Some concerning Josh Allen stats

[NewEra]

He has more upside than maybe any QB I’ve ever seen.  Arm might be the best I’ve ever seen.  Huge dude with good mobility.  What’s not to like?  His accuracy and decision making.  The two most important aspects of being a good qb,  if we draft him, over Rosen Darnold or Baker I’ll roll my eyes and sigh,  then I’ll jump on board and love the kid and hope that we can develop him properly.  Then wait........that’s the worst part about drafting him.  We have to be patient.  I don’t want to be patient. I’m like the chick in Willy wonka who eats all the gum/candy w/e it was.  I WANT IT NOW!!!

[Nihilarian]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

Matt Stafford 3 years in college he averaged 57.1 comp % at Georgia , his final year he finally hit 61 comp %,  55.7 the year before that.

Stafford, Cutler, Tyrod Taylor all had comp% below 60% in college and improved once they got to the NFL. It doesn't always work that way though. 

 

Allen played on a bad team in 2017 and was running for his life most of the time with receivers that dropped a lot of passes.

 

Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 players in this year's draft and Allen is listed at 14th behind Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield. Of those three listed the only one I like is Mayfield. All of them have warts IMO and Allen is no different. Rosen has durability issues and Darnold has fumbling issues. 

 

RANK

14

Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

 

 

Allen has ideal size, arm strength and mobility. At Wyoming, he split time underneath and in the shotgun. He has quick feet in his setup and a smooth, fluid release. He's at his best driving the ball to the outside. He generates outrageous velocity and can squeeze the ball into very tight windows. He must improve on touch throws, but he has shown the ability to change ball speed and throw with loft. He needs to throw with more anticipation and there are times where he really locks onto his initial read, which can lead to pass breakups and turnovers. While he has room to improve on his overall ball placement, there were numerous dropped balls by his receivers in every game I studied. Allen's combination of athleticism and strength allows him to avoid free rushers and shake off tacklers. He's an aggressive runner and he's been effective on designed QB runs as well as scrambles. Allen isn't a finished product, but he offers unlimited upside, provided his drafting team exercises patience.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He has more upside than maybe any QB I’ve ever seen.  Arm might be the best I’ve ever seen.  Huge dude with good mobility.  What’s not to like?  His accuracy and decision making.  The two most important aspects of being a good qb,  if we draft him, over Rosen Darnold or Baker I’ll roll my eyes and sigh,  then I’ll jump on board and love the kid and hope that we can develop him properly.  Then wait........that’s the worst part about drafting him.  We have to be patient.  I don’t want to be patient. I’m like the chick in Willy wonka who eats all the gum/candy w/e it was.  I WANT IT NOW!!!

 

I don't think he'd wait, you think Mccaron or Peterman would start over him? 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

I don't think he'd wait, you think Mccaron or Peterman would start over him? 

 

I think McCarron should start the whole year if we draft Allen.  Of course, if he completely sucks, go with whoever they think is more ready, Peterman or Allen.  Personally, I think Allen is best sitting for a whole year and learning.  Big time talent that they could be afraid of throwing into the fire.  Rightfully so. He needs work

[Nihilarian]

Just now, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

I don't think he'd wait, you think Mccaron or Peterman would start over him? 

I think AJ would be the starter no matter who they draft this year simply because they need to see what they have with him.  All of them have warts except perhaps Mayfield who's only real flaw is his height and even then I kinda doubt he starts. 

[Doc Brown]

For some reason anything below 59% (Carson Palmer (59.1%) and Matt Ryan (59.9%)) and odds are they're a bust.  Here's the 1st round QB's taken with a completion % below 59% in college since 1998:

 

Ryan Leaf

Akili Smith

Cade McNown

Michael Vick (running skills made him dynamic in NFL)

Joey Harrington

Kyle Boller

JP Losman

Jay Cutler

Brady Quinn

Matthew Stafford (to be fair he completed 62.1% his final year at Georgia)

Jake Locker

 

I'd consider two successful (Vick and Stafford), one average for a 1st round pick (Cutler) and the rest (8) busts.  That's a 73% bust rate and there's even caveats to the two hits.  I'd stay the heck away from this guy.

 

 

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, garybusey said:

Allen is the next Jim Kelly.

 

just wanted to be the first to say that after the Bills draft him. No matter how much you all think he sucks now, by training camp he'll be god's titties

It’s not what we think- it’s what his numbers say...it is undeniable that Allen is the biggest risk of the group just by his numbers...I find it hard to believe smart men would put their jobs on the line for the QB that is the least sure thing- especially when Buffalo has never developed a QB, ever, and we have s defensive minded HC...now that’s a scary proposition.

[frogger]

I fear he is Jeff George, someone known for their arm talent, not their QB talent, I would actually stay as far away from him as possible.  My ranking of the QB would be:

1-Darnold-I think he'll have to adjust his throwing motion, he drops the ball low, the additional motion allows CBs to jump routes, otherwise he looks like a sure thing.  Expecting him to be the first QB taken (likely by the Browns)

 

2-Mayfield-it's not his attitude, it's his size, without a clean pocket he is just going to have a hard time.  He will be successful in the Buffalo offense, this Erhardt-Perkins offense fits Mayfield perfectly. (third QB taken hopefully by Buffalo)

 

3-Rosen-Might have the prettiest throwing motion in the draft, balance and everything you want, my concern is his toughness.  Again, like the two above him, I think he will be an exceptional QB in the NFL (2nd QB taken, Jets maybe)

 

4-Luke Falk-this could be the next Tom Brady, no wasted motion, good pocket awareness, good touch but doesn't zip the ball, don't get me wrong he can throw it, just doesn't zip it.  My concern is he seems to fail in big game situation, he isn't going to be able to step in and take control day one, he is a person that you sit a year or two, but he is a good investment. (7th taken, ideally he'd end up on the west coast, LA Chargers)

 

5-Jackson-I love watching Jackson, but he is going to need some coaching...he is a faster Vince Young, I don't want to compare him to Vick, he is Young, he'll have a great beginning to his career and then teams will figure it out. (6th taken Denver Round 2)

 

6-Rudolph-I think there is a lot of talent here, but he is a system QB, his ideal landing spot would be with Patriots.  There he could learn to play in the NFL and become Brady's replacement.  (5th taken, by NE end of round one)

 

7-Josh Allen-all the reason we've talked about, tons of arm talent...I'm shocked by how bad his college stats were.  they say that the Peytons and the Bradys of the NFL make their WRs better, if you could say the same about Allen, than he had pedestrians playing WR.  But he looks the part (4th QB taken by Arizona)

 

just one guys opinion.

Edited March 15, 2018 by frogger

[TC in St. Louis]

I think it's fun to speculate, but the truth is that all the efforts we put into this is nothing compared to the work put in by the staff while making their decision.  I was telling my son I hope we get Mayfield.  I think he's got the right leadership style and excellent skill set.  But then I reminded myself of Sam Darnold in a bowl game against Penn State a couple years ago.  I think he had 5 td passes in the second half.  

 

In other words, it's torture.  I have no idea.  There are times I think Rosen is the guy, but I've read that he doesn't need football and doesn't care that much.  

 

I think our team is good at misdirection and keeping their hand close to the vest.  Rumors may run rampant, but we won't know for sure till draft day.  Unless they trade for the first pick and announce early, we won't know.  I think.

[buffaloboyinATL]

7 hours ago, garybusey said:

Allen is the next Jim Kelly.

 

just wanted to be the first to say that after the Bills draft him. No matter how much you all think he sucks now, by training camp he'll be god's titties

LOL re god's titties. Not sure about all that, but I do agree that he is going to be our pick.  I trust Beane and company to do their homework and get the right guy, so no matter who it is, I will support the pick.

[Brand J]

I noticed Allen likes to bail from a clean pocket too often. We just traded a QB who had the same problem. Aside from his noted struggles against power 5 teams...

Quote

Another red flag shows up in Allen's entire body of work at the college level. He's only thrown for more than 300 yards in a single game - and that was a 69-66 loss to UNLV that required three overtimes.

This is a highlight/lowlight video, his lowlights start at 7:07.

Josh Allen Film Study

Edited March 15, 2018 by JayBaller10

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Josh Allen is going to get a coaching staff fired 

[BrooklynBills]

8 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Played nobody. 

 

When he did play a power 5 school he sucked. 

 

When and who has a sub 60% QB in college succeeded in NFL?

Stafford

 

I think if you put these other QBs in the Wyoming offense and asked them to do what they asked Allen to do then you would see similar completion % numbers.

 

Rosen would get me the most excited. I actually think Allen is my number 2.  Then maybe Darnold although I would be worried about the extremely simplified offense that he ran.  Mayfield scares me because his numbers are inflated by the scheme and his arm strength on the short throws is worse than the other 3. Everyone says Mayfield throws with anticipation, but when you watch some film of Mayfield you will see him double clutch and wait for guys to come open on the in breaking short stuff which won't work at the next level.  Mayfield is not the dual threat nor does he have the arm talent of Russell Wilson so i don't see the appeal there.

[DCOrange]

9 hours ago, Yeezus said:

Adjusted completion percentage for dropped passes, throwaways & passes where QB was hit

• Rosen - 68.9%

• Mayfield - 68.4%

• L. Jackson - 64.7%

• Darnold - 59.8%

• J. Allen - 52.6%

Source: https://twitter.com/alex_valdezmhh/status/971839131981623298?s=21

Season-long, top draft QBs, % of aimed passes deemed catchable (min 200 atts)

Baker Mayfield 84.1% (best in NCAA)

Josh Rosen 77.9%

Lamar Jackson 77.6%

Sam Darnold 74.1%

Josh Allen 70.8% (92nd out of 100)

NCAA AVG: 76.0%

Source: https://twitter.com/TJCarter26/status/948911273877606400?s=09

PFF Drop Rates -

Sam Darnold (6.81%);

Josh Allen (7.84%);

Baker Mayfield (9.49%);

Josh Rosen (11.01%);

Lamar Jackson (12.04%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PFF_Neil/status/955928657129889792

 

Basically, everyone was blaming his bad WR's, but in fact he had one of the lowest drop rates out of all top prospects. 

 

Also everyone likes to mention how his best trait is his ability to escape pressure and make plays, well he is the worst top prospect in terms of that and the stats are literally right in your face to show you. everyone says Josh Rosen has a noodle arm and can't throw under pressure, yet he is by far the best QB in the draft at it. Why? Because he has good mechanics, footwork, and is deadly accurate...all things Allen isn't. 

 

I don't think very many people question Rosen's arm strength. Regarding throwing under pressure, his completion % was good, but his passer rating under pressure was poor.

[Tatonka68]

Footwork can be taught, arm strength cannot. Allen > Rosen.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

1 minute ago, Tatonka68 said:

Footwork can be taught, arm strength cannot. Allen > Rosen.

[KDIGGZ]

12 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Footwork can be taught, arm strength cannot. Allen > Rosen.

Please give us an example

[Batman1876]

How often are QBs asked to throw through a brick wall or over a mountain? How often are QBs asked to throw accurately at the WR? 

This is the difference between mayfield and Allen.. https://mobile.twitter.com/NickiJhabvala/status/956228021945618437/video/1

[NewEraBills]

9 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Not all great college players turn out to be great NFL players and conversely not all poorly graded college players play poorly in the NFL.

 

In 2000 Chad Pennington was the first QB taken in that year's draft in the first round by the NY Jets.  Giovanni Carmazzi was selected in the third by the 49ers. Chris Redman drafted in the third by the Ravens. Tee Martin was selected in the 5th by the Steelers. Marc Bulger was selected in the 6th round by the Saints. Spergon Wynn was selected in the 6th round by the Browns.

 

Then some scrawny kid 6'4'' 211 lbs was taken in the 6th round by the Patriots. He was graded 9th out of 24 QB's that year and projected to be a 6-7th round pick. His name is...

 

1. Unsung Hero: ... ..... had good statistics while in college, but he didn't have many accolades. He wasn't an All American. He didn't win the Heisman Trophy or Davey O'Brien Award. He wasn't all conference first or second team. ... ..... was All Big Ten Conference Honorable Mention. That's it. During his senior season, Drew Brees was widely recognized as the top QB in the Big Ten Conference. Antwaan Randle El also gained attention for being the most athletic QB in the conference. ..... was simply overlooked. Consequently, there just wasn't much hype surrounding him.
2. Measurables: Scouts were hard on ....., as they are on most quarterbacks. They criticized his slow foot speed. They criticized his frame, saying he was too small. They criticized his arm strength. They said he couldn't throw a tight spiral. They said he couldn't improvise if a play broke down. Some even said that his good statistics were a product of him playing on a great team rather than him being a great player. Looking back, these criticisms are laughable. But at the time, those were legitimate concerns that made ........ value plummet.

https://www.quora.com/Why-was-Tom-Brady-drafted-so-low

 

Josh Allen started 2017 with a cast of rookies who knew very little and he basically carried that team to an 8-5 record on his shoulders with a bad offensive line, bad receivers and literally no run game. Stats are for losers. Go watch what the kid did in the senior bowl with decent talent around him. There is a real reason as to why the kid is ranked in the top four by almost everyone. 

 

 

3

 

This doesn't ease anything for me.  His first half was atrocious.  He turned some things around in the 2nd half but the first half was everything the grades said he was.  Add on to that the up and down week he had and this is not a person I want in a Bills uniform.  He's nowhere near ready.  Then at the combine he did not shine on the chalkboard which matters ALOT.  

Edited March 15, 2018 by NewEraBills

[Tatonka68]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said: