Josh Allen one of the most overrated QB prospects this decade

[Batman1876]

2 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

 

whats wrong with you, Stafford has a career 57.1 completion percentage in college. so stop embarrassing your self. This is a recent example of a QB and he was drafted number 1 over all. Josh Allen for his college career 56.1, Jim Kelly 55.6 these are there completion percentage for there college career. God I hate when people try and justify something that is not true. John Elway was only 62 percent for his college career can you please just keep with the facts. 

 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html 

Fact Stafford had a completion percentage of 61 % in his senior year. You are the one saying QB play from 35 years ago is relevant to a conversation today. For 35 years every QB who never reached 60% in any single season has busted. That is indisputable.  

[USABuffaloFan]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

If Allen was the target I dont see how you trade Tyrod and not have an upgrade at Qb for 2018.  I would not expect too much too soon from Allen.  Rosen, or Mayfiled sure, Darnold maybe, Allen or Jackson no.

I believe in this signing period your not allowed to actually try out a player. You agree to sign with risk. There was no reason for Buffalo to do this with a veteran without actually bringing them in and talking and working them out. Can't afford a mistake. DT the Bills knew. Everything opens up in 1.5 hrs. There very well might be action once the 12th pick becomes permanent. No matter what Buffalo will have a veteran QB playing in 2018 at least till proven different in camp.

[jrober38]

41 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

The more I look at him the more he looks like Drew Bledsoe. If the Bills love him I won't hate him tho I think he'll bust as well.

 

All I see is Kyle Boller. 

[billrooter]

14 hours ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

You are so wrong. He will end up as the best QB from this draft. 

With discussions like this I just think back, but I don't know the league like I used to and my memory isn't nearly as sharp as it once was. Accuracy to me is one of the hardest thing to fix, I think back to just qbs with consistent accuracy problems Buffalo has tried to fix and they never got results. I just wonder can anyone think of a guy that came into the league with accuracy problems that actually fixed either there feet or whatever it took to be an accurate and dependable thrower? I am not saying he won't turnout to be the best hell everyone has an opinion but I don't see it happening.

[17 Josh Allen]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

All I see is Kyle Boller. 

I see a better big ben or the 2nd coming of Elway 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I see a better big ben or the 2nd coming of Elway 

 

Both of those guys have excellent accuracy. 

 

He's the same size as Big Ben, and has the same arm as Elway, but he's nowhere close to being as good as either guy because when he throws the ball it doesn't consistently go where it's supposed to go. 

 

If you can find any, go read scouting reports for Kyle Boller. They're the same guy. 

 

Big, mobile, with an enormous arm who can make splash throws but lack the necessary accuracy to consistently complete screen passes. They're the exact same guy who looked "great" at the Senior Bowl, Combine and their Pro Day, and then crashed and burned epically once they got to the NFL and their sub par accuracy led to total ineffectiveness. 

 

In two years Allen will be a certified bust with a completion percentage in the mid 50s and more interceptions than TDs. You don't go from being a mediocre QB in the Mountain West to being a franchise QB in the NFL. 

Edited March 14, 2018 by jrober38

[Yeezus]

6 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I see a better big ben or the 2nd coming of Elway 

 

 

you are also delusional so..it makes sense. 

[USABuffaloFan]

14 hours ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

 

Your joking right Mr.check down please that’s like comparing Jim Kelly to Doug flute. Mr Allen has most air yards completions of any QB in this draft. it’s not even close. 

Trent Edwards never had the physical skills of Allen, not even close or size. 

[17 Josh Allen]

1 minute ago, Yeezus said:

 

 

you are also delusional so..it makes sense. 

Get a grip this kid is going in the top 4 picks in the draft and might be the number 1 QB off the board. I will side with the draft experts and not some guy sitting around typing on his keyboard. So I would say your the one who is delusional. 

[Mickey]

41 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

This happens every year. 

 

EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Jamarcus Russell, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, etc. 

The NFL loves big, athletic, mobile QBs with rocket arms even if they can't play football very well. 

 

Like those other guys, Josh Allen is destined to be a bust. You can't teach accuracy. 

Brett Favre College Accuracy: 52.4%, in the Pro's: 62%

Jim Kelly's College Accuracy: 55.6%, in the Pro's: 60.1%

Dan Marino, College: 57.6%, Pro's: 59.4%

Joe Montana, College: 52%, Pro's: 63.2%

Tom Brady, College 61.9%, Pro's: 63.9%

 

It is possible for a QB to improve his accuracy after college. Whether it be because of coaching, a better system or some other variable, it is possible that Allen's accuracy will improve in the NFL just as other QB's have done. As I have said, I'm not a big fan of the Bills taking Allen because, why get a guy who might improve his accuracy when there are guys who already throw the ball accurately? At the same time though, I trust Mac and the Bean to make the right decision. I may make the best damn pasta fazool in Central NY but I am about as good at evaluating QB's as I am at winning arguments with my two teenage daughters. 

Edited March 14, 2018 by Mickey

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Brett Favre College Accuracy: 52.4%, in the Pro's: 62%

Jim Kelly's College Accuracy: 55.6%, in the Pro's: 60.1%

Dan Marino, College: 57.6%, Pro's: 59.4%

Joe Montana, College: 52%, Pro's: 63.2%

Tom Brady, College 61.9%, Pro's: 63.9%

 

It is possible for a QB to improve his accuracy after college. Whether it be because of coaching, a better system or some other variable, it is possible that Allen's accuracy will improve in the NFL just as other QB's with have done. As I have said, I'm not a big fan of the Bills taking Allen because, why get a guy who might improve his accuracy when there are guys who already throw the ball accurately? At the same time though, I trust Mac and the Bean to make the right decision. I may make the best damn pasta fazool in Central NY but I am about as good at evaluating QB's as I am at winning arguments with my two teenage daughters. 

 

Show me a guy whose best college season had a completion % below 59% from the past 15 years who has become a quality NFL QB.

 

I'll wait....

Edited March 14, 2018 by jrober38

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

1 hour ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

I don't think this should be the favorite for WORST post of the year but is a slam dunk winner in the category of "MOST DUMB AND IGNORANT POST OF THE YEAR:. This is blatantly ridiculous. I coached for seventeen until a car wreck made me this whiny old  cripple !, and my son for ten in JC and FCS and we would love to coach any "Mom's basement" characters out there. Not trying to boast whatsoever you just don't know what you don't know !

Yes I'm sure you would out coach pretty much every madden player who has never coached football before.  Maybe you didn't see the part where I said if they had time to devote their lives to it as a career.  What I am saying is many of these NFL people get their jobs due to who they know.  I do 100% think that they are many fans out there, that if were brought up playing football and devoted their lives to it as a career, would absolutely be better coaches then the current lot we have in the NFL.  I'm not saying they would be there in a year, but there are a lot of people in NFL who don't know what they are doing.

 

And absolutely yes, 100%, there are people who may have never played football in their life, that are better game managers than many NFL coaches.  I am not saying they are better play callers or coaches, but yes they are better game managers.  I have seen enough coaches misusing time outs, managing the clock poorly, and punting on 4th and short on the opponents side of the field to know that a lot of them have absolutely no idea how to manage a game.  There are some people who have run the simulation of managing a game on Madden thousands of time and have some natural wits who without a doubt in my mind would manage the in game situations better than most NFL head coaches.  

 

The Eagles hired a guy named Jon Ferrari as their Head of Football Compliance a couple of years ago and he helped them win a Super Bowl because....  well take a look at the quote from this article.

 

Quote

Jon Ferrari, the team’s director of football compliance, sits beside Paganetti during games. He possesses a strong grasp for the NFL rulebook and offers Pederson suggestions on controversial plays that can be challenged.

“He’s just incredibly respectful to all the members on his staff,” Paganetti said. “He’s always willing to listen to anything that could possibly help. There’s a significant portion of NFL coaches that are very resistant to listening to statistical tendencies or analytic things. They’re like, ‘Yeah, that’s stupid. I know how football works. I know when to punt or go for it. I don’t need this. I watch tape.’

“He just has a no-stone-unturned mentality where it’s like, ‘If anything can help, I’m going to listen to it. I might not agree with it. I might not use it. But I want to listen.”

 

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/football/super-bowl/math-inclined-assistant-has-eagles-coach-doug-pedersons-ear/

 

Like it or not, there are a lot of people who have never played football or coached football who would be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better game managers than most NFL coaches.  The arrogance of the establishment, which you helped display in your reply to my post is a big reason why.  Game management is not only about knowing football, it's very much about knowing math, and whether NFL coaches don't know the numbers, or do and are just too arrogant to apply them really doesn't matter.  Most if not nearly all are managing the game the wrong way and the Eagles were able to win a Championship because of it.

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

Talk about hyperbole.   

You think there are not thousands of people out there who couldn't manage a game better than most NFL head coaches who routinely punt on 4th and short in many situations, despite the math clearly showing it decreases the punting teams chances of winning the game?  Rex Ryan punting on 4th and short, late in overtime two seasons ago when a tie knocks you out of the playoffs.  Hue Jackson calling timeouts at the end of the 1st half of the London game this year when he had first and goal and didn't need to, leaving the Vikings time on the clock after the TD to come down the field and kick a FG, which they did.  Countless other situations where despite everyone knowing the math, coaches make the wrong decision.  Just accept that NFL coaches know what there doing and criticize those who try to point out that they don't if you want, but the evidence is not on your side.

Edited March 14, 2018 by K-GunJimKelly12

[Mickey]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Show me a guy whose best college season had a completion % below 58% from the past 15 years who has become a quality NFL QB.

 

I'll wait....

No thanks, not going to evaluate based on arbitrary parameters which appear to be introduced to force a desired result. That and I don't have an entire day to waste. If you think you can evaluate QB's better than Mac and the Bean, I have no interest in debating you. Likewise, if you think it is an impossibility for Allen to improve his accuracy, which was my only point, again, no interest in debating you. 

[CuddyDark]

52 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

All I see is Kyle Boller. 

I don't think he's anything like Kyle Boller. Boller didn't have the long ball ability. He had an arm but I don't think he ever made a living throwing the deep ball with any kind of accuracy. Now I do think Allen will bust but I could see why they like him (if they like him). It's unfortunately the same philosophy Whaley had when he took Manuel.

27 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Show me a guy whose best college season had a completion % below 59% from the past 15 years who has become a quality NFL QB.

 

I'll wait....

Carson Palmer had two bad seasons. Also Matthew Stafford had two bad season.

 

That's what I'm saying with Allen if they take him, he throws the deep ball like Bledsoe and Palmer and Stafford so I understand why they make projections for him. Some college passers with deep balls have bad % because they spend all game throwing tough passes. Allen could be that way and make something of a Carson Palmer or Drew Bledsoe career.

Edited March 14, 2018 by CuddyDark

[Mat68]

54 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Fact Stafford had a completion percentage of 61 % in his senior year. You are the one saying QB play from 35 years ago is relevant to a conversation today. For 35 years every QB who never reached 60% in any single season has busted. That is indisputable.  

Idk.  Culter was sub 60.  I can't call him a bust he had long career with varying success.  The 2 outliers here are Farve an Marino.  Marino is outside of your 35 year window and Farve is just inside it.  Farve would be the ceiling.  Now Farve was a gunslinger but was also a coaches son.  He made decisions and knew when he was making a calculated risk because his arm and ability would get him through it.  Jay Culter is ivy league smart and Farve was just a football savant so where is Allen's understanding of football at?  That would be the biggest concerns.  His accuracy can be improved through mechanics but can he process NFL defenses quick enough become a great Qb?  

[Batman1876]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Idk.  Culter was sub 60.  I can't call him a bust he had long career with varying success.  The 2 outliers here are Farve an Marino.  Marino is outside of your 35 year window and Farve is just inside it.  Farve would be the ceiling.  Now Farve was a gunslinger but was also a coaches son.  He made decisions and knew when he was making a calculated risk because his arm and ability would get him through it.  Jay Culter is ivy league smart and Farve was just a football savant so where is Allen's understanding of football at?  That would be the biggest concerns.  His accuracy can be improved through mechanics but can he process NFL defenses quick enough become a great Qb?  

Cutler had 61% his Junior year. And I’m not sure how useful it is looking at 1980’s college ball and comparing it to today. 

[CuddyDark]

2 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Cutler had 61% his Junior year. And I’m not sure how useful it is looking at 1980’s college ball and comparing it to today. 

Not that I disagree but what about McNair?

[KollegeStudnet]

So, you can't really predict if he's a bust already. Hasn't thrown an NFL pass yet. Can't determine until later on, at least 4 years in. 

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Cutler had 61% his Junior year. And I’m not sure how useful it is looking at 1980’s college ball and comparing it to today. 

Far enough thought he was under.  It is quite the outlier.  But he also has the kind of arm.  He took a perennial bottom feeder school and made them a contender in their conference.  First time in 30 years Wyoming went to back to back bowl games.  He did alot for a bad team.  He has the potential to be the best Qb in the draft.  Like with everything in life the most upside also provide the most risk.  

[jrober38]

20 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

I don't think he's anything like Kyle Boller. Boller didn't have the long ball ability. He had an arm but I don't think he ever made a living throwing the deep ball with any kind of accuracy. Now I do think Allen will bust but I could see why they like him (if they like him). It's unfortunately the same philosophy Whaley had when he took Manuel.

Carson Palmer had two bad seasons. Also Matthew Stafford had two bad season.

 

That's what I'm saying with Allen if they take him, he throws the deep ball like Bledsoe and Palmer and Stafford so I understand why they make projections for him. Some college passers with deep balls have bad % because they spend all game throwing tough passes. Allen could be that way and make something of a Carson Palmer or Drew Bledsoe career.

 

Allen has a bad completion percentage because he's not an accurate passer. 

 

Every single one of his scouting reports questions his accuracy. Guys with that question mark never work out in the NFL. 

20 hours ago, Mickey said:

No thanks, not going to evaluate based on arbitrary parameters which appear to be introduced to force a desired result. That and I don't have an entire day to waste. If you think you can evaluate QB's better than Mac and the Bean, I have no interest in debating you. Likewise, if you think it is an impossibility for Allen to improve his accuracy, which was my only point, again, no interest in debating you. 

 

I'll save you the time.

 

The answer is that there isn't a single QB from the past 15 years who didn't post at least one season with a completion percentage above 59% in at least one season.

 

Zero QBs with Allen's college production have worked in the NFL. 

 

Accuracy can be refined, but it can't be taught, which is what's needed in Allen's case. 

 

Sometimes he misses high, sometimes he misses low, sometimes he's too far out in front, and sometimes he throws behind the target. There is no predictability to where he'll miss, which means you have to rebuild his mechanics and teach him accuracy at the most fundamental level possible. 

 

The same thing needed to be done to EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, and every other QB with major college accuracy problems in college. No surprise, none of these guys went on to make good NFL QBs. Most were complete busts. 

 

Accuracy is the most important trait when projecting QB success. All of the top QBs over the past 30 years have had pin point accuracy and it's something Allen just doesn't possess.