Jump to content

I say we will not draft a QB round 1


mead107

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, mead107 said:

It’s the off season.  

You do have to think though- what if McCarron is the next tom Brady? Or do they believe that Peterman could be that guy. Just because we take one of the top 3 Qb pick doesn’t mean that they will be the next tom Brady. What if it is the 4 or 5 Qb taken? 

 

 

He may be the next Brady , but we won't know thet before the draft , therefore we will be trading up regardless of what they think of McCarron and Peterman.

 

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/14/2018 at 9:23 PM, mead107 said:

I think it is possible.  

 

What is your take? 

Wow what an incredibly enlightening take you have on the subject. 9 entire words used to say absolutely nothing!

 

vased in the current state of the off season, I’d say the chances of the Bills not picking a QB in round 1 of the draft are WAY below 1%! They didn’t make all these moves and say everything to become Cleveland and pass on the QB when they have the chance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You don’t trade up to number 12 six weeks before the draft unless you’ve got something else in mind.  If Beane did it to draft an ILB, then he’s an idiot, and he does not strike me as one.  Here’s how I see the odds:

 

trade up and take qb—75 percent

take Qb at 12 —.            15 percent

take QB at 22 —              5 percent

no qb in rd 1–                   4 percent

other —                               1 percent

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

I think the Giants will take Barkley.  I'd be stunned if they take a QB in rd 1.  Although it's not out of consideration.  Actually, I take that back.  Telling the media that you are rolling with Eli could be a smokescreen.  Sure you are rolling with Eli, but that doesn't mean you don't have an eye on a replacement.  The Giants could actually take a QB.  Ughhh, the Giants are the key to this entire puzzle IMO.  If they take a QB over Barkley I think we are screwed out of the #3 pick.  It'll take a cold day in hell to get the Colts to pass on Barkley.  So then it becomes a log-jam for #4 where I can see Denver trying to jump 1 spot, the Jets trying to jump two spots and the Bills trying to jump 8 spots.  I hope this does not happen because if the Broncos or Jets offer Cleveland a 2nd round pick to move back two spots I think the Browns will make the deal with them if they covet Fitzpatrick.  By only moving back one or two spots they still get him and they pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd.  Denver has two 2nds and 3 3rds to play with.  Damn man, this is not going to be smooth sailing.

You are forgetting that the Giants think they already have a developmental qb in Davis Webb.  They will take Barkley or trade out of the slot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, mead107 said:

Can’t wait for draft night.  It will be interesting no matter what they do.    

 

 

Still waiting on southboy fan in ny to answer what I asked him earlier.  

 

Hey, sorry bud, truly didn't see your question until now.

Way south, about 70 miles north of NYC.

No season tickets, used to go to games when I was younger, now with a kid, mortgage, and less "disposable income" I'm stuck going to a Bills-Jets game from time to time :(

 

And apologies if you were not trolling with the opening post, it felt like a troll thread.

My thoughts are we trade up and get a QB, they've done too much work to not.

Edited by SouthNYfan
Added last part
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gimme dat MLB and let's plug some holes. It'd be amazing provided we draft well to get into a Seahawks situation where we have a ton of young talent under rookie contracts.

 

And quarterbacks respond well to winning more than anything IMO not personal stats. Big Ben was like 2000 yards passing was riding a great team, Russ, TB12 really was in a big Ben situation too.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Bill Murray said:

My take is people on this board are not giving enough credit to the possibility of the broncos or Jets moving up and taking the QBs.  We all assume that one of the Giants, Colts, and/or Browns will be willing to trade out with us.  I think its reasonable, if not likely, that any of those teams trade out with the Jets and Broncos (wil get probably another pick this year and a high pick next year to just move down a couple spots rather than all the way back to #12).  In that scenario, Darnold, Rosen, Allen will all be gone.  Then we are trying to get up the board with limited trade down partners and potentially the Cards or a dark horse moving up to contend with.  

 

So all in all, i could easily see our top QB choice being taken, and McBeane deciding to go to plan B, which is draft BPA at #12 and try for Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson at #22. 

Notice that the Jets and Broncos have higher draft picks to trade and can also use next years #1 picks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Notice that the Jets and Broncos have higher draft picks to trade and can also use next years #1 picks.

 

They can indeed.  That's the flaw in the whole "trade up for the QB we want" plan - whether teams will trade with us.

 

On the other hand, both the Jets and Broncos have plenty of other holes, and they also both just invested more than we have in the QB position.

That could be a "tell" that they're planning to take someone they think will need more development time.

 

On 3/14/2018 at 10:07 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

Although, I will say that after the McCarron signing, they're going to put it out there that they won't be moving up (at some point before the draft). 

Smokescreens and leverage and all.

 

As a screen, I don't think McCarron is very smoky.  Don't get me wrong, I think he's a good signing, I'm glad we signed him. 

But he's not a "proven starter" along the lines of Keenum, McCown, Bridgewater, Bradford, Taylor.

 

 

On 3/14/2018 at 10:03 PM, akm0404 said:

I know this OP is a troll, but to address a more reasonable-sounding point that some are making:

"With the Jets, & Broncos getting their QB's i think one might make it to us at 12 !"

Please don't forget that other teams can be just as motivated to trade up and nab a potentially elite quarterback - even those without a glaring immediate need at the position.

With a position that important, you simply cannot afford to sit back and wait to see what falls to you.  Identify your guy, and if you evaluate them to possess elite potential, you do what it takes to pull the trigger.

 

I don't think teams without an immediate glaring need typically spend draft capital to move up.  Coaches want to win or they're gone, so the motivation is strong if you have a QB you think is "good enough", to put pieces around him.

 

That said, I loathe the "one of those 4 might make it to us at 12!" notion.  The top 4-5 QB are very different guys with different strengths, weaknesses, and development trajectories.  We really shouldn't be happy with "one of those 4".  We should evaluate 1, maybe 2, as "the man", and do everything we can do to go after him. 

 

Settling for the 4th QB off the board was not a big win for us before.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Super Bowl Quarterbacks

Super Bowl Draft
Year Winner/Loser Year Rnd Pick Plyr Team College
1967 Bart Starr, GB 1956 17 7 200 Packers Alabama
  Len Dawson, KC 1957 1 5 5 Steelers Purdue
1968 Bart Starr, GB 1956 17 7 200 Packers Alabama
  Daryle Lamonica, OAK 1963 24 14 188 Bills Notre Dame
1969 Joe Namath, NYJ 1965 1 1 1 Jets Alabama
  Johnny Unitas, BAL 1955 9 5 102 Steelers Louisville
1970 Len Dawson, KC 1957 1 5 5 Steelers Purdue
  Joe Kapp, MIN 1959 18 5 209 Redskins California
1971 Earl Morrall, BAL 1956 1 2 2 49ers Michigan State
  Craig Morton, DAL 1965 1 5 5 Cowboys California
1972 Roger Staubach, DAL 1964 10 3 129 Cowboys Navy
  Bob Griese, MIA 1967 1 4 4 Dolphins Purdue
1973 Bob Griese, MIA 1967 1 4 4 Dolphins Purdue
  Bill Kilmer, WAS 1961 1 11 11 49ers UCLA
1974 Bob Griese, MIA 1967 1 4 4 Dolphins Purdue
  Fran Tarkenton, MIN 1961 3 1 29 Vikings Georgia
1975 Terry Bradshaw, PIT 1970 1 1 1 Steelers Louisiana Tech
  Fran Tarkenton, MIN 1961 3 1 29 Vikings Georgia
1976 Terry Bradshaw, PIT 1970 1 1 1 Steelers Louisiana Tech
  Roger Staubach, DAL 1964 10 3 129 Cowboys Navy
1977 Kenny Stabler, OAK 1968 2 25 52 Raiders Alabama
  Fran Tarkenton, MIN 1961 3 1 29 Vikings Georgia
1978 Roger Staubach, DAL 1964 10 3 129 Cowboys Navy
  Craig Morton, DEN 1965 1 5 5 Cowboys California
1979 Terry Bradshaw, PIT 1970 1 1 1 Steelers Louisiana Tech
  Roger Staubach, DAL 1964 10 3 129 Cowboys Navy
1980 Terry Bradshaw, PIT 1970 1 1 1 Steelers Louisiana Tech
  Vince Ferragamo, LAR 1977 4 7 91 Rams Nebraska
1981 Jim Plunkett, OAK 1971 1 1 1 Patriots Stanford
  Ron Jaworski, PHI 1973 2 11 37 Rams Youngstown State
1982 Joe Montana, SF 1979 3 26 82 49ers Notre Dame
  Ken Anderson, CIN 1971 3 15 67 Bengals Augustana IL
1983 Joe Theismann, WAS 1971 4 21 99 Dolphins Notre Dame
  David Woodley, MIA 1980 8 21 214 Dolphins Louisiana State
1984 Jim Plunkett, LAR 1971 1 1 1 Patriots Stanford
  Joe Theismann, WAS 1971 4 21 99 Dolphins Notre Dame
1985 Joe Montano, SF 1979 3 26 82 49ers Notre Dame
  Dan Marino, MIA 1983 1 27 27 Dolphins Pittsburgh
1986 Jim McMahon, CHI 1982 1 5 5 Bears Brigham Young
  Tony Eason, NE 1983 1 15 15 Patriots Illinois
  Steve Grogan, NE 1975 5 12 116 Patriots Kansas State
1987 Phil Simms, NYG 1979 1 7 7 Giants Morehead State
  John Elway, DEN 1983 1 1 1 Colts Stanford
1988 Doug Williams, WAS 1978 1 17 17 Buccaneers Grambling
  John Elway, DEN 1983 1 1 1 Colts Stanford
1989 Joe Montana, SF 1979 3 26 82 49ers Notre Dame
  Boomer Esiason, CIN 1984 2 10 38 Bengals Maryland
1990 Joe Montana, SF 1979 3 26 82 49ers Notre Dame
  John Elway, DEN 1983 1 1 1 Colts Stanford
1991 Jeff Hostetler, NYG 1984 3 3 59 Giants West Virginia
  Jim Kelly, BUF 1983 1 14 14 Bills Miami FL
1992 Mark Rypien, WAS 1986 6 8 146 Redskins Washington State
  Jim Kelly, BUF 1983 1 14 14 Bills Miami FL
1993 Troy Aikman, DAL 1989 1 1 1 Cowboys UCLA
  Jim Kelly, BUF 1983 1 14 14 Bills Miami FL
  Frank Reich, BUF 1985 3 1 57 Bills Maryland
1994 Troy Aikman, DAL 1989 1 1 1 Cowboys UCLA
  Jim Kelly, BUF 1983 1 14 14 Bills Miami FL
1995 Steve Young, SF 1984s 1 1 1 Buccaneers Brigham Young
  Stan Humphreys, SD 1988 6 22 159 Redskins Louisiana - Monroe
1996 Troy Aikman, DAL 1989 1 1 1 Cowboys UCLA
  Neil O'Donnell, PIT 1990 3 17 70 Steelers Maryland
1997 Brett Favre, GB 1991 2 6 33 Falcons Southern Mississippi
  Drew Bledsoe, NE 1993 1 1 1 Patriots Washington State
1998 John Elway, DEN 1983 1 1 1 Colts Stanford
  Brett Favre, GB 1991 2 6 33 Falcons Southern Mississippi
1999 John Elway, DEN 1983 1 1 1 Colts Stanford
  Chris Chandler, ATL 1988 3 21 76 Colts Washington
2000 Kurt Warner, STL undrafted Northern Iowa
  Steve McNair, TEN 1995 1 3 3 Oilers Alcorn State
2001 Trent Dilfer, BAL 1994 1 6 6 Buccaneers Fresno State
  Kerry Collins, NYG 1995 1 5 5 Panthers Penn State
2002 Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
  Kurt Warner, STL undrafted Northern Iowa
2003 Brad Johnson, TB 1992 9 3 227 Vikings Florida State
  Rich Gannon, OAK 1987 4 14 98 Patriots Delaware
2004 Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
  Jake Delhomme, CAR undrafted Louisiana - Lafayette
2005 Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
  Donovan McNabb, PHI 1999 1 2 2 Patriots Syracuse
2006 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 2004 1 11 11 Steelers Miami OH
  Matt Hasselbeck, SEA 1998 6 34 187 Packers Boston College
2007 Peyton Manning, IND 1998 1 1 1 Colts Tennessee
  Rex Grossman, CHI 2003 1 22 22 Bears Florida
2008 Eli Manning, NYG 2004 1 1 1 Chargers Mississippi
  Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
2009 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 2004 1 11 11 Steelers Miami OH
  Kurt Warner, ARI undrafted Northern Iowa
2010 Drew Brees, NO 2001 2 1 32 Chargers Purdue
  Peyton Manning, IND 1998 1 1 1 Colts Tennessee
2011 Aaron Rodgers, GB 2005 1 24 24 Packers California
  Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 2004 1 11 11 Steelers Miami OH
2012 Eli Manning, NYG 2004 1 1 1 Chargers Mississippi
  Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
2013 Joe Flacco, BAL 2008 1 18 18 Ravens Delaware
  Colin Kaepernick, SF 2011 2 4 36 49ers Nevada
2014 Russell Wilson, SEA 2012 3 12 75 Seahawks Wisconsin
  Peyton Manning, DEN 1998 1 1 1 Colts Tennessee
2015 Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
  Russell Wilson, SEA 2012 3 12 75 Seahawks Wisconsin
2016 Peyton Manning, DEN 1998 1 1 1 Colts Tennessee
  Cam Newton, CAR 2011 1 1 1 Panthers Auburn
2017 Tom Brady, NE 2000 6 33 199 Patriots Michigan
  Matt Ryan, ATL 2008 1 1 1 Falcons Boston College
Edited by ddaryl
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, nuklz2594 said:

what if mccarron lights it up?  extend him?

 

He's on a two year deal.   There's no need for any thought of an extension at this juncture and it's obvious that the Bills are looking to the draft for the long term QB solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Bill Murray said:

My take is people on this board are not giving enough credit to the possibility of the broncos or Jets moving up and taking the QBs.  We all assume that one of the Giants, Colts, and/or Browns will be willing to trade out with us.  I think its reasonable, if not likely, that any of those teams trade out with the Jets and Broncos (wil get probably another pick this year and a high pick next year to just move down a couple spots rather than all the way back to #12).  In that scenario, Darnold, Rosen, Allen will all be gone.  Then we are trying to get up the board with limited trade down partners and potentially the Cards or a dark horse moving up to contend with.  

 

So all in all, i could easily see our top QB choice being taken, and McBeane deciding to go to plan B, which is draft BPA at #12 and try for Mason Rudolph or Lamar Jackson at #22. 

Lamar won't last past the Cardinals pick. I think the Bills know this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Did someone say they are not trading up for a qb to day?  Not been paying attention. 

 

Nope.  Beane said it wasn't "certain" that they would trade up again and that people shouldn't "assume" they will pick a Quarterback. 

 

But that is just what he has to say at this stage.  They are very likely to move up again into the top 5 of the draft and they are picking a Quarterback with their 1st selection. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Gimme dat MLB and let's plug some holes. It'd be amazing provided we draft well to get into a Seahawks situation where we have a ton of young talent under rookie contracts.

 

Gimme dat?

 

Still, there isn't a MLB getting a team into the playoffs. I'd rather they pursue the QB rather than fill needs at LB, guard, and WR. 

 

Drafting for straight need is a recipe for failure.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope.  Beane said it wasn't "certain" that they would trade up again and that people shouldn't "assume" they will pick a Quarterback. 

 

But that is just what he has to say at this stage.  They are very likely to move up again into the top 5 of the draft and they are picking a Quarterback with their 1st selection. 

 

One of my favorite all time was when ESPN interviewed Buddy Nix after the first night of the draft.  They specifically asked him who was the best player left on day 2.  Without hesitation, he stated "Jonathan Martin".  Then when the Bills were up, they passed on Martin and took Cordy Glenn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...