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44 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Movin' on up!

If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out?

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Just now, Misterbluesky said:

If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out?

 

Because there's uncertainty whether they can throw in the snow and cold. 

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Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Because there's uncertainty whether they can throw in the snow and cold. 

That and more.

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4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

We could land the next Ray Lewis at #12, and that pick would still be a massive failure.

 

 

When scouting a college player (especially a QB), it's not all about the "numbers" and trying to find a guy with "wow" statistics.  It's all about building an overall picture on a prospect, then making an educated guess on how that translates to the next level. 

 

If this year's QB Class doesn't work for you, I don't know what you are waiting for.  The last perfect/flawless prospect to enter the NFL was Andrew Luck in 2012.  Before that, you are probably looking at Peyton Manning in 1998.  Before that, probably John Elway in 1983.  By that trend, it will probably be 2027 before we see another QB prospect of that caliber.  They just don't come along very often.

 

When you compare this year's QB Class against others, it's clear this one is pretty good.  Against last year, I would guess that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would be rated above anyone in the 2013, 2014, 2016 or 2017 drafts.  To me, it's a toss-up between those guys and Jameis Winston.  That's just looking at the past 5 seasons.

 

If you would rather have an extra LB or DT (or whatever) instead of one of the better QB prospects in the last 5 years - then I'm glad you aren't running our front office.

 

 

Peyton wasn't a can't miss prospect. He was hit with the "cant win the big game" "choke artist" label. So once every 25 year a can't miss guy comes along, he's sure to be taken 1st over all and the team siting at 1 won't trade  that pick for anything. In other words don't expect it to happen. 

4 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out?

Because one team fired their coach for benching Eli and the other has Luck. 

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17 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

If these top,young,no miss future Hall Of Fame QB's are going in the top 5..why would any one of those teams trade out?

 

Again.  It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer.  There is no such thing. 

Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries).

 

If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We’ll likely never have the ammo to go get a top qb (if McD is a success).  Go get the QB this year.

 

They would not accumulate 6 picks in the top 100 to merely sit at 12 and select from what's left over. There is a plan and they will execute it.

 

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Again.  It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer.  There is no such thing. 

Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries).

 

If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever.

 

I'm thankful that McBeane aren't as weak-kneed as some posters here who are scared of anything bad happening with a QB.

 

It's still amazing that so many people were so on-board and defended Whaley trading up to take "can't-miss" Watkins but are scared to death of trading up for a QB.

 

Edited by BillsVet

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8 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

I'm thankful that McBeane aren't as weak-kneed as some posters here who are scared of anything bad happening with a QB.

 

It's still amazing that so many people were so on-board and defended Whaley trading up to take "can't-miss" Watkins but are scared to death of trading up for a QB.

 

 

You've pinpointed it exactly.

 

Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. 

 

If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff.

If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play.

But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB.

 

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I am out of the loop.  Where did the 12th pick come from?

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1 hour ago, JOSH HUFF said:

There are more than several good QB's in this draft, take a shot with Bradford.  Maybe draft DT Vita Vea at 12 or top OL, LB.

 

Buffalo's DT's VEA, Lotulelei with Williams, Washington rotating in.  If not Vea look at Harrison Phillips, Payne or Hurst at 22, if they last that long. 

 

Do you feel there is a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers in this Draft?  Hard to say, I look at Rosen, Allen & Darnolds numbers and I am not wowed.  Are you?  Yes, I am wowed at Mayfield's numbers that stack up for 3 years and don't care that he is 6'1", he is an inch taller than Drew Bree's.  

 

My point is with so many upgrades needed DT, DE, LB, OT, WR, CB, young RB (back up) and yes QB, but I don't want to through a rookie QB in there right away no matter who they pick.  

 

There are QB's like Mason Rudolph, Mike White and Luke Falk that I think are going to be solid QB's with some seasoning.  

 

With 5 picks in the top 65, Buffalo could set themselves up for many years down the road.  

 

What are your thoughts?

 

My thoughts

 

GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN

GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN

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My thoughts are this:  The bills have not won a playoff game since Jim Kelley was here.  The bills have appeared in only a few playoff games since then.  What is the common denominator?  The fact that they have had only bridge QB's and have not seriously done what it takes to find Kelly's successor.  We can't just keep signing these Journeyman type guys or crossing our fingers and hoping one drops to us.  Move up and get our guy.  If that doesn't work, keep doing it until we do.  You need to actively create your own success in the NFL.  Don't just sit there and try to let it fall into your lap.  That's how we missed out on guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Rothlesberger. 

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19 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

You've pinpointed it exactly.

 

Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. 

 

If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff.

If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play.

But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB.

 



What makes everyone think that you need to move up and take a QB? 

Since 2013, the best QB in the draft was not taken first. In most cases, the team didn't move up to get him (although Philly did move up to take Carson Wentz, still to this point the best total numbers for his draft year arguably belong to a 4th round pick). Most often the best QB was taken down the line. Carr, Prescott, Watson, even Geno Smith was the best guy in his draft and he was taken in the 2nd round.

In a year where the consensus seems to be "they all have warts", it seems the reasonable thing to do would be to position yourself properly and let things play out. Just sayin'.

 

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8 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:



What makes everyone think that you need to move up and take a QB? 

Since 2013, the best QB in the draft was not taken first. In most cases, the team didn't move up to get him (although Philly did move up to take Carson Wentz, still to this point the best total numbers for his draft year arguably belong to a 4th round pick). Most often the best QB was taken down the line. Carr, Prescott, Watson, even Geno Smith was the best guy in his draft and he was taken in the 2nd round.

In a year where the consensus seems to be "they all have warts", it seems the reasonable thing to do would be to position yourself properly and let things play out. Just sayin'.

 

 

Notice that many of the failed QBs go to bad teams.  It's almost like a pattern.....

 

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.  If you need a QB you need to get one in this league.

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4 minutes ago, HiddenInLight said:

 

Notice that many of the failed QBs go to bad teams.  It's almost like a pattern.....

 

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.  If you need a QB you need to get one in this league.


Well, there is no arguing that if you need a QB you should go get one so I'm not sure where you are going with that statement.

But moves made out of desperation are rarely strong plays. This is a good, not great, class of QBs. Moving up to #5 or #3 or #1 doesn't get you a clear cut, no-****-nobody's-arguing better choice. 

And there are huge, huge opportunity costs to move up. End of the day, this management has been moving like a surgeon so I'm not concerned one way or the other. So EoD, I guess. 

Cheers.

2 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

There are more than several good QB's in this draft, take a shot with Bradford.  Maybe draft DT Vita Vea at 12 or top OL, LB.

 

Buffalo's DT's VEA, Lotulelei with Williams, Washington rotating in.  If not Vea look at Harrison Phillips, Payne or Hurst at 22, if they last that long. 

 

Do you feel there is a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers in this Draft?  Hard to say, I look at Rosen, Allen & Darnolds numbers and I am not wowed.  Are you?  Yes, I am wowed at Mayfield's numbers that stack up for 3 years and don't care that he is 6'1", he is an inch taller than Drew Bree's.  

 

My point is with so many upgrades needed DT, DE, LB, OT, WR, CB, young RB (back up) and yes QB, but I don't want to through a rookie QB in there right away no matter who they pick.  

 

There are QB's like Mason Rudolph, Mike White and Luke Falk that I think are going to be solid QB's with some seasoning.  

 

With 5 picks in the top 65, Buffalo could set themselves up for many years down the road.  

 

What are your thoughts?

 



Mostly I'd agree. But I think this too: most of the bad moves happen when you have management acting like their hair is on fire and they are making decisions on draft day. 

It's awfully, awfully clear that we have a team in place that knows exactly what they are doing. It might not work out whatever they do and I'm fine with that. Personally I have a hard on for Mason Rudolph and if we don't take him at 12 he's gone to Baltimore or Miami or San Diego or New Orleans. I digress.

We're at 12 so they can move up if that's what's necessary at the time. #BeanesGotBalls

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1 minute ago, Tyrod's friend said:


Well, there is no arguing that if you need a QB you should go get one so I'm not sure where you are going with that statement.

But moves made out of desperation are rarely strong plays. This is a good, not great, class of QBs. Moving up to #5 or #3 or #1 doesn't get you a clear cut, no-****-nobody's-arguing better choice. 

And there are huge, huge opportunity costs to move up. End of the day, this management has been moving like a surgeon so I'm not concerned one way or the other. So EoD, I guess. 

Cheers.

 

I don't think anybody is denying that there is an opportunity cost to moving up, but remember there is an opportunity cost to staying where you are as well.  Ben Rothlesberger to Pittsburgh while we get JP Lossman.  That was opportunity cost.  On the other side of the coin, Aaron Rodgers to Green Bay was the cost of the trade for JP Lossman.  That being said, there has been a HUGE opportunity cost to not getting our guy since Kelly left.  People will only care about oppotunity cost if we don't get our guy, or if our guy busts.  I bet there aren't many people talking about opportunity cost on the Eagles forums.  I'm sure they are quite happy with Wentz.  Same with the Falcons.  They are probably happy with the opportunity cost for them to move up and get their WR.  In a year like this, we almost have no choice but to move up.  Especially with Tyrod gone and the top tier of QB's no longer available to us.  Especially with our Cap situation.

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Mayfield resume:  Completion percentage & td's to int's  Very impressive!!    OR is he Johnny Manziel.

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Overall         1026 1497 68.5 14607 9.8 10.6 131 30 175.4
  Texas Tech         218 340 64.1 2315 6.8 6.3 12 9 127.7
  Oklahoma         808 1157 69.8 12292 10.6 11.9 119 21 189.
*2013 Texas Tech Big 12   QB 8 218 340 64.1 2315 6.8 6.3 12 9 127.7
*2015 Oklahoma Big 12 JR QB 13 269 395 68.1 3700 9.4 10.4 36 7 173.3
*2016 Oklahoma Big 12 JR QB 13 254 358 70.9 3965 11.1 12.3 40 8 196.4
*2017 Oklahoma Big 12 SR QB 14 285 404 70.5 4627 11.5 12.9 43 6 198.9

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44 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

My thoughts

 

GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN

GET TO 2 DRAFT ROSEN

I'm just not feeling the Rosen over Jackson. I equate this to the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan scenario. You don't draft the person the prognosticators consider the "safe" pick, you draft the "best" player. In every game he played, Lamar Jackson was considered the best player on the field, period. Jordan was the "athlete" in college that became the greatest bball player ever. Bowie was the "safe" pick that ended up a bust. Let's not let history repeat itself in Buffalo.

8 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Mayfield resume:  Completion percentage & td's to int's  Very impressive!!    OR is he Johnny Manziel.

  •  
    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Overall         1026 1497 68.5 14607 9.8 10.6 131 30 175.4
  Texas Tech         218 340 64.1 2315 6.8 6.3 12 9 127.7
  Oklahoma         808 1157 69.8 12292 10.6 11.9 119 21 189.
*2013 Texas Tech Big 12   QB 8 218 340 64.1 2315 6.8 6.3 12 9 127.7
*2015 Oklahoma Big 12 JR QB 13 269 395 68.1 3700 9.4 10.4 36 7 173.3
*2016 Oklahoma Big 12 JR QB 13 254 358 70.9 3965 11.1 12.3 40 8 196.4
*2017 Oklahoma Big 12 SR QB 14 285 404 70.5 4627 11.5 12.9 43 6 198.9

How is Jackson at 6'2 7/8" too short to play QB, but Mayfield isn't? 

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Josh Rosen Numbers:  Why is he considered a top QB?  Maybe he was on a terrible team?  Terrible completion percentage!

 

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2015 UCLA Pac-12 FR QB 13 292 487 60.0 3669 7.5 7.5 23 11 134.3
2016 UCLA Pac-12 SO QB 6 137 231 59.3 1915 8.3 8.2 10 5 138.9
*2017 UCLA Pac-12 JR QB 11 283 452 62.6 3756 8.3 8.5 26 10 147.0

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15 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Josh Rosen Numbers:  Why is he considered a top QB?  Maybe he was on a terrible team?  Terrible completion percentage!

 

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2015 UCLA Pac-12 FR QB 13 292 487 60.0 3669 7.5 7.5 23 11 134.3
2016 UCLA Pac-12 SO QB 6 137 231 59.3 1915 8.3 8.2 10 5 138.9
*2017 UCLA Pac-12 JR QB 11 283 452 62.6 3756 8.3 8.5 26 10 147.0

 

Because Stats are not the end all be all.  there is a thing called watching the player

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25 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

What makes everyone think that you need to move up and take a QB? 

Since 2013, the best QB in the draft was not taken first. In most cases, the team didn't move up to get him (although Philly did move up to take Carson Wentz, still to this point the best total numbers for his draft year arguably belong to a 4th round pick). Most often the best QB was taken down the line. Carr, Prescott, Watson, even Geno Smith was the best guy in his draft and he was taken in the 2nd round.

In a year where the consensus seems to be "they all have warts", it seems the reasonable thing to do would be to position yourself properly and let things play out. Just sayin'.
 

 

Why do we need to move up?

Well, first of all, there are several QB-needy teams sitting in front of us (Cleveland, Denver, New York, Miami) or directly behind us (Arizona).  If we sit in our current spot, we could realistically miss out on the Top 4-5 prospects.

 

Second, this draft has some of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 5 years.  Saying they have "flaws" or "warts" is just lazy, and can be said about virtually every QB prospect that has ever existed.  This isn't the 2013 class, where everyone available was should have gone 2nd Round earliest.  Both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would get serious #1 consideration in most drafts.

 

Finally, let's actually go back and look at the drafts since 2013, because I don't believe you are remembering them correctly.

2017 is too early to make a judgement call on.  Mahomes played one game.  Watson was hurt half the season.  Trubisky was a rookie on a terrible team.

 

2016 - Best prospects were considered Goff and Wentz.  They went #1-2, and by their sophomore seasons were easily the best QBs out of that class.  Prescott was really good as a rookie, but slumped in Year 2 without the fantastic O-Line and running game.  Outside of Prescott, nobody else drafted has been better than a backup.  So 13 quarterbacks were drafted after the #2 pick and only one has been good.  Not odds I like betting on.

 

2015 - Best prospects were considered Winston and Mariota.  They went #1-2 and are easily the best QBs drafted that year.  Everyone else has been backup level at best.  If you wanted a QB this year, you needed to get one of these two guys.

 

2014 - Best prospect in a very weak class was considered Bortles, with a bunch of other guys considered late 1st Round/early 2nd Rounds.  Best QB has been Derek Carr, who has been inconsistent.  Teddy Bridgewater was OK (overrated) and then got hurt.  And no, I'm not counting Jimmy G until he actually plays a full season as a starter.  Nobody outside of the 2nd Round has done anything.

 

2013 - Everyone said the QB class was terrible, and sure enough, every QB was terrible. 

 

 

If you notice, there is a trend.

Most years, there are 1-2 really strong QB prospects.  Those guys always go in the Top 3, and usually end up as the best guys out of the draft class by far.  In my opinion, both Darnold and Rosen fit that mold in this year's class.

After the really strong guys, there are usually 3-5 guys with high upside, but certain traits that make them riskier bets.  This year's examples would by Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mason Rudolph.  These guys are more hit-and-miss. 

The problem is, sometimes you have years like 2013-2014 where the "secondary guys" are the only thing available.  That is when you get the Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel overdrafts who are outplayed by guys later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I'm just not feeling the Rosen over Jackson. I equate this to the Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan scenario. You don't draft the person the prognosticators consider the "safe" pick, you draft the "best" player. In every game he played, Lamar Jackson was considered the best player on the field, period. Jordan was the "athlete" in college that became the greatest bball player ever. Bowie was the "safe" pick that ended up a bust. Let's not let history repeat itself in Buffalo.

How is Jackson at 6'2 7/8" too short to play QB, but Mayfield isn't? 

 

Jackson is my 4th best prospect.

 

There are some BIG Issues with his mechanics, he really should have stayed in school. But I grade him higher than Josh Allen so there is that

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Josh Rosen Numbers:  Why is he considered a top QB?  Maybe he was on a terrible team?  Terrible completion percentage!

 

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2015 UCLA Pac-12 FR QB 13 292 487 60.0 3669 7.5 7.5 23 11 134.3
2016 UCLA Pac-12 SO QB 6 137 231 59.3 1915 8.3 8.2 10 5 138.9
*2017 UCLA Pac-12 JR QB 11 283 452 62.6 3756 8.3 8.5 26 10 147.0

 

 

To me completion percentage is telling of the entire offense as a whole.  It doesn't necessarily measure accuracy.  Sometimes QB's are not very accurate at all but they get bailed out by WR's/TEs.  Let me give you a good example.  Joe Flacco.  As of today, his completion percentage has climbed every year and is up considerably from four years ago.  But if you look at him play, he's as inaccurate as he's always been.  So completion percentage can be a bit misleading.  This is also why I do not want anything to do with Josh Allen.  When you combine low completion percentage and watching him miss targets because he doesn't have touch, and ball placement is erratic, it's a recipe for disaster.

 

So when I look at completion percentage, I'm looking at the offense as a whole.  When I'm looking at accuracy I'm looking at the QB specifically.  Does he have touch, is his ball placement good?  Is his anticipation good?

Edited by NewEraBills

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3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Jackson is my 4th best prospect.

 

There are some BIG Issues with his mechanics, he really should have stayed in school. But I grade him higher than Josh Allen so there is that

He's gonna WOW his critics at his Pro day. That's why there's rumors the Bills wanna jump in front of Jets.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He's gonna WOW his critics at his Pro day. That's why there's rumors the Bills wanna jump in front of Jets.

4th best QB Prospect.  Throwing against AIR will not change how I see him.  there are major mechanics issues with him and he should have stayed in school

Edited by MAJBobby

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32 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Why do we need to move up?

Well, first of all, there are several QB-needy teams sitting in front of us (Cleveland, Denver, New York, Miami) or directly behind us (Arizona).  If we sit in our current spot, we could realistically miss out on the Top 4-5 prospects.

 

Second, this draft has some of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 5 years.  Saying they have "flaws" or "warts" is just lazy, and can be said about virtually every QB prospect that has ever existed.  This isn't the 2013 class, where everyone available was should have gone 2nd Round earliest.  Both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would get serious #1 consideration in most drafts.

 

Finally, let's actually go back and look at the drafts since 2013, because I don't believe you are remembering them correctly.

2017 is too early to make a judgement call on.  Mahomes played one game.  Watson was hurt half the season.  Trubisky was a rookie on a terrible team.

 

2016 - Best prospects were considered Goff and Wentz.  They went #1-2, and by their sophomore seasons were easily the best QBs out of that class.  Prescott was really good as a rookie, but slumped in Year 2 without the fantastic O-Line and running game.  Outside of Prescott, nobody else drafted has been better than a backup.  So 13 quarterbacks were drafted after the #2 pick and only one has been good.  Not odds I like betting on.

 

2015 - Best prospects were considered Winston and Mariota.  They went #1-2 and are easily the best QBs drafted that year.  Everyone else has been backup level at best.  If you wanted a QB this year, you needed to get one of these two guys.

 

2014 - Best prospect in a very weak class was considered Bortles, with a bunch of other guys considered late 1st Round/early 2nd Rounds.  Best QB has been Derek Carr, who has been inconsistent.  Teddy Bridgewater was OK (overrated) and then got hurt.  And no, I'm not counting Jimmy G until he actually plays a full season as a starter.  Nobody outside of the 2nd Round has done anything.

 

2013 - Everyone said the QB class was terrible, and sure enough, every QB was terrible. 

 

 

If you notice, there is a trend.

Most years, there are 1-2 really strong QB prospects.  Those guys always go in the Top 3, and usually end up as the best guys out of the draft class by far.  In my opinion, both Darnold and Rosen fit that mold in this year's class.

After the really strong guys, there are usually 3-5 guys with high upside, but certain traits that make them riskier bets.  This year's examples would by Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and possibly Mason Rudolph.  These guys are more hit-and-miss. 

The problem is, sometimes you have years like 2013-2014 where the "secondary guys" are the only thing available.  That is when you get the Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel overdrafts who are outplayed by guys later.

 

 

 

 

 

 


The Jets now have two QBs. 
Denver just committed $36MM to Case Keenum and are not desperate as they once were.
Arizona is behind us, which leaves Miami. It is entirely possible that only 2 QBs are drafted in front of us. 

2017: You're nuts or in serious denial. DeShaun Watson was playing at an MVP level before being injured. 

2016: Prescott has arguably outplayed Wentz; he's DEFINITELY outplayed Goff; so your truly, truly splitting hairs here. Prescott was picked in the 4th round and the leading case for my argument.

2015: I missed this year, and it is a point in your favor.

2014: I might be wrong, but the two best QBs ranked were picked 1-2, Manziel and Bortles. Carr was taken in the 2nd round, as was Garafolo.

2013: Smith and EJM both considered the best of a bad lot. But again, the second one taken and taken in the 2nd round was best.

Here's what I notice: that the ranking is what you should avoid. Teams gave up tons to get the likes of Trubisky, Mahomes, Bortles, Manziel, Sanchez, Locker, Gabbert. Hell, all the twisting and turning over the two can't miss guys between Rivers and Manning and the best of them all was taken in the second round. I can't recall if anyone twisted themselves to get to the can't miss prospects of Leinart and Young - I do know Bills fans were ALL over themselves because we didn't reach to get Leinart - and Jay Cutler delivered more over his career.  1-2 of Luck and Griffin, and one team RUINED itself over that trade. Of course, leaving behind the 4th round Wilson.

Trading up to get the guy is more often than not a mistake, especially at QB. Al. Most. Al.Ways.
 

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