Steve Billieve Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: We have not backed ourselves into a corner. We have flexibility to move way up, we can stay where we are. We don't know what their board looks like for the QBs in the draft. Totally agree. I just think we have to draft a QB we like. And I also think that will require us to move up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I anticipate they'll move up and get Rosen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said: You never know what will happen. Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after. We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all. Do we change the game plan now? Deciding what is a successful QB and aligning that with their drafted position is a mushy piece of work. I've tried that myself but found a better one here: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs He compares the first three picks with the rest of the first round and with the 2nd and 3rd round. GOLD is what you want. TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} 1st round 33% GOLD 16% GREEN 51% RED..........................................{about half are BUSTS) 2nd and 3rd round 22% GOLD 13% GREEN 65% RED ============================ working from the OP data you can estimate/guesttimate the following ============================= How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance) top 3 ..............1.56 picks rest of 1st ......3.03 picks 2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks ========================================== and what is the draft-value cost for each GOLD success? pick..............# of tries................median DTV ............................"expected cost" = {# picks} X {DTV cost} top 3............. 1.56 picks............... 2600.................................... 4,056 rest of 1st..... 3.03 picks................ 875 ....................................2,651 2n3 & 3rd ......4.54 picks............... 265..................................... 1,203 It is expensive to go up to a top 3 pick- unless you are already there. AND even that is not a sure thing. Edited March 15, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round. ....... You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft? This is seriously flawed logic. It's as easy to miss on a QB in even in the greatest QB draft ever -- as they did in 1983 -- as it is to miss a QB in an average QB draft. More importantly, a great QB draft isn't about the number of prospects in the first round but how many good/great QBs actually come out of the draft. The team needs to judge prospects on their own merits, judged against an ideal, not judged against the other QBs in the class. If you can't get the QB you want, then it might be a wiser move to pass on the pretenders in the first round and take a lesser guy later in the draft, especially since some good QBs have come out of the later rounds in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1. NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year. 2. NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on. By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter. Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable. After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route. You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JXCOL3 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I am so sick of being in QB purgatory. Trade whatever you have to in order to get the QB they want. It is the only thing we have not done as an organization in 2 decades and I am so tired of finishing in the middle of the pack with some scrub QB. Lets try something new!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 3 hours ago, NewEra said: are suggesting we should just stay where we are and draft a QB with our the 22nd pick? it was a great draft even if you take out the QBs. I was going to say the same thing about it being a pretty good first round. The kind you don't see all that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven. We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us. Moving to #2 would cost us at least: #12 and #22 in the first round , #21 in the second round (56 overall) #1 in the third round (65th overall) leaving us with #2 in the first round, overall #56 in the second round, and #96 overall in the third round. That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers. If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds: overall #22, #53, #56, #54 & #96. That is enough to rebuild these positions. Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us. Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot. I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB. Shrill does not begin to describe it. What I think will happen is Beane will do his due diligence like any GM and make sure all the scenarios are worked through and the calls made to other GM's about what if regarding their slots. I think Beane waits until the day of the draft to make anymore moves and watches the draft unfold. If two QB's are off the board at picks 1 and 2 then he may move up to 3 to be sure to get his guy. If only one QB comes off by pick 4 and if Allen is still there when the Jets finish their selection then he makes a move to get in at 10 to pick Allen. There are no doubt more scenarios than that but those are my best guesses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P51 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out: Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit. Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you. Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it? SEL # TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL 1 Baltimore Colts John Elway QB Stanford 2 Los Angeles Rams Eric Dickerson RB Southern Methodist 3 Seattle Seahawks Curt Warner RB Penn State 4 Denver Broncos Chris Hinton G Northwestern 5 San Diego Chargers Billy Ray Smith Jr. LB Arkansas How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team. Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years? TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance)top 3 ..............1.56 picksrest of 1st ......3.03 picks2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer? With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 36 minutes ago, mjt328 said: 1. NFL history shows the vast majority of successful QBs are among the first 2-3 drafted in any given year. 2. NFL history shows that drafting success rates steadily decrease from the Top 5, to the Top 10, to the last half of the 1st Round, to the early 2nd Round, and so on. By the 4th or 5th Round, it's almost impossible to even find a marginal starter. Some of the fans on this board are unbelievable. After what this franchise has endured for the last two decades, many of you would STILL prefer to go the safe route. You would prefer to let the 3rd, 4th or 5th option fall to us - rather than get the pick of the litter in a strong QB class, JUST so we can have another Linebacker or Receiver on the roster. Well if it was only another LB or WR on the roster, I would absolutely agree. You can get those from the non-drafted college graduates. But that is not the case. We are talking about 3-5 players drafted in the first 3 rounds, which are most often starting players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Da webster guy Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, JXCOL3 said: I am so sick of being in QB purgatory. Trade whatever you have to in order to get the QB they want. It is the only thing we have not done as an organization in 2 decades and I am so tired of finishing in the middle of the pack with some scrub QB. Lets try something new!!! yes and if u hit on the qb you have him for a dozen years, most other positions you get your guy for his rookie deal and some other team overpays him in free agency 4 or 5 years later. if you get a franchise qb you dont let him go. Also a significantly longer career average for qb's than any other position. Twice the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, P51 said: There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out: Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit. Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you. Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it? SEL # TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL 1 Baltimore Colts John Elway QB Stanford 2 Los Angeles Rams Eric Dickerson RB Southern Methodist 3 Seattle Seahawks Curt Warner RB Penn State 4 Denver Broncos Chris Hinton G Northwestern 5 San Diego Chargers Billy Ray Smith Jr. LB Arkansas How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team. Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years? TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance)top 3 ..............1.56 picksrest of 1st ......3.03 picks2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer? With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not? I get greedy when I see the guys we could draft this year with 6 picks in the first three rounds........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Have a feeling we are either trading for #2 or #3 this year. Rosen or Darnold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 This is as stupid a statement as they come. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Jim Kelly, Ben Roethlesberger, and Aaron Rodgers all disagree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 47 minutes ago, P51 said: There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out: Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit. Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you. Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it? SEL # TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL 1 Baltimore Colts John Elway QB Stanford 2 Los Angeles Rams Eric Dickerson RB Southern Methodist 3 Seattle Seahawks Curt Warner RB Penn State 4 Denver Broncos Chris Hinton G Northwestern 5 San Diego Chargers Billy Ray Smith Jr. LB Arkansas How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team. Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years? TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance)top 3 ..............1.56 picksrest of 1st ......3.03 picks2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer? With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not? The evaluation that the pro's use to evaluate the QB prospects is the only one that matters. It does not matter what you, me, some guy who runs a blog, or Kiper thinks. Could be 4 off the board by pick 6 or it could be 2 by pick 6 or it could be 1 by pick 6. I don't really get your top three analogy. It seems a little arbitrary to me. And it is only one sample. I know the '83 draft was one of a kind but if you looked at 3 or 4 others that were similar would you still find that two out of the top three were studs in their pro careers? What about '98 when QB's were 1-2 in that draft? We have Manning then we have Leaf. One will be a HOF-er and one during his first year in the league a person could see the flames of Leaf burning up from miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Deciding what is a successful QB and aligning that with their drafted position is a mushy piece of work. I've tried that myself but found a better one here: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs He compares the first three picks with the rest of the first round and with the 2nd and 3rd round. GOLD is what you want. TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} 1st round 33% GOLD 16% GREEN 51% RED..........................................{about half are BUSTS) 2nd and 3rd round 22% GOLD 13% GREEN 65% RED ============================ working from the OP data you can estimate/guesttimate the following ============================= How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance) top 3 ..............1.56 picks rest of 1st ......3.03 picks 2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks ========================================== and what is the draft-value cost for each GOLD success? pick..............# of tries................median DTV ............................"expected cost" = {# picks} X {DTV cost} top 3............. 1.56 picks............... 2600.................................... 4,056 rest of 1st..... 3.03 picks................ 875 ....................................2,651 2n3 & 3rd ......4.54 picks............... 265..................................... 1,203 It is expensive to go up to a top 3 pick- unless you are already there. AND even that is not a sure thing. I can name 3 top 3 busts off the top of my head...JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith...I'd toss Vince Young in there too since he never became anything close to what people thought he would...so that makes 4...go check your numbers bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xsoldier54 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven. We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us. Moving to #2 would cost us at least: #12 and #22 in the first round , #21 in the second round (56 overall) #1 in the third round (65th overall) leaving us with #2 in the first round, overall #56 in the second round, and #96 overall in the third round. That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers. If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds: overall #22, #53, #56, #54 & #96. That is enough to rebuild these positions. Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us. Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot. I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB. I don't think it would cost that much. The two firsts and second round pick should get us into the top 5. If not, stay put and take what you get at 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I agree they should wait and take a QB they think is pretty ok. Chances are it won’t work out but then whoever gets the job after they are fired can take another shot. That guy probably won’t work out either but eventually after a couple of coaching regimes and a couple GMs the team will eventually get a decent QB and they will have spent less draft capital. We just need to be patient wait another 15 years, it will all work out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Well if it was only another LB or WR on the roster, I would absolutely agree. You can get those from the non-drafted college graduates. But that is not the case. We are talking about 3-5 players drafted in the first 3 rounds, which are most often starting players. I would rather have a Top 10 quarterback and a mediocre roster, than a mediocre quarterback and an elite roster. The only teams who have been able to MAINTAIN success for a lengthy period of time are those with TOP quarterbacks. Teams like Jacksonville are going to max out in 1-2 years. That franchise (especially the defense) is absolutely LOADED with talent. But their quarterback is sub-standard. By 2019-2020, the salary cap is going to catch up and they will be forced to purge a good chunk of the roster. Unless Blake Bortles takes a major step forward next year, that franchise will completely waste the opportunity. That is their window for success without a quarterback. The Colts have a terrible roster. But if Andrew Luck comes back healthy this year, they will be right in the middle of the playoff race. With even a little bit of talent, they have a much better chance at sustained/long-term success than Jacksonville. Until Luck is done, they will always have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P51 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I get greedy when I see the guys we could draft this year with 6 picks in the first three rounds........ I hear that, ideally (my greed) I would have liked to have signed Cousins and used the draft picks to fill in the roster with talent. I just dont see how they pass on these particular QB's given the need, nor do I see how they secure one of the top talents sitting at 12. I wish the Bills could be greedy and use those picks and hope and prey a QB they want falls to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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