrary to me.  And it is only one sample.  I know the '83 draft was one of a kind but if you looked at 3 or 4 others that were similar would you still find that two out of the top three were studs in their pro careers?  What about '98 when QB's were 1-2 in that draft?  We have Manning then we have Leaf.  One will be a HOF-er and one during his first year in the league a person could see the flames of Leaf burning up from miles away.

 

The ones the pro's use is the one that matters for them. Ive seen them before and used them myself, regardless everyone is different and every teams evaluation is different, some are better than what the Joe's and the Shmo's come up with and some are not. Yes any number of Qb's could be gone by pick 6... The top 3 analogy comes from the another poster using the top 3 as a high indicator of success, and the wide belief by many including current GM's and scouts belief in season (before the BS season started) that there were 3-4 franchise level QB's in this draft. Looking at previous drafts, the odds of where QB's are picked (yes some bust, some dont), the greatest chance of success is to move up into the top 3 and get a QB, the Bills not moving up, not taking chances at QB has worked really well the last 2 decades. This is a discussion board? No?

 

Every draft has different strengths and weakness, I believe that this draft is the most similar to the 83' draft ever, and like the 83" draft there will be busts, I would hope the Bills would ID 2 or 3 guys who they feel like are the future and instead of sitting still, use there resources and make a move to land that guy(s), based on their evaluations, make it happen not hope he falls to 12, while there are busts high in the draft, its clear the higher you pick one, the better the odds are that he will turn into a franchise guy. They can wait 2 more decades and hope they hit the lottery in 6th round and B.J. Babin in the 2051 draft works out like Brady did, or Ryan Leaf Jr. in the 3rd in the 2032 draft is the next Wilson...

 

I thought there was enough reason in there not be completely arbitrary, so my apologies. 83' was one sample, but its the best sample in terms of overall depth at the QB position pre-draft. There is also the 04' draft where the top 3 guys were rated similarly to this draft and all 3 turned out to be studs, but to get one Buffalo had to move up as would have many teams that needed QB's, they were unable to do so and unwilling to pay the price, and history does not favor Buffalo sitting still. 

 

I guess for me it boils down to them using foresight and their resources to make their own destiny at the QB position. I know its just some random guys opinion on the TBD message board, but this is a draft where moving up for a QB will be worth it, the prospects are good enough, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold have shown NFL skill sets. 

 

What do you hope the Bills do in this draft?

 

[ndirish1978]

6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

You don't see it in college anymore.  It was never run in the pro's.  Defenders are too fast to the sideline in the pro's because they have the cream of the college players.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

We might as well run the Wishbone I guess. Worked in the past should work out right?

 

A blind man walked into a bar one night. One of the patrons at the bar saw him and helped him get to a barstool and get a drink. After a few minutes, the blind man leaned over to his new friend and said, "I just heard the world's best blonde joke. Would you like to hear it?"

The other man said, "Friend, before you say another word, there's something you need to know."

"What's that?" the blind man asked.

"There are five people besides you in this bar. The bartender is blonde. The boucer is blonde. There are two women sitting at the end of the bar. One is an off-duty police officer, and the other is a Marine Corps gunnery sergeant, and they're both blond. I'm six-foot-four, two hundred and sixty pounds, and I've got a third degree black belt in karate, and I'm blonde.

"So," the man concluded, "Are you sure you really want to tell that joke?"

The blind man thought about it for a minute and said, "No, not if I'm going to have to explain it five times."

[Tyrod's friend]

6 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

The ones the pro's use is the one that matters for them. Ive seen them before and used them myself, regardless everyone is different and every teams evaluation is different, some are better than what the Joe's and the Shmo's come up with and some are not. Yes any number of Qb's could be gone by pick 6... The top 3 analogy comes from the another poster using the top 3 as a high indicator of success, and the wide belief by many including current GM's and scouts belief in season (before the BS season started) that there were 3-4 franchise level QB's in this draft. Looking at previous drafts, the odds of where QB's are picked (yes some bust, some dont), the greatest chance of success is to move up into the top 3 and get a QB, the Bills not moving up, not taking chances at QB has worked really well the last 2 decades. This is a discussion board? No?

 

Every draft has different strengths and weakness, I believe that this draft is the most similar to the 83' draft ever, and like the 83" draft there will be busts, I would hope the Bills would ID 2 or 3 guys who they feel like are the future and instead of sitting still, use there resources and make a move to land that guy(s), based on their evaluations, make it happen not hope he falls to 12, while there are busts high in the draft, its clear the higher you pick one, the better the odds are that he will turn into a franchise guy. They can wait 2 more decades and hope they hit the lottery in 6th round and B.J. Babin in the 2051 draft works out like Brady did, or Ryan Leaf Jr. in the 3rd in the 2032 draft is the next Wilson...

 

I thought there was enough reason in there not be completely arbitrary, so my apologies. 83' was one sample, but its the best sample in terms of overall depth at the QB position pre-draft. There is also the 04' draft where the top 3 guys were rated similarly to this draft and all 3 turned out to be studs, but to get one Buffalo had to move up as would have many teams that needed QB's, they were unable to do so and unwilling to pay the price, and history does not favor Buffalo sitting still. 

 

I guess for me it boils down to them using foresight and their resources to make their own destiny at the QB position. I know its just some random guys opinion on the TBD message board, but this is a draft where moving up for a QB will be worth it, the prospects are good enough, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold have shown NFL skill sets. 

 

What do you hope the Bills do in this draft?

 

I'd disagree with the 83 draft, if only because 2012 is so much more recent and similar on so many levels.

The first pick was universal, and owned by the Colts and they took Luck. Similarly, I think Darnold is ahead of the next guy and is owned by the Browns who should take him. We know what happened to the team that moved up to get Griffin - their draft was a wasteland for the next two years and the organization was hurt. Their only recourse was that their fourth round pick hit. Will we play the role of the Redskins here? Or Philadelphia? The difference is that in 2016 there simply wasn't the depth of QBs thought to be roughly equivilant. There wasn't much of a choice - either you had Wentz or Goff. 

The thing is that all 8 2012 QBs were considered - at the least, by NFL Tracker - close. And all of the QBs achieved differing levels of success. There wasn't any need to leap forward. 

I'd say go big or go backward. Play for Darnold, and impact to be damned for future organization impact. Wentz, Winston, Mariotta, Luck, and yeah, Griffin - get it. If it costs 12, 22 and next years 1st, so be it. Get the #1 pick in the draft. Cleveland has shown they are stupid enough to make the deal.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Whatever the Bills do, I am going to turn around, say its the best thing since sliced bread and defend it to the death.  Definition of a homer. Been doing this for 50 years and haven't learned yet.  No super bowl wins either.   sigh..........

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

The ones the pro's use is the one that matters for them. Ive seen them before and used them myself, regardless everyone is different and every teams evaluation is different, some are better than what the Joe's and the Shmo's come up with and some are not. Yes any number of Qb's could be gone by pick 6... The top 3 analogy comes from the another poster using the top 3 as a high indicator of success, and the wide belief by many including current GM's and scouts belief in season (before the BS season started) that there were 3-4 franchise level QB's in this draft. Looking at previous drafts, the odds of where QB's are picked (yes some bust, some dont), the greatest chance of success is to move up into the top 3 and get a QB, the Bills not moving up, not taking chances at QB has worked really well the last 2 decades. This is a discussion board? No?

 

Every draft has different strengths and weakness, I believe that this draft is the most similar to the 83' draft ever, and like the 83" draft there will be busts, I would hope the Bills would ID 2 or 3 guys who they feel like are the future and instead of sitting still, use there resources and make a move to land that guy(s), based on their evaluations, make it happen not hope he falls to 12, while there are busts high in the draft, its clear the higher you pick one, the better the odds are that he will turn into a franchise guy. They can wait 2 more decades and hope they hit the lottery in 6th round and B.J. Babin in the 2051 draft works out like Brady did, or Ryan Leaf Jr. in the 3rd in the 2032 draft is the next Wilson...

 

I thought there was enough reason in there not be completely arbitrary, so my apologies. 83' was one sample, but its the best sample in terms of overall depth at the QB position pre-draft. There is also the 04' draft where the top 3 guys were rated similarly to this draft and all 3 turned out to be studs, but to get one Buffalo had to move up as would have many teams that needed QB's, they were unable to do so and unwilling to pay the price, and history does not favor Buffalo sitting still. 

 

I guess for me it boils down to them using foresight and their resources to make their own destiny at the QB position. I know its just some random guys opinion on the TBD message board, but this is a draft where moving up for a QB will be worth it, the prospects are good enough, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold have shown NFL skill sets. 

 

What do you hope the Bills do in this draft?

 

   Yes, it is a discussion board and I don't hate you for having a different opinion.  I guess I am used to the guys who have the opinion to move up to pick 2 or 3 being combative if somebody differs with them.  I would add that I think an interview can be a big wild card and will matter when it comes to somebody such as Rosen (potentially).  He has made it known he does not want to be in Cleveland and might have similar feelings about Buffalo.  He might even chance throwing the interview with the Bills if he did not otherwise think it would hurt his draft standing.  Rosen interviewing poorly may not come to light publicly but would be ample reason for Beane to push him down on the list.

 

  As to my hopes and I believe Beane might be considering doing this would be to hold pick 12 for Roquan Smith to anchor the defense.  Whether getting a vet QB was intentional or unintentional it does open the door to allow a rookie QB to sit for a while.  I think that Allen is viable in this scenario and probably could be had at pick 10 or thereabouts.  Use 22, a second, and another pick to get up to 10 to grab Allen.  Now we have Allen, Smith, and can address OL, WR, TE with our other high picks.  

 

[gobills1212]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Well, the "top 3" was chosen by a poster on a different board who did a pretty good original post that I stole the info from.   [  https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs  ]     He went from the '83 draft on.    Should it have been the top two picks, or the top five picks-?   I don't know- if you think there is a sensible cut-off, then you can make a case for it. Note that 1->3 =7800 and the next 5  ( 4->8)  = 8000 for what it is worth. So there is a break in the "price

Do you think that there is ONE and ACCURATE evaluation that the pros use?  I don't think so. The pros do know more and spend more time and energy than my couple of hours. We all got free evaluations and views from all the "experts", but at the end of the day, they are throwing darts just like I am.

 

By the way, stealing from that post again, here is a list of failures from the groupings

 

top 3 pick failures:   "  7 out of the 33, or 21.2%, are "Red". Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer"

 

rest of 1st round failures:    " 23 out of 45 - 51.1% - of the QBs taken in the 1st round outside the top were "Red" label. Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge. "

  What?  No slide rule?

touche!

[Boca BIlls]

How about the Bills go get the QB they want... Instead of settling for whoever is left. 

[Jay_Fixit]

I think the posters (and people) that think 4 QB’s will go top 10 are gonna be surprised come draft day.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I'm really not sure what you're saying here.

 

It is notable that since the current CBA and the rookie salaries, the draft landscape has changed. Teams are a bit less reluctant to "pull the trigger" high in the draft since they won't be held to ransom for a cap-ruinous chunk of change on a QB who hasn't shown he can play.  1983 is not today.  The territory is different, the map is different.

 

You can get a good QB at any pick, in round of the draft, including "no round" (UDFA).  The question is "how likely is it?"

 

People have looked at this by hard numeric criteria (me among others), by years of starting in the league, and by "eyeball test".  While both the absolute numbers and the individual QB slither around a bit depending upon the methodology, the overall conclusions are remarkably consistent:

1) the odds of getting a long-term starter who can get you deep in the playoffs consistently with enough of a team, are highest in the top 3 picks.  Somewhere between 60-75%

2) top 5 picks, 50%

3) picks 11-20, 30%

4) picks 5-32 and the 2nd round, 20%

(the odds of a good QB actually drop to 20% from picks 5-10 and to 8% 21-32, but they're small number samples so unreliable)

5) 3rd and 4th round, 10-15%

6) after that, ~5% or less.

 

Now if you have a mathematical bent, you can calculate number of times you need to turn the crank to drop the odds of AVOIDING good QB to 5% or less:

1) top 3 picks: (using 75% hit rate) 2 times

2) top 5 picks (using 50% hit rate): 4 times

3) picks 11-20 (30% hit rate): 8 picks

4) picks 5-32 overall and 2nd round (19-22% hit rate): 12-15x

5) 3rd and 4th round (10-15% hit rate): 18-28x

6) 5th round and later (<5% hit rate): 58x

 

Now this is assuming that all teams have roughly equivalent information and pro-football talent evaluation/decision making, which is palpably untrue.  Being better at screening out "duds", tuning out "pre draft noise", and identifying what traits really drive QB success in the NFL can obviously better the chances.

 

I think it is an interesting point, though, for those who are afraid to "overspend" draft capital to move into the top 3 picks:

If you use 3 first-round picks to move into the top-3 picks, and you miss on your first shot and need to do it again in 3 years -you may still come out ahead on draft picks vs. using a single pick on Rd 1, 5-32 - where you might have to use 12 picks to achieve success.

 

Hmmmmmm.

[Domdab99]

Lol you have no idea who’s going to be a good QB and who’s not. No one does. That’s why the draft is a crapshoot

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm really not sure what you're saying here.

 

It is notable that since the current CBA and the rookie salaries, the draft landscape has changed. Teams are a bit less reluctant to "pull the trigger" high in the draft since they won't be held to ransom for a cap-ruinous chunk of change on a QB who hasn't shown he can play.  1983 is not today.  The territory is different, the map is different.

 

You can get a good QB at any pick, in round of the draft, including "no round" (UDFA).  The question is "how likely is it?"

 

People have looked at this by hard numeric criteria (me among others), by years of starting in the league, and by "eyeball test".  While both the absolute numbers and the individual QB slither around a bit depending upon the methodology, the overall conclusions are remarkably consistent:

1) the odds of getting a long-term starter who can get you deep in the playoffs consistently with enough of a team, are highest in the top 3 picks.  Somewhere between 60-75%

2) top 5 picks, 50%

3) picks 11-20, 30%

4) picks 5-32 and the 2nd round, 20%

(the odds of a good QB actually drop to 20% from picks 5-10 and to 8% 21-32, but they're small number samples so unreliable)

5) 3rd and 4th round, 10-15%

6) after that, ~5% or less.

 

Now if you have a mathematical bent, you can calculate number of times you need to turn the crank to drop the odds of AVOIDING good QB to 5% or less:

1) top 3 picks: (using 75% hit rate) 2 times

2) top 5 picks (using 50% hit rate): 4 times

3) picks 11-20 (30% hit rate): 8 picks

4) picks 5-32 overall and 2nd round (19-22% hit rate): 12-15x

5) 3rd and 4th round (10-15% hit rate): 18-28x

6) 5th round and later (<5% hit rate): 58x

 

Now this is assuming that all teams have roughly equivalent information and pro-football talent evaluation/decision making, which is palpably untrue.  Being better at screening out "duds", tuning out "pre draft noise", and identifying what traits really drive QB success in the NFL can obviously better the chances.

 

I think it is an interesting point, though, for those who are afraid to "overspend" draft capital to move into the top 3 picks:

If you use 3 first-round picks to move into the top-3 picks, and you miss on your first shot and need to do it again in 3 years -you may still come out ahead on draft picks vs. using a single pick on Rd 1, 5-32 - where you might have to use 12 picks to achieve success.

 

Hmmmmmm.

  It would be interesting to know how many of those picks were the result of staying in a draft slot and how many were move ups.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Deciding what is a successful QB and aligning that with their drafted position is a mushy piece of work.  I've tried that myself but found a better one here:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs

 

He compares the first three picks with the rest of the first round and with the 2nd and 3rd round.  GOLD is what you want.

TOP 3 PICKS

• 64% GOLD
• 15% GREEN
• 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!!  that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower}

1st round

• 33% GOLD
• 16% GREEN
• 51% RED..........................................{about half are BUSTS)

2nd and 3rd round

• 22% GOLD
• 13% GREEN
• 65% RED

============================

working from the OP data you can estimate/guesttimate the following

=============================

How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 /  %chance)
top 3  ..............1.56 picks
rest of 1st ......3.03 picks
2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks

==========================================

and what is the draft-value cost for each GOLD success?

pick..............# of tries................median DTV ............................"expected cost" = {# picks} X {DTV cost}

top 3............. 1.56 picks............... 2600.................................... 4,056
rest of 1st..... 3.03 picks................ 875 ....................................2,651
2n3 & 3rd ......4.54 picks............... 265..................................... 1,203

 

It is expensive to go up to a top 3 pick- unless you are already there. AND even that is not a sure thing.

 

 

 

The Buffalo Rumblings article is a good one, but the estimate/guestimate using 100/% chance is just incorrect.

First of all, in probability, you never get to 100% so 100/% chance - I have no idea where that comes from, I consulted the "better half" who is math+++ to my math+ - sorry, we think you're just wrong

 

The way to look at it is the odds of failure from repeated independent events.  If you have 64% odds of success, (1-.64) x the number of independent throws is your probability that you fail every time.  Then 1 - (probability of repeated failure) is your odds of success.

 

If you want 95% odds of success, the actual formula is log (0.05)/log (1-odds of success on each throw) = # of throws.

 

Got to run, later.