Keep Picks?

[Solomon Grundy]

44 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

My thoughts

 

GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN

GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN

I'm just not feeling the Rosen over Jackson. I equate this to the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan scenario. You don't draft the person the prognosticators consider the "safe" pick, you draft the "best" player. In every game he played, Lamar Jackson was considered the best player on the field, period. Jordan was the "athlete" in college that became the greatest bball player ever. Bowie was the "safe" pick that ended up a bust. Let's not let history repeat itself in Buffalo.

8 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Mayfield resume:  Completion percentage & td's to int's  Very impressive!!    OR is he Johnny Manziel.

•  

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Overall					1026	1497	68.5	14607	9.8	10.6	131	30	175.4
	Texas Tech					218	340	64.1	2315	6.8	6.3	12	9	127.7
	Oklahoma					808	1157	69.8	12292	10.6	11.9	119	21	189.
*2013	Texas Tech	Big 12		QB	8	218	340	64.1	2315	6.8	6.3	12	9	127.7
*2015	Oklahoma	Big 12	JR	QB	13	269	395	68.1	3700	9.4	10.4	36	7	173.3
*2016	Oklahoma	Big 12	JR	QB	13	254	358	70.9	3965	11.1	12.3	40	8	196.4
*2017	Oklahoma	Big 12	SR	QB	14	285	404	70.5	4627	11.5	12.9	43	6	198.9

How is Jackson at 6'2 7/8" too short to play QB, but Mayfield isn't? 

[JOSH HUFF]

Josh Rosen Numbers:  Why is he considered a top QB?  Maybe he was on a terrible team?  Terrible completion percentage!

 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2015	UCLA	Pac-12	FR	QB	13	292	487	60.0	3669	7.5	7.5	23	11	134.3
2016	UCLA	Pac-12	SO	QB	6	137	231	59.3	1915	8.3	8.2	10	5	138.9
*2017	UCLA	Pac-12	JR	QB	11	283	452	62.6	3756	8.3	8.5	26	10	147.0

[MAJBobby]

15 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Josh Rosen Numbers:  Why is he considered a top QB?  Maybe he was on a terrible team?  Terrible completion percentage!

 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2015	UCLA	Pac-12	FR	QB	13	292	487	60.0	3669	7.5	7.5	23	11	134.3
2016	UCLA	Pac-12	SO	QB	6	137	231	59.3	1915	8.3	8.2	10	5	138.9
*2017	UCLA	Pac-12	JR	QB	11	283	452	62.6	3756	8.3	8.5	26	10	147.0

 

Because Stats are not the end all be all.  there is a thing called watching the player

[mjt328]

25 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

What makes everyone think that you need to move up and take a QB? 

Since 2013, the best QB in the draft was not taken first. In most cases, the team didn't move up to get him (although Philly did move up to take Carson Wentz, still to this point the best total numbers for his draft year arguably belong to a 4th round pick). Most often the best QB was taken down the line. Carr, Prescott, Watson, even Geno Smith was the best guy in his draft and he was taken in the 2nd round.

In a year where the consensus seems to be "they all have warts", it seems the reasonable thing to do would be to position yourself properly and let things play out. Just sayin'.
 

 

Why do we need to move up?

Well, first of all, there are several QB-needy teams sitting in front of us (Cleveland, Denver, New York, Miami) or directly behind us (Arizona).  If we sit in our current spot, we could realistically miss out on the Top 4-5 prospects.

 

Second, this draft has some of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 5 years.  Saying they have "flaws" or "warts" is just lazy, and can be said about virtually every QB prospect that has ever existed.  This isn't the 2013 class, where everyone available was should have gone 2nd Round earliest.  Both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would get serious #1 consideration in most drafts.

 

Finally, let's actually go back and look at the drafts since 2013, because I don't believe you are remembering them correctly.

2017 is too early to make a judgement call on.  Mahomes played one game.  Watson was hurt half the season.  Trubisky was a rookie on a terrible team.

 

2016 - Best prospects were considered Goff and Wentz.  They went #1-2, and by their sophomore seasons were easily the best QBs out of that class.  Prescott was really good as a rookie, but slumped in Year 2 without the fantastic O-Line and running game.  Outside of Prescott, nobody else drafted has been better than a backup.  So 13 quarterbacks were drafted after the #2 pick and only one has been good.  Not odds I like betting on.

 

2015 - Best prospects were considered Winston and Mariota.  They went #1-2 and are easily the best QBs drafted that year.  Everyone else has been backup level at best.  If you wanted a QB this year, you needed to get one of these two guys.

 

2014 - Best prospect in a very weak class was considered Bortles, with a bunch of other guys considered late 1st Round/early 2nd Rounds.  Best QB has been Derek Carr, who has been inconsistent.  Teddy Bridgewater was OK (overrated) and then got hurt.  And no, I'm not counting Jimmy G until he actually plays a full season as a starter.  Nobody outside of the 2nd Round has done anything.

 

2013 - Everyone said the QB class was terrible, and sure enough, every QB was terrible. 

 

 

If you notice, there is a trend.

Most years, there are 1-2 really strong QB prospects.  Those guys always go in the Top 3, and usually end up as the best guys out of the draft class by far.  In my opinion, both Darnold and Rosen fit that mold in this year's class.

After the really strong guys, there are usually 3-5 guys with high upside, but certain traits that make them riskier bets.  This year's examples would by Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mason Rudolph.  These guys are more hit-and-miss. 

The problem is, sometimes you have years like 2013-2014 where the "secondary guys" are the only thing available.  That is when you get the Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel overdrafts who are outplayed by guys later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MAJBobby]

23 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I'm just not feeling the Rosen over Jackson. I equate this to the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan scenario. You don't draft the person the prognosticators consider the "safe" pick, you draft the "best" player. In every game he played, Lamar Jackson was considered the best player on the field, period. Jordan was the "athlete" in college that became the greatest bball player ever. Bowie was the "safe" pick that ended up a bust. Let's not let history repeat itself in Buffalo.

How is Jackson at 6'2 7/8" too short to play QB, but Mayfield isn't? 

 

Jackson is my 4th best prospect.

 

There are some BIG Issues with his mechanics, he really should have stayed in school. But I grade him higher than Josh Allen so there is that

[NewEraBills]

23 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Josh Rosen Numbers:  Why is he considered a top QB?  Maybe he was on a terrible team?  Terrible completion percentage!

 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2015	UCLA	Pac-12	FR	QB	13	292	487	60.0	3669	7.5	7.5	23	11	134.3
2016	UCLA	Pac-12	SO	QB	6	137	231	59.3	1915	8.3	8.2	10	5	138.9
*2017	UCLA	Pac-12	JR	QB	11	283	452	62.6	3756	8.3	8.5	26	10	147.0

 

 

To me completion percentage is telling of the entire offense as a whole.  It doesn't necessarily measure accuracy.  Sometimes QB's are not very accurate at all but they get bailed out by WR's/TEs.  Let me give you a good example.  Joe Flacco.  As of today, his completion percentage has climbed every year and is up considerably from four years ago.  But if you look at him play, he's as inaccurate as he's always been.  So completion percentage can be a bit misleading.  This is also why I do not want anything to do with Josh Allen.  When you combine low completion percentage and watching him miss targets because he doesn't have touch, and ball placement is erratic, it's a recipe for disaster.

 

So when I look at completion percentage, I'm looking at the offense as a whole.  When I'm looking at accuracy I'm looking at the QB specifically.  Does he have touch, is his ball placement good?  Is his anticipation good?

Edited March 13, 2018 by NewEraBills

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Jackson is my 4th best prospect.

 

There are some BIG Issues with his mechanics, he really should have stayed in school. But I grade him higher than Josh Allen so there is that

He's gonna WOW his critics at his Pro day. That's why there's rumors the Bills wanna jump in front of Jets.

[MAJBobby]

7 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He's gonna WOW his critics at his Pro day. That's why there's rumors the Bills wanna jump in front of Jets.

4th best QB Prospect.  Throwing against AIR will not change how I see him.  there are major mechanics issues with him and he should have stayed in school

Edited March 13, 2018 by MAJBobby

[Tyrod's friend]

32 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Why do we need to move up?

Well, first of all, there are several QB-needy teams sitting in front of us (Cleveland, Denver, New York, Miami) or directly behind us (Arizona).  If we sit in our current spot, we could realistically miss out on the Top 4-5 prospects.

 

Second, this draft has some of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 5 years.  Saying they have "flaws" or "warts" is just lazy, and can be said about virtually every QB prospect that has ever existed.  This isn't the 2013 class, where everyone available was should have gone 2nd Round earliest.  Both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would get serious #1 consideration in most drafts.

 

Finally, let's actually go back and look at the drafts since 2013, because I don't believe you are remembering them correctly.

2017 is too early to make a judgement call on.  Mahomes played one game.  Watson was hurt half the season.  Trubisky was a rookie on a terrible team.

 

2016 - Best prospects were considered Goff and Wentz.  They went #1-2, and by their sophomore seasons were easily the best QBs out of that class.  Prescott was really good as a rookie, but slumped in Year 2 without the fantastic O-Line and running game.  Outside of Prescott, nobody else drafted has been better than a backup.  So 13 quarterbacks were drafted after the #2 pick and only one has been good.  Not odds I like betting on.

 

2015 - Best prospects were considered Winston and Mariota.  They went #1-2 and are easily the best QBs drafted that year.  Everyone else has been backup level at best.  If you wanted a QB this year, you needed to get one of these two guys.

 

2014 - Best prospect in a very weak class was considered Bortles, with a bunch of other guys considered late 1st Round/early 2nd Rounds.  Best QB has been Derek Carr, who has been inconsistent.  Teddy Bridgewater was OK (overrated) and then got hurt.  And no, I'm not counting Jimmy G until he actually plays a full season as a starter.  Nobody outside of the 2nd Round has done anything.

 

2013 - Everyone said the QB class was terrible, and sure enough, every QB was terrible. 

 

 

If you notice, there is a trend.

Most years, there are 1-2 really strong QB prospects.  Those guys always go in the Top 3, and usually end up as the best guys out of the draft class by far.  In my opinion, both Darnold and Rosen fit that mold in this year's class.

After the really strong guys, there are usually 3-5 guys with high upside, but certain traits that make them riskier bets.  This year's examples would by Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mason Rudolph.  These guys are more hit-and-miss. 

The problem is, sometimes you have years like 2013-2014 where the "secondary guys" are the only thing available.  That is when you get the Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel overdrafts who are outplayed by guys later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Jets now have two QBs. 
Denver just committed $36MM to Case Keenum and are not desperate as they once were.
Arizona is behind us, which leaves Miami. It is entirely possible that only 2 QBs are drafted in front of us. 

2017: You're nuts or in serious denial. DeShaun Watson was playing at an MVP level before being injured. 

2016: Prescott has arguably outplayed Wentz; he's DEFINITELY outplayed Goff; so your truly, truly splitting hairs here. Prescott was picked in the 4th round and the leading case for my argument.

2015: I missed this year, and it is a point in your favor.

2014: I might be wrong, but the two best QBs ranked were picked 1-2, Manziel and Bortles. Carr was taken in the 2nd round, as was Garafolo.

2013: Smith and EJM both considered the best of a bad lot. But again, the second one taken and taken in the 2nd round was best.

Here's what I notice: that the ranking is what you should avoid. Teams gave up tons to get the likes of Trubisky, Mahomes, Bortles, Manziel, Sanchez, Locker, Gabbert. Hell, all the twisting and turning over the two can't miss guys between Rivers and Manning and the best of them all was taken in the second round. I can't recall if anyone twisted themselves to get to the can't miss prospects of Leinart and Young - I do know Bills fans were ALL over themselves because we didn't reach to get Leinart - and Jay Cutler delivered more over his career.  1-2 of Luck and Griffin, and one team RUINED itself over that trade. Of course, leaving behind the 4th round Wilson.

Trading up to get the guy is more often than not a mistake, especially at QB. Al. Most. Al.Ways.
 

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

4th best QB Prospect.  Throwing against AIR will not change how I see him.  there are major mechanics issues with him and he should have stayed in school

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2763953-simms-spotlight-lamar-jackson-is-no1-qb-in-2018-draft

[MAJBobby]

Just now, the skycap said:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2763953-simms-spotlight-lamar-jackson-is-no1-qb-in-2018-draft

 

Cool. He has some very flawed mechancis 

 

check out his base and that goes directly to his inconsistent throws and sailing balls over the middle. 

 

He has some serious mechanical flaws 

[Matt_In_NH]

That would be like getting to the final 100 yards on Everest and saying "Lets hang out here and then turn around"

[BuffaloRush]

16 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

There are more than several good QB's in this draft, take a shot with Bradford.  Maybe draft DT Vita Vea at 12 or top OL, LB.

 

Buffalo's DT's VEA, Lotulelei with Williams, Washington rotating in.  If not Vea look at Harrison Phillips, Payne or Hurst at 22, if they last that long. 

 

Do you feel there is a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers in this Draft?  Hard to say, I look at Rosen, Allen & Darnolds numbers and I am not wowed.  Are you?  Yes, I am wowed at Mayfield's numbers that stack up for 3 years and don't care that he is 6'1", he is an inch taller than Drew Bree's.  

 

My point is with so many upgrades needed DT, DE, LB, OT, WR, CB, young RB (back up) and yes QB, but I don't want to through a rookie QB in there right away no matter who they pick.  

 

There are QB's like Mason Rudolph, Mike White and Luke Falk that I think are going to be solid QB's with some seasoning.  

 

With 5 picks in the top 65, Buffalo could set themselves up for many years down the road.  

 

What are your thoughts?

 

 

Do you honestly think they moved up to notbtake a QB?  It’s not going to happen

[KRT88]

settling on a journeyman and and grabbing whatever QB falls to 12 is not a good plan.  

 

They have been planning this since last year's draft and they are going to trade up to #2 in a few weeks.  

 

I love the idea of going up and getting whom they view as their guy.  I just have my fingers crossed that their guy isn't Josh Allen.  

[mjt328]

15 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

The Jets now have two QBs. 
Denver just committed $36MM to Case Keenum and are not desperate as they once were.
Arizona is behind us, which leaves Miami. It is entirely possible that only 2 QBs are drafted in front of us. 

2017: You're nuts or in serious denial. DeShaun Watson was playing at an MVP level before being injured. 

2016: Prescott has arguably outplayed Wentz; he's DEFINITELY outplayed Goff; so your truly, truly splitting hairs here. Prescott was picked in the 4th round and the leading case for my argument.

2015: I missed this year, and it is a point in your favor.

2014: I might be wrong, but the two best QBs ranked were picked 1-2, Manziel and Bortles. Carr was taken in the 2nd round, as was Garafolo.

2013: Smith and EJM both considered the best of a bad lot. But again, the second one taken and taken in the 2nd round was best.

Here's what I notice: that the ranking is what you should avoid. Teams gave up tons to get the likes of Trubisky, Mahomes, Bortles, Manziel, Sanchez, Locker, Gabbert. Hell, all the twisting and turning over the two can't miss guys between Rivers and Manning and the best of them all was taken in the second round. I can't recall if anyone twisted themselves to get to the can't miss prospects of Leinart and Young - I do know Bills fans were ALL over themselves because we didn't reach to get Leinart - and Jay Cutler delivered more over his career.  1-2 of Luck and Griffin, and one team RUINED itself over that trade. Of course, leaving behind the 4th round Wilson.

Trading up to get the guy is more often than not a mistake, especially at QB. Al. Most. Al.Ways.
 

 

Jets are still picking a QB high. 

Denver is still a possibility.

Miami is a possibility.

Arizona would only need to trade up 2 spots to be ahead of us.

 

2017 - Watson had the best rookie year.  It's a long-way before you can say he was the better pick.  And guess what?  Houston traded up to get him.  If either Trubisky or Mahomes turn out good, their teams also traded up to get them.

2016 - Prescott was better as a rookie.  Goff was better as a sophomore.  Once again, it's going to be awhile before you can say who was the better pick.  Either way, this draft has produced three potential franchise QBs so far.  Two of them required major trade ups.  Everyone else that waited besides Dallas was stuck with garbage.

2014 - This was an awkward class.  Opinions were all over the place on Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater and Carr.  All were considered late-1st or early-2nd round talents.  None were considered top guys.  Like the season we reached for Manuel, this would have been a good year to wait.  But the Jags overdrafted Bortles, and the Raiders got the only real bargain.

2013 - This was probably the worst QB class in 20 years.  Smith, Barkley, Manuel, Nassib, Glennon and a few others were generally considered 2nd Round talents at best.  But it was inevitable someone was going to reach and look like idiots.  Congratulations.  It was us.

 

 

Here is the thing. 

Quarterback is the toughest position to play in the NFL, with the most difficult transition from college to the pros.  There is virtually no such thing as a safe QB prospect.  There are only a handful of human beings who reach the height, hand-size and arm strength requirements to be a pro QB.  Out of those guys, only a small percent have the accuracy and mechanics to be good at actually throwing the ball.  Out of those guys, only a fraction have the mental capacity to quickly read a defense and react within a split-second.  Not to mention that 99% of college offenses don't use the same system concepts that you see in the pros.

No matter how much homework NFL scouts do on these guys, it's never going to be an exact science.  A large number of QB prospects (even the top ones) just aren't going to make it.  And at the end of the day, the General Manager/Head Coach/Scouts that decided to take the risk will be ridiculed and probably stand to lose their jobs, because they could have gone the safe route and picked a Pro-Bowl tackle or All-Pro linebacker.

Now it's easy to see all the massive QB busts and assume this whole thing is a "toss-up" and you might as well wait until the later rounds.  Right?  I mean, Tom Brady was taken in the 6th Round!  Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were taken in the 4th Round!  The problem is, these guys are the rare exception.  Not the rule.  You can almost count the success stories on one-hand of guys who came from the later rounds.  Drew Brees (2nd), Derek Carr (2nd), Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd), Russell Wilson (3rd), Dak Prescott (4th), Kirk Cousins (4th), Tom Brady (6th).  That's a total of 7 guys, out of hundreds of quarterbacks taken after the 1st Round over the last many years.

Look around the league and you will see that most of the successful QBs in the league were the highest rated guys in their draft classes:  Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford, Luck, Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Manning, Newton, Palmer, Smith and Rodgers were all in consideration for #1 overall in their respective drafts.  The vast majority of NFL starters came in the top-half of the 1st Round.  It has been this way for almost the entirety of NFL history. 

Regardless of the high percentage of QB busts, it's clear that NFL scouts know what they are doing.  They know which guys have the highest chance of success, and which guys are a long-shot.  Once in awhile, a short guy beats the odds (Brees, Wilson).  Once in awhile, a player manages to improve drastically once he hits the pros (Brady).  But the majority of the time, the best QBs are going to come off the board at the beginning of the 1st Round.  If the Bills have their top choice out of everyone, that will give them the best odds at landing a good one.

 

 

 

[Victory Formation]

I think the Bills love Rosen. If we do trade up, I think he's the guy. Just speculating though of course.